Issued 2026-09-16 at $7.04 · now $7.04 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, SION has typically landed between $4.46 and $10.17 — a range of −36.7% to +44.5% from the issuance price $7.04.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
382 overlapping 1 month windows · 2025-02-07 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($7.04) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where SION has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $7.04 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $7.04 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $7.55 (+7.2%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $6.59–$8.51
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $4.46–$10.17
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 382 windows spanning 2025-02-07 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2026-07-10 | −90.1% | −90.1% | +12.7% |
| 2026-07-13 | −88.4% | −89.8% | +16.1% |
| 2026-07-17 | −88.0% | −90.9% | +3.3% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2025-04-10 | +68.4% | +0.0% | +77.3% |
| 2026-08-10 | +66.2% | +0.0% | +66.2% |
| 2025-09-22 | +64.2% | +0.0% | +64.2% |
382 overlapping windows · 2025-02-07 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~2 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
100%
+2.7%
n=1
Feb
0%
−13.5%
n=1
Mar
50%
−7.2%
n=2
Apr
50%
+5.8%
n=2
May
100%
+12.2%
n=2
Jun
100%
+14.7%
n=2
Jul
50%
+1.9%
n=2
Aug
50%
−20.2%
n=2
Sep
100%
+18.1%
n=2
Oct
100%
+29.9%
n=1
Nov
100%
+14.0%
n=1
Dec
0%
−5.6%
n=1
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-07 | ORBIMED ADVISORS LLC | director | Sale | 85,918 @ $44.86 | $3.9M | −3.4% of holding | +2.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,469,959 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-07 | Thompson Peter A. | director | Sale | 85,918 @ $44.86 | $3.9M | −3.4% of holding | +2.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,469,959 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-06 | Fitzpatrick Jennifer | officer | Sale | 10,250 @ $43.60 | $447K | −100.0% of holding | +13.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-30 | Thompson Peter A. | director | Sale | 115,844 @ $45.50 | $5.3M | −4.3% of holding | +7.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,555,877 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-30 | ORBIMED ADVISORS LLC | director | Sale | 115,844 @ $45.50 | $5.3M | −4.3% of holding | +7.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,555,877 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-27 | ORBIMED ADVISORS LLC | director | Sale | 101 @ $44.49 | $4K | −0.0% of holding | −0.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,671,721 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-27 | Thompson Peter A. | director | Sale | 101 @ $44.49 | $4K | −0.0% of holding | −0.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,671,721 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-11 | ORBIMED ADVISORS LLC | director | Sale | 184,639 @ $46.22 | $8.5M | −6.5% of holding | −24.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,671,822 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-05-11 | Thompson Peter A. | director | Sale | 184,639 @ $46.22 | $8.5M | −6.5% of holding | −24.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,671,822 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-05-08 | Thompson Peter A. | director | Sale | 59,767 @ $44.58 | $2.7M | −2.0% of holding | −23.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,856,461 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-08 | ORBIMED ADVISORS LLC | director | Sale | 59,767 @ $44.58 | $2.7M | −2.0% of holding | −23.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,856,461 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-07 | Thompson Peter A. | director | Sale | 48,546 @ $44.61 | $2.2M | −1.6% of holding | −23.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,916,228 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-07 | ORBIMED ADVISORS LLC | director | Sale | 48,546 @ $44.61 | $2.2M | −1.6% of holding | −23.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,916,228 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-18 | ORBIMED ADVISORS LLC | director | Sale | 2,948 @ $44.52 | $131K | −0.1% of holding | −13.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,964,774 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-18 | Thompson Peter A. | director | Sale | 2,948 @ $44.52 | $131K | −0.1% of holding | −13.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,964,774 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-17 | ORBIMED ADVISORS LLC | director | Sale | 52,397 @ $44.68 | $2.3M | −1.7% of holding | −13.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,967,722 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-17 | Thompson Peter A. | director | Sale | 52,397 @ $44.68 | $2.3M | −1.7% of holding | −13.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,967,722 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-16 | ORBIMED ADVISORS LLC | director | Sale | 226,906 @ $45.34 | $10.3M | −7.0% of holding | −16.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 3,020,119 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-04-16 | Thompson Peter A. | director | Sale | 226,906 @ $45.34 | $10.3M | −7.0% of holding | −16.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 3,020,119 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-04-15 | ORBIMED ADVISORS LLC | director | Sale | 235,863 @ $44.64 | $10.5M | −6.8% of holding | −12.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 3,247,025 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-15 | Thompson Peter A. | director | Sale | 235,863 @ $44.64 | $10.5M | −6.8% of holding | −12.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 3,247,025 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-14 | Thompson Peter A. | director | Sale | 47,814 @ $44.51 | $2.1M | −1.4% of holding | −7.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 3,482,888 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-14 | ORBIMED ADVISORS LLC | director | Sale | 47,814 @ $44.51 | $2.1M | −1.4% of holding | −7.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 3,482,888 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-05 | Fitzpatrick Jennifer | officer | Sale | 10,250 @ $33.86 | $347K | −100.0% of holding | +11.2% | −94.6% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-03 | ORBIMED ADVISORS LLC | director | Sale | 29,063 @ $44.58 | $1.3M | −0.8% of holding | −21.1% | −5.8% | 3,530,702 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-03 | Thompson Peter A. | director | Sale | 29,063 @ $44.58 | $1.3M | −0.8% of holding | −21.1% | −5.8% | 3,530,702 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-02 | Thompson Peter A. | director | Sale | 1,890 @ $44.57 | $84K | −0.1% of holding | −19.3% | +2.9% | 3,559,765 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-02 | ORBIMED ADVISORS LLC | director | Sale | 1,890 @ $44.57 | $84K | −0.1% of holding | −19.3% | +2.9% | 3,559,765 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-22 | TPG GP A, LLC | other | Sale | 250,000 @ $40.00 | $10.0M | −3.7% of holding | −12.6% | +1.6% | 6,494,962 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-24 | Thompson Peter A. | director | Sale | 33,356 @ $44.55 | $1.5M | −0.9% of holding | −2.2% | −10.3% | 3,561,655 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-24 | ORBIMED ADVISORS LLC | director | Sale | 33,356 @ $44.55 | $1.5M | −0.9% of holding | −2.2% | −10.3% | 3,561,655 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-19 | ORBIMED ADVISORS LLC | director | Sale | 875 @ $44.49 | $39K | −0.0% of holding | −2.6% | −11.3% | 3,595,011 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-12-19 | Thompson Peter A. | director | Sale | 875 @ $44.49 | $39K | −0.0% of holding | −2.6% | −11.3% | 3,595,011 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-12-18 | Thompson Peter A. | director | Sale | 100 @ $44.49 | $4K | −0.0% of holding | −9.4% | −19.2% | 3,595,886 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-18 | ORBIMED ADVISORS LLC | director | Sale | 100 @ $44.49 | $4K | −0.0% of holding | −9.4% | −19.2% | 3,595,886 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-17 | Thompson Peter A. | director | Sale | 900 @ $44.50 | $40K | −0.0% of holding | −8.4% | −21.7% | 3,595,986 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-17 | ORBIMED ADVISORS LLC | director | Sale | 900 @ $44.50 | $40K | −0.0% of holding | −8.4% | −21.7% | 3,595,986 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-05 | Fitzpatrick Jennifer | officer | Sale | 10,250 @ $40.52 | $415K | −100.0% of holding | +6.4% | −24.5% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-26 | Thompson Peter A. | director | Sale | 1,600 @ $44.49 | $71K | −0.0% of holding | −3.7% | −18.8% | 3,596,886 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-11-26 | ORBIMED ADVISORS LLC | director | Sale | 1,600 @ $44.49 | $71K | −0.0% of holding | −3.7% | −18.8% | 3,596,886 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-11-25 | ORBIMED ADVISORS LLC | director | Sale | 11,890 @ $44.60 | $530K | −0.3% of holding | −3.9% | −16.0% | 3,598,486 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-25 | Thompson Peter A. | director | Sale | 11,890 @ $44.60 | $530K | −0.3% of holding | −3.9% | −16.0% | 3,598,486 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-24 | Thompson Peter A. | director | Sale | 94,583 @ $44.54 | $4.2M | −2.6% of holding | −4.3% | −17.0% | 3,610,376 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-24 | ORBIMED ADVISORS LLC | director | Sale | 94,583 @ $44.54 | $4.2M | −2.6% of holding | −4.3% | −17.0% | 3,610,376 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-21 | RA CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, L.P. | director | Sale | 9,924 @ $39.50 | $392K | −1.5% of holding | −5.2% | −15.0% | 650,307 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-21 | RA CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, L.P. | director | Sale | 7,609 @ $39.50 | $301K | −4.6% of holding | −5.2% | −15.0% | 159,033 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-21 | RA CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, L.P. | director | Sale | 6,440 @ $39.50 | $254K | −0.3% of holding | −5.2% | −15.0% | 2,198,082 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-21 | RA CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, L.P. | director | Sale | 1,210 @ $39.50 | $48K | −0.0% of holding | −5.2% | −15.0% | 6,897,623 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-20 | RA CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, L.P. | director | Sale | 1,235 @ $39.89 | $49K | −0.2% of holding | +3.7% | −5.6% | 661,019 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-20 | RA CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, L.P. | director | Sale | 947 @ $39.89 | $38K | −0.6% of holding | +3.7% | −5.6% | 167,246 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-20 | RA CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, L.P. | director | Sale | 801 @ $39.89 | $32K | −0.0% of holding | +3.7% | −5.6% | 2,205,034 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-20 | RA CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, L.P. | director | Sale | 788 @ $40.50 | $32K | −0.1% of holding | +3.7% | −5.6% | 660,231 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-20 | RA CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, L.P. | director | Sale | 604 @ $40.50 | $24K | −0.4% of holding | +3.7% | −5.6% | 166,642 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-20 | RA CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, L.P. | director | Sale | 512 @ $40.50 | $21K | −0.0% of holding | +3.7% | −5.6% | 2,204,522 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-20 | RA CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, L.P. | director | Sale | 150 @ $39.89 | $6K | −0.0% of holding | +3.7% | −5.6% | 6,898,929 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-20 | RA CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, L.P. | director | Sale | 96 @ $40.50 | $4K | −0.0% of holding | +3.7% | −5.6% | 6,898,833 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-19 | RA CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, L.P. | director | Sale | 18,684 @ $40.01 | $748K | −2.7% of holding | +7.3% | −6.1% | 662,266 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-11-19 | RA CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, L.P. | director | Sale | 14,325 @ $40.01 | $573K | −7.8% of holding | +7.3% | −6.1% | 168,202 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-11-19 | RA CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, L.P. | director | Sale | 12,126 @ $40.01 | $485K | −0.5% of holding | +7.3% | −6.1% | 2,205,843 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-11-19 | RA CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, L.P. | director | Sale | 2,276 @ $40.01 | $91K | −0.0% of holding | +7.3% | −6.1% | 6,899,081 | Form 4 · filed same day |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
134 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-06 | Fitzpatrick Jennifer | officer | Option exercise | 10,250 | 10,250 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-06 | Fitzpatrick Jennifer | officer | Option exercise | 10,250 | 40,685 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-17 | Fleming Harold Edward | director | Award / grant | 17,340 | 17,340 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-17 | Resnick Joshua | director | Award / grant | 17,340 | 17,340 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-17 | RA CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, L.P. | director | Award / grant | 17,340 | 17,340 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-17 | Viney Joanne L. | director | Award / grant | 17,340 | 17,340 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-17 | Stelzer Laurie | director | Award / grant | 17,340 | 17,340 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-17 | Thompson Peter A. | director | Award / grant | 17,340 | 17,340 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-17 | Ruddy Marcella K. | director | Award / grant | 17,340 | 17,340 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-17 | Booth Bruce | director | Award / grant | 17,340 | 17,340 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-17 | Clancy Paul J | director | Award / grant | 17,340 | 17,340 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-05 | Fitzpatrick Jennifer | officer | Option exercise | 10,250 | 10,250 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-05 | Fitzpatrick Jennifer | officer | Option exercise | 10,250 | 50,935 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-02 | McKee Charlotte | officer | Award / grant | 155,700 | 155,700 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-02 | Fitzpatrick Jennifer | officer | Award / grant | 103,140 | 103,140 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-02 | Ridloff Elena | director | Award / grant | 165,440 | 165,440 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-02 | Beer Caroline Stark | officer | Award / grant | 139,340 | 139,340 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-02 | Cloonan Michael | director | Award / grant | 436,100 | 436,100 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-05 | Fitzpatrick Jennifer | officer | Option exercise | 10,250 | 10,250 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-05 | Fitzpatrick Jennifer | officer | Option exercise | 10,250 | 61,185 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-21 | Cloonan Michael | director | Option exercise | 33,532 | 580,875 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-21 | Cloonan Michael | director | Option exercise | 30,049 | 577,392 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-21 | Cloonan Michael | director | Option exercise | 22,895 | 570,238 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-21 | Cloonan Michael | director | Option exercise | 13,324 | 560,667 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-21 | Cloonan Michael | director | Option exercise | 33,532 | 53,142 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-21 | Cloonan Michael | director | Option exercise | 22,895 | 86,674 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-21 | Cloonan Michael | director | Option exercise | 13,324 | 139,618 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-21 | Cloonan Michael | director | Option exercise | 30,049 | 109,569 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-16 | Cloonan Michael | director | Option exercise | 10,225 | 557,568 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-16 | Cloonan Michael | director | Option exercise | 200 | 547,543 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-16 | Cloonan Michael | director | Option exercise | 200 | 152,942 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-16 | Cloonan Michael | director | Option exercise | 10,225 | 153,142 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-15 | Cloonan Michael | director | Option exercise | 14,775 | 562,118 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-15 | Cloonan Michael | director | Option exercise | 14,775 | 163,367 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-01 | Beer Caroline Stark | officer | Award / grant | 255,000 | 255,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-29 | Cloonan Michael | director | Option exercise | 7,793 | 555,136 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-29 | Cloonan Michael | director | Option exercise | 7,793 | 178,142 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-26 | Cloonan Michael | director | Option exercise | 17,207 | 564,550 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-26 | Cloonan Michael | director | Option exercise | 17,207 | 185,935 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-04 | Fitzpatrick Jennifer | officer | Option exercise | 10,250 | 10,250 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.