Issued 2026-09-16 at $68.45 · now $68.45 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, LQDA has typically landed between $54.10 and $98.62 — a range of −21.0% to +44.1% from the issuance price $68.45.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
2,025 overlapping 1 month windows · 2018-07-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($68.45) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where LQDA has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $68.45 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $68.45 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $72.03 (+5.2%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $63.34–$80.73
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $54.1–$98.62
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 2,025 windows spanning 2018-07-26 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2020-06-25 | −53.0% | −53.0% | +0.0% |
| 2020-09-17 | −51.6% | −51.6% | +0.0% |
| 2020-06-26 | −50.1% | −50.6% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2019-12-20 | +130.6% | +0.0% | +130.6% |
| 2019-12-19 | +128.7% | +0.0% | +128.7% |
| 2020-03-18 | +120.5% | +0.0% | +120.5% |
2,025 overlapping windows · 2018-07-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~9 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
75%
+8.1%
n=8
Feb
75%
+4.3%
n=8
Mar
50%
−1.2%
n=8
Apr
38%
−5.8%
n=8
May
88%
+19.5%
n=8
Jun
25%
−2.9%
n=8
Jul
38%
+0.4%
n=8
Aug
44%
+2.2%
n=9
Sep
44%
+4.5%
n=9
Oct
63%
+2.6%
n=8
Nov
75%
+7.5%
n=8
Dec
75%
+15.1%
n=8
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-14 | SINGH RAMAN | director | Sale | 8,468 @ $66.16 | $560K | −15.9% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 44,637 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-11 | SINGH RAMAN | director | Sale | 9,024 @ $68.62 | $619K | −16.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 44,637 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-01 | Krepp Sarah | officer | Sale | 274 @ $67.76 | $19K | −0.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 117,308 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-21 | Adair Jason | officer | Sale | 41,832 @ $69.09 | $2.9M | −19.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 174,606 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-21 | Adair Jason | officer | Sale | 31,799 @ $69.09 | $2.2M | −12.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 216,438 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-20 | Rielly-Gauvin Katherine | director | Sale | 18,393 @ $72.23 | $1.3M | −29.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 44,637 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-19 | Saggar Rajeev | officer | Sale | 50,000 @ $74.06 | $3.7M | −26.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 142,265 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-19 | Rielly-Gauvin Katherine | director | Sale | 36,789 @ $74.99 | $2.8M | −45.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 44,637 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-17 | Saggar Rajeev | officer | Sale | 29,534 @ $76.84 | $2.3M | −17.2% of holding | −9.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 142,265 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-27 | Boyle Dana | officer | Sale | 1,600 @ $87.53 | $140K | −0.9% of holding | −20.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 167,919 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-27 | Adair Jason | officer | Sale | 688 @ $87.53 | $60K | −0.3% of holding | −20.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 216,438 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-23 | Bloch Stephen M | director | Sale | 96,400 @ $89.44 | $8.6M | −16.0% of holding | −26.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 505,077 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-23 | Bloch Stephen M | director | Sale | 3,600 @ $90.71 | $327K | −0.7% of holding | −26.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 501,477 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-22 | Bloch Stephen M | director | Sale | 48,032 @ $88.65 | $4.3M | −7.2% of holding | −20.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 616,039 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-22 | Bloch Stephen M | director | Sale | 37,406 @ $87.70 | $3.3M | −5.3% of holding | −20.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 664,071 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-22 | Bloch Stephen M | director | Sale | 14,562 @ $89.24 | $1.3M | −2.4% of holding | −20.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 601,477 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-21 | Bloch Stephen M | director | Sale | 74,444 @ $79.98 | $6.0M | −9.6% of holding | −9.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 702,033 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-21 | Bloch Stephen M | director | Sale | 556 @ $80.66 | $45K | −0.1% of holding | −9.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 701,477 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-20 | Bloch Stephen M | director | Sale | 3,596 @ $79.55 | $286K | −0.5% of holding | −7.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 776,477 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-13 | JEFFS ROGER | director | Sale | 32,744 @ $71.52 | $2.3M | −2.8% of holding | +20.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,130,426 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-13 | Kaseta Michael | director | Sale | 18,977 @ $71.52 | $1.4M | −5.2% of holding | +20.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 345,805 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-13 | Schundler Russell | officer | Sale | 13,692 @ $71.52 | $979K | −2.2% of holding | +20.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 605,962 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-13 | Saggar Rajeev | officer | Sale | 9,223 @ $71.52 | $660K | −5.1% of holding | +20.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 171,799 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-13 | Moomaw Scott | officer | Sale | 8,864 @ $71.52 | $634K | −4.6% of holding | +20.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 182,485 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-13 | Boyle Dana | officer | Sale | 8,361 @ $71.52 | $598K | −4.7% of holding | +20.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 169,519 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-13 | Krepp Sarah | officer | Sale | 7,306 @ $71.52 | $523K | −5.9% of holding | +20.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 117,178 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-13 | Adair Jason | officer | Sale | 7,301 @ $71.52 | $522K | −3.3% of holding | +20.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 217,126 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-13 | JEFFS ROGER | director | Sale | 2,505 @ $71.39 | $179K | −0.2% of holding | +20.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,163,170 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-13 | Kaseta Michael | director | Sale | 1,453 @ $71.39 | $104K | −0.4% of holding | +20.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 364,782 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-13 | Khindri Sanjeev | officer | Sale | 1,101 @ $71.52 | $79K | −1.6% of holding | +20.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 65,947 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-13 | Schundler Russell | officer | Sale | 1,046 @ $71.39 | $75K | −0.2% of holding | +20.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 619,654 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-13 | Saggar Rajeev | officer | Sale | 703 @ $71.39 | $50K | −0.4% of holding | +20.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 181,022 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-13 | Moomaw Scott | officer | Sale | 675 @ $71.39 | $48K | −0.4% of holding | +20.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 191,349 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-13 | Boyle Dana | officer | Sale | 641 @ $71.39 | $46K | −0.4% of holding | +20.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 177,880 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-13 | Adair Jason | officer | Sale | 562 @ $71.39 | $40K | −0.2% of holding | +20.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 224,427 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-13 | Krepp Sarah | officer | Sale | 558 @ $71.39 | $40K | −0.4% of holding | +20.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 124,484 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-13 | Khindri Sanjeev | officer | Sale | 84 @ $71.39 | $6K | −0.1% of holding | +20.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 67,048 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-07 | Bloch Stephen M | director | Sale | 27,282 @ $81.31 | $2.2M | −3.4% of holding | +6.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 780,073 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-07 | Bloch Stephen M | director | Sale | 22,718 @ $80.48 | $1.8M | −2.7% of holding | +6.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 807,355 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-06 | Bloch Stephen M | director | Sale | 25,000 @ $80.17 | $2.0M | −2.9% of holding | +8.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 830,073 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-01 | Bloch Stephen M | director | Sale | 24,147 @ $79.45 | $1.9M | −2.7% of holding | +5.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 855,926 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-01 | Bloch Stephen M | director | Sale | 853 @ $80.05 | $68K | −0.1% of holding | +5.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 855,073 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-22 | Bloch Stephen M | director | Sale | 69,500 @ $75.54 | $5.3M | −7.1% of holding | +14.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 910,573 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-22 | Bloch Stephen M | director | Sale | 30,500 @ $76.18 | $2.3M | −3.3% of holding | +14.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 880,073 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-15 | Bloch Stephen M | director | Sale | 82,740 @ $71.42 | $5.9M | −7.8% of holding | +5.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 982,395 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-15 | Bloch Stephen M | director | Sale | 2,322 @ $72.08 | $167K | −0.2% of holding | +5.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 980,073 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-12 | Bloch Stephen M | director | Sale | 97,954 @ $71.37 | $7.0M | −8.3% of holding | +7.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,078,230 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-12 | Bloch Stephen M | director | Sale | 13,095 @ $72.15 | $945K | −1.2% of holding | +7.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,065,135 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-11 | Bloch Stephen M | director | Sale | 92,128 @ $71.74 | $6.6M | −7.3% of holding | +4.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,176,870 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-11 | Bloch Stephen M | director | Sale | 85,285 @ $69.87 | $6.0M | −6.2% of holding | +4.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,289,206 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-11 | Bloch Stephen M | director | Sale | 25,117 @ $68.91 | $1.7M | −1.8% of holding | +4.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,374,491 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-11 | Bloch Stephen M | director | Sale | 20,208 @ $71.07 | $1.4M | −1.6% of holding | +4.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,268,998 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-11 | Krepp Sarah | officer | Sale | 19,131 @ $70.28 | $1.3M | −13.6% of holding | +4.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 121,863 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-11 | Bloch Stephen M | director | Sale | 17,369 @ $67.90 | $1.2M | −1.2% of holding | +4.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,399,608 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-11 | Krepp Sarah | officer | Sale | 5,749 @ $70.28 | $404K | −3.9% of holding | +4.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 140,994 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-11 | Bloch Stephen M | director | Sale | 1,476 @ $66.40 | $98K | −0.1% of holding | +4.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,416,977 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-11 | Bloch Stephen M | director | Sale | 686 @ $72.41 | $50K | −0.1% of holding | +4.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,176,184 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-10 | Bloch Stephen M | director | Sale | 103,301 @ $65.54 | $6.8M | −6.7% of holding | +5.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,446,690 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-10 | Bloch Stephen M | director | Sale | 28,237 @ $66.30 | $1.9M | −2.0% of holding | +5.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,418,453 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-10 | Bloch Stephen M | director | Sale | 14,416 @ $64.48 | $930K | −0.9% of holding | +5.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,549,991 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
157 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-14 | SINGH RAMAN | director | Option exercise | 8,468 | 53,105 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-14 | SINGH RAMAN | director | Option exercise | 8,468 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-11 | SINGH RAMAN | director | Option exercise | 8,468 | 53,661 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-11 | SINGH RAMAN | director | Option exercise | 556 | 45,193 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-11 | SINGH RAMAN | director | Option exercise | 8,468 | 8,468 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-11 | SINGH RAMAN | director | Option exercise | 556 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-21 | Adair Jason | officer | Option exercise | 10,762 | 247,999 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-21 | Adair Jason | officer | Option exercise | 11,799 | 237,237 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-21 | Adair Jason | officer | Option exercise | 9,000 | 225,438 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-21 | Adair Jason | officer | Option exercise | 238 | 248,237 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-21 | Adair Jason | officer | Option exercise | 11,799 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-21 | Adair Jason | officer | Option exercise | 9,000 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-21 | Adair Jason | officer | Option exercise | 10,762 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-21 | Adair Jason | officer | Option exercise | 238 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | Rielly-Gauvin Katherine | director | Option exercise | 11,727 | 56,364 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | Rielly-Gauvin Katherine | director | Option exercise | 6,666 | 63,030 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | Rielly-Gauvin Katherine | director | Option exercise | 11,727 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | Rielly-Gauvin Katherine | director | Option exercise | 6,666 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-19 | Saggar Rajeev | officer | Option exercise | 50,000 | 192,265 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-19 | Rielly-Gauvin Katherine | director | Option exercise | 23,455 | 68,092 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-19 | Rielly-Gauvin Katherine | director | Option exercise | 13,334 | 81,426 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-19 | Rielly-Gauvin Katherine | director | Option exercise | 23,455 | 11,727 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-19 | Rielly-Gauvin Katherine | director | Option exercise | 13,334 | 6,666 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-19 | Saggar Rajeev | officer | Option exercise | 50,000 | 150,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-10 | Schundler Russell | officer | Option exercise | 3,759 | 22,550 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-10 | Schundler Russell | officer | Option exercise | 6,409 | 64,089 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-10 | JEFFS ROGER | director | Option exercise | 14,333 | 143,329 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-10 | JEFFS ROGER | director | Option exercise | 13,834 | 83,001 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-10 | Kaseta Michael | director | Option exercise | 5,829 | 34,968 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-10 | Moomaw Scott | officer | Option exercise | 4,358 | 43,580 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-10 | Adair Jason | officer | Option exercise | 3,907 | 7,812 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-10 | Adair Jason | officer | Option exercise | 2,475 | 14,845 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-10 | Adair Jason | officer | Option exercise | 3,869 | 38,684 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-10 | Moomaw Scott | officer | Option exercise | 3,108 | 18,646 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-10 | Saggar Rajeev | officer | Option exercise | 3,531 | 21,184 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-10 | Boyle Dana | officer | Option exercise | 3,179 | 31,787 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-10 | Saggar Rajeev | officer | Option exercise | 4,487 | 44,862 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-10 | Krepp Sarah | officer | Option exercise | 3,179 | 31,787 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-10 | Kaseta Michael | director | Option exercise | 7,050 | 70,497 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-10 | Saggar Rajeev | officer | Option exercise | 4,487 | 181,725 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.