Start here · Lesson 3 of 10

How to read the cone

The shaded cone is the range of outcomes, drawn forward in time. It starts narrow and widens because the further out you look, the less certain anything is. That widening is the point, not a flaw.

The line down the middle is the typical outcome. The inner shade is where half of similar past periods landed; the outer shade is the wider nine-in-ten band. The cone is anchored at the price on the day the forecast was made, which never changes afterward.

If the cone looks wide, that is the honest picture — it means similar past setups ended in a broad spread. A tool that draws you a thin, confident line is hiding that spread.

See also: p90A nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds., iqrThe central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below., basis priceThe price on the day a forecast was made — the fixed anchor every range and result is measured against.