ZBIO · TickerCove

ZBIOZenas BioPharma, Inc.Healthcare · Biotechnologyas of 2026-09-16

Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $32.32 · now $32.32 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, ZBIO has typically landed between $21.31 and $48.54 — a range of −34.1% to +50.2% from the issuance price $32.32.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.

Actual close
Typical path (median)
Middle 50% of outcomes
90% range

481 overlapping 1 month windows · 2024-09-16 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($32.32) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

52-week range$32.32 · 61% of range

$15.2 low$43.17 high

Trailing 52 weeks to 2026-09-16 — factual context, not a signal.

Base rate up · monthiClimatology base rate that a US-listed stock rises over a month, with its 90% CI and ≈1,408 effective observations. Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.

53.9%

90% CI 51.7%–56.1%

Distribution · month iiThe price-anchored range: typical move (median), and the p90 downside/upside — 90% of similar periods stayed inside these. Ranges, not a prediction of direction.

+5.9%

typical move · IQR 35.3%

−34.1%worst (p90)+50.2%best (p90)

Insider convictioniOpen-market common-stock purchases by company insiders in the last 90 days (grants and option exercises excluded). Historical tendency, not advice — detail below.

conviction buys

0 open-market sales

Congress disclosuresiRecent disclosed congressional trades for this company. Purchase clusters (≥2 members buying within 90 days) historically preceded a modestly higher forward return (+32 bp/mo in 2022–2026, +45 bp/mo in 2015–2021) — a descriptive tendency, not a forecast input. Detail below.

0 buys · 0 sells · 0 members

cluster tilt persisted, ~halved after 2021

Where ZBIO has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $32.32 — the range is history, not a prediction.

now $32.32 (+0.0%)
typical $34.21 (+5.9%)
middle 50% $28.51–$39.92
90% range $21.31–$48.54

Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 481 windows spanning 2024-09-16 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.

Start	Return	Max drop	Max rise
3 worst
2025-12-04	−60.1%	−60.1%	+13.3%
2025-12-08	−58.3%	−61.4%	+9.7%
2025-12-05	−58.1%	−61.4%	+9.6%
3 best
2025-07-01	+71.9%	+0.0%	+80.0%
2025-07-03	+67.6%	−2.4%	+67.6%
2025-06-27	+67.5%	−4.6%	+71.7%

481 overlapping windows · 2024-09-16 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month i

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~2 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.

Jan

−25.7%

n=2

Feb

50%

+15.4%

n=2

Mar

50%

−6.6%

n=2

Apr

50%

+22.7%

n=2

May

−11.3%

n=2

Jun

100%

+19.9%

n=2

Jul

100%

+43.0%

n=2

Aug

100%

+2.3%

n=2

Sep

50%

+19.4%

n=2

Oct

100%

+33.1%

n=2

Nov

50%

−10.8%

n=2

Dec

−17.7%

n=2

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares @ price	Value	Ownership Δ	vs S&P 1m	vs S&P 6m	Owned after	Filing
2026-05-18	MOULDER LEON O JR	director	Purchase	60,000 @ $16.88	$1.0M	+162.5% of holding	+9.6%	not yet — horizon still open	96,928	Form 4 · filed same day
2026-04-29	MOULDER LEON O JR	director	Purchase	35,000 @ $17.62	$617K	+2.0% of holding	−1.5%	not yet — horizon still open	1,786,039	Form 4 · filed same day
2026-04-28	MOULDER LEON O JR	director	Purchase	25,000 @ $18.02	$451K	+1.4% of holding	−3.0%	not yet — horizon still open	1,751,039	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-03-31	Fairmount Funds Management LLC	director	Purchase	150,000 @ $20.00	$3.0M	+6.8% of holding	−11.7%	not yet — horizon still open	2,359,025	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-03-31	Lu Hongbo	director	Purchase	75,000 @ $20.00	$1.5M	+21.6% of holding	−11.7%	not yet — horizon still open	422,968	Form 4 · filed same day
2026-03-31	MOULDER LEON O JR	director	Purchase	34,000 @ $19.31	$657K	+2.0% of holding	−11.7%	not yet — horizon still open	1,726,039	Form 4 · filed same day
2026-03-31	Lu Hongbo	director	Purchase	3,768 @ $18.63	$70K	+0.9% of holding	−11.7%	not yet — horizon still open	426,736	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-03-30	MOULDER LEON O JR	director	Purchase	20,000 @ $18.23	$365K	+1.2% of holding	−16.3%	not yet — horizon still open	1,692,039	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-13	Allen Patricia L	director	Purchase	4,160 @ $26.36	$110K	+26.5% of holding	−9.5%	+1.6%	19,860	Form 4 · filed same day
2026-02-12	Allen Patricia L	director	Purchase	5,700 @ $24.34	$139K	+114.0% of holding	−9.2%	−1.5%	10,700	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-12	Allen Patricia L	director	Purchase	5,000 @ $26.50	$133K	+46.7% of holding	−9.2%	−1.5%	15,700	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-12	Allen Patricia L	director	Purchase	5,000 @ $23.77	$119K	ownership Δ n/a	−9.2%	−1.5%	5,000	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-11	Lu Hongbo	director	Purchase	25,985 @ $22.50	$585K	+8.1% of holding	+7.6%	+12.5%	347,968	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-02-02	MOULDER LEON O JR	director	Purchase	57,000 @ $17.96	$1.0M	+15.6% of holding	+43.7%	+61.6%	423,155	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-01-09	MOULDER LEON O JR	director	Purchase	20,000 @ $16.55	$331K	+5.8% of holding	+33.9%	+70.1%	366,155	Form 4 · filed same day
2026-01-08	MOULDER LEON O JR	director	Purchase	30,000 @ $16.30	$489K	+9.5% of holding	+36.3%	+60.7%	346,155	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-01-07	MOULDER LEON O JR	director	Purchase	50,000 @ $16.38	$819K	+18.8% of holding	+31.9%	+64.0%	316,155	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-10-09	ENRIGHT PATRICK G	director	Purchase	105,265 @ $19.00	$2.0M	+6.1% of holding	+21.1%	−27.0%	1,832,669	Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2025-10-09	Nunn Jason Raleigh	director	Purchase	63,158 @ $19.00	$1.2M	+5.7% of holding	+21.1%	−27.0%	1,173,395	Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2025-10-09	SR ONE CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LLC	tenPercentOwner	Purchase	63,158 @ $19.00	$1.2M	+5.7% of holding	+21.1%	−27.0%	1,173,395	Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2025-10-09	SR ONE CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LLC	tenPercentOwner	Purchase	63,157 @ $19.00	$1.2M	+3.4% of holding	+21.1%	−27.0%	1,917,895	Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2025-10-09	ENRIGHT PATRICK G	director	Purchase	11,990 @ $20.85	$250K	ownership Δ n/a	+21.1%	−27.0%	11,990	Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2025-10-07	Fairmount Funds Management LLC	director	Purchase	316,219 @ $19.00	$6.0M	+16.7% of holding	+45.2%	−0.1%	2,209,025	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-10-07	Lu Hongbo	director	Purchase	263,160 @ $19.00	$5.0M	+447.4% of holding	+45.2%	−0.1%	321,983	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-10-07	MOULDER LEON O JR	director	Purchase	36,928 @ $20.85	$770K	ownership Δ n/a	+45.2%	−0.1%	36,928	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-02-18	MOULDER LEON O JR	director	Purchase	25,000 @ $6.67	$167K	+10.4% of holding	+31.3%	+133.1%	266,155	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-02-07	Xiao Ting	director	Purchase	10,000 @ $7.76	$78K	+27.0% of holding	+1.5%	+86.9%	47,000	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2024-09-13	Lu Hongbo	director	Purchase	58,823 @ $17.00	$1000K	ownership Δ n/a	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	58,823	Form 4 · filed 391 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

27 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares	Owned after	Filing
2026-09-01	Oliger Christy J.	director	Award / grant	37,000	37,000	Form 4
2026-06-15	Boylan James P	director	Award / grant	18,500	18,500	Form 4
2026-06-15	ENRIGHT PATRICK G	director	Award / grant	18,500	18,500	Form 4
2026-06-15	Allen Patricia L	director	Award / grant	18,500	18,500	Form 4
2026-06-15	Farmer Joseph L	officer	Award / grant	175,000	175,000	Form 4
2026-06-15	Fox Jennifer A.	director	Award / grant	125,000	125,000	Form 4
2026-06-15	Lu Hongbo	director	Award / grant	18,500	18,500	Form 4
2026-06-15	MOULDER LEON O JR	director	Award / grant	500,000	500,000	Form 4
2026-06-15	Nunn Jason Raleigh	director	Award / grant	18,500	18,500	Form 4
2026-06-15	ORLOFF JOHN J	director	Award / grant	18,500	18,500	Form 4
2026-06-15	von Moltke Lisa	officer	Award / grant	150,000	150,000	Form 4
2026-02-05	Fox Jennifer A.	director	Award / grant	1,592	1,592	Form 4
2026-02-05	Farmer Joseph L	officer	Award / grant	974	974	Form 4
2025-06-10	Fox Jennifer A.	director	Award / grant	150,000	150,000	Form 4
2025-06-10	Allen Patricia L	director	Award / grant	18,500	18,500	Form 4
2025-06-10	Farmer Joseph L	officer	Award / grant	175,000	175,000	Form 4
2025-06-10	Fairmount Funds Management LLC	director	Award / grant	18,500	18,500	Form 4
2025-06-10	ENRIGHT PATRICK G	director	Award / grant	18,500	18,500	Form 4
2025-06-10	Nunn Jason Raleigh	director	Award / grant	18,500	18,500	Form 4
2025-06-10	MOULDER LEON O JR	director	Award / grant	400,000	400,000	Form 4
2025-06-10	Lu Hongbo	director	Award / grant	18,500	18,500	Form 4
2025-06-10	ORLOFF JOHN J	director	Award / grant	18,500	18,500	Form 4
2025-06-10	Oliveira Orlando	officer	Award / grant	100,000	100,000	Form 4
2025-06-10	Boylan James P	director	Award / grant	18,500	18,500	Form 4
2025-04-15	von Moltke Lisa	officer	Award / grant	400,000	400,000	Form 4
2024-12-16	Fox Jennifer A.	director	Award / grant	8,125	8,125	Form 4
2024-12-16	Oliveira Orlando	officer	Award / grant	7,775	7,775	Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Resolves in i

28d remaining

2026-09-173% elapsed2026-10-15

Logged immutably 2026-09-17; scored automatically on 2026-10-15 — no edits, ever.

Earnings & context analysis

These panels are being prepared. They are generated by multiple language models, checked, and stored before display — never written live for a page view. Until a model panel has been generated and reviewed for a company, nothing is shown here, honestly, rather than a placeholder.

Calibration i

Every forecast is logged when made and scored when the month is up. The record is shown from the day it starts — young and honest.

How scoring works →

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

Reported insider & political trades

Congressional disclosures

Seasonality · by month i