RILY · TickerCove

RILYBRC Group Holdings, Inc.Financial Services · Financial - Conglomeratesas of 2026-09-16

Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $6.02 · now $6.02 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, RILY has typically landed between $4.11 and $8.42 — a range of −31.7% to +39.8% from the issuance price $6.02.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.

Actual close
Typical path (median)
Middle 50% of outcomes
90% range

4,782 overlapping 1 month windows · 2007-08-13 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($6.02) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

52-week range$6.02 · 33% of range

$3.72 low$10.68 high

Trailing 52 weeks to 2026-09-16 — factual context, not a signal.

Base rate up · monthiClimatology base rate that a US-listed stock rises over a month, with its 90% CI and ≈1,408 effective observations. Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.

53.9%

90% CI 51.7%–56.1%

Distribution · month iiThe price-anchored range: typical move (median), and the p90 downside/upside — 90% of similar periods stayed inside these. Ranges, not a prediction of direction.

−1.9%

typical move · IQR 25.9%

−31.7%worst (p90)+39.8%best (p90)

Insider convictioniOpen-market common-stock purchases by company insiders in the last 90 days (grants and option exercises excluded). Historical tendency, not advice — detail below.

conviction buys

0 open-market sales

Congress disclosuresiRecent disclosed congressional trades for this company. Purchase clusters (≥2 members buying within 90 days) historically preceded a modestly higher forward return (+32 bp/mo in 2022–2026, +45 bp/mo in 2015–2021) — a descriptive tendency, not a forecast input. Detail below.

0 buys · 0 sells · 0 members

cluster tilt persisted, ~halved after 2021

Where RILY has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $6.02 — the range is history, not a prediction.

now $6.02 (+0.0%)
typical $5.9 (-1.9%)
middle 50% $5.12–$6.68
90% range $4.11–$8.42

Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,782 windows spanning 2007-08-13 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.

Start	Return	Max drop	Max rise
3 worst
2011-06-30	−76.8%	−76.8%	+11.2%
2011-07-01	−76.5%	−76.8%	+11.2%
2011-07-06	−75.0%	−75.7%	+16.6%
3 best
2014-05-19	+193.0%	+0.0%	+293.0%
2025-12-15	+155.4%	+0.0%	+155.4%
2014-05-06	+125.7%	−33.2%	+162.6%

4,782 overlapping windows · 2007-08-13 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month i

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.

Jan

79%

+6.4%

n=19

Feb

42%

+1.5%

n=19

Mar

42%

−4.4%

n=19

Apr

68%

+4.2%

n=19

May

68%

+8.6%

n=19

Jun

37%

+0.7%

n=19

Jul

47%

+2.1%

n=19

Aug

37%

−9.8%

n=19

Sep

40%

−1.6%

n=20

Oct

37%

−0.8%

n=19

Nov

63%

+4.8%

n=19

Dec

53%

−0.7%

n=19

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares @ price	Value	Ownership Δ	vs S&P 1m	vs S&P 6m	Owned after	Filing
2026-06-16	RILEY BRYANT R	director	Sale	195,492 @ $9.00	$1.8M	−2.9% of holding	−23.4%	not yet — horizon still open	6,574,236	Form 4 · filed same day
2026-05-14	Forman Alan N	officer	Sale	79,445 @ $8.56	$680K	−67.7% of holding	−2.8%	not yet — horizon still open	37,827	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-05-13	Forman Alan N	officer	Sale	20,555 @ $8.58	$176K	−14.9% of holding	+4.0%	not yet — horizon still open	117,272	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

37 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares	Owned after	Filing
2026-06-30	Forman Alan N	officer	Withheld for tax	2,853	34,974	Form 4
2026-06-16	KELLEHER THOMAS J /ADV	officer	Gift	3,000	899,288	Form 4
2026-04-13	KELLEHER THOMAS J /ADV	officer	Withheld for tax	22,440	70,541	Form 4
2026-04-13	RILEY BRYANT R	director	Withheld for tax	17,059	6,769,728	Form 4
2026-04-13	WEITZMAN HOWARD	officer	Withheld for tax	4,861	53,710	Form 4
2026-04-13	Forman Alan N	officer	Withheld for tax	3,741	137,827	Form 4
2026-04-03	Labran Renee E	director	Award / grant	33,064	58,152	Form 4
2026-04-03	Walters Marian	director	Award / grant	14,695	22,916	Form 4
2026-04-03	Walters Marian	director	Award / grant	33,064	55,980	Form 4
2026-04-03	Walters Marian	director	Award / grant	3,660	8,221	Form 4
2026-04-03	ANTIN ROBERT L	director	Award / grant	3,660	84,155	Form 4
2026-04-03	ANTIN ROBERT L	director	Award / grant	14,695	98,850	Form 4
2026-04-03	ANTIN ROBERT L	director	Award / grant	33,064	131,914	Form 4
2026-04-03	PAULSON RANDALL E	director	Award / grant	14,695	337,334	Form 4
2026-04-03	PAULSON RANDALL E	director	Award / grant	33,064	370,398	Form 4
2026-04-03	PAULSON RANDALL E	director	Award / grant	3,660	322,639	Form 4
2026-04-03	Brandt Tamara Sue	director	Award / grant	3,660	9,855	Form 4
2026-04-03	Brandt Tamara Sue	director	Award / grant	14,695	24,550	Form 4
2026-04-03	Brandt Tamara Sue	director	Award / grant	33,064	57,614	Form 4
2026-04-03	D Agostino Robert P	director	Award / grant	3,660	164,230	Form 4
2026-04-03	D Agostino Robert P	director	Award / grant	14,695	178,925	Form 4
2026-04-03	D Agostino Robert P	director	Award / grant	33,064	211,989	Form 4
2026-04-03	Labran Renee E	director	Award / grant	3,660	10,393	Form 4
2026-04-03	Labran Renee E	director	Award / grant	14,695	25,088	Form 4
2025-06-03	Yessner Scott	officer	Award / grant	100,000	100,000	Form 4
2025-06-02	RILEY BRYANT R	director	Disposition	14,030	6,786,787	Form 4
2025-06-02	KELLEHER THOMAS J /ADV	officer	Disposition	14,030	92,981	Form 4
2025-06-02	Moore Andrew	officer	Disposition	7,349	324,420	Form 4
2025-06-02	Ahn Phillip J.	officer	Disposition	7,349	285,122	Form 4
2025-06-02	Forman Alan N	officer	Disposition	1,373	141,568	Form 4
2025-06-02	WEITZMAN HOWARD	officer	Disposition	915	58,571	Form 4
2025-03-14	KELLEHER THOMAS J /ADV	officer	Disposition	44,109	107,011	Form 4
2025-03-14	RILEY BRYANT R	director	Disposition	44,109	6,800,817	Form 4
2025-03-14	Moore Andrew	officer	Disposition	23,044	331,769	Form 4
2025-03-14	Ahn Phillip J.	officer	Disposition	22,055	292,471	Form 4
2025-03-14	Forman Alan N	officer	Disposition	10,376	142,941	Form 4
2025-03-14	WEITZMAN HOWARD	officer	Disposition	9,556	59,486	Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Resolves in i

28d remaining

2026-09-173% elapsed2026-10-15

Logged immutably 2026-09-17; scored automatically on 2026-10-15 — no edits, ever.

Earnings & context analysis

These panels are being prepared. They are generated by multiple language models, checked, and stored before display — never written live for a page view. Until a model panel has been generated and reviewed for a company, nothing is shown here, honestly, rather than a placeholder.

Calibration i

Every forecast is logged when made and scored when the month is up. The record is shown from the day it starts — young and honest.

How scoring works →

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

Reported insider & political trades

Congressional disclosures

Seasonality · by month i