Issued 2026-09-16 at $103.86 · now $103.86 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, SSB has typically landed between $92.58 and $118.07 — a range of −10.9% to +13.7% from the issuance price $103.86.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
5,003 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($103.86) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where SSB has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $103.86 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $103.86 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $104.49 (+0.6%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $98.95–$110.03
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $92.58–$118.07
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2009-02-05 | −36.4% | −36.4% | +0.0% |
| 2009-02-03 | −36.1% | −36.1% | +0.0% |
| 2020-02-11 | −32.2% | −32.2% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2009-03-05 | +39.5% | −2.0% | +44.3% |
| 2020-09-23 | +37.5% | −0.5% | +37.5% |
| 2020-09-24 | +36.9% | +0.0% | +38.2% |
5,003 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-19 | MATTHEWS WILLIAM E V | officer | Sale | 4,000 @ $108.93 | $436K | −9.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 40,568 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-05 | Brooks David R | director | Sale | 18,000 @ $110.00 | $2.0M | −5.0% of holding | −1.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 341,686 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-05 | Brooks David R | director | Sale | 3,750 @ $110.00 | $413K | −27.2% of holding | −1.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 10,050 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-05 | Brooks David R | director | Sale | 1,800 @ $110.00 | $198K | −7.3% of holding | −1.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 22,900 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-05 | Brooks David R | director | Sale | 1,100 @ $110.00 | $121K | −12.2% of holding | −1.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 7,900 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-03 | Brooks David R | director | Sale | 6,181 @ $107.92 | $667K | −77.8% of holding | −3.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,762 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-28 | Brooks David R | director | Sale | 9,000 @ $98.39 | $886K | −30.0% of holding | −9.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 21,000 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-28 | Brooks David R | director | Sale | 5,300 @ $98.39 | $521K | −29.4% of holding | −9.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 12,700 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-18 | MURRAY RICHARD IV | officer | Sale | 10,156 @ $104.76 | $1.1M | −16.1% of holding | −10.1% | −8.1% | 52,972 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-08-22 | BOCKHORST DANIEL E | officer | Sale | 5,000 @ $99.60 | $498K | −13.6% of holding | −3.2% | −6.4% | 31,785 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-08-14 | MURRAY RICHARD IV | officer | Sale | 5,302 @ $97.20 | $515K | −8.0% of holding | +0.9% | +1.8% | 60,798 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-08-01 | SMITH G STACY | director | Purchase | 2,500 @ $92.30 | $231K | +6.7% of holding | +8.5% | +0.0% | 39,546 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-07-30 | Froetscher Janet P | director | Purchase | 3,338 @ $97.31 | $325K | +67.4% of holding | +4.5% | −1.4% | 8,294 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-03-10 | Froetscher Janet P | director | Purchase | 2,717 @ $92.02 | $250K | +137.8% of holding | +0.3% | −3.6% | 4,689 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-03-06 | SMITH G STACY | director | Purchase | 3,100 @ $93.60 | $290K | +9.2% of holding | −0.3% | −0.8% | 36,779 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-03-03 | ARANA SARA | officer | Sale | 1,991 @ $100.78 | $201K | −29.4% of holding | −3.4% | −5.4% | 4,787 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-01-29 | MATTHEWS WILLIAM E V | officer | Sale | 6,531 @ $108.29 | $707K | −16.1% of holding | −3.6% | −16.3% | 34,107 | Form 4 · filed same day |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
244 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-14 | MURRAY RICHARD IV | officer | Gift | 1,000 | 55,237 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-12 | YOUNG STEPHEN DEAN | officer | Gift | 3,000 | 49,935 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-12 | Corbett John C | director | Gift | 5,000 | 125,902 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-03 | PAGE G RUFFNER JR | director | Award / grant | 360 | 82,245 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-03 | Cooper Shantella E. | director | Award / grant | 279 | 10,704 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-03 | POU WILLIAM K JR | director | Award / grant | 232 | 24,575 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | BOCKHORST DANIEL E | officer | Withheld for tax | 36 | 37,985 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | BOCKHORST DANIEL E | officer | Option exercise | 1,491 | 38,021 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-21 | Sasse Benjamin E | director | Option exercise | 628 | 1,678 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-04 | Hertz Douglas J. | director | Award / grant | 506 | 19,008 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-04 | Cooper Shantella E. | director | Award / grant | 312 | 10,425 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-04 | PAGE G RUFFNER JR | director | Award / grant | 260 | 81,885 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-04 | POU WILLIAM K JR | director | Award / grant | 260 | 24,343 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | Brooks David R | director | Award / grant | 1,050 | 1,050 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | SMITH G STACY | director | Award / grant | 1,050 | 1,050 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | PAGE G RUFFNER JR | director | Award / grant | 1,050 | 1,050 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | ROQUEMORE JAMES W | director | Award / grant | 1,050 | 1,050 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | Froetscher Janet P | director | Award / grant | 1,050 | 1,050 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | SNIVELY JOSHUA A | director | Award / grant | 1,050 | 1,050 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | DAVIS MARTIN BERNARD | director | Award / grant | 1,050 | 1,050 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | Cooper Shantella E. | director | Award / grant | 1,050 | 1,050 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | POU WILLIAM K JR | director | Award / grant | 1,050 | 1,050 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | SALYERS DAVID G | director | Award / grant | 1,050 | 1,050 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | METZ MERRIANN | director | Award / grant | 1,050 | 1,050 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | Cofield Ronald M. | director | Award / grant | 1,050 | 1,050 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | Sasse Benjamin E | director | Award / grant | 1,050 | 1,678 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-12 | BROOKS RENEE R | officer | Gift | 2,128 | 37,854 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-20 | Corbett John C | director | Withheld for tax | 16,227 | 130,902 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-20 | YOUNG STEPHEN DEAN | officer | Withheld for tax | 4,122 | 52,935 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-20 | MATTHEWS WILLIAM E V | officer | Withheld for tax | 3,680 | 44,568 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-20 | MURRAY RICHARD IV | officer | Withheld for tax | 2,680 | 56,237 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-20 | BROOKS RENEE R | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,788 | 39,982 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-20 | DeSimone Beth S | officer | Withheld for tax | 766 | 27,716 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-20 | Idell Jennifer | officer | Withheld for tax | 665 | 19,049 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-20 | BOCKHORST DANIEL E | officer | Withheld for tax | 42 | 36,530 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-20 | YOUNG STEPHEN DEAN | officer | Option exercise | 10,433 | 57,057 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-20 | BROOKS RENEE R | officer | Option exercise | 5,945 | 41,770 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-20 | MATTHEWS WILLIAM E V | officer | Option exercise | 7,806 | 48,248 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-20 | Idell Jennifer | officer | Option exercise | 2,472 | 19,714 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-20 | Corbett John C | director | Option exercise | 32,454 | 147,129 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.