Issued 2026-09-16 at $12.96 · now $12.96 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, REPL has typically landed between $8.51 and $17.80 — a range of −34.4% to +37.3% from the issuance price $12.96.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
2,023 overlapping 1 month windows · 2018-07-20 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($12.96) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where REPL has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $12.96 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $12.96 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $12.86 (-0.7%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $10.98–$14.74
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $8.51–$17.8
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 2,023 windows spanning 2018-07-20 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2026-03-12 | −74.3% | −74.3% | +12.7% |
| 2026-03-19 | −73.0% | −73.0% | +23.9% |
| 2026-03-16 | −70.2% | −73.5% | +16.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2026-05-01 | +299.2% | +0.0% | +299.2% |
| 2026-04-29 | +278.2% | +0.0% | +278.2% |
| 2026-04-30 | +245.1% | −2.7% | +250.2% |
2,023 overlapping windows · 2018-07-20 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~9 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
63%
−1.4%
n=8
Feb
38%
−5.1%
n=8
Mar
25%
−8.8%
n=8
Apr
50%
+2.1%
n=8
May
50%
+6.0%
n=8
Jun
88%
+36.6%
n=8
Jul
25%
−14.1%
n=8
Aug
44%
+22.4%
n=9
Sep
22%
−6.6%
n=9
Oct
63%
+26.8%
n=8
Nov
63%
+3.6%
n=8
Dec
25%
−8.7%
n=8
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-17 | Hill Emily Luisa | officer | Sale | 9,256 @ $14.28 | $132K | −4.1% of holding | −9.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 215,852 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-11 | BAKER BROS. ADVISORS LP | director | Purchase | 2,609,946 @ $12.06 | $31.5M | ownership Δ n/a | −1.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,609,946 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-11 | BAKER BROS. ADVISORS LP | director | Purchase | 126,394 @ $12.06 | $1.5M | ownership Δ n/a | −1.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 126,394 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-10 | Patel Sushil | director | Sale | 39,341 @ $12.97 | $510K | −5.3% of holding | +7.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 708,151 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-10 | Hill Emily Luisa | officer | Sale | 11,448 @ $12.97 | $148K | −4.8% of holding | +7.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 225,108 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-10 | Xynos Konstantinos | officer | Sale | 11,447 @ $12.97 | $148K | −4.9% of holding | +7.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 224,215 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-10 | Schwendenman Andrew | officer | Sale | 7,632 @ $12.97 | $99K | −7.1% of holding | +7.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 99,425 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-01 | Sarchi Christopher | officer | Sale | 12,000 @ $9.24 | $111K | −6.2% of holding | +26.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 180,962 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-18 | Patel Sushil | director | Sale | 37,324 @ $5.08 | $190K | −4.8% of holding | +102.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 747,492 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-18 | Astley-Sparke Philip | director | Sale | 17,657 @ $5.08 | $90K | −1.2% of holding | +102.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,412,414 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-18 | Xynos Konstantinos | officer | Sale | 14,023 @ $5.08 | $71K | −5.6% of holding | +102.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 235,662 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-18 | Sarchi Christopher | officer | Sale | 8,626 @ $5.08 | $44K | −4.3% of holding | +102.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 192,962 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-18 | Schwendenman Andrew | officer | Sale | 7,894 @ $5.08 | $40K | −6.9% of holding | +102.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 107,057 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-18 | Hill Emily Luisa | officer | Sale | 7,812 @ $5.08 | $40K | −3.2% of holding | +102.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 236,556 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-02 | Sarchi Christopher | officer | Sale | 6,500 @ $8.01 | $52K | −4.1% of holding | −76.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 151,588 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-09 | Dhingra Kapil | director | Sale | 3,169 @ $10.40 | $33K | −100.0% of holding | −24.0% | −24.1% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-02 | Patel Sushil | director | Sale | 10,000 @ $11.13 | $111K | −2.9% of holding | −11.5% | −19.4% | 333,576 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-17 | Xynos Konstantinos | officer | Sale | 7,248 @ $9.10 | $66K | −4.9% of holding | +9.3% | −52.7% | 139,685 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-17 | Sarchi Christopher | officer | Sale | 5,208 @ $9.10 | $47K | −4.1% of holding | +9.3% | −52.7% | 123,088 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-15 | Hill Emily Luisa | officer | Sale | 9,154 @ $5.37 | $49K | −6.4% of holding | +1.6% | +37.3% | 134,368 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-20 | Astley-Sparke Philip | director | Sale | 32,279 @ $8.06 | $260K | −2.2% of holding | +0.3% | −11.7% | 1,405,071 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-20 | Patel Sushil | director | Sale | 25,105 @ $8.06 | $202K | −6.8% of holding | +0.3% | −11.7% | 343,576 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-20 | Xynos Konstantinos | officer | Sale | 7,952 @ $8.06 | $64K | −5.1% of holding | +0.3% | −11.7% | 146,933 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-20 | Sarchi Christopher | officer | Sale | 3,749 @ $8.05 | $30K | −2.8% of holding | +0.3% | −11.7% | 128,296 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-20 | Schwendenman Andrew | officer | Sale | 3,287 @ $8.05 | $26K | −4.6% of holding | +0.3% | −11.7% | 68,284 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-20 | Hill Emily Luisa | officer | Sale | 2,535 @ $8.05 | $20K | −1.7% of holding | +0.3% | −11.7% | 143,522 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2024-12-16 | Patel Sushil | director | Sale | 10,000 @ $12.42 | $124K | −4.7% of holding | −17.6% | −24.6% | 202,014 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
47 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-20 | Astley-Sparke Philip | director | Gift | 50,000 | 1,362,414 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | SLATTERY JOSEPH P | director | Award / grant | 44,500 | 44,500 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Schwendenman Andrew | officer | Award / grant | 36,667 | 114,951 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Schwendenman Andrew | officer | Award / grant | 55,000 | 55,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Sarchi Christopher | officer | Award / grant | 50,000 | 201,588 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Sarchi Christopher | officer | Award / grant | 75,000 | 75,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Hill Emily Luisa | officer | Award / grant | 50,000 | 244,368 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Hill Emily Luisa | officer | Award / grant | 75,000 | 75,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Oliger Christy J. | director | Award / grant | 44,500 | 44,500 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Weinand Dieter | director | Award / grant | 44,500 | 44,500 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Xynos Konstantinos | officer | Award / grant | 50,000 | 249,685 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Xynos Konstantinos | officer | Award / grant | 75,000 | 75,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | BAKER BROS. ADVISORS LP | director | Award / grant | 44,500 | 44,500 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Astley-Sparke Philip | director | Award / grant | 50,000 | 1,430,071 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Astley-Sparke Philip | director | Award / grant | 75,000 | 75,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Balachandran Madhavan | director | Award / grant | 44,500 | 44,500 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Dhingra Kapil | director | Award / grant | 44,500 | 44,500 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Patel Sushil | director | Award / grant | 251,240 | 784,816 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Patel Sushil | director | Award / grant | 376,860 | 376,860 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Peeples-Dyer Veleka | director | Award / grant | 44,500 | 44,500 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Pucci Paolo | director | Award / grant | 44,500 | 44,500 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-18 | Astley-Sparke Philip | director | Gift | 25,000 | 1,380,071 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-19 | Hill Emily Luisa | officer | Award / grant | 60,000 | 194,368 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-19 | Xynos Konstantinos | officer | Award / grant | 60,000 | 199,685 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-19 | Sarchi Christopher | officer | Award / grant | 35,000 | 158,088 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-19 | Schwendenman Andrew | officer | Award / grant | 10,000 | 78,284 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-19 | Patel Sushil | director | Award / grant | 200,000 | 533,576 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-09 | Dhingra Kapil | director | Option exercise | 3,169 | 3,169 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-09 | Dhingra Kapil | director | Option exercise | 3,169 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2025-04-01 | Patel Sushil | director | Award / grant | 166,667 | 368,681 | Form 4 |
| 2025-04-01 | Patel Sushil | director | Award / grant | 250,000 | 250,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-04-01 | Peeples-Dyer Veleka | director | Award / grant | 32,000 | 32,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-04-01 | Xynos Konstantinos | officer | Award / grant | 45,000 | 154,885 | Form 4 |
| 2025-04-01 | Xynos Konstantinos | officer | Award / grant | 67,500 | 67,500 | Form 4 |
| 2025-04-01 | Weinand Dieter | director | Award / grant | 32,000 | 32,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-04-01 | Pucci Paolo | director | Award / grant | 32,000 | 32,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-04-01 | Dhingra Kapil | director | Award / grant | 32,000 | 32,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-04-01 | Balachandran Madhavan | director | Award / grant | 32,000 | 32,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-04-01 | Hill Emily Luisa | officer | Award / grant | 45,000 | 146,057 | Form 4 |
| 2025-04-01 | Hill Emily Luisa | officer | Award / grant | 67,500 | 67,500 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.