Issued 2026-09-16 at $4.47 · now $4.47 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, PRLD has typically landed between $3.02 and $6.73 — a range of −32.4% to +50.6% from the issuance price $4.47.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
1,478 overlapping 1 month windows · 2020-09-25 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($4.47) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where PRLD has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $4.47 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $4.47 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $4.32 (-3.3%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $3.55–$5.1
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $3.02–$6.73
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2024-09-10 | −64.7% | −64.9% | +0.0% |
| 2024-09-04 | −63.5% | −63.5% | +3.9% |
| 2024-08-26 | −62.0% | −62.0% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2025-12-02 | +102.2% | +0.0% | +117.8% |
| 2023-10-31 | +95.9% | +0.0% | +113.0% |
| 2025-12-05 | +93.8% | +0.0% | +101.4% |
1,478 overlapping windows · 2020-09-25 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~6 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-21 | BAKER BROS. ADVISORS LP | director | Purchase | 2,137,651 @ $4.44 | $9.5M | +11.9% of holding | −7.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 20,105,994 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-21 | ORBIMED ADVISORS LLC | director | Purchase | 1,689,189 @ $4.44 | $7.5M | +16.7% of holding | −7.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 11,808,945 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-21 | Bonita David P | director | Purchase | 1,689,189 @ $4.44 | $7.5M | +16.7% of holding | −7.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 11,808,945 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-21 | ORBIMED ADVISORS LLC | director | Purchase | 1,126,126 @ $4.44 | $5.0M | ownership Δ n/a | −7.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,126,126 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-21 | Bonita David P | director | Purchase | 1,126,126 @ $4.44 | $5.0M | ownership Δ n/a | −7.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,126,126 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-21 | BAKER BROS. ADVISORS LP | director | Purchase | 114,601 @ $4.44 | $509K | +7.3% of holding | −7.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,678,273 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-03-25 | Vaddi Krishna | director | Purchase | 675,000 @ $0.69 | $467K | +51.0% of holding | +28.9% | +52.7% | 1,999,296 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-25 | Combs Andrew | officer | Purchase | 100,000 @ $0.69 | $69K | +26.3% of holding | +28.9% | +52.7% | 480,123 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-21 | Vaddi Krishna | director | Purchase | 15,000 @ $0.73 | $11K | +1.1% of holding | +38.6% | +23.2% | 1,324,296 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-20 | Vaddi Krishna | director | Purchase | 5,416 @ $0.73 | $4K | +0.4% of holding | +17.3% | +15.3% | 1,309,296 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-17 | Vaddi Krishna | director | Purchase | 9,106 @ $0.75 | $7K | +0.7% of holding | +4.6% | +36.6% | 1,303,880 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-03-14 | Vaddi Krishna | director | Purchase | 29,999 @ $0.75 | $23K | +2.4% of holding | −2.9% | +30.9% | 1,294,774 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-13 | Vaddi Krishna | director | Purchase | 50,000 @ $0.72 | $36K | +4.1% of holding | +3.1% | +39.9% | 1,264,775 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-03-12 | Vaddi Krishna | director | Purchase | 47,500 @ $0.71 | $34K | +4.1% of holding | −2.0% | +55.4% | 1,214,775 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2024-12-31 | Vaddi Krishna | director | Purchase | 5,000 @ $1.21 | $6K | +3.6% of holding | −14.6% | −43.0% | 142,553 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2024-12-30 | Vaddi Krishna | director | Purchase | 10,000 @ $1.20 | $12K | +7.8% of holding | −11.4% | −41.3% | 137,553 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2024-12-23 | Combs Andrew | officer | Purchase | 60,000 @ $1.37 | $82K | +18.9% of holding | −9.7% | −40.7% | 377,623 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2024-12-20 | Combs Andrew | officer | Purchase | 3,075 @ $1.15 | $4K | +1.0% of holding | −9.0% | −38.0% | 317,623 | Form 4 · filed 6 days after the trade |
| 2024-12-19 | Lim Bryant David | officer | Purchase | 25,000 @ $0.91 | $23K | +1041.7% of holding | +24.0% | −8.3% | 27,400 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2024-12-19 | Vaddi Krishna | director | Purchase | 6,888 @ $0.89 | $6K | +5.7% of holding | +24.0% | −8.3% | 127,553 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2024-12-18 | Vaddi Krishna | director | Purchase | 100,000 @ $0.93 | $93K | +9.4% of holding | +25.3% | −7.8% | 1,167,275 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
49 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-09 | Babler Martin | director | Award / grant | 38,000 | 38,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-09 | Bonita David P | director | Award / grant | 38,000 | 38,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-09 | BAKER BROS. ADVISORS LP | director | Award / grant | 38,000 | 38,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-09 | Dorton Katina | director | Award / grant | 38,000 | 38,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-09 | FRIEDMAN PAUL A | director | Award / grant | 38,000 | 38,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-09 | Sandor Victor | director | Award / grant | 38,000 | 38,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | Morris Charles Q | officer | Award / grant | 450,000 | 450,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-27 | RA CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, L.P. | director | Other acquisition | 1,407,000 | 6,475,882 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-27 | RA CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, L.P. | director | Other acquisition | 1,407,000 | 6,475,882 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-27 | RA CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, L.P. | director | Other acquisition | 1,407,000 | 1,407,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-27 | RA CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, L.P. | director | Other acquisition | 1,407,000 | 6,475,882 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-27 | RA CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, L.P. | director | Other acquisition | 1,407,000 | 1,407,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-27 | RA CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, L.P. | director | Other acquisition | 1,407,000 | 1,407,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-27 | RA CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, L.P. | director | Other acquisition | 1,407,000 | 6,475,882 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-27 | RA CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, L.P. | director | Other acquisition | 1,407,000 | 1,407,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-27 | RA CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, L.P. | director | Other acquisition | 1,407,000 | 6,475,882 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-27 | RA CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, L.P. | director | Other acquisition | 1,407,000 | 1,407,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-04 | Vaddi Krishna | director | Award / grant | 837,000 | 837,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-04 | Lim Bryant David | officer | Award / grant | 275,000 | 275,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-04 | Scherle Peggy | officer | Award / grant | 230,000 | 230,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-04 | Combs Andrew | officer | Award / grant | 230,000 | 230,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-05 | Sandor Victor | director | Award / grant | 121,285 | 121,285 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-17 | Dorton Katina | director | Award / grant | 76,000 | 76,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-04 | Huang Jane | director | Withheld for tax | 3,355 | 86,917 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-04 | Huang Jane | director | Option exercise | 9,375 | 18,750 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-04 | Huang Jane | director | Option exercise | 9,375 | 90,272 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-04 | Huang Jane | director | Option exercise | 9,375 | 90,272 | Form 4 |
| 2025-07-04 | Huang Jane | director | Withheld for tax | 3,355 | 80,897 | Form 4 |
| 2025-07-04 | Huang Jane | director | Option exercise | 9,375 | 28,125 | Form 4 |
| 2025-07-04 | Huang Jane | director | Option exercise | 9,375 | 84,252 | Form 4 |
| 2025-07-04 | Huang Jane | director | Option exercise | 9,375 | 84,252 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-12 | BAKER BROS. ADVISORS LP | director | Award / grant | 76,000 | 76,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-12 | Bonita David P | director | Award / grant | 38,000 | 38,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-12 | Dier Mardi | director | Award / grant | 38,000 | 38,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-12 | Sandor Victor | director | Award / grant | 38,000 | 38,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-12 | Babler Martin | director | Award / grant | 38,000 | 38,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-12 | FRIEDMAN PAUL A | director | Award / grant | 38,000 | 38,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-04-04 | Huang Jane | director | Withheld for tax | 3,355 | 74,877 | Form 4 |
| 2025-04-04 | Huang Jane | director | Option exercise | 9,375 | 37,500 | Form 4 |
| 2025-04-04 | Huang Jane | director | Option exercise | 9,375 | 78,232 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.