Issued 2026-09-16 at $6.89 · now $6.89 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, TRDA has typically landed between $4.70 and $9.48 — a range of −31.8% to +37.6% from the issuance price $6.89.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
1,203 overlapping 1 month windows · 2021-10-29 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($6.89) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where TRDA has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $6.89 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $6.89 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $6.86 (-0.4%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $5.97–$7.76
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $4.7–$9.48
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 1,203 windows spanning 2021-10-29 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2026-05-06 | −60.3% | −64.8% | +0.0% |
| 2021-11-18 | −59.5% | −59.5% | +0.0% |
| 2026-04-20 | −58.3% | −58.3% | +18.2% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2022-06-01 | +109.4% | +0.0% | +125.8% |
| 2022-05-25 | +98.2% | −8.6% | +98.2% |
| 2022-06-02 | +94.7% | +0.0% | +113.5% |
1,203 overlapping windows · 2021-10-29 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Pending catalysts
- 2029-03-01 — Trial primary completion: Phase 1/Phase PHASE2 primary completion: A Study in Participants With Duchenne Muscular Dystrophy Amenable to Exon 45 Skipping to Evaluate the Safety and Efficacy of ENTR-601-45 (source, as of 2026-08-14)
- 2029-03-28 — Trial primary completion: Phase 1/Phase PHASE2 primary completion: A Study in Participants With Duchenne Muscular Dystrophy Amenable to Exon 44 Skipping to Evaluate the Safety and Efficacy of ENTR-601-44 (source, as of 2026-08-14)
Public, scheduled events — dated attention, not a prediction of the outcome. See the FDA catalysts page for the historical base rate.
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~5 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
20%
−12.0%
n=5
Feb
60%
−0.3%
n=5
Mar
60%
−4.1%
n=5
Apr
40%
−12.8%
n=5
May
40%
−4.6%
n=5
Jun
60%
+19.4%
n=5
Jul
60%
+3.0%
n=5
Aug
40%
−2.5%
n=5
Sep
60%
+5.2%
n=5
Oct
100%
+18.3%
n=4
Nov
60%
+7.0%
n=5
Dec
40%
−9.8%
n=5
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-09 | MPM BioVentures 2014, L.P. | other | Sale | 28,837 @ $7.13 | $206K | −0.7% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 3,885,115 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-09-09 | MPM BIOVENTURES 2018, L.P. | other | Sale | 28,837 @ $7.13 | $206K | −0.7% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 3,885,115 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-09-08 | MPM BioVentures 2014, L.P. | other | Sale | 192,500 @ $7.41 | $1.4M | −4.7% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 3,913,952 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-08 | MPM BIOVENTURES 2018, L.P. | other | Sale | 192,500 @ $7.41 | $1.4M | −4.7% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 3,913,952 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-04 | MPM BioVentures 2014, L.P. | other | Sale | 38,500 @ $7.11 | $274K | −0.9% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 4,106,452 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-04 | MPM BIOVENTURES 2018, L.P. | other | Sale | 38,500 @ $7.11 | $274K | −0.9% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 4,106,452 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-03 | MPM BioVentures 2014, L.P. | other | Sale | 32,263 @ $7.17 | $231K | −0.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 4,144,952 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-09-03 | MPM BIOVENTURES 2018, L.P. | other | Sale | 32,263 @ $7.17 | $231K | −0.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 4,144,952 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-09-02 | MPM BIOVENTURES 2018, L.P. | other | Sale | 25,131 @ $7.19 | $181K | −0.6% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 4,177,215 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-02 | MPM BioVentures 2014, L.P. | other | Sale | 25,131 @ $7.19 | $181K | −0.6% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 4,177,215 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-01 | MPM BioVentures 2014, L.P. | other | Sale | 29,088 @ $7.06 | $205K | −0.7% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 4,202,346 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-01 | MPM BIOVENTURES 2018, L.P. | other | Sale | 29,088 @ $7.06 | $205K | −0.7% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 4,202,346 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-31 | MPM BioVentures 2014, L.P. | other | Sale | 44,259 @ $6.99 | $309K | −1.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 4,231,434 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-31 | MPM BIOVENTURES 2018, L.P. | other | Sale | 44,259 @ $6.99 | $309K | −1.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 4,231,434 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-28 | MPM BioVentures 2014, L.P. | other | Sale | 3,733 @ $7.01 | $26K | −0.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 4,275,693 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-28 | MPM BIOVENTURES 2018, L.P. | other | Sale | 3,733 @ $7.01 | $26K | −0.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 4,275,693 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-27 | MPM BioVentures 2014, L.P. | other | Sale | 38,922 @ $7.20 | $280K | −0.9% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 4,279,426 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-27 | MPM BIOVENTURES 2018, L.P. | other | Sale | 38,922 @ $7.20 | $280K | −0.9% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 4,279,426 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-26 | MPM BIOVENTURES 2018, L.P. | other | Sale | 14,569 @ $7.06 | $103K | −0.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 4,318,348 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-26 | MPM BioVentures 2014, L.P. | other | Sale | 14,569 @ $7.06 | $103K | −0.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 4,318,348 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-25 | MPM BIOVENTURES 2018, L.P. | other | Sale | 26,522 @ $7.54 | $200K | −0.6% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 4,332,917 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-25 | MPM BioVentures 2014, L.P. | other | Sale | 26,522 @ $7.54 | $200K | −0.6% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 4,332,917 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-24 | MPM BioVentures 2014, L.P. | other | Sale | 21,623 @ $7.34 | $159K | −0.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 4,359,439 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-24 | MPM BIOVENTURES 2018, L.P. | other | Sale | 21,623 @ $7.34 | $159K | −0.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 4,359,439 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-10 | PARMAR KUSH | director | Sale | 92,444 @ $7.00 | $647K | −3.3% of holding | +3.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,691,337 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-07 | 5AM Ventures V, L.P. | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 52,317 @ $6.85 | $358K | −1.8% of holding | +10.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,783,781 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-07 | PARMAR KUSH | director | Sale | 52,317 @ $6.85 | $358K | −1.8% of holding | +10.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,783,781 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-06 | PARMAR KUSH | director | Sale | 10,494 @ $7.00 | $73K | −0.4% of holding | +3.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,836,098 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-06 | 5AM Ventures V, L.P. | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 10,494 @ $7.00 | $73K | −0.4% of holding | +3.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,836,098 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-31 | 5AM Ventures V, L.P. | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 1,718 @ $6.85 | $12K | −0.1% of holding | +1.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,846,592 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-31 | PARMAR KUSH | director | Sale | 1,718 @ $6.85 | $12K | −0.1% of holding | +1.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,846,592 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-30 | PARMAR KUSH | director | Sale | 114,756 @ $6.93 | $795K | −3.9% of holding | −0.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,848,310 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-30 | 5AM Ventures V, L.P. | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 114,756 @ $6.93 | $795K | −3.9% of holding | −0.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,848,310 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-20 | Zeiher Bernhardt G | director | Purchase | 5,000 @ $5.86 | $29K | ownership Δ n/a | +16.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 5,000 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-04 | Sethuraman Natarajan | officer | Sale | 25,907 @ $15.39 | $399K | −10.7% of holding | −63.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 216,317 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-05-04 | Dowden Nathan J | officer | Sale | 15,000 @ $15.33 | $230K | −7.0% of holding | −63.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 198,588 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-04-01 | WENTWORTH KORY JAMES | officer | Sale | 2,500 @ $12.95 | $32K | −2.1% of holding | −2.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 119,010 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-10 | Dowden Nathan J | officer | Sale | 11,894 @ $13.05 | $155K | −5.7% of holding | +5.8% | −59.3% | 198,588 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-10 | WENTWORTH KORY JAMES | officer | Sale | 11,388 @ $13.02 | $148K | −8.6% of holding | +5.8% | −59.3% | 121,510 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-09 | WENTWORTH KORY JAMES | officer | Sale | 5,089 @ $13.00 | $66K | −3.7% of holding | +12.8% | −54.3% | 132,898 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-09 | Dowden Nathan J | officer | Sale | 3,116 @ $13.02 | $41K | −1.5% of holding | +12.8% | −54.3% | 210,482 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-04 | WENTWORTH KORY JAMES | officer | Sale | 7,988 @ $12.25 | $98K | −5.5% of holding | +9.2% | −53.9% | 137,987 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-21 | WENTWORTH KORY JAMES | officer | Sale | 8,910 @ $9.98 | $89K | −7.5% of holding | +0.4% | −48.9% | 110,026 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-20 | BAKER BROS. ADVISORS LP | director | Purchase | 13,386 @ $9.07 | $121K | +0.3% of holding | +10.6% | −42.6% | 4,678,310 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-20 | BAKER BROS. ADVISORS LP | director | Purchase | 13,082 @ $9.07 | $119K | +0.3% of holding | +10.6% | −42.6% | 4,691,392 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-20 | BAKER BROS. ADVISORS LP | director | Purchase | 1,213 @ $9.07 | $11K | +0.3% of holding | +10.6% | −42.6% | 380,152 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-20 | BAKER BROS. ADVISORS LP | director | Purchase | 1,186 @ $9.07 | $11K | +0.3% of holding | +10.6% | −42.6% | 381,338 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-14 | PARMAR KUSH | director | Sale | 200,000 @ $8.80 | $1.8M | −6.3% of holding | +28.9% | −45.2% | 2,963,066 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-14 | 5AM Ventures V, L.P. | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 200,000 @ $8.80 | $1.8M | −6.3% of holding | +28.9% | −45.2% | 2,963,066 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-12 | BAKER BROS. ADVISORS LP | director | Purchase | 80,881 @ $7.73 | $625K | +1.8% of holding | +38.6% | −29.1% | 4,653,430 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-11-12 | BAKER BROS. ADVISORS LP | director | Purchase | 11,494 @ $7.95 | $91K | +0.2% of holding | +38.6% | −29.1% | 4,664,924 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-11-12 | BAKER BROS. ADVISORS LP | director | Purchase | 7,321 @ $7.73 | $57K | +2.0% of holding | +38.6% | −29.1% | 377,899 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-11-12 | BAKER BROS. ADVISORS LP | director | Purchase | 1,040 @ $7.95 | $8K | +0.3% of holding | +38.6% | −29.1% | 378,939 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-11-11 | BAKER BROS. ADVISORS LP | director | Purchase | 30,879 @ $7.54 | $233K | +0.7% of holding | +39.5% | −21.5% | 4,572,549 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-11 | BAKER BROS. ADVISORS LP | director | Purchase | 11,701 @ $7.39 | $86K | +0.3% of holding | +39.5% | −21.5% | 4,541,670 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-11 | BAKER BROS. ADVISORS LP | director | Purchase | 2,795 @ $7.54 | $21K | +0.8% of holding | +39.5% | −21.5% | 370,578 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-11 | BAKER BROS. ADVISORS LP | director | Purchase | 1,059 @ $7.39 | $8K | +0.3% of holding | +39.5% | −21.5% | 367,783 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-10 | BAKER BROS. ADVISORS LP | director | Purchase | 25,364 @ $7.21 | $183K | +0.6% of holding | +45.0% | −8.7% | 4,527,022 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-10 | BAKER BROS. ADVISORS LP | director | Purchase | 2,947 @ $7.22 | $21K | +0.1% of holding | +45.0% | −8.7% | 4,529,969 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-10 | BAKER BROS. ADVISORS LP | director | Purchase | 2,296 @ $7.21 | $17K | +0.6% of holding | +45.0% | −8.7% | 366,457 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
52 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-02 | Doshi Dipal | director | Withheld for tax | 8,724 | 517,290 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-02 | Dowden Nathan J | officer | Withheld for tax | 2,528 | 196,060 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-02 | Sethuraman Natarajan | officer | Withheld for tax | 2,079 | 214,238 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-02 | WENTWORTH KORY JAMES | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,733 | 117,277 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | Chapman Gina | director | Award / grant | 19,000 | 19,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | Zeiher Bernhardt G | director | Award / grant | 19,000 | 19,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | Thistle Mary | director | Award / grant | 19,000 | 19,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | KIM PETER S | director | Award / grant | 19,000 | 19,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | PARMAR KUSH | director | Award / grant | 19,000 | 19,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | Radhakrishnan Maha | director | Award / grant | 19,000 | 19,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-04 | Dowden Nathan J | officer | Option exercise | 15,000 | 213,588 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-04 | Dowden Nathan J | officer | Option exercise | 15,000 | 49,831 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-03 | Doshi Dipal | director | Withheld for tax | 19,181 | 526,014 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-03 | Dowden Nathan J | officer | Withheld for tax | 14,038 | 213,598 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-03 | Sethuraman Natarajan | officer | Withheld for tax | 7,577 | 242,224 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-03 | WENTWORTH KORY JAMES | officer | Withheld for tax | 5,712 | 145,975 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-02 | Doshi Dipal | director | Withheld for tax | 9,869 | 545,195 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-02 | Dowden Nathan J | officer | Withheld for tax | 7,223 | 227,636 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-02 | Sethuraman Natarajan | officer | Withheld for tax | 3,898 | 249,801 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-02 | WENTWORTH KORY JAMES | officer | Withheld for tax | 2,939 | 151,687 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-01 | Doshi Dipal | director | Award / grant | 139,400 | 555,064 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-01 | Dowden Nathan J | officer | Award / grant | 55,800 | 234,859 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-01 | Dowden Nathan J | officer | Award / grant | 83,200 | 83,200 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-01 | Sethuraman Natarajan | officer | Award / grant | 55,800 | 253,699 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-01 | Sethuraman Natarajan | officer | Award / grant | 83,200 | 83,200 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-01 | Doshi Dipal | director | Award / grant | 208,000 | 208,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-01 | WENTWORTH KORY JAMES | officer | Award / grant | 66,600 | 66,600 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-01 | WENTWORTH KORY JAMES | officer | Award / grant | 44,600 | 154,626 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-02 | Doshi Dipal | director | Withheld for tax | 8,723 | 415,664 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-02 | Sethuraman Natarajan | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,760 | 197,899 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-02 | Dowden Nathan J | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,746 | 179,059 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-02 | WENTWORTH KORY JAMES | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,734 | 118,936 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-11 | KIM PETER S | director | Award / grant | 19,000 | 19,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-11 | Chapman Gina | director | Award / grant | 19,000 | 19,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-11 | Zeiher Bernhardt G | director | Award / grant | 19,000 | 19,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-11 | PARMAR KUSH | director | Award / grant | 19,000 | 19,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-11 | Thistle Mary | director | Award / grant | 19,000 | 19,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-01 | Radhakrishnan Maha | director | Award / grant | 38,000 | 38,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-04-03 | WENTWORTH KORY JAMES | officer | Option exercise | 11,134 | 120,670 | Form 4 |
| 2025-04-03 | WENTWORTH KORY JAMES | officer | Option exercise | 11,134 | 20,023 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.