Issued 2026-09-16 at $5.88 · now $5.88 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, STTK has typically landed between $3.84 and $9.20 — a range of −34.8% to +56.4% from the issuance price $5.88.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
1,467 overlapping 1 month windows · 2020-10-09 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($5.88) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where STTK has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $5.88 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $5.88 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $5.64 (-4.0%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $4.7–$6.58
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $3.84–$9.2
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2024-09-06 | −67.7% | −67.7% | +10.6% |
| 2024-09-20 | −66.6% | −69.8% | +3.5% |
| 2024-09-05 | −65.4% | −65.4% | +9.6% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2023-12-05 | +387.2% | +0.0% | +387.2% |
| 2023-12-11 | +350.2% | +0.0% | +382.8% |
| 2023-12-07 | +327.5% | −11.4% | +327.5% |
1,467 overlapping windows · 2020-10-09 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~6 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-02 | Shukla Abhinav A. | officer | Sale | 410 @ $7.01 | $3K | −0.5% of holding | +1.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 86,380 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-01 | Shukla Abhinav A. | officer | Sale | 100 @ $7.07 | $707 | −0.1% of holding | +8.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 86,380 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-30 | Pandite Arundathy N. | officer | Sale | 30,000 @ $7.01 | $210K | −18.0% of holding | +4.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 136,219 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-30 | Shukla Abhinav A. | officer | Sale | 23,365 @ $7.08 | $165K | −21.3% of holding | +4.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 86,380 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-11 | Ashiya Mona | director | Purchase | 1,041,667 | — | +4.1% of holding | +48.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 26,519,541 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-11 | Ashiya Mona | director | Purchase | 208,333 | — | +4.1% of holding | +48.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 5,303,908 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-11 | ORBIMED ADVISORS LLC | director | Purchase | 1,041,667 | — | +4.1% of holding | +48.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 26,519,541 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-11 | ORBIMED ADVISORS LLC | director | Purchase | 208,333 | — | +4.1% of holding | +48.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 5,303,908 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-11 | ORBIMED ADVISORS LLC | director | Purchase | 1,041,667 | — | +4.1% of holding | +48.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 26,519,541 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-11 | ORBIMED ADVISORS LLC | director | Purchase | 208,333 | — | +4.1% of holding | +48.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 5,303,908 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-11 | ORBIMED ADVISORS LLC | director | Purchase | 1,041,667 | — | +4.1% of holding | +48.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 26,519,541 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-11 | ORBIMED ADVISORS LLC | director | Purchase | 208,333 | — | +4.1% of holding | +48.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 5,303,908 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-11 | ORBIMED ADVISORS LLC | director | Purchase | 1,041,667 | — | +4.1% of holding | +48.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 26,519,541 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-11 | ORBIMED ADVISORS LLC | director | Purchase | 208,333 | — | +4.1% of holding | +48.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 5,303,908 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-11 | Ashiya Mona | director | Purchase | 1,041,667 | — | +4.1% of holding | +48.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 26,519,541 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-11 | Ashiya Mona | director | Purchase | 208,333 | — | +4.1% of holding | +48.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 5,303,908 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-09 | SIEGALL CLAY B | director | Purchase | 62,500 @ $4.00 | $250K | +24.4% of holding | +52.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 318,608 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-12 | Pandite Arundathy N. | officer | Sale | 30,000 @ $6.61 | $198K | −15.3% of holding | −36.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 166,219 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-12 | Shukla Abhinav A. | officer | Sale | 2,032 @ $7.01 | $14K | −2.4% of holding | −36.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 81,258 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-25 | Ashiya Mona | director | Purchase | 5,255,106 @ $0.87 | $4.6M | ownership Δ n/a | +133.3% | +299.1% | 5,255,106 | Form 4 · filed 8 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-25 | ORBIMED ADVISORS LLC | director | Purchase | 5,255,106 @ $0.87 | $4.6M | ownership Δ n/a | +133.3% | +299.1% | 5,255,106 | Form 4 · filed 8 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-25 | ORBIMED ADVISORS LLC | director | Purchase | 1,051,021 @ $0.87 | $912K | ownership Δ n/a | +133.3% | +299.1% | 1,051,021 | Form 4 · filed 8 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-25 | Ashiya Mona | director | Purchase | 1,051,021 @ $0.87 | $912K | ownership Δ n/a | +133.3% | +299.1% | 1,051,021 | Form 4 · filed 8 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-25 | ORBIMED ADVISORS LLC | director | Purchase | 2,022,277 | — | ownership Δ n/a | +133.3% | +299.1% | 2,022,277 | Form 4 · filed 8 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-25 | ORBIMED ADVISORS LLC | director | Purchase | 15,366,490 | — | ownership Δ n/a | +133.3% | +299.1% | 15,366,490 | Form 4 · filed 8 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-25 | ORBIMED ADVISORS LLC | director | Purchase | 3,073,298 | — | ownership Δ n/a | +133.3% | +299.1% | 3,073,298 | Form 4 · filed 8 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-25 | ORBIMED ADVISORS LLC | director | Purchase | 2,022,277 | — | ownership Δ n/a | +133.3% | +299.1% | 2,022,277 | Form 4 · filed 8 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-25 | ORBIMED ADVISORS LLC | director | Purchase | 15,366,490 | — | ownership Δ n/a | +133.3% | +299.1% | 15,366,490 | Form 4 · filed 8 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-25 | ORBIMED ADVISORS LLC | director | Purchase | 3,073,298 | — | ownership Δ n/a | +133.3% | +299.1% | 3,073,298 | Form 4 · filed 8 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-25 | ORBIMED ADVISORS LLC | director | Purchase | 15,366,490 | — | ownership Δ n/a | +133.3% | +299.1% | 15,366,490 | Form 4 · filed 8 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-25 | ORBIMED ADVISORS LLC | director | Purchase | 3,073,298 | — | ownership Δ n/a | +133.3% | +299.1% | 3,073,298 | Form 4 · filed 8 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-25 | Ashiya Mona | director | Purchase | 10,111,384 | — | ownership Δ n/a | +133.3% | +299.1% | 10,111,384 | Form 4 · filed 8 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-25 | Ashiya Mona | director | Purchase | 2,022,277 | — | ownership Δ n/a | +133.3% | +299.1% | 2,022,277 | Form 4 · filed 8 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-25 | Ashiya Mona | director | Purchase | 15,366,490 | — | ownership Δ n/a | +133.3% | +299.1% | 15,366,490 | Form 4 · filed 8 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-25 | Ashiya Mona | director | Purchase | 3,073,298 | — | ownership Δ n/a | +133.3% | +299.1% | 3,073,298 | Form 4 · filed 8 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-25 | ORBIMED ADVISORS LLC | director | Purchase | 10,111,384 | — | ownership Δ n/a | +133.3% | +299.1% | 10,111,384 | Form 4 · filed 8 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-25 | ORBIMED ADVISORS LLC | director | Purchase | 2,022,277 | — | ownership Δ n/a | +133.3% | +299.1% | 2,022,277 | Form 4 · filed 8 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-25 | ORBIMED ADVISORS LLC | director | Purchase | 15,366,490 | — | ownership Δ n/a | +133.3% | +299.1% | 15,366,490 | Form 4 · filed 8 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-25 | ORBIMED ADVISORS LLC | director | Purchase | 10,111,384 | — | ownership Δ n/a | +133.3% | +299.1% | 10,111,384 | Form 4 · filed 8 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-25 | ORBIMED ADVISORS LLC | director | Purchase | 10,111,384 | — | ownership Δ n/a | +133.3% | +299.1% | 10,111,384 | Form 4 · filed 8 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-25 | ORBIMED ADVISORS LLC | director | Purchase | 10,111,384 | — | ownership Δ n/a | +133.3% | +299.1% | 10,111,384 | Form 4 · filed 8 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-25 | ORBIMED ADVISORS LLC | director | Purchase | 2,022,277 | — | ownership Δ n/a | +133.3% | +299.1% | 2,022,277 | Form 4 · filed 8 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-25 | ORBIMED ADVISORS LLC | director | Purchase | 3,073,298 | — | ownership Δ n/a | +133.3% | +299.1% | 3,073,298 | Form 4 · filed 8 days after the trade |
| 2024-12-04 | Redmile Group, LLC | director | Purchase | 133,371 @ $1.25 | $167K | +2.5% of holding | +3.3% | −7.1% | 5,539,724 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2024-12-04 | Redmile Group, LLC | director | Sale | 133,371 @ $1.25 | $167K | −2.4% of holding | +3.3% | −7.1% | 5,406,353 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
113 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-06 | Shukla Abhinav A. | officer | Option exercise | 12,153 | 98,533 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-06 | Shukla Abhinav A. | officer | Option exercise | 12,153 | 14,140 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-02 | Shukla Abhinav A. | officer | Option exercise | 410 | 86,790 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-02 | Shukla Abhinav A. | officer | Option exercise | 410 | 26,293 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Shukla Abhinav A. | officer | Option exercise | 100 | 86,480 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Shukla Abhinav A. | officer | Option exercise | 100 | 26,703 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-30 | Shukla Abhinav A. | officer | Option exercise | 23,365 | 109,745 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-30 | Shukla Abhinav A. | officer | Option exercise | 23,365 | 26,803 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-08 | ORBIMED ADVISORS LLC | director | Conversion | 3,073,298 | 5,095,575 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-08 | Ashiya Mona | director | Conversion | 15,366,490 | 25,477,874 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-08 | Ashiya Mona | director | Conversion | 3,073,298 | 5,095,575 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-08 | Ashiya Mona | director | Conversion | 15,366,490 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-08 | Ashiya Mona | director | Conversion | 3,073,298 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-08 | ORBIMED ADVISORS LLC | director | Conversion | 15,366,490 | 25,477,874 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-08 | ORBIMED ADVISORS LLC | director | Conversion | 15,366,490 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-08 | ORBIMED ADVISORS LLC | director | Conversion | 3,073,298 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-08 | ORBIMED ADVISORS LLC | director | Conversion | 15,366,490 | 25,477,874 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-08 | ORBIMED ADVISORS LLC | director | Conversion | 3,073,298 | 5,095,575 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-08 | ORBIMED ADVISORS LLC | director | Conversion | 15,366,490 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-08 | ORBIMED ADVISORS LLC | director | Conversion | 3,073,298 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-08 | ORBIMED ADVISORS LLC | director | Conversion | 15,366,490 | 25,477,874 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-08 | ORBIMED ADVISORS LLC | director | Conversion | 3,073,298 | 5,095,575 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-08 | ORBIMED ADVISORS LLC | director | Conversion | 15,366,490 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-08 | ORBIMED ADVISORS LLC | director | Conversion | 3,073,298 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-08 | Ashiya Mona | director | Conversion | 15,366,490 | 25,477,874 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-08 | Ashiya Mona | director | Conversion | 3,073,298 | 5,095,575 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-08 | Ashiya Mona | director | Conversion | 15,366,490 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-08 | Ashiya Mona | director | Conversion | 3,073,298 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-08 | ORBIMED ADVISORS LLC | director | Conversion | 15,366,490 | 25,477,874 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-08 | ORBIMED ADVISORS LLC | director | Conversion | 3,073,298 | 5,095,575 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-08 | ORBIMED ADVISORS LLC | director | Conversion | 15,366,490 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-08 | ORBIMED ADVISORS LLC | director | Conversion | 3,073,298 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-29 | Baker Daniel G. | director | Award / grant | 81,000 | 81,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-29 | Ashiya Mona | director | Award / grant | 81,000 | 81,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-29 | Boudreau Helen M | director | Award / grant | 81,000 | 81,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-29 | Gibson Neil W | director | Award / grant | 81,000 | 81,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-29 | Golumbeski George | director | Award / grant | 81,000 | 81,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-29 | SIEGALL CLAY B | director | Award / grant | 81,000 | 81,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-22 | SIEGALL CLAY B | director | Award / grant | 128,054 | 256,108 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-22 | SIEGALL CLAY B | director | Option exercise | 128,054 | 0 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.