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Why ranges, not targets

A lot of tools give you one number — a place a stock is 'going.' That number hides everything that matters: how sure anyone is, and how wide the real spread of outcomes is.

We publish a range instead. The middle of it is the typical outcome of many similar past periods; the band around it shows how spread out those outcomes were. Half of similar past periods landed inside the inner band; about nine in ten stayed inside the wider one.

A range is honest because it carries its own uncertainty. A single number quietly throws that away — so we never publish one.

See also: typical moveThe median change over the period — the middle outcome of many similar past periods., iqrThe central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below., p90A nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds.