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Crypto: ranges only

For crypto we ran the same honest test. The distribution ranges held up — the nine-in-ten drawdown and rise bands landed where they were meant to. But the monthly direction did not prove calibratable out of sample: the base rate did not predict the forward up-rate.

So crypto pages show the ranges we can stand behind and plainly say we do not publish a monthly direction. That is the honest version of covering an asset class we cannot forecast directionally.

The same discipline that lets us publish a probability for stocks is what stops us from publishing one for coins.

See also: cryptoThe crypto-majors record — distribution ranges only; crypto's monthly direction has not proven calibratable, so no directional probability is published., calibrationWhether our probabilities match reality — of all the times we said an outcome was, say, three-in-five likely, did about three in five actually happen?