Issued 2026-09-16 at $265.78 · now $265.78 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, THC has typically landed between $221.37 and $324.12 — a range of −16.7% to +21.9% from the issuance price $265.78.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
4,673 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($265.78) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where THC has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $265.78 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $265.78 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $272.93 (+2.7%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $249.13–$296.73
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $221.37–$324.12
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,673 windows spanning 2008-01-02 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2008-10-31 | −72.6% | −75.1% | +0.0% |
| 2008-10-30 | −71.8% | −72.8% | +9.2% |
| 2008-10-22 | −71.2% | −71.2% | +15.6% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2009-04-03 | +127.0% | −5.4% | +127.0% |
| 2009-04-08 | +126.7% | +0.0% | +140.0% |
| 2009-04-09 | +124.8% | +0.0% | +131.2% |
4,673 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
61%
+5.1%
n=18
Feb
74%
+5.9%
n=19
Mar
68%
+1.9%
n=19
Apr
53%
+7.7%
n=19
May
53%
+6.7%
n=19
Jun
42%
−2.0%
n=19
Jul
63%
+7.4%
n=19
Aug
53%
+1.4%
n=19
Sep
37%
−2.4%
n=19
Oct
33%
−5.0%
n=18
Nov
50%
−1.2%
n=18
Dec
61%
+6.5%
n=18
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-14 | KERREY J ROBERT | director | Sale | 5,483 @ $263.04 | $1.4M | −32.6% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 11,321 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-14 | KERREY J ROBERT | director | Sale | 4,025 @ $264.10 | $1.1M | −35.6% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 7,296 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-14 | KERREY J ROBERT | director | Sale | 2,502 @ $264.62 | $662K | −34.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 4,794 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-10 | MARK RICHARD J | director | Sale | 10,000 @ $263.42 | $2.6M | −28.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 25,121 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-02 | West Nadja | director | Sale | 1,152 @ $258.80 | $298K | −4.6% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 23,653 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-31 | Foo Lisa Y | officer | Sale | 24,000 @ $266.32 | $6.4M | −74.9% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 8,053 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-25 | Sutaria Saumya | director | Sale | 24,881 @ $274.10 | $6.8M | −5.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 441,463 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-25 | Sutaria Saumya | director | Sale | 17,220 @ $273.34 | $4.7M | −3.6% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 466,344 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-25 | Sutaria Saumya | director | Sale | 7,899 @ $275.26 | $2.2M | −1.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 433,564 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-24 | Sutaria Saumya | director | Sale | 36,656 @ $278.90 | $10.2M | −7.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 483,564 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-24 | Sutaria Saumya | director | Sale | 13,344 @ $278.17 | $3.7M | −2.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 520,220 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-24 | HANEY CECIL D | director | Sale | 1,300 @ $278.03 | $361K | −9.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 12,553 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-07 | Romo Tammy | director | Sale | 2,500 @ $260.83 | $652K | −8.1% of holding | +30.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 28,284 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-06 | Romo Tammy | director | Sale | 4,922 @ $264.15 | $1.3M | −13.8% of holding | +30.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 30,784 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-05 | Blunt Roy | director | Sale | 600 @ $262.68 | $158K | −11.6% of holding | +30.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 4,589 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-29 | Foo Lisa Y | officer | Sale | 10,000 @ $258.03 | $2.6M | −23.8% of holding | +30.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 32,053 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-27 | Arbour Paola M | director | Sale | 10,878 @ $243.90 | $2.7M | −37.1% of holding | +30.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 18,413 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-27 | BIERMAN JAMES L | director | Sale | 5,000 @ $244.96 | $1.2M | −13.7% of holding | +30.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 31,604 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-27 | Lynch Christopher S. | director | Sale | 3,837 @ $243.44 | $934K | −28.6% of holding | +30.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 9,568 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-28 | KERREY J ROBERT | director | Sale | 1,969 @ $173.12 | $341K | −8.8% of holding | +9.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 20,473 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-28 | KERREY J ROBERT | director | Sale | 1,690 @ $173.97 | $294K | −8.3% of holding | +9.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 18,783 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-28 | KERREY J ROBERT | director | Sale | 905 @ $176.89 | $160K | −5.0% of holding | +9.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 17,165 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-28 | KERREY J ROBERT | director | Sale | 713 @ $175.13 | $125K | −3.8% of holding | +9.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 18,070 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-28 | KERREY J ROBERT | director | Sale | 361 @ $177.52 | $64K | −2.1% of holding | +9.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 16,804 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-27 | West Nadja | director | Sale | 3,000 @ $177.35 | $532K | −10.8% of holding | +7.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 24,805 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-11 | Arbour Paola M | director | Sale | 6,500 @ $238.43 | $1.5M | −18.2% of holding | −17.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 29,291 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-09 | Arnst Thomas W | officer | Sale | 4,714 @ $238.42 | $1.1M | −58.8% of holding | −17.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 3,298 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-09 | Arnst Thomas W | officer | Sale | 3,286 @ $239.46 | $787K | −99.6% of holding | −17.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 12 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-02 | Arnst Thomas W | officer | Sale | 24,000 @ $234.04 | $5.6M | −75.0% of holding | −14.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 8,012 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-02 | Ramsey R. Scott | officer | Sale | 4,494 @ $233.21 | $1.0M | −76.3% of holding | −14.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,398 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-02 | Ramsey R. Scott | officer | Sale | 2,125 @ $230.98 | $491K | −26.5% of holding | −14.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 5,892 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-02 | Ramsey R. Scott | officer | Sale | 1,398 @ $233.69 | $327K | −100.0% of holding | −14.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-15 | West Nadja | director | Sale | 2,178 @ $197.47 | $430K | −7.1% of holding | +0.0% | −19.0% | 28,480 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-06 | Ramsey R. Scott | officer | Sale | 8,056 @ $204.75 | $1.6M | −60.5% of holding | −0.9% | −17.0% | 5,266 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-06 | Ramsey R. Scott | officer | Sale | 5,066 @ $205.62 | $1.0M | −96.2% of holding | −0.9% | −17.0% | 200 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-06 | Ramsey R. Scott | officer | Sale | 200 @ $206.51 | $41K | −100.0% of holding | −0.9% | −17.0% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-05 | Romo Tammy | director | Sale | 645 @ $205.20 | $132K | −1.8% of holding | −0.5% | −18.2% | 34,866 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-04 | Romo Tammy | director | Sale | 11,410 @ $204.04 | $2.3M | −24.1% of holding | +0.8% | −15.5% | 35,857 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-04 | Romo Tammy | director | Sale | 346 @ $204.93 | $71K | −1.0% of holding | +0.8% | −15.5% | 35,511 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-03 | Romo Tammy | director | Sale | 8,654 @ $200.43 | $1.7M | −13.9% of holding | +4.9% | −11.4% | 53,712 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-03 | Romo Tammy | director | Sale | 5,945 @ $201.23 | $1.2M | −11.1% of holding | +4.9% | −11.4% | 47,767 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-03 | Romo Tammy | director | Sale | 500 @ $202.27 | $101K | −1.0% of holding | +4.9% | −11.4% | 47,267 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-29 | FISHER RICHARD W | director | Sale | 2,500 @ $208.43 | $521K | −22.1% of holding | +4.3% | −17.8% | 8,792 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-10 | Sutaria Saumya | director | Sale | 59,456 @ $190.48 | $11.3M | −13.3% of holding | −1.6% | +14.5% | 387,989 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-10 | Sutaria Saumya | director | Sale | 19,306 @ $191.70 | $3.7M | −5.0% of holding | −1.6% | +14.5% | 368,683 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-28 | Lynch Christopher S. | director | Sale | 8 @ $183.44 | $1K | −0.1% of holding | +6.5% | +21.0% | 12,350 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-20 | Foo Lisa Y | officer | Sale | 8,000 @ $179.53 | $1.4M | −27.7% of holding | +0.2% | +17.7% | 20,878 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-19 | Lynch Christopher S. | director | Sale | 3,952 @ $176.39 | $697K | −24.2% of holding | +3.4% | +20.5% | 12,358 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-05 | Arbour Paola M | director | Sale | 7,738 @ $173.00 | $1.3M | −27.8% of holding | −4.6% | +7.4% | 20,110 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-06-05 | FISHER RICHARD W | director | Sale | 836 @ $173.16 | $145K | −6.9% of holding | −4.6% | +7.4% | 11,292 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-05-29 | BIERMAN JAMES L | director | Sale | 4,613 @ $170.00 | $784K | −11.6% of holding | +0.8% | +14.9% | 35,271 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-05-27 | FISHER RICHARD W | director | Sale | 3,077 @ $165.72 | $510K | −20.2% of holding | +0.7% | +16.2% | 12,128 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-05-27 | BIERMAN JAMES L | director | Sale | 1,551 @ $165.72 | $257K | −3.7% of holding | +0.7% | +16.2% | 39,884 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-05-27 | KERREY J ROBERT | director | Sale | 1,222 @ $164.96 | $202K | −5.2% of holding | +0.7% | +16.2% | 22,377 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-05-23 | BIERMAN JAMES L | director | Sale | 8,836 @ $159.35 | $1.4M | −16.0% of holding | −1.4% | +3.3% | 46,435 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-23 | BIERMAN JAMES L | director | Sale | 5,000 @ $160.00 | $800K | −10.8% of holding | −1.4% | +3.3% | 41,435 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-21 | Arnst Thomas W | officer | Sale | 9,786 @ $166.00 | $1.6M | −100.0% of holding | +0.6% | +5.0% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-15 | Arbour Paola M | director | Sale | 6,461 @ $160.20 | $1.0M | −18.8% of holding | −1.9% | +5.4% | 27,848 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-05-09 | KERREY J ROBERT | director | Sale | 4,590 @ $148.45 | $681K | −16.8% of holding | −1.7% | +18.3% | 22,788 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-09 | KERREY J ROBERT | director | Sale | 411 @ $149.07 | $61K | −1.8% of holding | −1.7% | +18.3% | 22,377 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
233 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-28 | HANEY CECIL D | director | Gift | 150 | 12,403 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-27 | West Nadja | director | Award / grant | 1,188 | 1,188 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-27 | Agarwala Vineeta | director | Award / grant | 1,188 | 1,188 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-27 | BIERMAN JAMES L | director | Award / grant | 1,188 | 1,188 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-27 | Blunt Roy | director | Award / grant | 1,188 | 1,188 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-27 | FISHER RICHARD W | director | Award / grant | 1,188 | 1,188 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-27 | Fitzgerald Meghan | director | Award / grant | 1,188 | 1,188 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-27 | HANEY CECIL D | director | Award / grant | 1,188 | 1,188 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-27 | KERREY J ROBERT | director | Award / grant | 1,464 | 1,464 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-27 | Lynch Christopher S. | director | Award / grant | 1,188 | 1,188 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-27 | MARK RICHARD J | director | Award / grant | 1,188 | 1,188 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-27 | Romo Tammy | director | Award / grant | 1,188 | 1,188 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-22 | KERREY J ROBERT | director | Disposition | 607 | 22,442 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-22 | FISHER RICHARD W | director | Disposition | 493 | 9,632 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-22 | West Nadja | director | Disposition | 493 | 27,805 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-22 | Blunt Roy | director | Disposition | 493 | 5,189 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-22 | Fitzgerald Meghan | director | Disposition | 493 | 17,087 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-22 | Romo Tammy | director | Disposition | 493 | 35,706 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-22 | MARK RICHARD J | director | Disposition | 493 | 35,121 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-22 | HANEY CECIL D | director | Disposition | 493 | 13,853 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-22 | Fitzgerald Meghan | director | Option exercise | 1,333 | 17,580 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-22 | Agarwala Vineeta | director | Option exercise | 1,333 | 4,446 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-22 | Agarwala Vineeta | director | Option exercise | 1,333 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-22 | BIERMAN JAMES L | director | Option exercise | 1,333 | 36,604 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-22 | BIERMAN JAMES L | director | Option exercise | 1,333 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-22 | Blunt Roy | director | Option exercise | 1,333 | 5,682 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-22 | Blunt Roy | director | Option exercise | 1,333 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-22 | FISHER RICHARD W | director | Option exercise | 1,333 | 10,125 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-22 | FISHER RICHARD W | director | Option exercise | 1,333 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-22 | Fitzgerald Meghan | director | Option exercise | 1,333 | 17,580 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-22 | Fitzgerald Meghan | director | Option exercise | 1,333 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-22 | HANEY CECIL D | director | Option exercise | 1,333 | 14,346 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-22 | HANEY CECIL D | director | Option exercise | 1,333 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-22 | KERREY J ROBERT | director | Option exercise | 1,643 | 23,049 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-22 | KERREY J ROBERT | director | Option exercise | 1,643 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-22 | Lynch Christopher S. | director | Option exercise | 1,333 | 13,405 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-22 | Lynch Christopher S. | director | Option exercise | 1,333 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-22 | MARK RICHARD J | director | Option exercise | 1,333 | 35,614 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-22 | MARK RICHARD J | director | Option exercise | 1,333 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-22 | Romo Tammy | director | Option exercise | 1,333 | 36,199 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.
As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date
Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793
A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).
| Member | Chamber | Type | Filed | Traded | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Jackson | House | sale | 2026-05-27 | 2026-04-20 | $15–50K |
| Jonathan Jackson | House | sale | 2026-05-27 | 2026-04-15 | $1–15K |
| Jonathan Jackson | House | sale | 2026-03-12 | 2026-02-11 | $1–15K |
| Jonathan Jackson | House | purchase | 2026-01-08 | 2025-12-10 | $15–50K |
| Jonathan Jackson | House | purchase | 2025-10-15 | 2025-09-03 | $1–15K |
| Lisa Mcclain | House | sale | 2025-09-12 | 2025-08-04 | $1–15K |
| Lisa Mcclain | House | purchase | 2025-08-13 | 2025-06-11 | $1–15K |
| John James | House | sale | 2024-09-06 | 2024-09-04 | $1–15K |
| John James | House | purchase | 2024-09-02 | 2023-11-10 | $1–15K |
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.