SHAKShake Shack Inc.Consumer Cyclical · Restaurantsas of 2026-09-17
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-17 at $55.87 · now $55.87 (2026-09-17, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-17 close, SHAK has typically landed between $45.54 and $69.58 — a range of −18.5% to +24.5% from the issuance price $55.87.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

2,904 overlapping 1 month windows · 2015-01-30 – 2026-08-18 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,377 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-17 issuance close ($55.87) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-16, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where SHAK has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-17 close of $55.87 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$45.54worst · -18.5%$69.58best · +24.5%
  • now $55.87 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $55.36 (-0.9%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $50.22–$60.5
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $45.54–$69.58
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 2,904 windows spanning 2015-01-30 to 2026-09-17. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2020-02-13−56.1%−56.1%+3.5%
2020-02-18−55.7%−56.7%+2.2%
2020-02-20−54.6%−57.6%+0.0%
3 best
2020-04-02+60.5%+0.0%+69.4%
2015-04-06+59.1%+0.0%+59.1%
2020-04-01+59.0%+0.0%+71.3%

2,904 overlapping windows · 2015-01-30 – 2026-09-17 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~12 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
64%
+6.4%
n=11
Feb
58%
+5.4%
n=12
Mar
25%
−5.6%
n=12
Apr
58%
+8.1%
n=12
May
67%
+4.4%
n=12
Jun
42%
−0.9%
n=12
Jul
42%
+2.1%
n=12
Aug
33%
+0.5%
n=12
Sep
25%
−5.1%
n=12
Oct
45%
+0.4%
n=11
Nov
73%
+3.2%
n=11
Dec
27%
−3.6%
n=11

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$108$522026-05-15: 9 insider purchases, $3.2M — Meyer Daniel Harris, Silverman Josh, Lynch Robert, Balbale Sumaiya …2026-04-15: 1 insider sale, $26K — Sentell Stephanie Ann2026-03-06: 1 insider sale, $21K — Sentell Stephanie Ann2026-01-20: 1 insider sale, $20K — Sentell Stephanie Ann2025-12-19: 1 insider sale, $17K — Sentell Stephanie Ann2025-11-25: 2 insider sales, $94K — Sentell Stephanie Ann …2025-11: 2 open-market sales, $94K2025-12: 1 open-market sale, $17K2026-01: 1 open-market sale, $20K2026-03: 1 open-market sale, $21K2026-04: 1 open-market sale, $26K2026-05: 9 open-market purchases, $3.2M↑ buys↓ salesdirector Meyer Daniel Harris — Purchase on 2026-05-15, filed 3 days after the tradedirector Silverman Josh — Purchase on 2026-05-15, filed 3 days after the tradedirector Lynch Robert — Purchase on 2026-05-15, filed 3 days after the tradedirector Balbale Sumaiya — Purchase on 2026-05-15, filed 3 days after the tradedirector Chapman Charles J III — Purchase on 2026-05-15, filed 3 days after the tradedirector Flug Jeffrey — Purchase on 2026-05-15, filed 3 days after the tradedirector Chapman Charles J III — Purchase on 2026-05-15, filed 3 days after the tradedirector Chapman Charles J III — Purchase on 2026-05-15, filed 3 days after the tradedirector Silverman Josh — Purchase on 2026-05-15, filed 3 days after the tradeofficer Sentell Stephanie Ann — Sale on 2026-04-15, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Sentell Stephanie Ann — Sale on 2026-03-06, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Sentell Stephanie Ann — Sale on 2026-01-20, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Sentell Stephanie Ann — Sale on 2025-12-19, filed 3 days after the tradeofficer Sentell Stephanie Ann — Sale on 2025-11-25, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Sentell Stephanie Ann — Sale on 2025-11-25, filed 1 day after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-05-15Meyer Daniel HarrisdirectorPurchase32,258 @ $61.88$2.0M+9.3% of holding−1.5%not yet — horizon still open378,670Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-05-15Silverman JoshdirectorPurchase8,190 @ $60.37$494Kownership Δ n/a−1.5%not yet — horizon still open8,190Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-05-15Lynch RobertdirectorPurchase5,000 @ $60.39$302K+6.9% of holding−1.5%not yet — horizon still open77,845Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-05-15Balbale SumaiyadirectorPurchase4,068 @ $61.42$250K+43.6% of holding−1.5%not yet — horizon still open13,407Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-05-15Chapman Charles J IIIdirectorPurchase1,000 @ $61.32$61Kownership Δ n/a−1.5%not yet — horizon still open1,000Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-05-15Flug JeffreydirectorPurchase1,000 @ $61.30$61K+22.4% of holding−1.5%not yet — horizon still open5,470Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-05-15Chapman Charles J IIIdirectorPurchase780 @ $61.43$48Kownership Δ n/a−1.5%not yet — horizon still open780Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-05-15Chapman Charles J IIIdirectorPurchase220 @ $61.32$13Kownership Δ n/a−1.5%not yet — horizon still open220Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-05-15Silverman JoshdirectorPurchase100 @ $61.21$6K+1.2% of holding−1.5%not yet — horizon still open8,290Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-04-15Sentell Stephanie AnnofficerSale258 @ $102.21$26K−1.7% of holding−45.7%not yet — horizon still open15,084Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-03-06Sentell Stephanie AnnofficerSale225 @ $93.60$21K−1.4% of holding+1.0%−40.9%15,342Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-01-20Sentell Stephanie AnnofficerSale200 @ $99.19$20K−2.1% of holding−5.1%−53.3%9,507Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-12-19Sentell Stephanie AnnofficerSale200 @ $85.78$17K−2.0% of holding+6.8%−44.4%9,707Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-11-25Sentell Stephanie AnnofficerSale900 @ $85.03$77K−8.2% of holding−6.3%−38.8%10,107Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-11-25Sentell Stephanie AnnofficerSale200 @ $85.65$17K−2.0% of holding−6.3%−38.8%9,907Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-07-08Fogertey Katherine IrenedirectorSale670 @ $140.03$94K−2.0% of holding−20.8%−47.6%32,495Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-07-07Fogertey Katherine IrenedirectorSale1,243 @ $141.72$176K−3.6% of holding−19.9%−52.0%33,253Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-07-07Fogertey Katherine IrenedirectorSale692 @ $140.40$97K−2.0% of holding−19.9%−52.0%34,496Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-07-07Fogertey Katherine IrenedirectorSale88 @ $142.03$12K−0.3% of holding−19.9%−52.0%33,165Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-07-02Meyer Daniel HarrisdirectorSale14,200 @ $140.31$2.0M−4.0% of holding−21.0%−53.1%337,984Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-07-01Meyer Daniel HarrisdirectorSale6,377 @ $140.01$893K−1.8% of holding−15.4%−54.1%353,007Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-07-01Meyer Daniel HarrisdirectorSale5,200 @ $138.44$720K−1.4% of holding−15.4%−54.1%359,384Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-07-01Meyer Daniel HarrisdirectorSale3,400 @ $137.78$468K−0.9% of holding−15.4%−54.1%364,584Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-07-01Meyer Daniel HarrisdirectorSale823 @ $140.36$116K−0.2% of holding−15.4%−54.1%352,184Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-06-26Meyer Daniel HarrisdirectorSale20,000 @ $140.07$2.8M−5.2% of holding−4.3%−52.0%367,984Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-06-13Fogertey Katherine IrenedirectorSale263 @ $125.15$33K−0.7% of holding+5.8%−47.6%35,259Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-06-13Fogertey Katherine IrenedirectorSale228 @ $124.12$28K−0.6% of holding+5.8%−47.6%35,522Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-06-13Fogertey Katherine IrenedirectorSale71 @ $126.04$9K−0.2% of holding+5.8%−47.6%35,188Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-06-12Fogertey Katherine IrenedirectorSale2,822 @ $127.76$361K−7.3% of holding+3.6%−53.0%35,778Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-06-12Fogertey Katherine IrenedirectorSale1,106 @ $126.80$140K−2.8% of holding+3.6%−53.0%38,600Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-06-12Fogertey Katherine IrenedirectorSale28 @ $128.27$4K−0.1% of holding+3.6%−53.0%35,750Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-06-05Meyer Daniel HarrisdirectorSale10,000 @ $130.26$1.3M−2.5% of holding+3.5%−53.6%386,636Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-05-30Meyer Daniel HarrisdirectorSale10,000 @ $130.10$1.3M−2.5% of holding+1.5%−49.2%396,636Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-05-13Fogertey Katherine IrenedirectorSale180 @ $115.05$21K−0.5% of holding+9.6%−36.0%39,706Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2024-12-12Fogertey Katherine IrenedirectorSale500 @ $135.24$68K−1.6% of holding−11.8%−6.6%30,217Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2024-12-12Fogertey Katherine IrenedirectorSale108 @ $136.05$15K−0.4% of holding−11.8%−6.6%30,109Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2024-12-12Fogertey Katherine IrenedirectorSale34 @ $137.47$5K−0.1% of holding−11.8%−6.6%30,075Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2024-12-11Fogertey Katherine IrenedirectorSale233 @ $137.35$32K−0.7% of holding−10.2%−7.8%31,126Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2024-12-11Fogertey Katherine IrenedirectorSale218 @ $137.34$30K−0.7% of holding−10.2%−7.8%30,820Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2024-12-11Fogertey Katherine IrenedirectorSale103 @ $137.91$14K−0.3% of holding−10.2%−7.8%30,717Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2024-12-11Fogertey Katherine IrenedirectorSale88 @ $137.91$12K−0.3% of holding−10.2%−7.8%31,038Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2024-11-06Meyer Daniel HarrisdirectorSale17,049 @ $131.78$2.2M−4.3% of holding+1.4%−14.4%382,016Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2024-11-06Meyer Daniel HarrisdirectorSale8,581 @ $130.86$1.1M−2.1% of holding+1.4%−14.4%399,065Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2024-11-06Meyer Daniel HarrisdirectorSale1,579 @ $132.44$209K−0.4% of holding+1.4%−14.4%380,437Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2024-11-06Fogertey Katherine IrenedirectorSale160 @ $132.79$21K−0.5% of holding+1.4%−14.4%31,485Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2024-11-06Fogertey Katherine IrenedirectorSale130 @ $132.80$17K−0.4% of holding+1.4%−14.4%31,836Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2024-11-06Fogertey Katherine IrenedirectorSale90 @ $134.33$12K−0.3% of holding+1.4%−14.4%31,359Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2024-11-06Fogertey Katherine IrenedirectorSale81 @ $133.66$11K−0.3% of holding+1.4%−14.4%31,755Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2024-11-06Fogertey Katherine IrenedirectorSale75 @ $134.27$10K−0.2% of holding+1.4%−14.4%31,680Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2024-11-06Fogertey Katherine IrenedirectorSale36 @ $134.03$5K−0.1% of holding+1.4%−14.4%31,449Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2024-11-06Fogertey Katherine IrenedirectorSale35 @ $131.69$5K−0.1% of holding+1.4%−14.4%31,966Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2024-11-06Fogertey Katherine IrenedirectorSale35 @ $131.69$5K−0.1% of holding+1.4%−14.4%31,645Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

47 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-07-15Sentell Stephanie AnnofficerWithheld for tax63914,445Form 4
2026-07-02Pendarvis ChristianedirectorAward / grant2,4802,480Form 4
2026-06-15Hook Michelle GreigofficerAward / grant20,54820,548Form 4
2026-06-10Meyer Daniel HarrisdirectorAward / grant6,3337,792Form 4
2026-06-10LAWRENCE JEFFREY DdirectorAward / grant4,5899,378Form 4
2026-06-10Balbale SumaiyadirectorAward / grant4,49817,905Form 4
2026-06-10Chapman Charles J IIIdirectorAward / grant4,0398,464Form 4
2026-06-10Flug JeffreydirectorAward / grant2,8918,361Form 4
2026-06-10GEORGE LORI AdirectorAward / grant2,7546,274Form 4
2026-06-10Walker TristandirectorAward / grant2,5708,311Form 4
2026-05-23Lynch RobertdirectorWithheld for tax3,68774,158Form 4
2026-05-23Lynch RobertdirectorWithheld for tax2,30571,853Form 4
2026-03-01Lynch RobertdirectorWithheld for tax1,93372,845Form 4
2026-03-01Sentell Stephanie AnnofficerWithheld for tax33715,567Form 4
2026-03-01Shake Shack Inc.officerWithheld for tax173748Form 4
2026-03-01Shake Shack Inc.officerWithheld for tax1514,780Form 4
2026-03-01Shake Shack Inc.officerWithheld for tax132568Form 4
2026-03-01Shake Shack Inc.officerAward / grant1,0594,664Form 4
2026-03-01Sentell Stephanie AnnofficerAward / grant6,39715,904Form 4
2026-03-01Shake Shack Inc.officerAward / grant2674,931Form 4
2026-03-01Lynch RobertdirectorAward / grant26,68574,778Form 4
2026-01-07Meyer Daniel HarrisdirectorOption exercise2,00313,322Form 4
2026-01-07Meyer Daniel HarrisdirectorOption exercise2,0030Form 4
2025-07-15Fogertey Katherine IrenedirectorWithheld for tax2,37830,117Form 4
2025-07-15Sentell Stephanie AnnofficerWithheld for tax64311,007Form 4
2025-06-04LAWRENCE JEFFREY DdirectorAward / grant1,6154,789Form 4
2025-06-04Balbale SumaiyadirectorAward / grant1,5769,339Form 4
2025-06-04Meyer Daniel HarrisdirectorAward / grant1,45812,667Form 4
2025-06-04Silverman JoshdirectorAward / grant1,4589,997Form 4
2025-06-04Chapman Charles J IIIdirectorAward / grant1,4584,425Form 4
2025-06-04Flug JeffreydirectorAward / grant1,1234,470Form 4
2025-06-04GEORGE LORI AdirectorAward / grant1,0443,520Form 4
2025-06-04Walker TristandirectorAward / grant9855,741Form 4
2025-05-23Lynch RobertdirectorWithheld for tax3,69948,093Form 4
2025-05-23Lynch RobertdirectorWithheld for tax2,31251,792Form 4
2025-03-01Fogertey Katherine IrenedirectorWithheld for tax3,56736,298Form 4
2025-03-01Fogertey Katherine IrenedirectorWithheld for tax1,01631,367Form 4
2025-03-01Fogertey Katherine IrenedirectorWithheld for tax1,00732,383Form 4
2025-03-01Fogertey Katherine IrenedirectorWithheld for tax40239,886Form 4
2025-03-01Fogertey Katherine IrenedirectorWithheld for tax35331,014Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.