Issued 2026-09-25 at $434.15 · now $434.15 (2026-09-25, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-25 close, ROK has typically landed between $379.17 and $493.26 — a range of −12.7% to +13.6% from the issuance price $434.15.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
4,692 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-26 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Base rate up 53.7% (90% CI 51.5–55.9%, ≈1,391 obs). Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-25 issuance close ($434.15) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-26, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where ROK has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-25 close of $434.15 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $434.15 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $437.72 (+0.8%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $414.84–$460.6
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $379.17–$493.26
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2020-02-21 | −42.4% | −42.4% | +0.0% |
| 2008-09-26 | −39.3% | −39.3% | +0.1% |
| 2008-09-25 | −39.3% | −39.3% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2009-03-30 | +51.5% | +0.0% | +51.5% |
| 2009-04-06 | +45.1% | −2.4% | +45.1% |
| 2009-03-31 | +44.6% | +0.0% | +51.4% |
4,692 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-25 · not cherry-picked
Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.
Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.
iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 74 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.- DCF (intrinsic)$117.38
- Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 30.7× · n=74$294.88
- Analyst target · range $430.00–$525.00$500.00
- Current price · last close 2026-09-25$434.15
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-08 | Woods Isaac | officer | Sale | 110 @ $432.83 | $48K | −5.6% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,858 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-08 | Woods Isaac | officer | Sale | 44 @ $432.11 | $19K | −2.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,968 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-02 | Bulho Matheus De A G Viera | officer | Sale | 400 @ $420.14 | $168K | −31.6% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 867 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-31 | Bulho Matheus De A G Viera | officer | Sale | 467 @ $426.96 | $199K | −26.9% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,267 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-27 | Watson Patricia A | director | Sale | 1,100 @ $431.43 | $475K | −14.7% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 6,385 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-20 | Rothe Christian E | officer | Sale | 590 @ $434.30 | $256K | −5.4% of holding | −2.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 10,429 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-16 | Riesterer Terry L. | officer | Sale | 281 @ $453.24 | $127K | −14.9% of holding | −7.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,602 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-04 | Fordenwalt Matthew W. | officer | Sale | 377 @ $460.51 | $174K | −7.8% of holding | +2.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 4,437 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-06-02 | Fordenwalt Matthew W. | officer | Sale | 218 @ $456.34 | $99K | −4.3% of holding | +3.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 4,814 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-20 | MILLER JOHN M | officer | Sale | 700 @ $426.02 | $298K | −10.5% of holding | +8.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 5,969 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-20 | MILLER JOHN M | officer | Sale | 354 @ $426.02 | $151K | −5.9% of holding | +8.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 5,615 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-07 | Riesterer Terry L. | officer | Sale | 2,924 @ $452.02 | $1.3M | −95.6% of holding | −0.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 134 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-07 | Riesterer Terry L. | officer | Sale | 1,100 @ $451.83 | $497K | −26.5% of holding | −0.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 3,058 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-05 | Nardecchia Christopher | officer | Sale | 1,402 @ $447.37 | $627K | −8.7% of holding | +1.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 14,782 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-05 | Nardecchia Christopher | officer | Sale | 586 @ $440.82 | $258K | −3.5% of holding | +1.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 16,184 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-05 | Nardecchia Christopher | officer | Sale | 550 @ $450.04 | $248K | −3.7% of holding | +1.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 14,232 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-05 | GENEREUX SCOTT | officer | Sale | 550 @ $447.73 | $246K | −16.6% of holding | +1.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,764 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-05 | Fordenwalt Matthew W. | officer | Sale | 460 @ $449.98 | $207K | −9.4% of holding | +1.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 4,437 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-05 | Fordenwalt Matthew W. | officer | Sale | 140 @ $448.26 | $63K | −2.8% of holding | +1.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 4,897 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-13 | Fordenwalt Matthew W. | officer | Sale | 1,200 @ $400.00 | $480K | −21.3% of holding | +4.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 4,437 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-10 | Perducat Cyril | officer | Sale | 198 @ $395.00 | $78K | −3.1% of holding | +6.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 6,241 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-08 | Bulho Matheus De A G Viera | officer | Sale | 1,250 @ $387.50 | $484K | −41.9% of holding | +6.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,734 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-02 | Bulho Matheus De A G Viera | officer | Sale | 299 @ $359.00 | $107K | −9.1% of holding | +0.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,984 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-02 | Buttermore Robert L. | director | Sale | 3,427 @ $399.63 | $1.4M | −41.8% of holding | −7.9% | −9.0% | 4,772 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-02 | Buttermore Robert L. | director | Sale | 1,672 @ $398.34 | $666K | −16.9% of holding | −7.9% | −9.0% | 8,199 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-02 | Buttermore Robert L. | director | Sale | 1,084 @ $400.67 | $434K | −22.7% of holding | −7.9% | −9.0% | 3,688 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-02 | Buttermore Robert L. | director | Sale | 979 @ $396.18 | $388K | −8.3% of holding | −7.9% | −9.0% | 10,831 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-02 | Buttermore Robert L. | director | Sale | 960 @ $397.23 | $381K | −8.9% of holding | −7.9% | −9.0% | 9,871 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-02 | Buttermore Robert L. | director | Sale | 410 @ $402.25 | $165K | −11.1% of holding | −7.9% | −9.0% | 3,278 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-02 | Buttermore Robert L. | director | Sale | 400 @ $397.83 | $159K | −12.2% of holding | −7.9% | −9.0% | 2,878 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-26 | Nardecchia Christopher | officer | Sale | 14,465 @ $410.01 | $5.9M | −50.4% of holding | −6.8% | −6.9% | 14,232 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-25 | GENEREUX SCOTT | officer | Sale | 4,861 @ $404.24 | $2.0M | −32.0% of holding | −5.1% | −3.5% | 10,334 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-25 | GENEREUX SCOTT | officer | Sale | 3,899 @ $405.47 | $1.6M | −37.7% of holding | −5.1% | −3.5% | 6,435 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-25 | House Rebecca W | director | Sale | 3,536 @ $404.11 | $1.4M | −17.2% of holding | −5.1% | −3.5% | 17,032 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-25 | House Rebecca W | director | Sale | 3,455 @ $405.41 | $1.4M | −20.3% of holding | −5.1% | −3.5% | 13,577 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-25 | GENEREUX SCOTT | officer | Sale | 2,942 @ $402.16 | $1.2M | −14.2% of holding | −5.1% | −3.5% | 17,779 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-25 | GENEREUX SCOTT | officer | Sale | 2,584 @ $403.10 | $1.0M | −14.5% of holding | −5.1% | −3.5% | 15,195 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-25 | Myers Tessa M. | director | Sale | 1,985 @ $409.37 | $813K | −33.0% of holding | −5.1% | −3.5% | 4,036 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-25 | House Rebecca W | director | Sale | 1,996 @ $402.94 | $804K | −8.8% of holding | −5.1% | −3.5% | 20,568 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-25 | House Rebecca W | director | Sale | 1,736 @ $401.96 | $698K | −7.1% of holding | −5.1% | −3.5% | 22,564 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-25 | GENEREUX SCOTT | officer | Sale | 1,381 @ $406.42 | $561K | −21.5% of holding | −5.1% | −3.5% | 5,054 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-25 | GENEREUX SCOTT | officer | Sale | 1,200 @ $409.37 | $491K | −26.6% of holding | −5.1% | −3.5% | 3,314 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-25 | House Rebecca W | director | Sale | 677 @ $406.37 | $275K | −5.0% of holding | −5.1% | −3.5% | 12,900 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-25 | House Rebecca W | director | Sale | 620 @ $406.92 | $252K | −4.8% of holding | −5.1% | −3.5% | 12,280 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-25 | GENEREUX SCOTT | officer | Sale | 460 @ $407.04 | $187K | −9.1% of holding | −5.1% | −3.5% | 4,594 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-25 | Fordenwalt Matthew W. | officer | Sale | 405 @ $404.16 | $164K | −7.8% of holding | −5.1% | −3.5% | 4,797 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-25 | Woods Isaac | officer | Sale | 371 @ $409.37 | $152K | −18.0% of holding | −5.1% | −3.5% | 1,687 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-25 | Woods Isaac | officer | Sale | 360 @ $404.06 | $145K | −13.1% of holding | −5.1% | −3.5% | 2,378 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-25 | Fordenwalt Matthew W. | officer | Sale | 280 @ $405.60 | $114K | −5.8% of holding | −5.1% | −3.5% | 4,517 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-25 | Woods Isaac | officer | Sale | 280 @ $405.35 | $113K | −11.8% of holding | −5.1% | −3.5% | 2,098 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-25 | Fordenwalt Matthew W. | officer | Sale | 280 @ $403.21 | $113K | −5.1% of holding | −5.1% | −3.5% | 5,202 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-25 | Woods Isaac | officer | Sale | 220 @ $402.35 | $89K | −7.4% of holding | −5.1% | −3.5% | 2,738 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-25 | Fordenwalt Matthew W. | officer | Sale | 155 @ $402.11 | $62K | −2.7% of holding | −5.1% | −3.5% | 5,482 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-25 | GENEREUX SCOTT | officer | Sale | 80 @ $408.00 | $33K | −1.7% of holding | −5.1% | −3.5% | 4,514 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-25 | House Rebecca W | director | Sale | 80 @ $408.00 | $33K | −0.7% of holding | −5.1% | −3.5% | 12,200 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-25 | Fordenwalt Matthew W. | officer | Sale | 40 @ $407.90 | $16K | −0.9% of holding | −5.1% | −3.5% | 4,437 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-25 | Woods Isaac | officer | Sale | 40 @ $406.87 | $16K | −1.9% of holding | −5.1% | −3.5% | 2,058 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-25 | Fordenwalt Matthew W. | officer | Sale | 40 @ $406.42 | $16K | −0.9% of holding | −5.1% | −3.5% | 4,477 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-17 | Buttermore Robert L. | director | Sale | 204 @ $380.14 | $78K | −5.9% of holding | −5.1% | −0.6% | 3,278 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-01-02 | Riesterer Terry L. | officer | Sale | 800 @ $392.00 | $314K | −39.3% of holding | +7.0% | +8.4% | 1,234 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
161 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-05 | Woods Isaac | officer | Option exercise | 325 | 2,012 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-05 | Woods Isaac | officer | Option exercise | 325 | 325 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-19 | Rothe Christian E | officer | Option exercise | 1,257 | 1,257 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-19 | Rothe Christian E | officer | Option exercise | 1,257 | 11,019 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-16 | Riesterer Terry L. | officer | Option exercise | 849 | 1,883 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-16 | Riesterer Terry L. | officer | Option exercise | 849 | 850 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Gipson William P | director | Award / grant | 69 | 5,662 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | Fordenwalt Matthew W. | officer | Option exercise | 595 | 5,032 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | Fordenwalt Matthew W. | officer | Option exercise | 595 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-20 | MILLER JOHN M | officer | Option exercise | 700 | 6,669 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-20 | MILLER JOHN M | officer | Option exercise | 700 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-08 | Riesterer Terry L. | officer | Option exercise | 400 | 1,034 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-08 | Riesterer Terry L. | officer | Option exercise | 500 | 634 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-08 | Riesterer Terry L. | officer | Option exercise | 400 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-08 | Riesterer Terry L. | officer | Option exercise | 500 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-07 | Riesterer Terry L. | officer | Option exercise | 1,246 | 3,380 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-07 | Riesterer Terry L. | officer | Option exercise | 900 | 2,134 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-07 | Riesterer Terry L. | officer | Option exercise | 778 | 4,158 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-07 | Riesterer Terry L. | officer | Option exercise | 778 | 689 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-07 | Riesterer Terry L. | officer | Option exercise | 1,246 | 300 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-07 | Riesterer Terry L. | officer | Option exercise | 900 | 400 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-05 | Nardecchia Christopher | officer | Option exercise | 2,538 | 16,770 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-05 | Fordenwalt Matthew W. | officer | Option exercise | 600 | 5,037 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-05 | Fordenwalt Matthew W. | officer | Option exercise | 600 | 450 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-05 | Nardecchia Christopher | officer | Option exercise | 2,538 | 200 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-16 | ZAPICO DAVID A | director | Award / grant | 229 | 229 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-13 | Fordenwalt Matthew W. | officer | Option exercise | 1,200 | 5,637 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-13 | Fordenwalt Matthew W. | officer | Option exercise | 1,200 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-09 | Perducat Cyril | officer | Option exercise | 581 | 582 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-09 | Perducat Cyril | officer | Option exercise | 581 | 6,439 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Bulho Matheus De A G Viera | officer | Option exercise | 882 | 3,283 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Gipson William P | director | Award / grant | 90 | 5,593 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Bulho Matheus De A G Viera | officer | Option exercise | 882 | 883 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-02 | Buttermore Robert L. | director | Option exercise | 3,525 | 10,199 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-02 | Buttermore Robert L. | director | Option exercise | 1,611 | 11,810 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-02 | Buttermore Robert L. | director | Option exercise | 1,546 | 6,674 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-02 | Buttermore Robert L. | director | Option exercise | 1,050 | 5,128 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-02 | Buttermore Robert L. | director | Option exercise | 800 | 4,078 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-02 | Buttermore Robert L. | director | Option exercise | 1,611 | 3,524 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-02 | Buttermore Robert L. | director | Option exercise | 1,546 | 0 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.
As of 2026-09-25 · point-in-time by filed date
A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).
| Member | Chamber | Type | Filed | Traded | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-07-06 | 2026-06-05 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-06-09 | 2026-05-01 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-05-11 | 2026-04-24 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-04-07 | 2026-03-06 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-03-09 | 2026-02-06 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-03-09 | 2026-02-05 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-03-09 | 2026-02-24 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-02-06 | 2026-01-23 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-02-06 | 2026-01-29 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-02-06 | 2026-01-02 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2025-11-06 | 2025-10-03 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2025-08-07 | 2025-07-02 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2025-08-07 | 2025-07-02 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2025-07-09 | 2025-06-06 | $15–50K |
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.