Issued 2026-09-16 at $7.03 · now $7.03 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, OPFI has typically landed between $5.29 and $9.37 — a range of −24.7% to +33.3% from the issuance price $7.03.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
1,439 overlapping 1 month windows · 2020-11-20 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($7.03) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where OPFI has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $7.03 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $7.03 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $6.97 (-0.9%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $6.18–$7.75
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $5.29–$9.37
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 1,439 windows spanning 2020-11-20 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2025-02-07 | −45.6% | −46.6% | +0.0% |
| 2025-02-06 | −44.7% | −44.7% | +3.5% |
| 2021-07-26 | −41.1% | −43.5% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2025-01-07 | +134.6% | +0.0% | +134.6% |
| 2025-01-06 | +116.4% | −4.5% | +116.4% |
| 2024-12-24 | +88.6% | −1.8% | +88.6% |
1,439 overlapping windows · 2020-11-20 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~6 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
67%
+9.0%
n=6
Feb
17%
−10.0%
n=6
Mar
17%
−9.5%
n=6
Apr
50%
+2.9%
n=6
May
67%
+12.5%
n=6
Jun
67%
+4.0%
n=6
Jul
33%
−4.0%
n=6
Aug
33%
−1.4%
n=6
Sep
33%
−2.1%
n=6
Oct
20%
−7.5%
n=5
Nov
80%
+21.2%
n=5
Dec
50%
+3.8%
n=6
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-14 | Schwartz Todd G. | director | Purchase | 1,940 @ $7.80 | $15K | +0.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 641,898 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-11 | Johnson Pamela D. | officer | Sale | 8,650 @ $8.02 | $69K | −5.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 151,039 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-11 | Schwartz Todd G. | director | Purchase | 3,300 @ $7.96 | $26K | +0.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 639,958 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-10 | Schwartz Todd G. | director | Purchase | 3,350 @ $7.56 | $25K | +0.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 636,658 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-09 | Schwartz Todd G. | director | Purchase | 3,450 @ $7.59 | $26K | +0.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 633,308 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-08 | Schwartz Todd G. | director | Purchase | 3,475 @ $7.41 | $26K | +0.6% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 629,858 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-04 | Schwartz Todd G. | director | Purchase | 3,500 @ $7.35 | $26K | +0.6% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 626,383 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-03 | Schwartz Todd G. | director | Purchase | 3,450 @ $7.33 | $25K | +0.6% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 622,883 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-02 | Schwartz Todd G. | director | Purchase | 3,550 @ $7.15 | $25K | +0.6% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 619,433 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-01 | Schwartz Todd G. | director | Purchase | 3,550 @ $6.91 | $25K | +0.6% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 615,883 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-31 | Schwartz Todd G. | director | Purchase | 3,550 @ $6.93 | $25K | +0.6% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 612,333 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-28 | Schwartz Todd G. | director | Purchase | 3,500 @ $7.15 | $25K | +0.6% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 608,783 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-27 | Schwartz Todd G. | director | Purchase | 3,550 @ $7.13 | $25K | +0.6% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 605,283 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-26 | McKay Christopher J. | officer | Sale | 77,850 @ $7.18 | $559K | −5.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,431,479 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-26 | Schwartz Todd G. | director | Purchase | 3,500 @ $7.19 | $25K | +0.6% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 601,733 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-25 | Schwartz Todd G. | director | Purchase | 3,475 @ $7.25 | $25K | +0.6% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 598,233 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-24 | Schwartz Todd G. | director | Purchase | 3,475 @ $7.15 | $25K | +0.6% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 594,758 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-21 | Schwartz Todd G. | director | Purchase | 3,550 @ $7.07 | $25K | +0.6% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 591,283 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-20 | Schwartz Todd G. | director | Purchase | 3,450 @ $7.13 | $25K | +0.6% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 587,733 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-19 | Vennettilli David | director | Sale | 28,485 @ $7.16 | $204K | −15.6% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 154,434 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-19 | Schwartz Todd G. | director | Purchase | 3,500 @ $7.16 | $25K | +0.6% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 584,283 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-18 | Schwartz Todd G. | director | Purchase | 3,550 @ $7.04 | $25K | +0.6% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 580,783 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-17 | Schwartz Todd G. | director | Purchase | 3,500 @ $7.00 | $25K | +0.6% of holding | +2.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 577,233 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-14 | Schwartz Todd G. | director | Purchase | 20,000 @ $7.20 | $144K | +3.6% of holding | +3.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 573,733 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-13 | Schwartz Todd G. | director | Purchase | 60,000 @ $7.13 | $428K | +12.2% of holding | +11.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 553,733 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-12 | Schwartz Todd G. | director | Purchase | 60,000 @ $7.05 | $423K | +13.8% of holding | +17.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 493,733 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-06-15 | Moore Jocelyn | director | Sale | 39,076 @ $8.32 | $325K | −69.9% of holding | +14.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 16,843 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-12 | McKay Christopher J. | officer | Sale | 23,683 @ $8.35 | $198K | −1.5% of holding | +8.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,513,063 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-08 | Favilla Christina M | director | Sale | 30,000 @ $8.14 | $244K | −16.1% of holding | +16.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 156,737 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-04 | Vennettilli David | director | Sale | 10,000 @ $10.00 | $100K | −7.0% of holding | −22.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 132,389 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-12 | Moore Jocelyn | director | Sale | 8,190 @ $8.53 | $70K | −17.3% of holding | −2.8% | −19.2% | 39,076 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-05 | Johnson Pamela D. | officer | Sale | 5,084 @ $10.24 | $52K | −3.4% of holding | −13.1% | −22.4% | 143,484 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-11 | Moore Jocelyn | director | Sale | 4,464 @ $10.91 | $49K | −8.6% of holding | −9.1% | −34.9% | 47,266 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-21 | Moore Jocelyn | director | Sale | 20,200 @ $9.23 | $186K | −28.1% of holding | +14.7% | −22.9% | 51,730 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-03 | Johnson Pamela D. | officer | Sale | 1,129 @ $10.00 | $11K | −0.7% of holding | +0.9% | −11.0% | 153,392 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-03 | McKay Christopher J. | officer | Sale | 1,107 @ $9.85 | $11K | −0.6% of holding | +0.9% | −11.0% | 171,022 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-02 | McKay Christopher J. | officer | Sale | 9,030 @ $11.21 | $101K | −5.0% of holding | −11.1% | −26.5% | 172,129 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-10-02 | Johnson Pamela D. | officer | Sale | 5,497 @ $11.21 | $62K | −3.4% of holding | −11.1% | −26.5% | 154,521 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-13 | SCHWARTZ THEODORE G | director | Sale | 29,809 @ $10.78 | $321K | −100.0% of holding | +0.2% | −24.4% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-13 | SCHWARTZ THEODORE G | director | Sale | 14,907 @ $10.78 | $161K | −100.0% of holding | +0.2% | −24.4% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-12 | SCHWARTZ THEODORE G | director | Sale | 68,213 @ $10.80 | $736K | −100.0% of holding | −5.4% | −25.9% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-12 | SCHWARTZ THEODORE G | director | Sale | 34,112 @ $10.80 | $368K | −100.0% of holding | −5.4% | −25.9% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-11 | SCHWARTZ THEODORE G | director | Sale | 68,637 @ $11.08 | $761K | −100.0% of holding | −9.1% | −25.4% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-11 | SCHWARTZ THEODORE G | director | Sale | 34,322 @ $11.08 | $380K | −100.0% of holding | −9.1% | −25.4% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-04 | Johnson Pamela D. | officer | Sale | 1,130 @ $10.43 | $12K | −0.7% of holding | −3.4% | −20.6% | 163,440 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-04 | McKay Christopher J. | officer | Sale | 1,106 @ $10.43 | $12K | −0.6% of holding | −3.4% | −20.6% | 184,260 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-07-14 | SCHWARTZ THEODORE G | director | Sale | 85,467 @ $12.05 | $1.0M | −100.0% of holding | −12.7% | −27.5% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-07-14 | SCHWARTZ THEODORE G | director | Sale | 42,721 @ $12.05 | $515K | −100.0% of holding | −12.7% | −27.5% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-07-11 | SCHWARTZ THEODORE G | director | Sale | 79,069 @ $12.68 | $1.0M | −97.4% of holding | −13.1% | −27.3% | 2,139 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-07-11 | SCHWARTZ THEODORE G | director | Sale | 39,534 @ $12.68 | $501K | −97.4% of holding | −13.1% | −27.3% | 1,070 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-07-11 | SCHWARTZ THEODORE G | director | Sale | 2,139 @ $13.30 | $28K | −100.0% of holding | −13.1% | −27.3% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-07-11 | SCHWARTZ THEODORE G | director | Sale | 1,070 @ $13.30 | $14K | −100.0% of holding | −13.1% | −27.3% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-07-02 | McKay Christopher J. | officer | Sale | 9,030 @ $13.41 | $121K | −4.6% of holding | −23.2% | −33.1% | 185,366 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-07-02 | Johnson Pamela D. | officer | Sale | 5,495 @ $13.41 | $74K | −3.2% of holding | −23.2% | −33.1% | 164,570 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-06-17 | SCHWARTZ THEODORE G | director | Sale | 81,687 @ $11.81 | $964K | −100.0% of holding | −7.9% | −22.5% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-06-17 | SCHWARTZ THEODORE G | director | Sale | 40,844 @ $11.81 | $482K | −100.0% of holding | −7.9% | −22.5% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-06-16 | SCHWARTZ THEODORE G | director | Sale | 60,114 @ $12.41 | $746K | −100.0% of holding | −9.8% | −26.9% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-16 | SCHWARTZ THEODORE G | director | Sale | 30,058 @ $12.41 | $373K | −100.0% of holding | −9.8% | −26.9% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-13 | SCHWARTZ THEODORE G | director | Sale | 64,632 @ $12.24 | $791K | −100.0% of holding | −8.6% | −24.0% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-13 | SCHWARTZ THEODORE G | director | Sale | 32,316 @ $12.24 | $396K | −100.0% of holding | −8.6% | −24.0% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
214 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-01 | Schwartz Todd G. | director | Withheld for tax | 4,497 | 301,710 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Schwartz Todd G. | director | Withheld for tax | 2,643 | 306,207 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Johnson Pamela D. | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,974 | 161,900 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | McKay Christopher J. | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,969 | 1,511,094 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Johnson Pamela D. | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,715 | 160,185 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | McKay Christopher J. | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,369 | 1,509,725 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Johnson Pamela D. | officer | Withheld for tax | 496 | 159,689 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | McKay Christopher J. | officer | Withheld for tax | 396 | 1,509,329 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-09 | Favilla Christina M | director | Award / grant | 16,843 | 29,750 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-09 | Moore Jocelyn | director | Award / grant | 16,843 | 55,919 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-09 | SCHWARTZ THEODORE G | director | Award / grant | 16,843 | 29,750 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-09 | Vennettilli David | director | Award / grant | 25,265 | 157,654 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-09 | Zeeman Gregory T | director | Award / grant | 16,843 | 166,487 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-09 | Vennettilli David | director | Award / grant | 25,265 | 182,919 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-04 | Johnson Pamela D. | officer | Withheld for tax | 469 | 163,874 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-04 | McKay Christopher J. | officer | Withheld for tax | 357 | 1,536,746 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-28 | McKay Christopher J. | officer | Award / grant | 1,350,000 | 1,537,103 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-28 | McKay Christopher J. | officer | Disposition | 1,350,000 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-28 | SCHWARTZ THEODORE G | director | Disposition | 18,887,359 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-28 | SCHWARTZ THEODORE G | director | Disposition | 3,000,000 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-28 | SCHWARTZ THEODORE G | director | Option exercise | 18,887,359 | 18,887,359 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-28 | SCHWARTZ THEODORE G | director | Option exercise | 3,000,000 | 3,000,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-28 | SCHWARTZ THEODORE G | director | Option exercise | 18,887,359 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-28 | SCHWARTZ THEODORE G | director | Option exercise | 3,000,000 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-28 | Schwartz Todd G. | director | Disposition | 54,137,072 | 4,501,169 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-28 | Schwartz Todd G. | director | Option exercise | 24,656,083 | 24,656,083 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-28 | Schwartz Todd G. | director | Option exercise | 1,949,309 | 1,949,309 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-28 | Schwartz Todd G. | director | Disposition | 4,501,169 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-28 | Schwartz Todd G. | director | Option exercise | 24,656,083 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-28 | Schwartz Todd G. | director | Option exercise | 1,949,309 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-28 | Vennettilli David | director | Disposition | 284,501 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-28 | Vennettilli David | director | Option exercise | 284,501 | 284,501 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-28 | Vennettilli David | director | Option exercise | 284,501 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-20 | Schwartz Todd G. | director | Disposition | 50,000 | 58,638,241 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-02 | Schwartz Todd G. | director | Withheld for tax | 17,987 | 308,850 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-02 | Schwartz Todd G. | director | Withheld for tax | 2,643 | 326,837 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-02 | Johnson Pamela D. | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,984 | 164,343 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-02 | Johnson Pamela D. | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,974 | 168,042 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-02 | McKay Christopher J. | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,970 | 190,055 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-02 | Johnson Pamela D. | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,715 | 166,327 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.