Issued 2026-09-16 at $1.02 · now $1.02 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, CGTX has typically landed between $0.61 and $1.56 — a range of −40.1% to +52.7% from the issuance price $1.02.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
1,217 overlapping 1 month windows · 2021-10-08 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($1.02) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where CGTX has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $1.02 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $1.02 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $0.9485 (-7.0%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $0.8299–$1.07
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $0.6108–$1.56
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2024-07-09 | −71.7% | −71.7% | +15.0% |
| 2024-07-12 | −71.3% | −72.4% | +19.7% |
| 2024-07-26 | −70.3% | −76.9% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2025-07-29 | +356.6% | −12.6% | +374.5% |
| 2025-07-31 | +314.8% | +0.0% | +442.8% |
| 2025-07-28 | +299.9% | −18.1% | +344.7% |
1,217 overlapping windows · 2021-10-08 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~5 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-16 | Doyle John Brendan | officer | Purchase | 10,000 @ $1.13 | $11K | +1.6% of holding | −2.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 627,509 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-16 | Caggiano Anthony | officer | Purchase | 10,000 @ $1.11 | $11K | +1.2% of holding | −2.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 874,906 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-16 | Ricciardi Lisa | director | Purchase | 9,175 @ $1.10 | $10K | +0.5% of holding | −2.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,715,851 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-01-31 | Ricciardi Lisa | director | Purchase | 38,851 @ $0.77 | $30K | ownership Δ n/a | −37.7% | −6.8% | 38,851 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
46 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-17 | Fletcher Aaron G.L. | director | Award / grant | 25,000 | 81,229 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-17 | RICHSTONE ELLEN B | director | Award / grant | 25,000 | 83,500 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-17 | Wallace Peggy | director | Award / grant | 25,000 | 111,461 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-17 | Monia Brett P | director | Award / grant | 25,000 | 73,500 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-17 | Khattar Jack A. | director | Award / grant | 25,000 | 73,500 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | Doyle John Brendan | officer | Withheld for tax | 8,567 | 618,942 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-15 | Ricciardi Lisa | director | Withheld for tax | 5,850 | 1,706,676 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-15 | Caggiano Anthony | officer | Withheld for tax | 4,680 | 864,906 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-15 | Doyle John Brendan | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,560 | 617,509 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-04 | Ricciardi Lisa | director | Withheld for tax | 51,704 | 1,712,526 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-04 | Doyle John Brendan | officer | Withheld for tax | 26,921 | 619,069 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-04 | Caggiano Anthony | officer | Withheld for tax | 26,919 | 869,586 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-03 | Ricciardi Lisa | director | Withheld for tax | 26,036 | 1,764,230 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-03 | Caggiano Anthony | officer | Withheld for tax | 11,488 | 896,505 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-03 | Doyle John Brendan | officer | Award / grant | 200,000 | 645,990 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-03 | Caggiano Anthony | officer | Award / grant | 400,000 | 907,993 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-03 | Ricciardi Lisa | director | Award / grant | 800,000 | 1,790,266 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-18 | Ricciardi Lisa | director | Withheld for tax | 23,400 | 990,266 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-18 | Caggiano Anthony | officer | Withheld for tax | 20,280 | 507,993 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-18 | Doyle John Brendan | officer | Withheld for tax | 9,360 | 445,990 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-18 | Caggiano Anthony | officer | Award / grant | 65,000 | 528,273 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-18 | Doyle John Brendan | officer | Award / grant | 30,000 | 455,350 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-18 | Ricciardi Lisa | director | Award / grant | 75,000 | 1,013,666 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-19 | Fletcher Aaron G.L. | director | Option exercise | 7,729 | 56,229 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-19 | Fletcher Aaron G.L. | director | Option exercise | 7,729 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2025-07-29 | Ricciardi Lisa | director | Withheld for tax | 23,400 | 938,666 | Form 4 |
| 2025-07-29 | Caggiano Anthony | officer | Withheld for tax | 20,281 | 463,273 | Form 4 |
| 2025-07-29 | Doyle John Brendan | officer | Withheld for tax | 9,360 | 425,350 | Form 4 |
| 2025-07-29 | Doyle John Brendan | officer | Award / grant | 30,000 | 434,710 | Form 4 |
| 2025-07-29 | Caggiano Anthony | officer | Award / grant | 65,000 | 483,554 | Form 4 |
| 2025-07-29 | Ricciardi Lisa | director | Award / grant | 75,000 | 962,066 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-18 | Fletcher Aaron G.L. | director | Award / grant | 34,000 | 48,500 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-18 | Khattar Jack A. | director | Award / grant | 34,000 | 48,500 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-18 | Wallace Peggy | director | Award / grant | 34,000 | 86,461 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-18 | Kreis Leslie W. | director | Award / grant | 34,000 | 48,500 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-18 | Monia Brett P | director | Award / grant | 34,000 | 48,500 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-18 | RICHSTONE ELLEN B | director | Award / grant | 34,000 | 58,500 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-01 | Doyle John Brendan | officer | Withheld for tax | 9,692 | 404,710 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-15 | Ricciardi Lisa | director | Withheld for tax | 6,619 | 887,066 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-15 | Caggiano Anthony | officer | Withheld for tax | 5,296 | 418,554 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.