Issued 2026-09-16 at $1.69 · now $1.69 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, VENU has typically landed between $1.06 and $2.24 — a range of −37.1% to +32.6% from the issuance price $1.69.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
429 overlapping 1 month windows · 2024-11-27 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($1.69) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where VENU has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $1.69 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $1.69 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $1.58 (-6.5%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $1.38–$1.78
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $1.06–$2.24
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 429 windows spanning 2024-11-27 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2026-01-22 | −46.6% | −46.9% | +0.0% |
| 2026-01-12 | −42.6% | −45.8% | +2.1% |
| 2026-02-26 | −42.2% | −42.2% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2025-04-29 | +68.9% | −0.4% | +68.9% |
| 2025-04-28 | +62.2% | +0.0% | +62.2% |
| 2025-05-20 | +52.0% | −5.5% | +52.0% |
429 overlapping windows · 2024-11-27 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~2 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
50%
−12.9%
n=2
Feb
0%
−5.0%
n=2
Mar
0%
−19.7%
n=2
Apr
50%
−0.8%
n=2
May
50%
+9.7%
n=2
Jun
50%
−6.4%
n=2
Jul
50%
+2.2%
n=2
Aug
0%
−5.9%
n=2
Sep
50%
−5.6%
n=2
Oct
100%
+8.4%
n=1
Nov
0%
−27.1%
n=1
Dec
0%
−16.0%
n=2
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-11 | Finke Thomas M | director | Purchase | 200,000 @ $1.75 | $350K | +154.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 329,605 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-11 | ROTH JAY W | director | Purchase | 200,000 @ $1.75 | $350K | +320.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 262,500 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-04 | ROTH JAY W | director | Purchase | 49 @ $1.88 | $92 | +0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 9,276,413 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-02 | ROTH JAY W | director | Purchase | 1,400 @ $1.83 | $3K | +0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 9,276,364 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-31 | ROTH JAY W | director | Purchase | 2,100 @ $1.90 | $4K | +0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 9,274,964 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-27 | ROTH JAY W | director | Purchase | 1,000 @ $2.02 | $2K | +0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 9,272,864 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-25 | Finke Thomas M | director | Purchase | 54,644 @ $1.95 | $107K | +72.9% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 129,605 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-25 | ROTH JAY W | director | Purchase | 1,000 @ $1.90 | $2K | +0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 9,271,864 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-21 | Finke Thomas M | director | Purchase | 30,000 @ $1.92 | $58K | +66.7% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 74,961 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-21 | ROTH JAY W | director | Purchase | 1,000 @ $1.92 | $2K | +0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 9,270,864 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-19 | ROTH JAY W | director | Purchase | 1,000 @ $1.89 | $2K | +0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 9,269,864 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-17 | ROTH JAY W | director | Purchase | 1,000 @ $1.84 | $2K | +0.0% of holding | −6.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 9,268,864 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-14 | ROTH JAY W | director | Purchase | 4,750 @ $1.97 | $9K | +0.1% of holding | −10.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 9,267,864 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-09 | ROTH JAY W | director | Purchase | 7,850 @ $2.54 | $20K | +0.1% of holding | −26.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 9,263,114 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-02 | ROTH JAY W | director | Purchase | 1,620 @ $2.10 | $3K | +0.0% of holding | +2.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 9,255,264 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-26 | Finke Thomas M | director | Purchase | 15,000 @ $3.74 | $56K | +50.1% of holding | −17.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 44,961 | Form 4 · filed 27 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-10 | ROTH JAY W | director | Purchase | 62,500 @ $4.00 | $250K | ownership Δ n/a | +2.9% | −63.6% | 62,500 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-20 | ROTH JAY W | director | Purchase | 4,000 @ $5.23 | $21K | +0.0% of holding | −29.6% | −75.3% | 9,253,644 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-30 | ROTH JAY W | director | Purchase | 5,000 @ $5.55 | $28K | +0.1% of holding | −2.7% | −68.5% | 9,249,644 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-31 | Craddock Matthew | director | Purchase | 181 @ $8.12 | $1K | +0.2% of holding | −40.6% | −81.8% | 75,285 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-31 | Craddock Matthew | director | Purchase | 104 @ $8.19 | $852 | +0.1% of holding | −40.6% | −81.8% | 75,104 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-30 | Finke Thomas M | director | Purchase | 4,361 @ $7.80 | $34K | +17.0% of holding | −30.3% | −81.0% | 29,961 | Form 4 · filed 6 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-26 | Finke Thomas M | director | Purchase | 200 @ $8.18 | $2K | +0.8% of holding | −37.8% | −81.0% | 25,200 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-26 | Finke Thomas M | director | Purchase | 200 @ $8.15 | $2K | +0.8% of holding | −37.8% | −81.0% | 25,400 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-26 | Finke Thomas M | director | Purchase | 200 @ $8.13 | $2K | +0.8% of holding | −37.8% | −81.0% | 25,600 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-18 | O'Neil Kevin Wayne | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 5,000 @ $8.65 | $43K | +0.2% of holding | +4.9% | −68.6% | 2,101,716 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-18 | O'Neil Kevin Wayne | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 5,000 @ $8.50 | $43K | +0.2% of holding | +4.9% | −68.6% | 2,081,505 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-18 | O'Neil Kevin Wayne | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 5,000 @ $8.36 | $42K | +0.2% of holding | +4.9% | −68.6% | 2,106,716 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-18 | O'Neil Kevin Wayne | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 5,000 @ $8.36 | $42K | +0.2% of holding | +4.9% | −68.6% | 2,121,305 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-18 | O'Neil Kevin Wayne | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 5,000 @ $8.36 | $42K | +0.2% of holding | +4.9% | −68.6% | 2,126,305 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-18 | O'Neil Kevin Wayne | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 5,000 @ $8.36 | $42K | +0.2% of holding | +4.9% | −68.6% | 2,088,716 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-18 | O'Neil Kevin Wayne | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 5,000 @ $8.28 | $41K | +0.2% of holding | +4.9% | −68.6% | 2,131,505 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-18 | O'Neil Kevin Wayne | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 4,800 @ $8.21 | $39K | +0.2% of holding | +4.9% | −68.6% | 2,116,305 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-18 | O'Neil Kevin Wayne | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 3,545 @ $8.65 | $31K | +0.2% of holding | +4.9% | −68.6% | 2,094,716 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-18 | O'Neil Kevin Wayne | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 1,800 @ $8.50 | $15K | +0.1% of holding | +4.9% | −68.6% | 2,096,716 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-18 | O'Neil Kevin Wayne | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 1,602 @ $8.22 | $13K | +0.1% of holding | +4.9% | −68.6% | 2,108,318 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-18 | O'Neil Kevin Wayne | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 1,455 @ $8.50 | $12K | +0.1% of holding | +4.9% | −68.6% | 2,091,171 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-18 | O'Neil Kevin Wayne | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 1,011 @ $8.33 | $8K | +0.0% of holding | +4.9% | −68.6% | 2,082,516 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-18 | O'Neil Kevin Wayne | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 1,000 @ $8.39 | $8K | +0.0% of holding | +4.9% | −68.6% | 2,089,716 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-18 | O'Neil Kevin Wayne | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 1,000 @ $8.31 | $8K | +0.0% of holding | +4.9% | −68.6% | 2,083,516 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-18 | O'Neil Kevin Wayne | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 1,000 @ $8.29 | $8K | +0.0% of holding | +4.9% | −68.6% | 2,111,505 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-18 | O'Neil Kevin Wayne | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 987 @ $8.25 | $8K | +0.0% of holding | +4.9% | −68.6% | 2,109,905 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-18 | O'Neil Kevin Wayne | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 600 @ $8.26 | $5K | +0.0% of holding | +4.9% | −68.6% | 2,110,505 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-18 | O'Neil Kevin Wayne | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 600 @ $8.24 | $5K | +0.0% of holding | +4.9% | −68.6% | 2,108,918 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-18 | O'Neil Kevin Wayne | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 200 @ $8.50 | $2K | +0.0% of holding | +4.9% | −68.6% | 2,094,916 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-18 | O'Neil Kevin Wayne | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 200 @ $8.27 | $2K | +0.0% of holding | +4.9% | −68.6% | 2,083,716 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-18 | O'Neil Kevin Wayne | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 200 @ $8.27 | $2K | +0.0% of holding | +4.9% | −68.6% | 2,126,505 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-07-11 | ROTH JAY W | director | Sale | 3,055 @ $12.20 | $37K | −0.0% of holding | +24.4% | −35.5% | 9,244,644 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-07-11 | ROTH JAY W | director | Sale | 832 @ $12.20 | $10K | −0.1% of holding | +24.4% | −35.5% | 999,720 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-07-11 | Atkinson Heather | director | Sale | 154 @ $12.20 | $2K | −0.1% of holding | +24.4% | −35.5% | 143,998 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-07-11 | Cominsky Stephen Joseph | director | Sale | 93 @ $12.20 | $1K | −0.1% of holding | +24.4% | −35.5% | 67,049 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-07-10 | ROTH JAY W | director | Sale | 2,304 @ $12.39 | $29K | −0.0% of holding | +21.2% | −39.3% | 9,247,699 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-07-10 | ROTH JAY W | director | Sale | 627 @ $12.39 | $8K | −0.1% of holding | +21.2% | −39.3% | 1,000,552 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-07-10 | Atkinson Heather | director | Sale | 116 @ $12.39 | $1K | −0.1% of holding | +21.2% | −39.3% | 144,152 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-07-09 | ROTH JAY W | director | Sale | 5,497 @ $12.31 | $68K | −0.1% of holding | +21.9% | −43.3% | 9,250,003 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-07-09 | ROTH JAY W | director | Sale | 1,497 @ $12.31 | $18K | −0.1% of holding | +21.9% | −43.3% | 1,001,179 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-07-09 | Atkinson Heather | director | Sale | 277 @ $12.31 | $3K | −0.2% of holding | +21.9% | −43.3% | 144,268 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-07-08 | ROTH JAY W | director | Sale | 6,149 @ $12.88 | $79K | −0.1% of holding | +13.4% | −50.1% | 9,255,500 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-07-08 | ROTH JAY W | director | Sale | 1,674 @ $12.88 | $22K | −0.2% of holding | +13.4% | −50.1% | 1,002,676 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-07-08 | Atkinson Heather | director | Sale | 310 @ $12.88 | $4K | −0.2% of holding | +13.4% | −50.1% | 144,545 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
11 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-22 | Finke Thomas M | director | Award / grant | 200,000 | 200,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-05 | ROTH JAY W | director | Award / grant | 2,500,000 | 2,500,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-07 | O'Neil Kevin Wayne | tenPercentOwner | Gift | 150,000 | 1,095,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-20 | ROTH JAY W | director | Award / grant | 3,000,000 | 3,000,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-12 | Sutter Vic | officer | Award / grant | 100,000 | 100,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-05 | O'Neil Kevin Wayne | tenPercentOwner | Other acquisition | 427,000 | 2,076,505 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-05 | O'Neil Kevin Wayne | tenPercentOwner | Other acquisition | 49,190 | 1,563,962 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-28 | Finke Thomas M | director | Award / grant | 250,000 | 250,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-28 | Finke Thomas M | director | Other acquisition | 25,000 | 25,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-05 | LAVIGNE DAVID | director | Gift | 2,340 | 179,300 | Form 4 |
| 2025-01-14 | ROTH JAY W | director | Award / grant | 1,250,000 | 1,250,000 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.