Issued 2026-09-16 at $14.65 · now $14.65 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, VG has typically landed between $9.31 and $21.69 — a range of −36.4% to +48.1% from the issuance price $14.65.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
392 overlapping 1 month windows · 2025-01-24 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($14.65) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where VG has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $14.65 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $14.65 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $14.56 (-0.6%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $11.94–$17.19
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $9.31–$21.69
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 392 windows spanning 2025-01-24 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2025-02-04 | −55.5% | −55.5% | +0.0% |
| 2025-02-05 | −53.1% | −53.8% | +0.0% |
| 2025-02-06 | −48.7% | −48.7% | +0.3% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2026-02-26 | +85.4% | +0.0% | +85.4% |
| 2025-05-20 | +82.9% | +0.0% | +82.9% |
| 2025-05-09 | +82.3% | +0.0% | +82.3% |
392 overlapping windows · 2025-01-24 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~2 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
100%
+43.7%
n=1
Feb
0%
−13.7%
n=2
Mar
50%
+15.7%
n=2
Apr
0%
−17.2%
n=2
May
50%
+14.3%
n=2
Jun
50%
+13.7%
n=2
Jul
50%
+9.3%
n=2
Aug
50%
−2.9%
n=2
Sep
100%
+4.7%
n=2
Oct
0%
−39.6%
n=1
Nov
0%
−12.9%
n=1
Dec
0%
−8.2%
n=1
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-14 | Cothran Brian | officer | Sale | 152,660 @ $16.15 | $2.5M | −100.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-09-09 | Larson Keith D | officer | Sale | 1,885,804 @ $15.21 | $28.7M | −100.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-09-08 | Larson Keith D | officer | Sale | 464,196 @ $15.05 | $7.0M | −100.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-20 | Musser Fory | officer | Sale | 259,413 @ $14.26 | $3.7M | −100.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-19 | Thayer Jonathan W | officer | Sale | 111,111 @ $13.86 | $1.5M | −100.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-19 | Musser Fory | officer | Sale | 12,600 @ $14.01 | $177K | −100.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-18 | Thayer Jonathan W | officer | Sale | 111,111 @ $14.17 | $1.6M | −100.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-17 | Musser Fory | officer | Sale | 22,013 @ $14.02 | $309K | −100.0% of holding | +9.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-14 | Blake Sarah | officer | Sale | 1,000,000 @ $14.02 | $14.0M | −100.0% of holding | +11.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-14 | Musser Fory | officer | Sale | 447,534 @ $14.02 | $6.3M | −100.0% of holding | +11.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-13 | Larson Keith D | officer | Sale | 555,555 @ $13.48 | $7.5M | −100.0% of holding | +15.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-13 | Granat Sari Beth | director | Sale | 200,000 @ $13.49 | $2.7M | −100.0% of holding | +15.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-13 | STATON JIMMY D | director | Sale | 66,000 @ $13.35 | $881K | −5.7% of holding | +15.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,083,000 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-21 | Thayer Jonathan W | officer | Sale | 111,111 @ $14.08 | $1.6M | −100.0% of holding | −4.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-07-20 | Thayer Jonathan W | officer | Sale | 111,111 @ $14.21 | $1.6M | −100.0% of holding | −4.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-16 | Larson Keith D | officer | Sale | 555,555 @ $12.91 | $7.2M | −100.0% of holding | +7.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-07-15 | Larson Keith D | officer | Sale | 555,556 @ $12.93 | $7.2M | −100.0% of holding | +1.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-18 | Thayer Jonathan W | officer | Sale | 111,111 @ $10.92 | $1.2M | −100.0% of holding | +27.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-06-17 | Thayer Jonathan W | officer | Sale | 111,111 @ $11.05 | $1.2M | −100.0% of holding | +28.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-16 | Larson Keith D | officer | Sale | 555,555 @ $11.27 | $6.3M | −100.0% of holding | +25.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-06-15 | Larson Keith D | officer | Sale | 555,556 @ $11.90 | $6.6M | −100.0% of holding | +8.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-12 | Sabel Michael | director | Purchase | 1,226 @ $13.04 | $16K | +0.1% of holding | −3.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,187,111 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-27 | Earl Thomas | officer | Sale | 1,000,000 @ $12.44 | $12.4M | −100.0% of holding | −8.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-27 | Musser Fory | officer | Sale | 233,735 @ $12.61 | $2.9M | −100.0% of holding | −8.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-26 | Musser Fory | officer | Sale | 266,265 @ $13.09 | $3.5M | −100.0% of holding | −13.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-21 | Cothran Brian | officer | Sale | 31,910 @ $14.33 | $457K | −100.0% of holding | −16.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-05-20 | Cothran Brian | officer | Sale | 120,623 @ $14.55 | $1.8M | −100.0% of holding | −20.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-19 | Cothran Brian | officer | Sale | 473,533 @ $14.81 | $7.0M | −100.0% of holding | −27.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-19 | Thayer Jonathan W | officer | Sale | 111,111 @ $14.59 | $1.6M | −100.0% of holding | −27.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-05-18 | Thayer Jonathan W | officer | Sale | 86,528 @ $14.20 | $1.2M | −77.9% of holding | −22.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 24,583 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-18 | Thayer Jonathan W | officer | Sale | 24,583 @ $14.51 | $357K | −100.0% of holding | −22.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-15 | Larson Keith D | officer | Sale | 555,555 @ $14.04 | $7.8M | −100.0% of holding | −23.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-05-14 | Musser Fory | officer | Sale | 2,000,000 @ $13.09 | $26.2M | −100.0% of holding | −10.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-14 | Larson Keith D | officer | Sale | 555,556 @ $13.07 | $7.3M | −100.0% of holding | −10.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-21 | Thayer Jonathan W | officer | Sale | 111,111 @ $11.89 | $1.3M | −100.0% of holding | +10.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-04-20 | Thayer Jonathan W | officer | Sale | 111,112 @ $11.50 | $1.3M | −100.0% of holding | +25.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-16 | Larson Keith D | officer | Sale | 555,556 @ $12.64 | $7.0M | −100.0% of holding | +6.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-04-15 | Larson Keith D | officer | Sale | 555,556 @ $12.38 | $6.9M | −100.0% of holding | −0.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-19 | Larson Keith D | officer | Sale | 3,206,138 @ $15.55 | $49.9M | −100.0% of holding | −27.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-03-19 | Thayer Jonathan W | officer | Sale | 2,520,800 @ $16.12 | $40.6M | −98.4% of holding | −27.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 40,699 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-03-19 | Blake Sarah | officer | Sale | 200,000 @ $16.00 | $3.2M | −100.0% of holding | −27.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-03-19 | Thayer Jonathan W | officer | Sale | 49,612 @ $14.47 | $718K | −1.9% of holding | −27.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,561,499 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-03-19 | Thayer Jonathan W | officer | Sale | 40,699 @ $15.37 | $626K | −100.0% of holding | −27.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-03-18 | Larson Keith D | officer | Sale | 1,793,862 @ $15.02 | $26.9M | −100.0% of holding | −30.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-18 | Thayer Jonathan W | officer | Sale | 536,514 @ $14.09 | $7.6M | −99.5% of holding | −30.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,900 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-18 | Thayer Jonathan W | officer | Sale | 71,698 @ $13.60 | $975K | −11.7% of holding | −30.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 539,414 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-18 | Thayer Jonathan W | officer | Sale | 2,900 @ $15.02 | $44K | −100.0% of holding | −30.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-12 | Blake Sarah | officer | Sale | 119,300 @ $13.01 | $1.6M | −100.0% of holding | −3.3% | +8.8% | 0 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-03-09 | Earl Thomas | officer | Sale | 1,000,000 @ $11.83 | $11.8M | −100.0% of holding | +25.8% | +14.9% | 0 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-03-09 | Blake Sarah | officer | Sale | 30,700 @ $13.00 | $399K | −100.0% of holding | +25.8% | +14.9% | 0 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-03-05 | Blake Sarah | officer | Sale | 147,100 @ $12.12 | $1.8M | −98.1% of holding | +33.1% | +4.2% | 2,900 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-05 | Blake Sarah | officer | Sale | 150,000 @ $11.57 | $1.7M | −100.0% of holding | +33.1% | +4.2% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-05 | Blake Sarah | officer | Sale | 2,900 @ $12.51 | $36K | −100.0% of holding | +33.1% | +4.2% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-04 | Musser Fory | officer | Sale | 1,000,000 @ $10.90 | $10.9M | −100.0% of holding | +35.4% | +20.1% | 0 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-12-05 | Earl Thomas | officer | Sale | 1,000,000 @ $6.89 | $6.9M | −100.0% of holding | −0.6% | +75.5% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-20 | Musser Fory | officer | Sale | 42,901 @ $7.80 | $335K | −100.0% of holding | −12.4% | +65.6% | 0 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-11-19 | Musser Fory | officer | Sale | 188,337 @ $7.80 | $1.5M | −100.0% of holding | −21.0% | +65.7% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-18 | Musser Fory | officer | Sale | 768,762 @ $8.01 | $6.2M | −100.0% of holding | −25.5% | +59.3% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-17 | Musser Fory | officer | Sale | 776,298 @ $8.06 | $6.3M | −100.0% of holding | −27.4% | +61.8% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-14 | Larson Keith D | officer | Sale | 261,144 @ $8.06 | $2.1M | −100.0% of holding | −26.6% | +76.3% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
149 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-14 | Cothran Brian | officer | Option exercise | 152,660 | 152,660 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-14 | Cothran Brian | officer | Option exercise | 152,660 | 21,822,932 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-09 | Larson Keith D | officer | Option exercise | 1,885,804 | 1,885,804 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-09 | Larson Keith D | officer | Option exercise | 1,885,804 | 239,287 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-08 | Larson Keith D | officer | Option exercise | 464,196 | 464,196 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-08 | Larson Keith D | officer | Option exercise | 464,196 | 2,125,091 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | Musser Fory | officer | Option exercise | 259,413 | 259,413 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | Musser Fory | officer | Option exercise | 259,413 | 278,771 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-19 | Thayer Jonathan W | officer | Option exercise | 111,111 | 111,111 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-19 | Musser Fory | officer | Option exercise | 12,600 | 12,600 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-19 | Musser Fory | officer | Option exercise | 12,600 | 538,184 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-19 | Thayer Jonathan W | officer | Option exercise | 111,111 | 18,268,324 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-18 | Thayer Jonathan W | officer | Option exercise | 111,111 | 111,111 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-18 | Thayer Jonathan W | officer | Option exercise | 111,111 | 18,379,435 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | Musser Fory | officer | Option exercise | 22,013 | 22,013 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | Musser Fory | officer | Option exercise | 22,013 | 550,784 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | Blake Sarah | officer | Option exercise | 1,000,000 | 1,000,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | Musser Fory | officer | Option exercise | 447,534 | 447,534 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | Musser Fory | officer | Option exercise | 447,534 | 572,797 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | Blake Sarah | officer | Option exercise | 1,000,000 | 7,390,663 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-13 | STATON JIMMY D | director | Option exercise | 1,100,000 | 1,149,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-13 | Granat Sari Beth | director | Option exercise | 200,000 | 200,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-13 | Larson Keith D | officer | Option exercise | 555,555 | 555,555 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-13 | Granat Sari Beth | director | Option exercise | 200,000 | 2,060,165 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-13 | STATON JIMMY D | director | Option exercise | 1,100,000 | 1,160,165 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-13 | Larson Keith D | officer | Option exercise | 555,555 | 2,589,287 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-21 | Thayer Jonathan W | officer | Option exercise | 111,111 | 111,111 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-21 | Thayer Jonathan W | officer | Option exercise | 111,111 | 18,490,546 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-20 | Thayer Jonathan W | officer | Option exercise | 111,111 | 111,111 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-20 | Thayer Jonathan W | officer | Option exercise | 111,111 | 18,601,657 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-16 | Larson Keith D | officer | Option exercise | 555,555 | 555,555 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-16 | Larson Keith D | officer | Option exercise | 555,555 | 3,144,842 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-15 | Larson Keith D | officer | Option exercise | 555,556 | 555,556 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-15 | Larson Keith D | officer | Option exercise | 555,556 | 3,700,397 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-18 | Thayer Jonathan W | officer | Option exercise | 111,111 | 111,111 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-18 | Thayer Jonathan W | officer | Option exercise | 111,111 | 18,712,768 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-17 | Thayer Jonathan W | officer | Option exercise | 111,111 | 111,111 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-17 | Thayer Jonathan W | officer | Option exercise | 111,111 | 18,823,879 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-16 | Larson Keith D | officer | Option exercise | 555,555 | 555,555 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-16 | Larson Keith D | officer | Option exercise | 555,555 | 4,255,953 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.