ETON · TickerCove

ETONEton Pharmaceuticals, Inc.Healthcare · Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Genericas of 2026-09-16

Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $56.35 · now $56.35 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, ETON has typically landed between $44.91 and $78.00 — a range of −20.3% to +38.4% from the issuance price $56.35.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.

Actual close
Typical path (median)
Middle 50% of outcomes
90% range

1,948 overlapping 1 month windows · 2018-11-13 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($56.35) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

52-week range$56.35 · 84% of range

$14.35 low$64.43 high

Trailing 52 weeks to 2026-09-16 — factual context, not a signal.

Base rate up · monthiClimatology base rate that a US-listed stock rises over a month, with its 90% CI and ≈1,408 effective observations. Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.

53.9%

90% CI 51.7%–56.1%

Distribution · month iiThe price-anchored range: typical move (median), and the p90 downside/upside — 90% of similar periods stayed inside these. Ranges, not a prediction of direction.

+3.2%

typical move · IQR 27.1%

−20.3%worst (p90)+38.4%best (p90)

Insider convictioniOpen-market common-stock purchases by company insiders in the last 90 days (grants and option exercises excluded). Historical tendency, not advice — detail below.

conviction buys

0 open-market sales

Congress disclosuresiRecent disclosed congressional trades for this company. Purchase clusters (≥2 members buying within 90 days) historically preceded a modestly higher forward return (+32 bp/mo in 2022–2026, +45 bp/mo in 2015–2021) — a descriptive tendency, not a forecast input. Detail below.

0 buys · 0 sells · 0 members

cluster tilt persisted, ~halved after 2021

Where ETON has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $56.35 — the range is history, not a prediction.

now $56.35 (+0.0%)
typical $58.13 (+3.2%)
middle 50% $50.49–$65.77
90% range $44.91–$78

Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 1,948 windows spanning 2018-11-13 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.

Start	Return	Max drop	Max rise
3 worst
2020-02-18	−60.7%	−60.7%	+0.0%
2020-02-13	−54.8%	−54.8%	+6.6%
2020-02-14	−54.4%	−55.8%	+4.3%
3 best
2023-08-10	+99.6%	+0.0%	+99.6%
2023-07-28	+84.7%	+0.0%	+92.5%
2023-08-09	+83.7%	−1.5%	+86.0%

1,948 overlapping windows · 2018-11-13 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month i

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~8 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.

Jan

50%

+5.0%

n=8

Feb

50%

+0.8%

n=8

Mar

50%

+0.1%

n=8

Apr

38%

+4.1%

n=8

May

63%

+1.9%

n=8

Jun

25%

−4.4%

n=8

Jul

50%

+0.4%

n=8

Aug

75%

+17.0%

n=8

Sep

50%

+5.5%

n=8

Oct

57%

+6.8%

n=7

Nov

57%

+5.1%

n=7

Dec

63%

+5.2%

n=8

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares @ price	Value	Ownership Δ	vs S&P 1m	vs S&P 6m	Owned after	Filing
2026-08-28	MAIER PAUL V	director	Sale	36,387 @ $58.64	$2.1M	−33.2% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	73,358	Form 4 · filed same day
2026-08-28	MAIER PAUL V	director	Sale	13,485 @ $60.21	$812K	−18.4% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	59,873	Form 4 · filed same day
2026-08-28	MAIER PAUL V	director	Sale	128 @ $61.77	$8K	−0.2% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	59,745	Form 4 · filed same day
2026-08-24	Krempa David	officer	Sale	25,000 @ $65.07	$1.6M	−40.3% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	37,025	Form 4 · filed same day
2026-08-20	BRYNJELSEN SEAN	director	Sale	47,307 @ $60.17	$2.8M	−4.5% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	1,004,909	Form 4 · filed same day
2026-08-20	BRYNJELSEN SEAN	director	Sale	36,373 @ $61.11	$2.2M	−3.6% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	968,536	Form 4 · filed same day
2026-08-20	BRYNJELSEN SEAN	director	Sale	7,342 @ $62.12	$456K	−0.8% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	961,194	Form 4 · filed same day
2026-08-19	BRYNJELSEN SEAN	director	Sale	8,978 @ $62.65	$562K	−0.8% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	1,052,216	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-07-14	Opaleye Management Inc.	tenPercentOwner	Sale	15,000 @ $37.54	$563K	−0.6% of holding	+8.1%	not yet — horizon still open	2,665,000	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-07-14	Opaleye Management Inc.	tenPercentOwner	Sale	13,315 @ $37.54	$500K	−25.0% of holding	+8.1%	not yet — horizon still open	40,000	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-07-07	Opaleye Management Inc.	tenPercentOwner	Sale	20,000 @ $38.37	$767K	−0.7% of holding	+18.9%	not yet — horizon still open	2,680,000	Form 4 · filed same day
2026-07-07	Opaleye Management Inc.	tenPercentOwner	Sale	6,685 @ $38.37	$257K	−11.1% of holding	+18.9%	not yet — horizon still open	53,315	Form 4 · filed same day
2026-07-06	Opaleye Management Inc.	tenPercentOwner	Sale	10,000 @ $38.00	$380K	−0.4% of holding	+17.9%	not yet — horizon still open	2,700,000	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-07-02	Opaleye Management Inc.	tenPercentOwner	Sale	65,000 @ $37.39	$2.4M	−2.3% of holding	+18.6%	not yet — horizon still open	2,710,000	Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2026-07-02	Opaleye Management Inc.	tenPercentOwner	Sale	25,000 @ $37.39	$935K	−29.4% of holding	+18.6%	not yet — horizon still open	60,000	Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2026-06-17	Adams Jennifer McKie	director	Sale	50,000 @ $32.48	$1.6M	−100.0% of holding	+25.0%	not yet — horizon still open	0	Form 4 · filed same day
2026-05-28	BRYNJELSEN SEAN	director	Sale	119,852 @ $31.88	$3.8M	−12.6% of holding	+16.8%	not yet — horizon still open	833,842	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-05-28	BRYNJELSEN SEAN	director	Sale	148 @ $32.67	$5K	−0.0% of holding	+16.8%	not yet — horizon still open	833,694	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-05-27	Krempa David	officer	Sale	19,679 @ $31.47	$619K	−43.8% of holding	+12.8%	not yet — horizon still open	25,249	Form 4 · filed same day
2026-05-26	Krempa David	officer	Sale	37,524 @ $31.49	$1.2M	−59.8% of holding	+13.2%	not yet — horizon still open	25,249	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-05-22	Krempa David	officer	Sale	32,963 @ $33.22	$1.1M	−48.4% of holding	+5.7%	not yet — horizon still open	35,083	Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2026-05-22	Krempa David	officer	Sale	9,315 @ $33.88	$316K	−26.6% of holding	+5.7%	not yet — horizon still open	25,768	Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2026-05-22	Krempa David	officer	Sale	519 @ $35.00	$18K	−2.0% of holding	+5.7%	not yet — horizon still open	25,249	Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2025-08-20	Gruber James R.	officer	Sale	2,631 @ $16.02	$42K	−1.3% of holding	+6.5%	−0.3%	204,753	Form 4 · filed same day
2025-08-19	Gruber James R.	officer	Sale	39,082 @ $16.16	$632K	−16.0% of holding	+10.4%	+4.9%	205,299	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-06-16	Krempa David	officer	Sale	10,223 @ $14.73	$151K	−1.6% of holding	−6.1%	−1.0%	612,646	Form 4 · filed same day
2025-06-13	Krempa David	officer	Sale	6,800 @ $14.77	$100K	−1.1% of holding	−7.7%	+1.9%	622,869	Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-06-12	Krempa David	officer	Sale	16,977 @ $14.92	$253K	−2.6% of holding	−3.9%	+1.5%	629,669	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-06-10	Opaleye Management Inc.	tenPercentOwner	Purchase	5,000 @ $15.82	$79K	+0.2% of holding	−11.5%	−9.8%	2,770,000	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-06-10	Opaleye Management Inc.	tenPercentOwner	Purchase	2,930 @ $15.82	$46K	+3.6% of holding	−11.5%	−9.8%	85,000	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-06-05	BRYNJELSEN SEAN	director	Sale	70,000 @ $16.81	$1.2M	−2.4% of holding	−13.3%	−18.6%	2,873,513	Form 4 · filed same day
2025-06-04	BRYNJELSEN SEAN	director	Sale	70,000 @ $17.00	$1.2M	−2.3% of holding	−19.6%	−18.1%	2,943,513	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-06-03	BRYNJELSEN SEAN	director	Sale	60,945 @ $17.38	$1.1M	−2.0% of holding	−21.6%	−26.0%	3,022,568	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-06-03	BRYNJELSEN SEAN	director	Sale	8,655 @ $18.38	$159K	−0.3% of holding	−21.6%	−26.0%	3,013,913	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-06-03	BRYNJELSEN SEAN	director	Sale	400 @ $19.02	$8K	−0.0% of holding	−21.6%	−26.0%	3,013,513	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

73 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares	Owned after	Filing
2026-08-28	MAIER PAUL V	director	Option exercise	50,000	109,745	Form 4
2026-08-28	MAIER PAUL V	director	Option exercise	50,000	0	Form 4
2026-08-24	Krempa David	officer	Option exercise	25,000	62,025	Form 4
2026-08-24	Krempa David	officer	Option exercise	25,000	70,000	Form 4
2026-07-31	RIEDEL NORBERT G	director	Award / grant	10,000	10,000	Form 4
2026-07-31	Adams Jennifer McKie	director	Award / grant	10,000	10,000	Form 4
2026-07-31	BRYNJELSEN SEAN	director	Award / grant	128,985	128,985	Form 4
2026-07-31	CASAMENTO CHARLES J	director	Award / grant	10,000	10,000	Form 4
2026-07-31	Erdogan-Trinkaus Ipek	officer	Award / grant	80,000	80,000	Form 4
2026-07-31	MAIER PAUL V	director	Award / grant	10,000	10,000	Form 4
2026-07-31	Krempa David	officer	Award / grant	128,985	128,985	Form 4
2026-07-31	Matthews Judith M.	officer	Award / grant	32,246	32,246	Form 4
2026-07-14	BRYNJELSEN SEAN	director	Option exercise	200,000	1,061,194	Form 4
2026-07-14	BRYNJELSEN SEAN	director	Option exercise	200,000	0	Form 4
2026-07-12	BRYNJELSEN SEAN	director	Option exercise	27,500	0	Form 4
2026-07-12	Krempa David	officer	Option exercise	10,000	0	Form 4
2026-07-12	BRYNJELSEN SEAN	director	Option exercise	27,500	861,194	Form 4
2026-07-12	Krempa David	officer	Option exercise	10,000	37,025	Form 4
2026-07-12	Krempa David	officer	Option exercise	10,000	37,025	Form 4
2026-07-12	BRYNJELSEN SEAN	director	Option exercise	27,500	861,194	Form 4
2026-06-26	Krempa David	officer	Award / grant	10,000	96,829	Form 4
2026-06-17	Adams Jennifer McKie	director	Option exercise	50,000	50,000	Form 4
2026-06-17	Adams Jennifer McKie	director	Option exercise	50,000	0	Form 4
2026-05-27	Krempa David	officer	Option exercise	7,203	44,928	Form 4
2026-05-27	Krempa David	officer	Option exercise	12,476	37,725	Form 4
2026-05-27	Krempa David	officer	Option exercise	12,476	0	Form 4
2026-05-27	Krempa David	officer	Option exercise	7,203	118,406	Form 4
2026-05-26	Krempa David	officer	Option exercise	25,000	50,249	Form 4
2026-05-26	Krempa David	officer	Option exercise	12,524	62,773	Form 4
2026-05-26	Krempa David	officer	Option exercise	25,000	0	Form 4
2026-05-26	Krempa David	officer	Option exercise	12,524	12,476	Form 4
2026-05-22	Krempa David	officer	Option exercise	30,591	68,046	Form 4
2026-05-22	Krempa David	officer	Option exercise	30,591	125,609	Form 4
2026-04-21	RIEDEL NORBERT G	director	Option exercise	19,655	67,155	Form 4
2026-04-21	RIEDEL NORBERT G	director	Option exercise	12,500	47,500	Form 4
2026-04-21	RIEDEL NORBERT G	director	Option exercise	12,500	0	Form 4
2026-04-21	RIEDEL NORBERT G	director	Option exercise	19,655	0	Form 4
2026-02-03	RIEDEL NORBERT G	director	Exercise	30,000	35,000	Form 4
2026-02-03	RIEDEL NORBERT G	director	Exercise	30,000	0	Form 4
2026-01-14	Gruber James R.	officer	Withheld for tax	2,293	213,420	Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Resolves in i

28d remaining

2026-09-173% elapsed2026-10-15

Logged immutably 2026-09-17; scored automatically on 2026-10-15 — no edits, ever.

Earnings & context analysis

These panels are being prepared. They are generated by multiple language models, checked, and stored before display — never written live for a page view. Until a model panel has been generated and reviewed for a company, nothing is shown here, honestly, rather than a placeholder.

Calibration i

Every forecast is logged when made and scored when the month is up. The record is shown from the day it starts — young and honest.

How scoring works →

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

Reported insider & political trades

Congressional disclosures

Seasonality · by month i