TCBITexas Capital Bancshares, Inc.Financial Services · Banks - Regionalas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $95.33 · now $95.33 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, TCBI has typically landed between $83.53 and $109.63 — a range of −12.4% to +15.0% from the issuance price $95.33.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

5,003 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($95.33) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where TCBI has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $95.33 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$83.53worst · -12.4%$109.63best · +15.0%
  • now $95.33 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $96.09 (+0.8%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $90.54–$101.65
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $83.53–$109.63
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 5,003 windows spanning 2006-09-26 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2020-02-21−65.7%−65.7%+0.0%
2020-02-20−61.5%−61.5%+0.0%
2020-02-18−60.4%−60.4%+3.1%
3 best
2009-03-06+74.2%−2.7%+80.5%
2009-03-05+74.0%−6.3%+74.0%
2009-03-09+69.1%+0.0%+85.6%

5,003 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
55%
−0.2%
n=20
Feb
65%
+0.8%
n=20
Mar
50%
−2.4%
n=20
Apr
60%
+4.4%
n=20
May
50%
+0.8%
n=20
Jun
65%
+1.5%
n=20
Jul
70%
+3.2%
n=20
Aug
40%
−0.8%
n=20
Sep
50%
+2.4%
n=20
Oct
65%
+3.1%
n=20
Nov
50%
+2.8%
n=20
Dec
50%
−0.5%
n=20

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$108$772026-07-24: 1 insider sale, $205K — Detrich Ellen2026-06-15: 1 insider purchase, $4K — Scurlock John Matthew2026-06-09: 1 insider sale, $353K — Alvarado Anna M2026-06-08: 1 insider sale, $5.0M — Holmes Rob C2026-06-05: 1 insider sale, $5.0M — Holmes Rob C2026-03-11: 1 insider purchase, $92K — Arbour Paola M2026-03-06: 1 insider purchase, $125K — STALLINGS ROBERT W2026-03-05: 1 insider purchase, $454K — STALLINGS ROBERT W2026-03-04: 1 insider purchase, $338K — STALLINGS ROBERT W2026-03-03: 1 insider purchase, $663K — STALLINGS ROBERT W2026-03-02: 1 insider purchase, $444K — STALLINGS ROBERT W2026-02-27: 2 insider purchases, $427K — STALLINGS ROBERT W …2026-02-24: 1 insider purchase, $445K — STALLINGS ROBERT W2026-02-23: 1 insider purchase, $443K — STALLINGS ROBERT W2026-02-18: 1 insider purchase, $44K — STALLINGS ROBERT W2026-02-17: 1 insider purchase, $177K — STALLINGS ROBERT W2026-02-05: 1 insider purchase, $179K — STALLINGS ROBERT W2026-02-04: 1 insider purchase, $181K — STALLINGS ROBERT W2026-02-03: 1 insider purchase, $76K — STALLINGS ROBERT W2026-02-02: 1 insider purchase, $11K — STALLINGS ROBERT W2026-01-30: 1 insider purchase, $94K — STALLINGS ROBERT W2026-01-29: 1 insider purchase, $52K — STALLINGS ROBERT W2026-01-26: 1 insider purchase, $49K — Whitley Laura L2026-01-23: 2 insider purchases, $91K — Whitley Laura L, STALLINGS ROBERT W2025-10-28: 1 insider purchase, $104K — STALLINGS ROBERT W2025-10-27: 1 insider purchase, $103K — STALLINGS ROBERT W2025-10-24: 1 insider purchase, $206K — STALLINGS ROBERT W2025-10: 3 open-market purchases, $414K2026-01: 5 open-market purchases, $286K2026-02: 10 open-market purchases, $2.0M2026-03: 6 open-market purchases, $2.1M2026-06: 1 open-market purchase, $4K2026-06: 3 open-market sales, $10.4M2026-07: 1 open-market sale, $205K↑ buys↓ salesofficer Detrich Ellen — Sale on 2026-07-24, filed 3 days after the tradeofficer Scurlock John Matthew — Purchase on 2026-06-15, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Alvarado Anna M — Sale on 2026-06-09, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Holmes Rob C — Sale on 2026-06-08, filed same daydirector Holmes Rob C — Sale on 2026-06-05, filed 3 days after the tradedirector Arbour Paola M — Purchase on 2026-03-11, filed 1 day after the tradedirector STALLINGS ROBERT W — Purchase on 2026-03-06, filed 3 days after the tradedirector STALLINGS ROBERT W — Purchase on 2026-03-05, filed 4 days after the tradedirector STALLINGS ROBERT W — Purchase on 2026-03-04, filed 1 day after the tradedirector STALLINGS ROBERT W — Purchase on 2026-03-03, filed 2 days after the tradedirector STALLINGS ROBERT W — Purchase on 2026-03-02, filed 1 day after the tradedirector STALLINGS ROBERT W — Purchase on 2026-02-27, filed 4 days after the tradedirector STALLINGS ROBERT W — Purchase on 2026-02-27, filed 4 days after the tradedirector STALLINGS ROBERT W — Purchase on 2026-02-24, filed 1 day after the tradedirector STALLINGS ROBERT W — Purchase on 2026-02-23, filed 2 days after the tradedirector STALLINGS ROBERT W — Purchase on 2026-02-18, filed 1 day after the tradedirector STALLINGS ROBERT W — Purchase on 2026-02-17, filed 2 days after the tradedirector STALLINGS ROBERT W — Purchase on 2026-02-05, filed 1 day after the tradedirector STALLINGS ROBERT W — Purchase on 2026-02-04, filed 2 days after the tradedirector STALLINGS ROBERT W — Purchase on 2026-02-03, filed 1 day after the tradedirector STALLINGS ROBERT W — Purchase on 2026-02-02, filed 2 days after the tradedirector STALLINGS ROBERT W — Purchase on 2026-01-30, filed 3 days after the tradedirector STALLINGS ROBERT W — Purchase on 2026-01-29, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Whitley Laura L — Purchase on 2026-01-26, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Whitley Laura L — Purchase on 2026-01-23, filed 4 days after the tradedirector STALLINGS ROBERT W — Purchase on 2026-01-23, filed 4 days after the tradedirector STALLINGS ROBERT W — Purchase on 2025-10-28, filed 2 days after the tradedirector STALLINGS ROBERT W — Purchase on 2025-10-27, filed 1 day after the tradedirector STALLINGS ROBERT W — Purchase on 2025-10-24, filed 4 days after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-07-24Detrich EllenofficerSale2,045 @ $100.03$205K−21.4% of holding−4.6%not yet — horizon still open7,529Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-06-15Scurlock John MatthewofficerPurchase44 @ $101.29$4K+0.2% of holding+7.2%not yet — horizon still open22,279Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-06-09Alvarado Anna MofficerSale3,500 @ $100.95$353K−12.8% of holding−1.3%not yet — horizon still open23,810Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-06-08Holmes Rob CdirectorSale49,500 @ $101.22$5.0M−22.8% of holding+0.1%not yet — horizon still open167,635Form 4 · filed same day
2026-06-05Holmes Rob CdirectorSale49,100 @ $101.88$5.0M−18.4% of holding−1.5%not yet — horizon still open217,135Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-03-11Arbour Paola MdirectorPurchase1,000 @ $91.50$92K+17.6% of holding+10.1%−3.7%6,671Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-03-06STALLINGS ROBERT WdirectorPurchase5,500 @ $22.80$125K+3.2% of holding+7.9%−7.6%175,087Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-03-05STALLINGS ROBERT WdirectorPurchase20,000 @ $22.69$454K+13.4% of holding+5.0%−11.1%169,587Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-03-04STALLINGS ROBERT WdirectorPurchase15,000 @ $22.51$338K+11.1% of holding+3.9%−11.4%149,587Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-03-03STALLINGS ROBERT WdirectorPurchase30,000 @ $22.11$663K+28.7% of holding+3.7%−12.2%134,587Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-03-02STALLINGS ROBERT WdirectorPurchase20,000 @ $22.22$444K+23.6% of holding+3.4%−11.3%104,587Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-27STALLINGS ROBERT WdirectorPurchase3,330 @ $94.86$316K+1.1% of holding+4.9%−9.0%293,291Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-02-27STALLINGS ROBERT WdirectorPurchase5,000 @ $22.29$111K+1.4% of holding+4.9%−9.0%360,913Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-02-24STALLINGS ROBERT WdirectorPurchase20,000 @ $22.26$445K+6.0% of holding+2.5%−9.9%355,913Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-23STALLINGS ROBERT WdirectorPurchase20,000 @ $22.14$443K+6.3% of holding+1.0%−11.8%335,913Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-02-18STALLINGS ROBERT WdirectorPurchase2,000 @ $22.20$44K+0.6% of holding−8.6%−18.9%315,913Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-17STALLINGS ROBERT WdirectorPurchase8,000 @ $22.11$177K+2.6% of holding−9.6%−17.1%313,913Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-02-05STALLINGS ROBERT WdirectorPurchase8,385 @ $21.36$179K+2.8% of holding−11.0%−18.6%305,913Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-04STALLINGS ROBERT WdirectorPurchase8,500 @ $21.35$181K+2.9% of holding−10.5%−17.7%297,528Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-02-03STALLINGS ROBERT WdirectorPurchase3,600 @ $21.10$76K+1.3% of holding−9.0%−17.7%289,028Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-02STALLINGS ROBERT WdirectorPurchase515 @ $20.97$11K+0.2% of holding−4.8%−12.2%285,428Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-01-30STALLINGS ROBERT WdirectorPurchase4,500 @ $20.91$94K+1.6% of holding−3.9%−9.8%284,913Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-01-29STALLINGS ROBERT WdirectorPurchase2,500 @ $20.94$52K+0.9% of holding−3.5%−10.2%280,413Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-01-26Whitley Laura LdirectorPurchase500 @ $97.51$49K+6.7% of holding+1.8%−6.2%7,961Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-01-23Whitley Laura LdirectorPurchase500 @ $97.56$49K+7.2% of holding−0.0%−6.2%7,461Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-01-23STALLINGS ROBERT WdirectorPurchase2,000 @ $20.91$42K+0.7% of holding−0.0%−6.2%277,913Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-10-28STALLINGS ROBERT WdirectorPurchase5,000 @ $20.83$104K+1.8% of holding+8.6%+14.9%275,913Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-10-27STALLINGS ROBERT WdirectorPurchase5,000 @ $20.68$103K+1.9% of holding+7.1%+10.3%270,913Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-10-24STALLINGS ROBERT WdirectorPurchase10,000 @ $20.61$206K+3.9% of holding+4.9%+12.2%265,913Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-06-11STALLINGS ROBERT WdirectorPurchase10,500 @ $20.28$213K+21.2% of holding+10.4%+11.3%60,000Form 4 · filed 21 days after the trade
2025-06-02STALLINGS ROBERT WdirectorPurchase7,000 @ $19.78$138K+2.8% of holding+12.9%+12.5%255,913Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-05-22STALLINGS ROBERT WdirectorPurchase1,000 @ $19.93$20K+0.4% of holding+3.7%+5.2%248,913Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-05-21STALLINGS ROBERT WdirectorPurchase8,000 @ $19.79$158K+3.3% of holding+3.5%+2.8%247,913Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-05-19STALLINGS ROBERT WdirectorPurchase1,000 @ $19.95$20K+0.4% of holding−0.3%−3.3%239,913Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-05-16STALLINGS ROBERT WdirectorPurchase3,500 @ $19.91$70K+1.5% of holding−1.8%−0.6%238,913Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-05-12STALLINGS ROBERT WdirectorPurchase4,200 @ $20.05$84K+1.8% of holding−1.5%−2.3%235,413Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-05-07STALLINGS ROBERT WdirectorPurchase300 @ $20.00$6K+0.1% of holding+1.8%+0.2%231,213Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-05-01STALLINGS ROBERT WdirectorPurchase1,000 @ $19.85$20K+0.4% of holding−2.2%−3.0%230,913Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-04-29STALLINGS ROBERT WdirectorPurchase1,000 @ $19.84$20K+0.4% of holding−0.9%−2.2%229,913Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-04-25STALLINGS ROBERT WdirectorPurchase5,000 @ $67.76$339K+5.9% of holding+0.4%+2.2%90,039Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-04-23STALLINGS ROBERT WdirectorPurchase500 @ $68.20$34K+0.2% of holding−1.7%−3.3%289,961Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-04-23STALLINGS ROBERT WdirectorPurchase1,000 @ $19.80$20K+0.4% of holding−1.7%−3.3%228,913Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-04-21STALLINGS ROBERT WdirectorPurchase4,500 @ $64.27$289K+1.6% of holding+2.0%−4.3%288,131Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-04-21STALLINGS ROBERT WdirectorPurchase9,500 @ $19.17$182K+4.3% of holding+2.0%−4.3%227,913Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-03-13STALLINGS ROBERT WdirectorPurchase1,000 @ $20.40$20K+0.5% of holding−10.3%+1.8%218,413Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-03-12STALLINGS ROBERT WdirectorPurchase2,000 @ $19.90$40K+0.9% of holding−9.3%+2.7%217,413Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-03-04STALLINGS ROBERT WdirectorPurchase7,000 @ $20.43$143K+16.5% of holding+1.8%+3.4%49,500Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-02-21STALLINGS ROBERT WdirectorPurchase2,500 @ $21.26$53K+6.3% of holding+1.6%+1.7%42,500Form 4 · filed 6 days after the trade
2025-02-06STALLINGS ROBERT WdirectorPurchase7,000 @ $21.32$149K+3.4% of holding−6.5%−9.7%215,413Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-02-05STALLINGS ROBERT WdirectorPurchase6,000 @ $21.31$128K+3.0% of holding−5.6%−8.7%208,413Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-02-04STALLINGS ROBERT WdirectorPurchase7,000 @ $21.10$148K+3.6% of holding−3.1%−5.1%202,413Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-02-03STALLINGS ROBERT WdirectorPurchase5,000 @ $21.17$106K+2.6% of holding−0.2%−0.3%195,413Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-01-31STALLINGS ROBERT WdirectorPurchase6,788 @ $21.30$145K+3.7% of holding−1.2%−2.5%190,413Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-01-29STALLINGS ROBERT WdirectorPurchase726 @ $20.99$15K+0.4% of holding+2.1%+1.3%183,625Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-01-27STALLINGS ROBERT WdirectorPurchase2,006 @ $20.99$42K+1.1% of holding+0.1%+2.4%182,899Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-01-24STALLINGS ROBERT WdirectorPurchase5,000 @ $20.92$105K+2.8% of holding+4.1%+6.3%180,893Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-01-24STALLINGS ROBERT WdirectorPurchase670 @ $77.45$52K+0.8% of holding+4.1%+6.3%85,039Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

216 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-08-19Alvarado Anna MofficerGift5123,759Form 4
2026-07-01Oman David WofficerWithheld for tax1,3573,779Form 4
2026-07-01Oman David WofficerOption exercise2,7485,136Form 4
2026-07-01Oman David WofficerOption exercise2,7482,748Form 4
2026-04-28Midkiff Mark WdirectorAward / grant1,0921,092Form 4
2026-04-28Whitley Laura LdirectorAward / grant1,0921,092Form 4
2026-04-28Clark Ranjana BdirectorAward / grant1,0921,092Form 4
2026-04-28ROSENBERG STEVEdirectorAward / grant1,0921,092Form 4
2026-04-28Tremblay Dale WdirectorAward / grant1,0921,092Form 4
2026-04-28Baliff JonathandirectorAward / grant1,0921,092Form 4
2026-04-28Huntley David S.directorAward / grant1,0921,092Form 4
2026-04-28Long Thomas EdirectorAward / grant1,0921,092Form 4
2026-04-28Arbour Paola MdirectorAward / grant1,0921,092Form 4
2026-04-22Clark Ranjana BdirectorOption exercise1,6700Form 4
2026-04-22Long Thomas EdirectorOption exercise1,67012,173Form 4
2026-04-22Long Thomas EdirectorOption exercise1,6700Form 4
2026-04-22Huntley David S.directorOption exercise1,67012,468Form 4
2026-04-22Huntley David S.directorOption exercise1,6700Form 4
2026-04-22Ragusa Elysia HoltdirectorOption exercise1,67018,795Form 4
2026-04-22Ragusa Elysia HoltdirectorOption exercise1,6700Form 4
2026-04-22Baliff JonathandirectorOption exercise1,67011,265Form 4
2026-04-22Baliff JonathandirectorOption exercise1,6700Form 4
2026-04-22Midkiff Mark WdirectorOption exercise1,6702,804Form 4
2026-04-22Midkiff Mark WdirectorOption exercise1,6700Form 4
2026-04-22Arbour Paola MdirectorOption exercise1,6708,341Form 4
2026-04-22Arbour Paola MdirectorOption exercise1,6700Form 4
2026-04-22Whitley Laura LdirectorOption exercise1,6709,631Form 4
2026-04-22Whitley Laura LdirectorOption exercise1,6700Form 4
2026-04-22Tremblay Dale WdirectorOption exercise1,67017,995Form 4
2026-04-22Tremblay Dale WdirectorOption exercise1,6700Form 4
2026-04-22Clark Ranjana BdirectorOption exercise1,6701,670Form 4
2026-04-22ROSENBERG STEVEdirectorOption exercise1,6704,377Form 4
2026-04-22ROSENBERG STEVEdirectorOption exercise1,6700Form 4
2026-04-22STALLINGS ROBERT WdirectorOption exercise1,670294,961Form 4
2026-04-22STALLINGS ROBERT WdirectorOption exercise1,6700Form 4
2026-04-21Hyle Charles SdirectorOption exercise1,67016,020Form 4
2026-04-21Hyle Charles SdirectorOption exercise1,6700Form 4
2026-02-20Holmes Rob CdirectorWithheld for tax1,446266,235Form 4
2026-02-20Holmes Rob CdirectorOption exercise1,446267,681Form 4
2026-02-20Holmes Rob CdirectorOption exercise1,44660,045Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.