NLYAnnaly Capital Management, Inc.Real Estate · REIT - Mortgageas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $21.23 · now $21.23 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, NLY has typically landed between $18.77 and $23.56 — a range of −11.6% to +11.0% from the issuance price $21.23.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

5,003 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($21.23) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where NLY has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $21.23 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$18.77worst · -11.6%$23.56best · +11.0%
  • now $21.23 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $21.4 (+0.8%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $20.49–$22.31
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $18.77–$23.56
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 5,003 windows spanning 2006-09-26 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2020-03-05−55.3%−55.3%+0.0%
2020-02-21−54.1%−54.1%+0.0%
2020-03-03−51.5%−51.5%+2.1%
3 best
2020-04-03+56.1%+0.0%+58.6%
2020-04-06+42.2%+0.0%+50.2%
2020-04-01+40.4%−7.9%+46.1%

5,003 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
65%
+2.2%
n=20
Feb
60%
−0.2%
n=20
Mar
65%
−1.3%
n=20
Apr
70%
+2.6%
n=20
May
60%
−0.8%
n=20
Jun
65%
+1.7%
n=20
Jul
65%
+2.7%
n=20
Aug
50%
+0.2%
n=20
Sep
45%
−1.0%
n=20
Oct
55%
−0.4%
n=20
Nov
70%
+2.6%
n=20
Dec
75%
+2.4%
n=20

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$24$182026-08-03: 1 insider sale, $1.1M — Finkelstein David L2026-05-04: 1 insider sale, $372K — Wolfe Serena2026-04-27: 1 insider sale, $1.1M — Finkelstein David L2026-02-25: 1 insider sale, $605K — Campbell Steven Francis2026-02-18: 3 insider sales, $2.2M — Finkelstein David L, Campbell Steven Francis, Wolfe Serena2025-11-03: 2 insider sales, $1.5M — Finkelstein David L, Green Anthony C2025-08: 2 open-market sales, $1.5M2025-11: 2 open-market sales, $1.5M2026-02: 4 open-market sales, $2.8M2026-04: 1 open-market sale, $1.1M2026-05: 1 open-market sale, $372K2026-08: 1 open-market sale, $1.1M↑ buys↓ salesdirector Finkelstein David L — Sale on 2026-08-03, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Wolfe Serena — Sale on 2026-05-04, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Finkelstein David L — Sale on 2026-04-27, filed 3 days after the tradeofficer Campbell Steven Francis — Sale on 2026-02-25, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Finkelstein David L — Sale on 2026-02-18, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Campbell Steven Francis — Sale on 2026-02-18, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Wolfe Serena — Sale on 2026-02-18, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Finkelstein David L — Sale on 2025-11-03, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Green Anthony C — Sale on 2025-11-03, filed 1 day after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-08-03Finkelstein David LdirectorSale50,000 @ $22.89$1.1M−6.2% of holding−1.2%not yet — horizon still open761,012Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-05-04Wolfe SerenadirectorSale16,537 @ $22.48$372K−7.6% of holding−10.4%not yet — horizon still open200,964Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-04-27Finkelstein David LdirectorSale50,000 @ $22.88$1.1M−6.0% of holding−10.1%not yet — horizon still open783,763Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-02-25Campbell Steven FrancisofficerSale26,491 @ $22.83$605K−13.0% of holding−1.8%−4.9%178,000Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-02-18Finkelstein David LdirectorSale50,000 @ $23.13$1.2M−6.8% of holding−0.8%−2.3%688,134Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-18Campbell Steven FrancisofficerSale28,225 @ $23.12$653K−12.1% of holding−0.8%−2.3%204,491Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-18Wolfe SerenadirectorSale16,536 @ $23.14$383K−8.7% of holding−0.8%−2.3%173,081Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-11-03Finkelstein David LdirectorSale50,000 @ $21.16$1.1M−6.6% of holding+7.1%+4.9%709,725Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-11-03Green Anthony CofficerSale22,499 @ $21.15$476K−11.2% of holding+7.1%+4.9%178,441Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-08-06Green Anthony CofficerSale22,500 @ $20.59$463K−10.3% of holding+5.1%+11.5%196,959Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-08-04Finkelstein David LdirectorSale50,000 @ $20.79$1.0M−6.3% of holding+0.8%+6.7%743,430Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-05-13Campbell Steven FrancisofficerSale44,374 @ $19.57$868K−18.2% of holding−3.3%+3.7%199,967Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-05-13Wolfe SerenadirectorSale25,386 @ $19.57$497K−13.6% of holding−3.3%+3.7%161,586Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-05-05Finkelstein David LdirectorSale50,000 @ $19.27$964K−6.2% of holding−7.1%−3.2%760,769Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-02-10Finkelstein David LdirectorSale50,000 @ $20.60$1.0M−6.9% of holding+10.0%+0.1%677,465Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

48 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-06-10VOTEK GLENNdirectorAward / grant8,64144,348Form 4
2026-06-10Williams VickidirectorAward / grant8,64157,099Form 4
2026-06-10Hannan Kathy HopinkahdirectorAward / grant8,64144,348Form 4
2026-06-10Hamilton Thomas EdwarddirectorAward / grant8,64153,884Form 4
2026-06-10Reeves Eric A.directorAward / grant8,64121,544Form 4
2026-06-10Laguerre MartindirectorAward / grant8,64142,160Form 4
2026-06-10Laroche ManondirectorAward / grant8,64126,185Form 4
2026-06-10Wede ScottdirectorAward / grant8,64126,185Form 4
2026-05-14Reeves Eric A.directorOption exercise7,62830,593Form 4
2026-05-14Reeves Eric A.directorOption exercise7,62812,903Form 4
2026-02-25Finkelstein David LdirectorAward / grant325,7971,013,931Form 4
2026-02-25Finkelstein David LdirectorWithheld for tax180,168833,763Form 4
2026-02-25Campbell Steven FrancisofficerAward / grant85,319263,319Form 4
2026-02-25Wolfe SerenadirectorAward / grant83,106256,187Form 4
2026-02-25Campbell Steven FrancisofficerWithheld for tax43,556219,763Form 4
2026-02-25Wolfe SerenadirectorWithheld for tax42,427213,760Form 4
2026-02-01Finkelstein David LdirectorAward / grant152,976738,134Form 4
2026-02-01Finkelstein David LdirectorWithheld for tax139,889585,158Form 4
2026-02-01Campbell Steven FrancisofficerAward / grant52,151232,716Form 4
2026-02-01Wolfe SerenadirectorAward / grant45,632189,617Form 4
2026-02-01Campbell Steven FrancisofficerWithheld for tax39,810180,565Form 4
2026-02-01Wolfe SerenadirectorWithheld for tax35,660143,985Form 4
2025-05-15Reeves Eric A.directorOption exercise7,34918,081Form 4
2025-05-15Reeves Eric A.directorOption exercise7,34922,965Form 4
2025-05-14VOTEK GLENNdirectorAward / grant8,96135,707Form 4
2025-05-14Reeves Eric A.directorAward / grant8,96125,430Form 4
2025-05-14Wede ScottdirectorAward / grant8,96117,544Form 4
2025-05-14Hamilton Thomas EdwarddirectorAward / grant8,96145,243Form 4
2025-05-14Laguerre MartindirectorAward / grant8,96129,507Form 4
2025-05-14Williams VickidirectorAward / grant8,96148,458Form 4
2025-05-14Hannan Kathy HopinkahdirectorAward / grant8,96135,707Form 4
2025-05-14Laroche ManondirectorAward / grant8,96117,544Form 4
2025-02-25Finkelstein David LdirectorWithheld for tax121,784810,769Form 4
2025-02-25Green Anthony CofficerWithheld for tax28,778211,481Form 4
2025-02-25Campbell Steven FrancisofficerWithheld for tax27,629244,341Form 4
2025-02-25Wolfe SerenadirectorWithheld for tax11,515186,972Form 4
2025-02-25Finkelstein David LdirectorAward / grant220,222932,553Form 4
2025-02-25Green Anthony CofficerAward / grant56,370240,259Form 4
2025-02-25Wolfe SerenadirectorAward / grant22,555198,487Form 4
2025-02-25Campbell Steven FrancisofficerAward / grant54,120271,970Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.