Issued 2026-09-16 at $345.34 · now $345.34 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, NTRA has typically landed between $275.16 and $436.82 — a range of −20.3% to +26.5% from the issuance price $345.34.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
2,798 overlapping 1 month windows · 2015-07-01 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($345.34) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where NTRA has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $345.34 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $345.34 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $352.37 (+2.0%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $321.39–$383.35
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $275.16–$436.82
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 2,798 windows spanning 2015-07-01 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2022-02-11 | −56.4% | −56.4% | +2.8% |
| 2020-02-18 | −52.0% | −52.0% | +11.6% |
| 2022-02-10 | −49.5% | −49.5% | +0.6% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2020-03-18 | +94.9% | +0.0% | +94.9% |
| 2018-05-25 | +71.9% | −1.7% | +71.9% |
| 2018-06-08 | +71.2% | +0.0% | +71.2% |
2,798 overlapping windows · 2015-07-01 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~12 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
64%
−1.8%
n=11
Feb
55%
+1.9%
n=11
Mar
45%
+0.2%
n=11
Apr
73%
+3.6%
n=11
May
82%
+9.7%
n=11
Jun
82%
+12.7%
n=11
Jul
36%
−0.0%
n=11
Aug
83%
+15.7%
n=12
Sep
42%
−3.9%
n=12
Oct
36%
−3.8%
n=11
Nov
55%
+10.0%
n=11
Dec
36%
−0.1%
n=11
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-15 | Rabinowitz Matthew | director | Sale | 14,500 @ $350.81 | $5.1M | −0.7% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 2,126,194 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-15 | Rabinowitz Matthew | director | Sale | 8,094 @ $348.65 | $2.8M | −0.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 2,144,900 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-15 | Rabinowitz Matthew | director | Sale | 5,839 @ $344.49 | $2.0M | −0.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 2,159,516 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-15 | Rabinowitz Matthew | director | Sale | 4,206 @ $349.51 | $1.5M | −0.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 2,140,694 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-15 | Rabinowitz Matthew | director | Sale | 2,700 @ $347.81 | $939K | −0.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 2,152,994 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-15 | Rabinowitz Matthew | director | Sale | 2,700 @ $345.38 | $933K | −0.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 2,156,816 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-15 | Rabinowitz Matthew | director | Sale | 2,549 @ $340.25 | $867K | −0.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 2,171,364 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-15 | Rabinowitz Matthew | director | Sale | 2,240 @ $343.56 | $770K | −0.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 2,165,355 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-15 | Rabinowitz Matthew | director | Sale | 2,000 @ $350.01 | $700K | −100.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-15 | Rabinowitz Matthew | director | Sale | 1,956 @ $342.18 | $669K | −0.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 2,167,595 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-15 | Rabinowitz Matthew | director | Sale | 1,813 @ $341.41 | $619K | −0.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 2,169,551 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-15 | Rabinowitz Matthew | director | Sale | 1,481 @ $339.24 | $502K | −0.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 2,173,913 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-15 | Rabinowitz Matthew | director | Sale | 1,122 @ $346.68 | $389K | −0.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 2,155,694 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-15 | Rabinowitz Matthew | director | Sale | 800 @ $351.25 | $281K | −0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 2,125,394 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-14 | Rabinowitz Matthew | director | Sale | 8,459 @ $336.27 | $2.8M | −0.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 2,189,865 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-14 | Rabinowitz Matthew | director | Sale | 6,206 @ $330.05 | $2.0M | −0.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 2,211,636 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-14 | Rabinowitz Matthew | director | Sale | 6,015 @ $329.12 | $2.0M | −0.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 2,217,842 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-14 | Rabinowitz Matthew | director | Sale | 4,064 @ $342.51 | $1.4M | −0.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 2,175,394 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-14 | Rabinowitz Matthew | director | Sale | 3,754 @ $335.18 | $1.3M | −0.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 2,198,324 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-14 | Rabinowitz Matthew | director | Sale | 3,494 @ $330.98 | $1.2M | −0.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 2,208,142 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-14 | Rabinowitz Matthew | director | Sale | 2,818 @ $334.24 | $942K | −0.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 2,202,078 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-14 | Rabinowitz Matthew | director | Sale | 2,700 @ $341.35 | $922K | −0.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 2,179,458 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-14 | Rabinowitz Matthew | director | Sale | 2,246 @ $333.07 | $748K | −0.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 2,204,896 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-14 | Rabinowitz Matthew | director | Sale | 2,207 @ $337.17 | $744K | −0.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 2,187,658 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-14 | Rabinowitz Matthew | director | Sale | 2,100 @ $339.37 | $713K | −0.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 2,184,158 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-14 | Rabinowitz Matthew | director | Sale | 2,000 @ $340.31 | $681K | −0.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 2,182,158 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-14 | Rabinowitz Matthew | director | Sale | 1,537 @ $328.09 | $504K | −0.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 2,223,857 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-14 | Rabinowitz Matthew | director | Sale | 1,400 @ $338.30 | $474K | −0.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 2,186,258 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-14 | Rabinowitz Matthew | director | Sale | 1,000 @ $332.02 | $332K | −0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 2,207,142 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-11 | Rabinowitz Matthew | director | Sale | 17,933 @ $327.97 | $5.9M | −0.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 2,242,458 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-09-11 | Rabinowitz Matthew | director | Sale | 15,764 @ $328.95 | $5.2M | −0.7% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 2,226,694 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-09-11 | Rabinowitz Matthew | director | Sale | 10,556 @ $327.14 | $3.5M | −0.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 2,260,391 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-09-11 | Rabinowitz Matthew | director | Sale | 3,647 @ $326.11 | $1.2M | −0.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 2,270,947 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-09-11 | Rabinowitz Matthew | director | Sale | 1,300 @ $329.62 | $429K | −0.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 2,225,394 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-09-11 | Rabinowitz Matthew | director | Sale | 800 @ $325.01 | $260K | −0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 2,274,594 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-09-02 | Moshkevich Solomon | officer | Sale | 15,160 @ $326.89 | $5.0M | −12.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 110,859 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-01 | Chapman Steven Leonard | director | Sale | 1,698 @ $320.99 | $545K | −1.7% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 98,199 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-01 | Moshkevich Solomon | officer | Sale | 1,400 @ $320.92 | $449K | −1.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 126,619 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-01 | Moshkevich Solomon | officer | Sale | 1,000 @ $319.76 | $320K | −0.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 128,019 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-01 | Moshkevich Solomon | officer | Sale | 600 @ $321.91 | $193K | −0.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 126,019 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-10 | Fesko John | officer | Sale | 6,517 @ $321.53 | $2.1M | −3.2% of holding | +5.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 197,257 | Form 4 · filed 18 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-10 | Sheena Jonathan | director | Sale | 6,000 @ $325.32 | $2.0M | −2.5% of holding | +5.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 230,464 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-07 | Sheena Jonathan | director | Sale | 5,111 @ $316.61 | $1.6M | −2.1% of holding | +1.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 237,253 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-07 | Rabinowitz Matthew | director | Sale | 2,000 @ $320.90 | $642K | −50.0% of holding | +1.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,000 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-07 | Sheena Jonathan | director | Sale | 900 @ $313.07 | $282K | −0.4% of holding | +1.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 243,814 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-07 | Sheena Jonathan | director | Sale | 850 @ $314.25 | $267K | −0.3% of holding | +1.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 242,964 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-07 | Sheena Jonathan | director | Sale | 600 @ $315.32 | $189K | −0.2% of holding | +1.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 242,364 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-07 | Sheena Jonathan | director | Sale | 489 @ $320.90 | $157K | −0.2% of holding | +1.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 236,464 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-07 | Sheena Jonathan | director | Sale | 400 @ $311.88 | $125K | −0.2% of holding | +1.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 244,714 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-07 | Sheena Jonathan | director | Sale | 400 @ $310.23 | $124K | −0.2% of holding | +1.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 245,114 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-07 | Sheena Jonathan | director | Sale | 200 @ $317.96 | $64K | −0.1% of holding | +1.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 237,053 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-07 | Sheena Jonathan | director | Sale | 100 @ $318.63 | $32K | −0.0% of holding | +1.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 236,953 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-07 | Sheena Jonathan | director | Sale | 100 @ $308.40 | $31K | −0.0% of holding | +1.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 245,514 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-04 | Brophy Michael Burkes | officer | Sale | 478 @ $274.22 | $131K | −0.9% of holding | +19.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 51,637 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-03 | Moshkevich Solomon | officer | Sale | 1,233 @ $267.79 | $330K | −0.9% of holding | +18.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 129,147 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-03 | Chapman Steven Leonard | director | Sale | 1,182 @ $267.99 | $317K | −1.1% of holding | +18.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 101,791 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-03 | Moshkevich Solomon | officer | Sale | 947 @ $263.94 | $250K | −0.7% of holding | +18.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 130,572 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-03 | Rabinowitz Matthew | director | Sale | 731 @ $267.99 | $196K | −0.0% of holding | +18.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,275,394 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-03 | Chapman Steven Leonard | director | Sale | 676 @ $263.86 | $178K | −0.7% of holding | +18.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 100,885 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-03 | Chapman Steven Leonard | director | Sale | 612 @ $268.22 | $164K | −0.6% of holding | +18.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 99,897 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
59 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-06 | Fesko John | officer | Award / grant | 20,000 | 203,774 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-26 | Rubin Eric H | director | Award / grant | 75 | 2,204 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-26 | Rubin Eric H | director | Award / grant | 75 | 2,204 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-26 | ROSENMAN HERM | director | Award / grant | 106 | 5,927 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-26 | ROSENMAN HERM | director | Award / grant | 1,571 | 5,821 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-26 | Chapman Rowan E | director | Award / grant | 103 | 4,798 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-26 | Chapman Rowan E | director | Award / grant | 1,571 | 4,695 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-26 | Bertagnolli Monica | director | Award / grant | 75 | 7,020 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-26 | Bertagnolli Monica | director | Award / grant | 1,571 | 6,945 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-26 | Marcus Gail Boxer | director | Award / grant | 98 | 7,852 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-26 | Marcus Gail Boxer | director | Award / grant | 1,571 | 7,754 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-26 | Baynes Roy D. | director | Award / grant | 75 | 20,158 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-26 | Baynes Roy D. | director | Award / grant | 1,571 | 20,083 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-26 | Lynch Thomas J. Jr. | director | Award / grant | 1,905 | 1,905 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-26 | ROSENMAN HERM | director | Award / grant | 106 | 5,927 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-26 | ROSENMAN HERM | director | Award / grant | 1,571 | 5,821 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-26 | BOTHA ROELOF | director | Award / grant | 120 | 4,585 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-26 | BOTHA ROELOF | director | Award / grant | 1,571 | 4,465 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-26 | Marcus Gail Boxer | director | Award / grant | 98 | 7,852 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-26 | Lynch Thomas J. Jr. | director | Award / grant | 1,905 | 1,905 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-26 | Marcus Gail Boxer | director | Award / grant | 1,571 | 7,754 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-26 | Chapman Rowan E | director | Award / grant | 103 | 4,798 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-26 | Chapman Rowan E | director | Award / grant | 1,571 | 4,695 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-26 | Bertagnolli Monica | director | Award / grant | 75 | 7,020 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-26 | Bertagnolli Monica | director | Award / grant | 1,571 | 6,945 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-26 | Baynes Roy D. | director | Award / grant | 75 | 20,158 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-26 | Baynes Roy D. | director | Award / grant | 1,571 | 20,083 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-26 | BOTHA ROELOF | director | Award / grant | 1,571 | 4,465 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-26 | BOTHA ROELOF | director | Award / grant | 120 | 4,585 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-05 | Marcus Gail Boxer | director | Option exercise | 11,000 | 17,183 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-05 | Marcus Gail Boxer | director | Option exercise | 11,000 | 11,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-29 | Rubin Eric H | director | Award / grant | 2,124 | 2,129 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-29 | Rubin Eric H | director | Award / grant | 2,124 | 2,129 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-05 | Rabinowitz Matthew | director | Award / grant | 2,389 | 2,378,791 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-05 | Rabinowitz Matthew | director | Award / grant | 2,389 | 2,378,791 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-24 | Marcus Gail Boxer | director | Award / grant | 222 | 6,183 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-24 | BOTHA ROELOF | director | Award / grant | 222 | 2,894 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-24 | BOTHA ROELOF | director | Award / grant | 132 | 2,672 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-24 | ROSENMAN HERM | director | Award / grant | 117 | 20,558 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-24 | Marcus Gail Boxer | director | Award / grant | 222 | 6,183 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.