Issued 2026-09-16 at $14.49 · now $14.49 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, TTD has typically landed between $10.32 and $18.21 — a range of −28.7% to +25.7% from the issuance price $14.49.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
2,489 overlapping 1 month windows · 2016-09-21 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($14.49) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where TTD has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $14.49 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $14.49 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $14.3 (-1.3%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $12.79–$15.81
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $10.32–$18.21
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 2,489 windows spanning 2016-09-21 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2025-02-12 | −55.9% | −55.9% | +0.0% |
| 2025-02-11 | −55.2% | −55.2% | +1.7% |
| 2020-02-18 | −53.2% | −53.2% | +2.3% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2020-04-03 | +89.3% | +0.0% | +89.3% |
| 2022-07-14 | +80.8% | +0.0% | +80.8% |
| 2018-05-04 | +77.9% | +0.0% | +77.9% |
2,489 overlapping windows · 2016-09-21 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.
$8.1B
market cap
$0.89
EPS (TTM)
19.4
P/E (TTM)
2026-08-06
next earnings
Revenue$2.9B
'20'25
Net income$443M
'20'25
Free cash flow$796M
'20'25
Net margin · by yr15.3%
'20'25
ROE · by yr17.8%
'20'25
Debt / equity · by yr0.18
'20'25
Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.
iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 80 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.- DCF (intrinsic)$35.54
- Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 34.2× · n=80$30.44
- Analyst target · range $11.60–$53.00$25.00
- Current price · last close 2026-09-16$14.49
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~10 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
60%
+0.0%
n=10
Feb
80%
+10.4%
n=10
Mar
30%
−11.0%
n=10
Apr
70%
+6.6%
n=10
May
60%
+13.2%
n=10
Jun
60%
+5.3%
n=10
Jul
70%
+6.7%
n=10
Aug
40%
+4.8%
n=10
Sep
50%
−1.3%
n=10
Oct
60%
−1.0%
n=10
Nov
60%
+10.6%
n=10
Dec
20%
−7.0%
n=10
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-28 | Jacobson Samantha | director | Sale | 53,681 @ $21.14 | $1.1M | −80.4% of holding | −10.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 13,099 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-05 | FALBERG KATHRYN E | director | Sale | 102,828 @ $30.45 | $3.1M | −98.1% of holding | −22.4% | −63.4% | 1,946 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-05 | FALBERG KATHRYN E | director | Sale | 50,000 @ $30.48 | $1.5M | −100.0% of holding | −22.4% | −63.4% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-04 | Green Jeffrey Terry | director | Purchase | 2,314,304 @ $25.08 | $58.0M | +62.8% of holding | −8.4% | −54.5% | 6,000,000 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-03-03 | Green Jeffrey Terry | director | Purchase | 1,685,696 @ $24.97 | $42.1M | +84.3% of holding | −8.7% | −57.4% | 3,685,696 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-02 | Green Jeffrey Terry | director | Purchase | 1,472,676 @ $24.16 | $35.6M | +279.3% of holding | −1.7% | −55.9% | 2,000,000 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-02 | Green Jeffrey Terry | director | Purchase | 527,324 @ $23.49 | $12.4M | ownership Δ n/a | −1.7% | −55.9% | 527,324 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-10 | Cunningham Andrea Lee | director | Sale | 1,403 @ $48.20 | $68K | −21.8% of holding | +14.0% | −45.2% | 5,035 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-07 | GRANT JAY R | officer | Sale | 20,327 @ $91.00 | $1.8M | −8.5% of holding | −43.7% | −79.2% | 218,246 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-07 | GRANT JAY R | officer | Sale | 15,530 @ $91.30 | $1.4M | −6.1% of holding | −43.7% | −79.2% | 238,573 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-07 | GRANT JAY R | officer | Sale | 10,313 @ $91.30 | $942K | −4.1% of holding | −43.7% | −79.2% | 238,573 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-07 | GRANT JAY R | officer | Sale | 5,120 @ $91.30 | $467K | −2.1% of holding | −43.7% | −79.2% | 238,573 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-16 | Schenkein Laura | officer | Sale | 4,225 @ $76.56 | $323K | −0.6% of holding | −11.9% | −58.8% | 746,486 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-16 | Schenkein Laura | officer | Sale | 584 @ $77.39 | $45K | −0.1% of holding | −11.9% | −58.8% | 745,902 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-13 | WELLS DAVID B | director | Sale | 28,638 @ $79.88 | $2.3M | −29.9% of holding | −12.6% | −60.5% | 66,985 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-13 | Green Jeffrey Terry | director | Sale | 2,797 @ $80.06 | $224K | −14.1% of holding | −12.6% | −60.5% | 17,018 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-05-13 | Green Jeffrey Terry | director | Sale | 396 @ $80.08 | $32K | −0.1% of holding | −12.6% | −60.5% | 670,901 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-05-12 | Green Jeffrey Terry | director | Sale | 23,945 @ $80.03 | $1.9M | −58.5% of holding | −12.0% | −63.1% | 17,018 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-12 | Green Jeffrey Terry | director | Sale | 2,739 @ $80.03 | $219K | −0.4% of holding | −12.0% | −63.1% | 671,297 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-09 | Schenkein Laura | officer | Sale | 6,374 @ $70.00 | $446K | −0.8% of holding | −5.0% | −59.0% | 756,481 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-02-11 | Green Jeffrey Terry | director | Sale | 256,075 @ $120.47 | $30.8M | −70.4% of holding | −46.3% | −62.0% | 107,625 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-02-11 | Green Jeffrey Terry | director | Sale | 100,205 @ $121.16 | $12.1M | −93.1% of holding | −46.3% | −62.0% | 7,420 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-02-11 | Green Jeffrey Terry | director | Sale | 28,727 @ $120.47 | $3.5M | −4.0% of holding | −46.3% | −62.0% | 685,309 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-02-11 | Green Jeffrey Terry | director | Sale | 10,973 @ $121.18 | $1.3M | −1.6% of holding | −46.3% | −62.0% | 674,336 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-02-11 | Green Jeffrey Terry | director | Sale | 3,720 @ $122.21 | $455K | −50.1% of holding | −46.3% | −62.0% | 3,700 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-02-11 | Green Jeffrey Terry | director | Sale | 300 @ $122.11 | $37K | −0.0% of holding | −46.3% | −62.0% | 674,036 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-01-30 | Green Jeffrey Terry | director | Sale | 41,546 @ $120.28 | $5.0M | −31.6% of holding | −40.0% | −31.0% | 89,782 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-01-30 | Green Jeffrey Terry | director | Sale | 33,936 @ $121.47 | $4.1M | −37.8% of holding | −40.0% | −31.0% | 55,846 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-01-30 | Green Jeffrey Terry | director | Sale | 30,565 @ $123.44 | $3.8M | −65.6% of holding | −40.0% | −31.0% | 15,996 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-01-30 | Green Jeffrey Terry | director | Sale | 12,296 @ $124.10 | $1.5M | −76.9% of holding | −40.0% | −31.0% | 3,700 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-01-30 | Green Jeffrey Terry | director | Sale | 9,285 @ $122.32 | $1.1M | −16.6% of holding | −40.0% | −31.0% | 46,561 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-01-30 | Green Jeffrey Terry | director | Sale | 7,657 @ $120.12 | $920K | −1.0% of holding | −40.0% | −31.0% | 722,736 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-01-30 | Green Jeffrey Terry | director | Sale | 3,900 @ $121.51 | $474K | −0.5% of holding | −40.0% | −31.0% | 718,836 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-01-30 | Green Jeffrey Terry | director | Sale | 2,809 @ $123.40 | $347K | −0.4% of holding | −40.0% | −31.0% | 715,227 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-01-30 | Green Jeffrey Terry | director | Sale | 1,191 @ $124.11 | $148K | −0.2% of holding | −40.0% | −31.0% | 714,036 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-01-30 | Green Jeffrey Terry | director | Sale | 800 @ $122.42 | $98K | −0.1% of holding | −40.0% | −31.0% | 718,036 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-01-28 | Jacobson Samantha | director | Sale | 1,666 @ $118.34 | $197K | −1.8% of holding | −37.5% | −33.9% | 91,578 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-01-28 | Jacobson Samantha | director | Sale | 1,094 @ $118.69 | $130K | −1.2% of holding | −37.5% | −33.9% | 90,909 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-01-28 | Jacobson Samantha | director | Sale | 869 @ $118.98 | $103K | −0.9% of holding | −37.5% | −33.9% | 90,709 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-01-28 | Jacobson Samantha | director | Sale | 369 @ $118.00 | $44K | −0.4% of holding | −37.5% | −33.9% | 90,709 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-01-28 | Jacobson Samantha | director | Sale | 200 @ $119.13 | $24K | −0.2% of holding | −37.5% | −33.9% | 90,709 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-01-28 | Jacobson Samantha | director | Sale | 100 @ $117.88 | $12K | −0.1% of holding | −37.5% | −33.9% | 90,709 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-01-22 | Green Jeffrey Terry | director | Sale | 164,166 @ $120.86 | $19.8M | −44.1% of holding | −39.2% | −34.8% | 207,904 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-01-22 | Green Jeffrey Terry | director | Sale | 109,350 @ $122.83 | $13.4M | −83.3% of holding | −39.2% | −34.8% | 21,935 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-01-22 | Green Jeffrey Terry | director | Sale | 76,619 @ $121.98 | $9.3M | −36.9% of holding | −39.2% | −34.8% | 131,285 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-01-22 | Green Jeffrey Terry | director | Sale | 18,058 @ $120.85 | $2.2M | −2.3% of holding | −39.2% | −34.8% | 753,170 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-01-22 | Green Jeffrey Terry | director | Sale | 16,666 @ $125.09 | $2.1M | −79.1% of holding | −39.2% | −34.8% | 4,400 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-01-22 | Green Jeffrey Terry | director | Sale | 12,065 @ $122.84 | $1.5M | −1.6% of holding | −39.2% | −34.8% | 732,263 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-01-22 | Green Jeffrey Terry | director | Sale | 8,842 @ $121.98 | $1.1M | −1.2% of holding | −39.2% | −34.8% | 744,328 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-01-22 | Green Jeffrey Terry | director | Sale | 1,770 @ $125.10 | $221K | −0.2% of holding | −39.2% | −34.8% | 730,493 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-01-22 | Green Jeffrey Terry | director | Sale | 869 @ $124.55 | $108K | −4.0% of holding | −39.2% | −34.8% | 21,066 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
249 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-14 | Olmstead Nathan | officer | Award / grant | 398,262 | 644,324 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-14 | Davis Tahnil R. | officer | Award / grant | 217,233 | 459,941 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-14 | GRANT JAY R | officer | Award / grant | 398,262 | 732,728 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-14 | Kundra Vivek | officer | Award / grant | 724,112 | 958,192 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | GRANT JAY R | officer | Withheld for tax | 5,779 | 334,466 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | Davis Tahnil R. | officer | Withheld for tax | 5,317 | 242,708 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | Kundra Vivek | officer | Withheld for tax | 4,713 | 234,080 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | GRANT JAY R | officer | Withheld for tax | 2,848 | 340,245 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | GRANT JAY R | officer | Withheld for tax | 2,652 | 345,169 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | Kundra Vivek | officer | Withheld for tax | 2,320 | 238,793 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | GRANT JAY R | officer | Withheld for tax | 2,076 | 343,093 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | Davis Tahnil R. | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,373 | 248,025 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | Davis Tahnil R. | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,220 | 250,449 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | Davis Tahnil R. | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,051 | 249,398 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | Green Jeffrey Terry | director | Gift | 52,910 | 550,098 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | Green Jeffrey Terry | director | Gift | 52,910 | 137,548 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-09 | Price Penry W | director | Award / grant | 3,602 | 3,602 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-09 | Price Penry W | director | Award / grant | 900 | 900 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-09 | Price Penry W | director | Award / grant | 25,505 | 25,505 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-09 | Olmstead Nathan | officer | Award / grant | 246,062 | 246,062 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-09 | Olmstead Nathan | officer | Award / grant | 439,753 | 439,753 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-09 | Price Penry W | director | Award / grant | 20,893 | 20,893 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-11 | Haddad David Alan | director | Award / grant | 11,820 | 25,013 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-11 | Haddad David Alan | director | Award / grant | 13,193 | 13,193 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-24 | Jacobson Samantha | director | Award / grant | 12,477 | 66,780 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-18 | Jacobson Samantha | director | Disposition | 30,037 | 272,835 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-18 | Jacobson Samantha | director | Disposition | 9,589 | 302,872 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-18 | Jacobson Samantha | director | Disposition | 61,784 | 211,051 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-18 | Jacobson Samantha | director | Disposition | 156,748 | 54,303 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | Kundra Vivek | officer | Withheld for tax | 6,194 | 244,259 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | GRANT JAY R | officer | Withheld for tax | 5,754 | 347,821 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | Davis Tahnil R. | officer | Withheld for tax | 3,750 | 251,669 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | Jacobson Samantha | director | Withheld for tax | 3,225 | 312,461 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | Kundra Vivek | officer | Withheld for tax | 3,146 | 241,113 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | GRANT JAY R | officer | Withheld for tax | 2,076 | 353,575 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | GRANT JAY R | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,932 | 357,165 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | GRANT JAY R | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,514 | 355,651 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | Jacobson Samantha | director | Withheld for tax | 1,481 | 315,686 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | GRANT JAY R | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,288 | 359,097 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | Jacobson Samantha | director | Withheld for tax | 1,080 | 317,167 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.
As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date
Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793
A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).
| Member | Chamber | Type | Filed | Traded | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-07-06 | 2026-06-16 | $1–15K |
| Gilbert Cisneros | House | sale | 2026-07-02 | 2026-06-16 | $1–15K |
| Gilbert Cisneros | House | purchase | 2026-06-08 | 2026-05-15 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-05-11 | 2026-04-13 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-05-11 | 2026-04-24 | $1–15K |
| Gilbert Cisneros | House | sale | 2026-05-08 | 2026-04-14 | $1–15K |
| Byron Donalds | House | sale | 2026-04-08 | 2026-03-20 | $1–15K |
| Byron Donalds | House | sale | 2026-04-08 | 2026-03-20 | $1–15K |
| Gilbert Cisneros | House | purchase | 2026-04-07 | 2026-03-13 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-04-07 | 2026-03-30 | $1–15K |
| Gilbert Cisneros | House | sale | 2026-03-09 | 2026-02-10 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-03-09 | 2026-02-17 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-03-09 | 2026-02-24 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-03-09 | 2026-02-05 | $1–15K |
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.