XPO · TickerCove

XPOXPO Logistics, Inc.Industrials · Truckingas of 2026-09-16

Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $174.41 · now $174.41 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, XPO has typically landed between $147.46 and $220.88 — a range of −15.4% to +26.6% from the issuance price $174.41.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.

Actual close
Typical path (median)
Middle 50% of outcomes
90% range

5,003 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($174.41) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

52-week range$174.41 · 48% of range

$123.66 low$228.37 high

Trailing 52 weeks to 2026-09-16 — factual context, not a signal.

Base rate up · monthiClimatology base rate that a US-listed stock rises over a month, with its 90% CI and ≈1,408 effective observations. Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.

53.9%

90% CI 51.7%–56.1%

Distribution · month iiThe price-anchored range: typical move (median), and the p90 downside/upside — 90% of similar periods stayed inside these. Ranges, not a prediction of direction.

+0.9%

typical move · IQR 15.4%

−15.4%worst (p90)+26.6%best (p90)

Insider convictioniOpen-market common-stock purchases by company insiders in the last 90 days (grants and option exercises excluded). Historical tendency, not advice — detail below.

conviction buys

0 open-market sales

Congress disclosuresiRecent disclosed congressional trades for this company. Purchase clusters (≥2 members buying within 90 days) historically preceded a modestly higher forward return (+32 bp/mo in 2022–2026, +45 bp/mo in 2015–2021) — a descriptive tendency, not a forecast input. Detail below.

0 buys · 0 sells · 0 members

cluster tilt persisted, ~halved after 2021

Where XPO has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $174.41 — the range is history, not a prediction.

now $174.41 (+0.0%)
typical $176.05 (+0.9%)
middle 50% $162.61–$189.49
90% range $147.46–$220.88

Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 5,003 windows spanning 2006-09-26 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.

Start	Return	Max drop	Max rise
3 worst
2020-02-20	−59.0%	−59.0%	+0.0%
2020-02-19	−56.9%	−56.9%	+1.7%
2020-02-21	−55.0%	−58.7%	+0.0%
3 best
2011-10-04	+76.4%	+0.0%	+81.0%
2011-06-08	+76.1%	+0.0%	+76.1%
2011-10-03	+71.7%	−0.8%	+79.5%

5,003 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month i

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.

Jan

45%

−0.8%

n=20

Feb

65%

+7.2%

n=20

Mar

50%

−1.5%

n=20

Apr

50%

+5.0%

n=20

May

60%

+1.1%

n=20

Jun

40%

+3.1%

n=20

Jul

50%

+6.6%

n=20

Aug

55%

+1.0%

n=20

Sep

40%

−3.0%

n=20

Oct

80%

+8.4%

n=20

Nov

60%

+5.0%

n=20

Dec

65%

+3.2%

n=20

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares @ price	Value	Ownership Δ	vs S&P 1m	vs S&P 6m	Owned after	Filing
2026-09-14	Bates David J.	officer	Sale	1,500 @ $179.65	$269K	−2.2% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	65,250	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-09-14	Wismans Kyle	director	Sale	750 @ $178.52	$134K	−1.5% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	48,716	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-09-14	Bates David J.	officer	Sale	515 @ $180.58	$93K	−0.8% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	64,735	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-09-14	Bates David J.	officer	Sale	400 @ $178.07	$71K	−0.6% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	66,750	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-09-14	Bates David J.	officer	Sale	200 @ $177.26	$35K	−0.3% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	67,150	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-11	Brown Christopher Michael	officer	Sale	2,500 @ $203.00	$508K	−7.5% of holding	−8.7%	not yet — horizon still open	31,005	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-11	Brown Christopher Michael	officer	Sale	1,250 @ $199.81	$250K	−3.6% of holding	−8.7%	not yet — horizon still open	33,505	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-10	Brown Christopher Michael	officer	Sale	1,250 @ $201.41	$252K	−3.5% of holding	−6.7%	not yet — horizon still open	34,755	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-05-28	Landry Allison	director	Sale	2,400 @ $215.61	$517K	−33.1% of holding	−2.1%	not yet — horizon still open	4,849	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-09-11	Landry Allison	director	Sale	3,250 @ $135.04	$439K	−35.6% of holding	−3.3%	+33.9%	5,875	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-03-13	Bates David J.	officer	Purchase	1,880 @ $106.16	$200K	+9.8% of holding	−8.7%	+2.8%	21,106	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

171 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares	Owned after	Filing
2026-08-07	Harik Mario A	director	Withheld for tax	167,167	681,380	Form 4
2026-08-07	Harik Mario A	director	Option exercise	345,742	848,547	Form 4
2026-08-07	Harik Mario A	director	Award / grant	345,742	345,742	Form 4
2026-08-07	Harik Mario A	director	Option exercise	345,742	0	Form 4
2026-07-27	KNEELAND MICHAEL	director	Award / grant	388	388	Form 4
2026-03-15	Harik Mario A	director	Withheld for tax	11,983	502,805	Form 4
2026-03-15	Cassity Wendy	officer	Withheld for tax	5,192	29,953	Form 4
2026-03-15	Wismans Kyle	director	Withheld for tax	4,996	49,466	Form 4
2026-03-15	Bates David J.	officer	Withheld for tax	2,994	67,350	Form 4
2026-03-15	Brown Christopher Michael	officer	Withheld for tax	1,193	36,005	Form 4
2026-03-15	Bates David J.	officer	Option exercise	6,889	70,344	Form 4
2026-03-15	Wismans Kyle	director	Option exercise	2,926	5,853	Form 4
2026-03-15	Brown Christopher Michael	officer	Option exercise	460	919	Form 4
2026-03-15	Brown Christopher Michael	officer	Option exercise	456	456	Form 4
2026-03-15	Brown Christopher Michael	officer	Option exercise	1,655	0	Form 4
2026-03-15	Brown Christopher Michael	officer	Option exercise	2,571	37,198	Form 4
2026-03-15	Cassity Wendy	officer	Option exercise	975	1,951	Form 4
2026-03-15	Cassity Wendy	officer	Option exercise	968	967	Form 4
2026-03-15	Cassity Wendy	officer	Option exercise	8,791	0	Form 4
2026-03-15	Cassity Wendy	officer	Option exercise	10,734	35,145	Form 4
2026-03-15	Bates David J.	officer	Option exercise	1,463	2,926	Form 4
2026-03-15	Bates David J.	officer	Option exercise	1,451	1,451	Form 4
2026-03-15	Bates David J.	officer	Option exercise	3,975	0	Form 4
2026-03-15	Harik Mario A	director	Option exercise	24,781	514,788	Form 4
2026-03-15	Harik Mario A	director	Option exercise	13,789	0	Form 4
2026-03-15	Harik Mario A	director	Option exercise	5,418	5,417	Form 4
2026-03-15	Harik Mario A	director	Option exercise	5,574	11,147	Form 4
2026-03-15	Wismans Kyle	director	Option exercise	9,783	54,462	Form 4
2026-03-15	Wismans Kyle	director	Option exercise	2,988	0	Form 4
2026-03-15	Wismans Kyle	director	Option exercise	3,869	3,870	Form 4
2026-03-10	Harik Mario A	director	Withheld for tax	142,731	490,007	Form 4
2026-03-10	Bates David J.	officer	Withheld for tax	17,166	63,455	Form 4
2026-03-10	Cassity Wendy	officer	Withheld for tax	12,497	24,411	Form 4
2026-03-10	Wismans Kyle	director	Withheld for tax	7,537	44,679	Form 4
2026-03-10	Brown Christopher Michael	officer	Withheld for tax	2,736	34,627	Form 4
2026-03-10	Harik Mario A	director	Award / grant	295,202	295,202	Form 4
2026-03-10	Harik Mario A	director	Option exercise	295,202	632,738	Form 4
2026-03-10	Bates David J.	officer	Option exercise	39,515	0	Form 4
2026-03-10	Bates David J.	officer	Award / grant	39,515	39,515	Form 4
2026-03-10	Bates David J.	officer	Option exercise	39,515	80,621	Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Resolves in i

28d remaining

2026-09-173% elapsed2026-10-15

Logged immutably 2026-09-17; scored automatically on 2026-10-15 — no edits, ever.

Earnings & context analysis

These panels are being prepared. They are generated by multiple language models, checked, and stored before display — never written live for a page view. Until a model panel has been generated and reviewed for a company, nothing is shown here, honestly, rather than a placeholder.

Calibration i

Every forecast is logged when made and scored when the month is up. The record is shown from the day it starts — young and honest.

How scoring works →

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

Reported insider & political trades

Congressional disclosures

Seasonality · by month i