Issued 2026-09-16 at $192.43 · now $192.43 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, TKO has typically landed between $172.87 and $222.62 — a range of −10.2% to +15.7% from the issuance price $192.43.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
4,685 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($192.43) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where TKO has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $192.43 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $192.43 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $196.21 (+2.0%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $184.18–$208.25
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $172.87–$222.62
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,685 windows spanning 2008-01-02 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2014-04-22 | −52.0% | −52.0% | +0.0% |
| 2014-04-21 | −51.9% | −51.9% | +0.0% |
| 2014-04-23 | −51.1% | −51.1% | +0.5% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2015-01-15 | +68.4% | −2.4% | +68.4% |
| 2015-01-20 | +64.3% | +0.0% | +72.7% |
| 2015-01-26 | +60.0% | +0.0% | +65.6% |
4,685 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.
$13.5B
market cap
$2.73
EPS (TTM)
66.2
P/E (TTM)
2026-08-03
next earnings
Revenue$4.7B
'20'25
Net income$195M
'20'25
Free cash flow$1.2B
'20'25
Net margin · by yr4.1%
'20'25
ROE · by yr5.2%
'20'25
Debt / equity · by yr1.09
'20'25
Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.
iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 17 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.- DCF (intrinsic)$775.15
- Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 16.0× · n=17$43.75
- Analyst target · range $210.00–$240.00$229.00
- Current price · last close 2026-09-16$192.43
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
72%
+5.0%
n=18
Feb
53%
+3.9%
n=19
Mar
74%
+3.0%
n=19
Apr
42%
−0.9%
n=19
May
53%
+2.1%
n=19
Jun
58%
+3.2%
n=19
Jul
74%
+2.6%
n=19
Aug
58%
+2.3%
n=19
Sep
58%
+0.3%
n=19
Oct
39%
−1.5%
n=18
Nov
61%
+2.4%
n=18
Dec
67%
+2.6%
n=18
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-14 | Khan Nick | director | Sale | 4,256 @ $194.12 | $826K | −11.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 33,751 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-14 | Khan Nick | director | Sale | 1,421 @ $194.99 | $277K | −4.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 32,330 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-14 | Khan Nick | director | Sale | 1,333 @ $193.13 | $257K | −3.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 38,007 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-14 | Khan Nick | director | Sale | 1,279 @ $195.95 | $251K | −4.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 31,051 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-14 | Khan Nick | director | Sale | 1,200 @ $197.12 | $237K | −3.9% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 29,851 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-14 | Khan Nick | director | Sale | 100 @ $197.64 | $20K | −0.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 29,751 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-19 | Khan Nick | director | Sale | 2,246 @ $201.11 | $452K | −5.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 39,940 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-19 | Khan Nick | director | Sale | 1,400 @ $199.18 | $279K | −3.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 42,786 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-19 | Khan Nick | director | Sale | 1,000 @ $197.60 | $198K | −2.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 44,186 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-19 | Khan Nick | director | Sale | 600 @ $201.91 | $121K | −1.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 39,340 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-19 | Khan Nick | director | Sale | 600 @ $200.05 | $120K | −1.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 42,186 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-19 | Khan Nick | director | Sale | 400 @ $192.84 | $77K | −0.9% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 45,486 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-19 | Khan Nick | director | Sale | 300 @ $196.31 | $59K | −0.7% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 45,186 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-18 | Emanuel Ariel | director | Sale | 24,702 @ $194.39 | $4.8M | −12.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 174,334 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-18 | SHAPIRO MARK S | director | Sale | 19,120 @ $194.39 | $3.7M | −11.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 147,071 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-18 | Schleimer Andrew M | officer | Sale | 9,942 @ $194.39 | $1.9M | −20.7% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 38,051 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-18 | Khan Nick | director | Sale | 8,248 @ $194.39 | $1.6M | −15.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 45,886 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-13 | Khan Nick | director | Sale | 3,800 @ $196.29 | $746K | −7.8% of holding | −1.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 44,633 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-13 | Khan Nick | director | Sale | 2,400 @ $196.96 | $473K | −5.4% of holding | −1.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 42,233 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-13 | Khan Nick | director | Sale | 1,989 @ $199.14 | $396K | −4.8% of holding | −1.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 39,344 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-13 | Khan Nick | director | Sale | 900 @ $198.24 | $178K | −2.1% of holding | −1.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 41,333 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-13 | Khan Nick | director | Sale | 500 @ $195.04 | $98K | −1.0% of holding | −1.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 48,433 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-21 | Khan Nick | director | Sale | 12,866 @ $181.11 | $2.3M | −20.8% of holding | +8.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 48,933 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-21 | Khan Nick | director | Sale | 132 @ $181.09 | $24K | −0.2% of holding | +8.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 61,799 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-20 | Khan Nick | director | Sale | 3,682 @ $182.54 | $672K | −5.1% of holding | +1.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 68,330 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-20 | Khan Nick | director | Sale | 3,299 @ $183.43 | $605K | −4.8% of holding | +1.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 65,031 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-20 | Khan Nick | director | Sale | 1,700 @ $185.29 | $315K | −2.7% of holding | +1.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 61,931 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-20 | Khan Nick | director | Sale | 1,400 @ $184.45 | $258K | −2.2% of holding | +1.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 63,631 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-13 | Khan Nick | director | Sale | 3,356 @ $181.13 | $608K | −4.1% of holding | +4.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 78,246 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-13 | Khan Nick | director | Sale | 1,933 @ $182.01 | $352K | −2.5% of holding | +4.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 76,313 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-13 | Khan Nick | director | Sale | 1,670 @ $184.28 | $308K | −2.2% of holding | +4.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 73,043 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-13 | Khan Nick | director | Sale | 1,600 @ $183.01 | $293K | −2.1% of holding | +4.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 74,713 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-13 | Khan Nick | director | Sale | 830 @ $185.29 | $154K | −1.1% of holding | +4.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 72,213 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-13 | Khan Nick | director | Sale | 200 @ $186.14 | $37K | −0.3% of holding | +4.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 72,013 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-12 | Khan Nick | director | Sale | 2,200 @ $209.02 | $460K | −2.5% of holding | −10.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 84,811 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-12 | Khan Nick | director | Sale | 1,400 @ $211.25 | $296K | −1.7% of holding | −10.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 82,311 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-12 | Khan Nick | director | Sale | 1,100 @ $210.12 | $231K | −1.3% of holding | −10.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 83,711 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-12 | Khan Nick | director | Sale | 800 @ $204.76 | $164K | −0.9% of holding | −10.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 88,011 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-12 | Khan Nick | director | Sale | 789 @ $203.48 | $161K | −0.9% of holding | −10.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 88,811 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-12 | Khan Nick | director | Sale | 600 @ $208.15 | $125K | −0.7% of holding | −10.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 87,011 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-12 | Khan Nick | director | Sale | 600 @ $200.31 | $120K | −0.7% of holding | −10.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 90,000 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-12 | Khan Nick | director | Sale | 500 @ $199.37 | $100K | −0.5% of holding | −10.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 90,600 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-12 | Khan Nick | director | Sale | 400 @ $202.43 | $81K | −0.4% of holding | −10.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 89,600 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-12 | Khan Nick | director | Sale | 300 @ $211.81 | $64K | −0.4% of holding | −10.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 82,011 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-12 | Khan Nick | director | Sale | 300 @ $206.68 | $62K | −0.3% of holding | −10.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 87,611 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-12 | Khan Nick | director | Sale | 200 @ $216.06 | $43K | −0.2% of holding | −10.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 81,511 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-12 | Khan Nick | director | Sale | 200 @ $213.34 | $43K | −0.2% of holding | −10.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 81,811 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-12 | Khan Nick | director | Sale | 100 @ $214.93 | $21K | −0.1% of holding | −10.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 81,711 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-12 | Khan Nick | director | Sale | 100 @ $205.33 | $21K | −0.1% of holding | −10.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 87,911 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-14 | KRAFT JONATHAN | director | Purchase | 4,500 @ $189.86 | $854K | +19.1% of holding | +4.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 28,000 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-14 | KRAFT JONATHAN | director | Purchase | 700 @ $190.61 | $133K | +2.5% of holding | +4.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 28,700 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-13 | Emanuel Ariel | director | Purchase | 6,937 @ $185.36 | $1.3M | +4.7% of holding | +10.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 154,655 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-05-13 | SHAPIRO MARK S | director | Purchase | 6,000 @ $185.40 | $1.1M | +4.9% of holding | +10.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 129,207 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-05-13 | SHAPIRO MARK S | director | Purchase | 4,807 @ $184.62 | $887K | +4.1% of holding | +10.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 123,207 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-05-13 | Emanuel Ariel | director | Purchase | 3,868 @ $184.60 | $714K | +2.7% of holding | +10.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 147,718 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-05-13 | Schleimer Andrew M | officer | Purchase | 1,696 @ $184.99 | $314K | +6.2% of holding | +10.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 29,240 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-05-13 | Schleimer Andrew M | officer | Purchase | 1,000 @ $186.21 | $186K | +3.4% of holding | +10.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 30,240 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-05-04 | Khan Nick | director | Sale | 5,710 @ $186.23 | $1.1M | −5.9% of holding | +1.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 91,494 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-04 | Khan Nick | director | Sale | 3,414 @ $185.49 | $633K | −3.4% of holding | +1.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 97,204 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-04 | Khan Nick | director | Sale | 394 @ $186.93 | $74K | −0.4% of holding | +1.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 91,100 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
137 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-14 | Emanuel Ariel | director | Withheld for tax | 49,481 | 221,894 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-12 | Emanuel Ariel | director | Option exercise | 97,041 | 97,041 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-12 | Emanuel Ariel | director | Option exercise | 97,041 | 271,375 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | Khan Nick | director | Option exercise | 14,794 | 54,134 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | SHAPIRO MARK S | director | Option exercise | 36,984 | 36,985 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | SHAPIRO MARK S | director | Option exercise | 36,984 | 166,191 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | Emanuel Ariel | director | Option exercise | 44,381 | 44,382 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | Schleimer Andrew M | officer | Option exercise | 17,753 | 47,993 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | Khan Nick | director | Option exercise | 14,794 | 14,794 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | Emanuel Ariel | director | Option exercise | 44,381 | 199,036 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | Schleimer Andrew M | officer | Option exercise | 17,753 | 17,753 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-30 | Khan Nick | director | Award / grant | 90 | 81,602 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | KRAFT JONATHAN | director | Option exercise | 1,237 | 15,969 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | KEYWELL BRADLEY A | director | Award / grant | 1,123 | 1,123 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | KEYWELL BRADLEY A | director | Option exercise | 1,237 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | KEYWELL BRADLEY A | director | Option exercise | 1,237 | 4,125 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | KRAFT JONATHAN | director | Award / grant | 1,123 | 1,123 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | WHEELER CARRIE | director | Award / grant | 1,123 | 1,123 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | BYNOE PETER C B | director | Award / grant | 1,123 | 1,123 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | BYNOE PETER C B | director | Option exercise | 1,237 | 6,424 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | BYNOE PETER C B | director | Option exercise | 1,237 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | Tellem Nancy | director | Award / grant | 1,123 | 1,123 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | Tellem Nancy | director | Option exercise | 1,237 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | WHEELER CARRIE | director | Option exercise | 1,237 | 7,836 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | Tellem Nancy | director | Option exercise | 1,237 | 4,704 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | WHEELER CARRIE | director | Option exercise | 1,237 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | Medina Sonya E | director | Award / grant | 1,123 | 1,123 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | Medina Sonya E | director | Option exercise | 1,237 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | Medina Sonya E | director | Option exercise | 1,237 | 4,937 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | Koonin Steven R | director | Award / grant | 1,549 | 1,549 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | Koonin Steven R | director | Option exercise | 1,753 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | Koonin Steven R | director | Option exercise | 1,753 | 11,153 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | KRAFT JONATHAN | director | Option exercise | 1,237 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-06 | Khan Nick | director | Award / grant | 58,319 | 58,319 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | Khan Nick | director | Award / grant | 89 | 110,136 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-22 | Emanuel Ariel | director | Withheld for tax | 39,768 | 143,850 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-20 | KRAUSS SETH D | officer | Option exercise | 4,709 | 6,980 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-20 | KRAUSS SETH D | officer | Option exercise | 9,307 | 16,287 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-20 | Schleimer Andrew M | officer | Option exercise | 5,833 | 5,834 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-20 | Schleimer Andrew M | officer | Option exercise | 17,540 | 34,903 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.
As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date
Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793
A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).
| Member | Chamber | Type | Filed | Traded | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gilbert Cisneros | House | purchase | 2025-12-15 | 2025-11-26 | $1–15K |
| John James | House | sale | 2024-09-06 | 2024-09-04 | $1–15K |
| John James | House | purchase | 2024-09-02 | 2023-11-10 | $1–15K |
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.