Issued 2026-09-25 at $5.36 · now $5.36 (2026-09-25, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-25 close, UPB has typically landed between $3.43 and $7.27 — a range of −36.1% to +35.7% from the issuance price $5.36.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
469 overlapping 1 month windows · 2024-10-11 – 2026-08-26 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Base rate up 53.7% (90% CI 51.5–55.9%, ≈1,391 obs). Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-25 issuance close ($5.36) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-26, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where UPB has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-25 close of $5.36 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $5.36 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $5.44 (+1.5%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $4.48–$6.4
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $3.43–$7.27
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2026-01-30 | −76.3% | −76.3% | +0.0% |
| 2026-01-27 | −75.7% | −76.2% | +0.0% |
| 2026-01-29 | −75.1% | −75.2% | +0.5% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2025-07-17 | +71.5% | −3.6% | +71.5% |
| 2025-07-16 | +70.5% | −2.6% | +70.5% |
| 2025-07-18 | +68.1% | −0.7% | +76.6% |
469 overlapping windows · 2024-10-11 – 2026-09-25 · not cherry-picked
Pending catalysts
- September 2027 — Trial primary completion: Phase 2 primary completion: A Long-Term Safety and Efficacy Study of Verekitug (UPB-101) in Adult Participants With Severe Asthma (VALOUR) (source, as of 2026-08-14)
- October 2027 — Trial primary completion: Phase 2 primary completion: A Study to Assess the Efficacy and Safety of Verekitug in Participants With COPD (source, as of 2026-08-14)
Public, scheduled events — dated attention, not a prediction of the outcome. See the FDA catalysts page for the historical base rate.
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~2 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-16 | Sutherland Everett Rand | director | Sale | 2,095 @ $5.49 | $12K | −3.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 68,717 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-16 | Deykin Aaron | officer | Sale | 895 @ $5.49 | $5K | −2.7% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 32,302 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-16 | GRAY MICHAEL | officer | Sale | 853 @ $5.49 | $5K | −3.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 27,942 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-16 | Houghton Adam | officer | Sale | 700 @ $5.49 | $4K | −3.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 22,901 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-16 | Ambrose Allison | officer | Sale | 485 @ $5.49 | $3K | −3.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 15,563 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-16 | Sutherland Everett Rand | director | Sale | 2,095 @ $6.10 | $13K | −2.9% of holding | +19.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 70,812 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-16 | Deykin Aaron | officer | Sale | 895 @ $6.10 | $5K | −2.6% of holding | +19.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 33,197 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-16 | GRAY MICHAEL | officer | Sale | 853 @ $6.10 | $5K | −2.9% of holding | +19.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 28,795 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-16 | Houghton Adam | officer | Sale | 700 @ $6.10 | $4K | −2.9% of holding | +19.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 23,601 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-16 | Ambrose Allison | officer | Sale | 477 @ $6.10 | $3K | −2.9% of holding | +19.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 16,048 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-16 | Sutherland Everett Rand | director | Sale | 2,093 @ $9.29 | $19K | −2.8% of holding | −2.1% | −56.5% | 72,907 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-16 | Deykin Aaron | officer | Sale | 894 @ $9.29 | $8K | −2.7% of holding | −2.1% | −56.5% | 32,687 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-16 | GRAY MICHAEL | officer | Sale | 852 @ $9.29 | $8K | −2.8% of holding | −2.1% | −56.5% | 29,648 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-16 | Houghton Adam | officer | Sale | 699 @ $9.29 | $6K | −2.8% of holding | −2.1% | −56.5% | 24,301 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-16 | Ambrose Allison | officer | Sale | 475 @ $9.29 | $4K | −2.8% of holding | −2.1% | −56.5% | 16,525 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2024-10-15 | AI Upstream LLC | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 1,175,000 @ $17.00 | $20.0M | ownership Δ n/a | +9.6% | −53.2% | 1,175,000 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2024-10-15 | ORBIMED ADVISORS LLC | director | Purchase | 660,000 @ $17.00 | $11.2M | +16.9% of holding | +9.6% | −53.2% | 4,554,873 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2024-10-15 | Chimovits Erez | director | Purchase | 660,000 @ $17.00 | $11.2M | +16.9% of holding | +9.6% | −53.2% | 4,554,873 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2024-10-15 | ORBIMED ADVISORS LLC | director | Purchase | 165,000 @ $17.00 | $2.8M | +16.9% of holding | +9.6% | −53.2% | 1,138,716 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2024-10-15 | Chimovits Erez | director | Purchase | 165,000 @ $17.00 | $2.8M | +16.9% of holding | +9.6% | −53.2% | 1,138,716 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
103 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-09 | Ruddy Marcella K. | director | Award / grant | 17,096 | 17,096 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-09 | Chimovits Erez | director | Award / grant | 17,096 | 17,096 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-09 | Fleming Harold Edward | director | Award / grant | 17,096 | 17,096 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-09 | Ratcliffe Liam | director | Award / grant | 17,096 | 17,096 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-09 | Renaud Ronald C JR | director | Award / grant | 17,096 | 17,096 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-09 | Beckman Daniella | director | Award / grant | 17,096 | 17,096 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-02 | Ambrose Allison | officer | Award / grant | 17,000 | 17,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-02 | Deykin Aaron | officer | Award / grant | 32,000 | 33,581 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-02 | Deykin Aaron | officer | Award / grant | 96,000 | 96,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-02 | Ambrose Allison | officer | Award / grant | 51,000 | 51,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-02 | Sutherland Everett Rand | director | Award / grant | 75,000 | 75,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-02 | Sutherland Everett Rand | director | Award / grant | 225,000 | 225,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-02 | GRAY MICHAEL | officer | Award / grant | 30,500 | 30,500 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-02 | GRAY MICHAEL | officer | Award / grant | 91,500 | 91,500 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-02 | Houghton Adam | officer | Award / grant | 25,000 | 25,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-02 | Houghton Adam | officer | Award / grant | 75,000 | 75,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-10 | Ruddy Marcella K. | director | Award / grant | 17,096 | 17,096 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-10 | Renaud Ronald C JR | director | Award / grant | 17,096 | 17,096 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-10 | Ratcliffe Liam | director | Award / grant | 17,096 | 17,096 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-10 | Chimovits Erez | director | Award / grant | 17,096 | 17,096 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-10 | Beckman Daniella | director | Award / grant | 17,096 | 17,096 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-10 | Fleming Harold Edward | director | Award / grant | 17,096 | 17,096 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-06 | Ambrose Allison | officer | Award / grant | 25,000 | 25,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-06 | Deykin Aaron | officer | Award / grant | 165,000 | 165,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-06 | Sutherland Everett Rand | director | Award / grant | 500,000 | 500,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-06 | GRAY MICHAEL | officer | Award / grant | 195,000 | 195,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-06 | Houghton Adam | officer | Award / grant | 140,000 | 140,000 | Form 4 |
| 2024-12-16 | Ambrose Allison | officer | Award / grant | 100,000 | 100,000 | Form 4 |
| 2024-10-15 | Wellington Biomedical Innovation Master Investors (Cayman) II L.P. | tenPercentOwner | Conversion | 852,940 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2024-10-15 | ORBIMED ADVISORS LLC | director | Conversion | 789,833 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2024-10-15 | Wellington Biomedical Innovation Master Investors (Cayman) II L.P. | tenPercentOwner | Conversion | 894,733 | 894,733 | Form 4 |
| 2024-10-15 | Wellington Biomedical Innovation Master Investors (Cayman) II L.P. | tenPercentOwner | Conversion | 894,733 | 894,733 | Form 4 |
| 2024-10-15 | ORBIMED ADVISORS LLC | director | Conversion | 789,833 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2024-10-15 | ORBIMED ADVISORS LLC | director | Conversion | 721,956 | 973,716 | Form 4 |
| 2024-10-15 | ORBIMED ADVISORS LLC | director | Conversion | 2,887,833 | 3,894,873 | Form 4 |
| 2024-10-15 | ORBIMED ADVISORS LLC | director | Conversion | 524,500 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2024-10-15 | ORBIMED ADVISORS LLC | director | Conversion | 2,098,000 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2024-10-15 | ORBIMED ADVISORS LLC | director | Conversion | 197,456 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2024-10-15 | AI Upstream LLC | tenPercentOwner | Conversion | 3,147,000 | 4,322,000 | Form 4 |
| 2024-10-15 | AI Upstream LLC | tenPercentOwner | Conversion | 1,172,410 | 5,494,410 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.