Issued 2026-09-25 at $4.08 · now $4.08 (2026-09-25, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-25 close, SPRY has typically landed between $2.93 and $5.46 — a range of −28.1% to +33.8% from the issuance price $4.08.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
1,436 overlapping 1 month windows · 2020-12-04 – 2026-08-26 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Base rate up 53.7% (90% CI 51.5–55.9%, ≈1,391 obs). Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-25 issuance close ($4.08) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-26, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where SPRY has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-25 close of $4.08 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $4.08 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $4.11 (+0.8%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $3.55–$4.67
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $2.93–$5.46
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 1,436 windows spanning 2020-12-04 to 2026-09-25. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2021-08-17 | −59.6% | −59.6% | +0.0% |
| 2021-08-23 | −59.3% | −59.3% | +0.0% |
| 2021-08-19 | −58.7% | −58.7% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2025-11-20 | +68.8% | +0.0% | +68.8% |
| 2020-12-14 | +62.7% | −1.1% | +62.7% |
| 2020-12-15 | +59.7% | +0.0% | +64.6% |
1,436 overlapping windows · 2020-12-04 – 2026-09-25 · not cherry-picked
Pending catalysts
- June 2027 — Trial primary completion: Phase 2 primary completion: An Outpatient Study of the Efficacy of ARS-2 in Patients With Chronic Spontaneous Urticaria (source, as of 2026-08-14)
Public, scheduled events — dated attention, not a prediction of the outcome. See the FDA catalysts page for the historical base rate.
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~6 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
33%
−4.9%
n=6
Feb
50%
+6.0%
n=6
Mar
33%
−4.3%
n=6
Apr
33%
−6.5%
n=6
May
83%
+3.4%
n=6
Jun
50%
+5.8%
n=6
Jul
67%
+3.8%
n=6
Aug
50%
−3.9%
n=6
Sep
17%
−23.0%
n=6
Oct
40%
−2.1%
n=5
Nov
40%
+4.4%
n=5
Dec
60%
+8.0%
n=5
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-12 | Karas Eric | officer | Sale | 25,000 @ $10.00 | $250K | −67.2% of holding | −24.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 12,176 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-06-12 | Fitzpatrick Alexander A | officer | Sale | 3,355 @ $10.00 | $34K | −3.6% of holding | −24.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 90,910 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-11-13 | Dorsey Brian | officer | Sale | 21,828 @ $8.71 | $190K | −66.9% of holding | +24.6% | −23.7% | 10,789 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-12 | Chakma Justin | officer | Sale | 136,380 @ $8.86 | $1.2M | −100.0% of holding | +14.7% | −25.8% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-12 | Chakma Justin | officer | Sale | 30,000 @ $8.91 | $267K | −18.0% of holding | +14.7% | −25.8% | 136,380 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-21 | Lowenthal Richard E | director | Sale | 50,000 @ $14.49 | $724K | −4.0% of holding | −39.4% | −46.0% | 1,196,494 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-21 | Scott Kathleen D. | director | Sale | 12,500 @ $15.00 | $188K | −55.5% of holding | −39.4% | −46.0% | 10,042 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-20 | Tanimoto Sarina | officer | Sale | 37,656 @ $14.09 | $531K | −2.9% of holding | −37.2% | −47.0% | 1,247,447 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-19 | Tanimoto Sarina | officer | Sale | 12,344 @ $14.03 | $173K | −1.0% of holding | −31.5% | −39.1% | 1,285,103 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-07-01 | Karas Eric | officer | Sale | 15,000 @ $16.99 | $255K | −59.3% of holding | +7.5% | −39.5% | 10,315 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-27 | Flynn James E | director | Sale | 370,075 @ $18.46 | $6.8M | −7.0% of holding | −5.8% | −50.4% | 4,887,254 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-27 | Flynn James E | director | Sale | 370,074 @ $18.46 | $6.8M | −7.0% of holding | −5.8% | −50.4% | 4,887,254 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-18 | Karas Eric | officer | Sale | 15,000 @ $16.00 | $240K | −66.1% of holding | +6.6% | −49.7% | 7,696 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-20 | SAUNDERS BRENT L | director | Sale | 120,000 @ $14.25 | $1.7M | −100.0% of holding | +9.7% | −62.5% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-20 | Fitzpatrick Alexander A | officer | Sale | 102,969 @ $14.10 | $1.5M | −53.5% of holding | +9.7% | −62.5% | 89,613 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-20 | Scott Kathleen D. | director | Sale | 50,000 @ $14.10 | $705K | −87.1% of holding | +9.7% | −62.5% | 7,424 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-04-07 | Shawver Laura | director | Sale | 50,002 @ $12.30 | $615K | −19.2% of holding | −6.1% | −52.9% | 210,346 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-03-20 | Karas Eric | officer | Sale | 10,000 @ $14.00 | $140K | −56.5% of holding | +8.9% | −50.0% | 7,696 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-03-06 | Shawver Laura | director | Sale | 49,600 @ $11.21 | $556K | −19.1% of holding | +30.1% | −20.4% | 210,346 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-03-05 | Shawver Laura | director | Sale | 400 @ $11.00 | $4K | −0.2% of holding | +30.9% | −13.7% | 210,346 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-02-03 | Shawver Laura | director | Sale | 50,000 @ $12.31 | $616K | −19.2% of holding | −9.2% | +38.9% | 210,346 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-01-06 | Shawver Laura | director | Sale | 50,000 @ $11.10 | $555K | −19.2% of holding | +13.7% | +56.5% | 210,346 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2024-12-17 | Lowenthal Richard E | director | Sale | 50,000 @ $11.67 | $584K | −3.7% of holding | +14.5% | +40.7% | 1,297,447 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2024-12-17 | Tanimoto Sarina | officer | Sale | 50,000 @ $11.67 | $584K | −3.7% of holding | +14.5% | +40.7% | 1,297,447 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2024-12-17 | Tanimoto Sarina | officer | Sale | 50,000 @ $11.67 | $584K | −4.4% of holding | +14.5% | +40.7% | 1,098,499 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2024-12-17 | Lowenthal Richard E | director | Sale | 50,000 @ $11.67 | $584K | −4.4% of holding | +14.5% | +40.7% | 1,098,499 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2024-12-13 | Chakma Justin | officer | Sale | 27,272 @ $12.06 | $329K | −16.7% of holding | +4.1% | +34.2% | 136,380 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2024-12-12 | Chakma Justin | officer | Sale | 117,333 @ $12.27 | $1.4M | −46.2% of holding | −3.4% | +17.7% | 136,380 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2024-12-12 | Dorsey Brian | officer | Sale | 25,000 @ $12.30 | $307K | −80.6% of holding | −3.4% | +17.7% | 6,024 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2024-12-11 | Dorsey Brian | officer | Sale | 15,000 @ $12.43 | $186K | −71.3% of holding | −3.6% | +23.7% | 6,024 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2024-12-10 | Lowenthal Richard E | director | Sale | 50,000 @ $13.17 | $658K | −3.9% of holding | −9.8% | +19.2% | 1,246,494 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2024-12-10 | Tanimoto Sarina | officer | Sale | 50,000 @ $13.17 | $658K | −3.9% of holding | −9.8% | +19.2% | 1,246,494 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2024-12-10 | Lowenthal Richard E | director | Sale | 50,000 @ $13.16 | $658K | −4.2% of holding | −9.8% | +19.2% | 1,148,499 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2024-12-10 | Tanimoto Sarina | officer | Sale | 50,000 @ $13.16 | $658K | −4.2% of holding | −9.8% | +19.2% | 1,148,499 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2024-12-10 | Chakma Justin | officer | Sale | 50,000 @ $13.15 | $658K | −26.8% of holding | −9.8% | +19.2% | 136,380 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2024-12-06 | Chakma Justin | officer | Sale | 50,000 @ $14.23 | $712K | −26.8% of holding | −15.8% | +2.7% | 136,380 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2024-12-05 | Chakma Justin | officer | Sale | 49,640 @ $14.13 | $702K | −26.7% of holding | −16.4% | +4.9% | 136,380 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2024-12-04 | Chakma Justin | officer | Sale | 45,000 @ $13.95 | $628K | −24.8% of holding | −21.5% | +1.4% | 136,380 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2024-12-04 | Shawver Laura | director | Sale | 14,772 @ $13.75 | $203K | −6.6% of holding | −21.5% | +1.4% | 210,346 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2024-12-04 | Karas Eric | officer | Sale | 6,283 @ $14.00 | $88K | −52.5% of holding | −21.5% | +1.4% | 5,693 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2024-12-03 | Shawver Laura | director | Sale | 87,984 @ $13.26 | $1.2M | −29.5% of holding | −16.1% | +6.6% | 210,346 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2024-12-03 | Chakma Justin | officer | Sale | 45,000 @ $13.19 | $593K | −24.8% of holding | −16.1% | +6.6% | 136,380 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2024-12-02 | Shawver Laura | director | Sale | 96,343 @ $13.55 | $1.3M | −31.3% of holding | −16.8% | +2.0% | 211,247 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2024-12-02 | Chakma Justin | officer | Sale | 45,000 @ $13.67 | $615K | −24.8% of holding | −16.8% | +2.0% | 136,380 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2024-12-02 | Karas Eric | officer | Sale | 3,717 @ $14.11 | $52K | −39.5% of holding | −16.8% | +2.0% | 5,693 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2024-12-02 | Shawver Laura | director | Sale | 901 @ $14.34 | $13K | −0.4% of holding | −16.8% | +2.0% | 210,346 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2024-11-27 | Chakma Justin | officer | Sale | 25,000 @ $14.39 | $360K | −15.5% of holding | −25.5% | −0.2% | 136,380 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2024-11-26 | Chakma Justin | officer | Sale | 42,186 @ $14.05 | $593K | −20.7% of holding | −24.3% | +1.3% | 161,380 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2024-11-25 | Chakma Justin | officer | Sale | 32,814 @ $14.00 | $459K | −13.9% of holding | −19.6% | +6.0% | 203,566 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2024-11-19 | Lowenthal Richard E | director | Sale | 50,000 @ $13.95 | $698K | −3.6% of holding | −17.2% | +9.9% | 1,347,447 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2024-11-19 | Tanimoto Sarina | officer | Sale | 50,000 @ $13.95 | $698K | −3.6% of holding | −17.2% | +9.9% | 1,347,447 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2024-11-19 | Tanimoto Sarina | officer | Sale | 50,000 @ $13.95 | $697K | −4.0% of holding | −17.2% | +9.9% | 1,198,499 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2024-11-19 | Lowenthal Richard E | director | Sale | 50,000 @ $13.95 | $697K | −4.0% of holding | −17.2% | +9.9% | 1,198,499 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2024-11-12 | Lowenthal Richard E | director | Sale | 45,124 @ $16.76 | $756K | −3.5% of holding | −25.1% | −18.3% | 1,253,375 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2024-11-12 | Tanimoto Sarina | officer | Sale | 45,124 @ $16.76 | $756K | −3.5% of holding | −25.1% | −18.3% | 1,253,375 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2024-11-12 | Lowenthal Richard E | director | Sale | 45,045 @ $16.76 | $755K | −3.3% of holding | −25.1% | −18.3% | 1,301,449 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2024-11-12 | Tanimoto Sarina | officer | Sale | 45,045 @ $16.76 | $755K | −3.3% of holding | −25.1% | −18.3% | 1,301,449 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2024-11-12 | Flynn James E | director | Sale | 9,554 @ $17.77 | $170K | −0.2% of holding | −25.1% | −18.3% | 5,257,329 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2024-11-12 | Flynn James E | director | Sale | 9,553 @ $17.77 | $170K | −0.2% of holding | −25.1% | −18.3% | 5,257,328 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2024-11-12 | Flynn James E | director | Sale | 7,854 @ $17.16 | $135K | −0.1% of holding | −25.1% | −18.3% | 5,266,881 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
149 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-01 | Smith Margaret Ekins | officer | Award / grant | 1,001,738 | 1,001,738 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Casale Donn | officer | Award / grant | 898,456 | 898,456 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-24 | Shah Pratik | director | Award / grant | 30,000 | 30,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-24 | Thompson Peter A. | director | Award / grant | 30,000 | 30,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-24 | Shawver Laura | director | Award / grant | 30,000 | 30,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-24 | Islam Saqib | director | Award / grant | 30,000 | 30,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-24 | Kelly Michael | director | Award / grant | 30,000 | 30,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-24 | Dadoo Rajeev | director | Award / grant | 30,000 | 30,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-24 | SCHNEIDER PHILLIP M | director | Award / grant | 30,000 | 30,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-24 | RA CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, L.P. | director | Award / grant | 30,000 | 30,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-24 | SAUNDERS BRENT L | director | Award / grant | 30,000 | 30,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-12 | Karas Eric | officer | Option exercise | 25,000 | 37,176 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-12 | Karas Eric | officer | Option exercise | 25,000 | 519,588 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-02 | Karas Eric | officer | Award / grant | 240,000 | 240,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-02 | Tanimoto Sarina | officer | Award / grant | 875,000 | 875,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-02 | Lowenthal Richard E | director | Award / grant | 875,000 | 875,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-02 | Lowenthal Richard E | director | Award / grant | 240,000 | 240,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-02 | Chakma Justin | officer | Award / grant | 240,000 | 240,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-02 | Tanimoto Sarina | officer | Award / grant | 240,000 | 240,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-02 | Dorsey Brian | officer | Award / grant | 240,000 | 240,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-02 | Fitzpatrick Alexander A | officer | Award / grant | 240,000 | 240,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-02 | Scott Kathleen D. | director | Award / grant | 240,000 | 240,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-13 | Dorsey Brian | officer | Option exercise | 21,828 | 32,617 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-13 | Dorsey Brian | officer | Option exercise | 21,828 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-12 | Chakma Justin | officer | Option exercise | 30,000 | 166,380 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-12 | Shah Pratik | director | Gift | 100,000 | 4,474,554 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-12 | Chakma Justin | officer | Option exercise | 30,000 | 89,047 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-12 | Shah Pratik | director | Gift | 250,000 | 4,574,554 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-21 | Scott Kathleen D. | director | Option exercise | 12,500 | 22,542 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-21 | Scott Kathleen D. | director | Option exercise | 12,500 | 739,830 | Form 4 |
| 2025-07-01 | Karas Eric | officer | Option exercise | 15,000 | 25,315 | Form 4 |
| 2025-07-01 | Karas Eric | officer | Option exercise | 15,000 | 544,588 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-25 | SAUNDERS BRENT L | director | Award / grant | 30,000 | 30,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-25 | Thompson Peter A. | director | Award / grant | 30,000 | 30,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-25 | Kelly Michael | director | Award / grant | 30,000 | 30,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-25 | Islam Saqib | director | Award / grant | 30,000 | 30,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-25 | Shah Pratik | director | Award / grant | 30,000 | 30,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-25 | SCHNEIDER PHILLIP M | director | Award / grant | 30,000 | 30,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-25 | Shawver Laura | director | Award / grant | 30,000 | 30,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-25 | RA CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, L.P. | director | Award / grant | 30,000 | 30,000 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.