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A 20-minute guide, in order, for reading anything on this site honestly. Each lesson is one screen. You can stop and pick up where you left off.

1. 1How to read a price chartThe line is history, not a forecast.
2. 2Why ranges, not targetsA single number pretends to a precision no one has.
3. 3How to read the coneWidening bands are uncertainty growing with time, drawn honestly.
4. 4What a base rate isHow often this kind of situation has resolved up, before anything stock-specific.
5. 5What calibration provesOf all the times we said six-in-ten, did about six in ten happen?
6. 6Confidence and sample sizeWhy we count overlapping forecasts as less than they look.
7. 7Why we rejected momentumWe tested the popular ones. They did not beat the base rate.
8. 8The verifiable ledgerEvery forecast is written once and can be independently re-checked.
9. 9Crypto: ranges onlyWe publish distribution ranges for coins, but no directional probability.
10. 10Reading finfluencer picksWhat a scored record is, and why screenshots are not evidence.

These lessons explain how forecasts are made, scored, and what is and isn’t claimed — never advice about what to do with them. The full record and methods are on the methodology page.