Issued 2026-09-16 at $24.85 · now $24.85 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, UPST has typically landed between $15.96 and $37.12 — a range of −35.8% to +49.4% from the issuance price $24.85.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
1,421 overlapping 1 month windows · 2020-12-16 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($24.85) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where UPST has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $24.85 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $24.85 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $23.51 (-5.4%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $19.39–$27.63
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $15.96–$37.12
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 1,421 windows spanning 2020-12-16 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2022-04-11 | −68.8% | −68.8% | +4.3% |
| 2022-04-08 | −63.1% | −63.1% | +2.6% |
| 2022-04-12 | −61.0% | −66.7% | +11.4% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2021-03-08 | +163.1% | +0.0% | +251.8% |
| 2021-03-04 | +162.7% | −14.7% | +200.2% |
| 2021-03-05 | +146.4% | −8.4% | +222.3% |
1,421 overlapping windows · 2020-12-16 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~6 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
50%
+6.4%
n=6
Feb
50%
+0.5%
n=6
Mar
33%
+3.1%
n=6
Apr
33%
−8.3%
n=6
May
67%
+19.4%
n=6
Jun
50%
+2.6%
n=6
Jul
50%
+14.6%
n=6
Aug
67%
+14.9%
n=6
Sep
17%
−7.1%
n=6
Oct
60%
+2.5%
n=5
Nov
40%
+3.2%
n=5
Dec
20%
−6.1%
n=5
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-10 | Gu Paul | director | Purchase | 50,000 @ $25.55 | $1.3M | +62.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 130,000 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-09-08 | Datta Sanjay | officer | Sale | 116,000 @ $27.29 | $3.2M | −19.6% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 476,578 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-25 | Mirgorodskaya Natalia | officer | Sale | 913 @ $30.03 | $27K | −2.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 35,875 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-20 | Datta Sanjay | officer | Sale | 8,945 @ $28.09 | $251K | −3.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 292,578 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-20 | Darling Scott | officer | Sale | 7,696 @ $28.09 | $216K | −9.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 73,306 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-20 | Mirgorodskaya Natalia | officer | Sale | 586 @ $28.09 | $16K | −1.6% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 36,788 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-19 | Datta Sanjay | officer | Sale | 10,000 @ $31.46 | $315K | −3.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 301,523 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-19 | Blankmeyer Andrea | officer | Sale | 3,000 @ $29.33 | $88K | −1.9% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 152,208 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-17 | Blankmeyer Andrea | officer | Sale | 7,175 @ $29.36 | $211K | −4.4% of holding | −14.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 155,208 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-17 | Datta Sanjay | officer | Sale | 2,033 @ $29.36 | $60K | −0.6% of holding | −14.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 311,523 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-17 | Darling Scott | officer | Sale | 814 @ $29.36 | $24K | −0.9% of holding | −14.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 87,186 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-09 | Datta Sanjay | officer | Sale | 15,000 @ $30.41 | $456K | −4.6% of holding | +2.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 313,556 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-26 | Mirgorodskaya Natalia | officer | Sale | 974 @ $28.99 | $28K | −2.5% of holding | +9.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 37,374 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-20 | Datta Sanjay | officer | Sale | 7,985 @ $28.77 | $230K | −2.4% of holding | +7.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 328,556 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-20 | Darling Scott | officer | Sale | 6,634 @ $28.78 | $191K | −7.0% of holding | +7.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 88,728 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-20 | Mirgorodskaya Natalia | officer | Sale | 526 @ $28.77 | $15K | −1.4% of holding | +7.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 38,348 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-15 | Blankmeyer Andrea | officer | Sale | 4,184 @ $30.05 | $126K | −2.5% of holding | +7.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 162,484 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-15 | Blankmeyer Andrea | officer | Sale | 2,759 @ $28.96 | $80K | −1.6% of holding | +7.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 166,668 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-15 | Datta Sanjay | officer | Sale | 1,011 @ $30.03 | $30K | −0.3% of holding | +7.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 336,541 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-15 | Datta Sanjay | officer | Sale | 806 @ $28.96 | $23K | −0.2% of holding | +7.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 337,552 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-15 | Darling Scott | officer | Sale | 441 @ $29.99 | $13K | −0.4% of holding | +7.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 102,609 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-15 | Darling Scott | officer | Sale | 286 @ $28.84 | $8K | −0.3% of holding | +7.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 103,864 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-15 | Blankmeyer Andrea | officer | Sale | 101 @ $30.54 | $3K | −0.1% of holding | +7.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 162,383 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-13 | Gu Paul | director | Purchase | 50,000 @ $27.50 | $1.4M | +250.0% of holding | +13.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 70,000 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-07 | Girouard Dave | director | Purchase | 169,940 @ $29.37 | $5.0M | +2.0% of holding | +5.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 8,512,641 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-07 | Girouard Dave | director | Purchase | 300 @ $29.76 | $9K | +0.0% of holding | +5.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 8,512,941 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-02 | Mirgorodskaya Natalia | officer | Sale | 390 @ $26.02 | $10K | −1.1% of holding | −4.3% | −10.9% | 34,274 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-25 | Mirgorodskaya Natalia | officer | Sale | 866 @ $28.79 | $25K | −3.3% of holding | −4.3% | −4.0% | 25,289 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-20 | Datta Sanjay | officer | Sale | 7,982 @ $29.86 | $238K | −2.8% of holding | −0.0% | −8.2% | 276,688 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-20 | Darling Scott | officer | Sale | 6,478 @ $29.85 | $193K | −7.0% of holding | −0.0% | −8.2% | 86,120 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-20 | Mirgorodskaya Natalia | officer | Sale | 633 @ $29.90 | $19K | −2.4% of holding | −0.0% | −8.2% | 26,155 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-20 | Darling Scott | officer | Sale | 390 @ $30.25 | $12K | −1.2% of holding | −0.0% | −8.2% | 31,637 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-05 | Darling Scott | officer | Sale | 1,000 @ $50.00 | $50K | −5.4% of holding | −25.0% | −46.2% | 17,435 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-12 | Darling Scott | officer | Sale | 7,392 @ $50.00 | $370K | −29.8% of holding | −7.4% | −45.4% | 17,435 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-12 | Cooper Kerry Whorton | director | Sale | 1,500 @ $50.00 | $75K | −5.9% of holding | −7.4% | −45.4% | 23,934 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-25 | Mirgorodskaya Natalia | officer | Sale | 762 @ $38.91 | $30K | −2.8% of holding | +11.1% | −31.8% | 26,398 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-20 | Datta Sanjay | officer | Sale | 12,624 @ $36.54 | $461K | −4.2% of holding | +31.8% | −29.6% | 285,280 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-20 | Darling Scott | officer | Sale | 7,323 @ $36.55 | $268K | −6.9% of holding | +31.8% | −29.6% | 98,390 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-20 | Datta Sanjay | officer | Sale | 1,000 @ $36.99 | $37K | −0.4% of holding | +31.8% | −29.6% | 284,280 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-20 | Mirgorodskaya Natalia | officer | Sale | 741 @ $36.58 | $27K | −2.6% of holding | +31.8% | −29.6% | 27,240 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-20 | Darling Scott | officer | Sale | 400 @ $37.02 | $15K | −0.4% of holding | +31.8% | −29.6% | 97,990 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-20 | Mirgorodskaya Natalia | officer | Sale | 80 @ $36.95 | $3K | −0.3% of holding | +31.8% | −29.6% | 27,160 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-11 | Gu Paul | director | Purchase | 80,000 @ $39.23 | $3.1M | ownership Δ n/a | +25.3% | −33.8% | 80,000 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-11 | Gu Paul | director | Purchase | 20,000 @ $39.22 | $784K | ownership Δ n/a | +25.3% | −33.8% | 20,000 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-24 | Darling Scott | officer | Sale | 1,000 @ $55.01 | $55K | −0.8% of holding | −24.7% | −43.3% | 123,148 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-01 | Darling Scott | officer | Sale | 1,000 @ $54.64 | $55K | −0.8% of holding | −15.5% | −49.6% | 123,898 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-17 | Darling Scott | officer | Sale | 1,000 @ $70.01 | $70K | −0.8% of holding | −30.3% | −61.4% | 123,898 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-15 | Girouard Dave | director | Sale | 34,825 @ $64.84 | $2.3M | −36.9% of holding | −25.2% | −60.5% | 59,456 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-15 | Girouard Dave | director | Sale | 6,842 @ $65.41 | $448K | −11.5% of holding | −25.2% | −60.5% | 52,614 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-03 | Darling Scott | officer | Sale | 4,000 @ $69.41 | $278K | −3.1% of holding | −22.2% | −62.1% | 123,898 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-02 | Gu Paul | director | Sale | 2,663 @ $68.35 | $182K | −0.2% of holding | −29.3% | −66.6% | 1,149,493 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-02 | Gu Paul | director | Sale | 2,337 @ $68.91 | $161K | −0.2% of holding | −29.3% | −66.6% | 1,147,156 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-02 | Mirgorodskaya Natalia | officer | Sale | 1,439 @ $69.21 | $100K | −6.4% of holding | −29.3% | −66.6% | 21,081 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-02 | Cooper Kerry Whorton | director | Sale | 500 @ $69.21 | $35K | −1.9% of holding | −29.3% | −66.6% | 25,434 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-25 | Darling Scott | officer | Sale | 6,402 @ $68.00 | $435K | −4.9% of holding | −15.5% | −67.4% | 123,898 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-25 | Mirgorodskaya Natalia | officer | Sale | 1,024 @ $68.00 | $70K | −4.3% of holding | −15.5% | −67.4% | 22,520 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-22 | Mirgorodskaya Natalia | officer | Sale | 365 @ $70.00 | $26K | −1.5% of holding | −12.5% | −66.3% | 23,544 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-20 | Datta Sanjay | officer | Sale | 13,473 @ $61.12 | $823K | −4.3% of holding | +2.0% | −62.8% | 297,904 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-20 | Darling Scott | officer | Sale | 6,713 @ $61.12 | $410K | −4.9% of holding | +2.0% | −62.8% | 130,440 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-20 | Mirgorodskaya Natalia | officer | Sale | 1,079 @ $61.12 | $66K | −4.4% of holding | +2.0% | −62.8% | 23,544 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
160 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-08 | Datta Sanjay | officer | Option exercise | 300,000 | 592,578 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-08 | Datta Sanjay | officer | Option exercise | 300,000 | 302,607 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-29 | Wennes Timothy H | director | Award / grant | 6,476 | 6,476 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-29 | Terry Hilliard C. III | director | Award / grant | 6,476 | 37,432 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-29 | Hentges Mary | director | Award / grant | 6,476 | 37,149 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-29 | O'Kelly Ciaran | director | Award / grant | 6,476 | 39,484 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-29 | Bernard Peter J | director | Award / grant | 6,476 | 11,392 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-29 | Cooper Kerry Whorton | director | Award / grant | 6,476 | 6,476 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | Mirgorodskaya Natalia | officer | Option exercise | 4,600 | 38,874 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | Mirgorodskaya Natalia | officer | Option exercise | 4,600 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-07 | Girouard Dave | director | Option exercise | 835,075 | 9,348,016 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-07 | Girouard Dave | director | Option exercise | 835,075 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | Blankmeyer Andrea | officer | Award / grant | 148,006 | 148,006 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | Blankmeyer Andrea | officer | Award / grant | 169,427 | 169,427 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-28 | Mirgorodskaya Natalia | officer | Award / grant | 9,375 | 34,664 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-28 | Gu Paul | director | Award / grant | 912,702 | 912,702 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-28 | Mirgorodskaya Natalia | officer | Award / grant | 5,938 | 5,938 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-28 | Datta Sanjay | officer | Award / grant | 61,670 | 338,358 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-28 | Datta Sanjay | officer | Award / grant | 185,008 | 185,008 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-28 | Darling Scott | officer | Award / grant | 24,668 | 104,150 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-28 | Darling Scott | officer | Award / grant | 74,003 | 74,003 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-20 | Darling Scott | officer | Other acquisition | 6,638 | 79,482 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-20 | Darling Scott | officer | Other acquisition | 6,638 | 32,027 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-20 | Darling Scott | officer | Other acquisition | 6,638 | 32,027 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-20 | Darling Scott | officer | Other acquisition | 6,638 | 79,482 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-22 | Darling Scott | officer | Option exercise | 7,564 | 24,999 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-22 | Darling Scott | officer | Option exercise | 7,564 | 186,963 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-12 | O'Kelly Ciaran | director | Award / grant | 1,168 | 33,008 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-12 | Bernard Peter J | director | Award / grant | 834 | 4,916 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-12 | Cooper Kerry Whorton | director | Award / grant | 1,459 | 25,393 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-05 | Darling Scott | officer | Option exercise | 1,000 | 93,598 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-05 | Darling Scott | officer | Option exercise | 1,000 | 194,527 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-05 | Darling Scott | officer | Other acquisition | 1,000 | 92,598 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-05 | Darling Scott | officer | Other acquisition | 1,000 | 92,598 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-05 | Darling Scott | officer | Other acquisition | 1,000 | 18,435 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-05 | Darling Scott | officer | Other acquisition | 1,000 | 18,435 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-12 | Darling Scott | officer | Option exercise | 2,000 | 94,598 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-12 | Darling Scott | officer | Option exercise | 2,000 | 195,527 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-12 | Darling Scott | officer | Other acquisition | 2,000 | 92,598 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-12 | Darling Scott | officer | Other acquisition | 2,000 | 92,598 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.