Issued 2026-09-16 at $10.79 · now $10.79 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, RDW has typically landed between $7.09 and $16.29 — a range of −34.2% to +50.9% from the issuance price $10.79.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
1,403 overlapping 1 month windows · 2021-01-14 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($10.79) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where RDW has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $10.79 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $10.79 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $10.73 (-0.5%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $8.71–$12.76
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $7.09–$16.29
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 1,403 windows spanning 2021-01-14 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2025-02-10 | −58.0% | −58.0% | +8.5% |
| 2025-02-12 | −57.6% | −62.5% | +2.7% |
| 2025-02-11 | −57.2% | −57.2% | +17.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2026-04-28 | +186.5% | −4.9% | +186.5% |
| 2026-04-29 | +185.7% | +0.0% | +201.2% |
| 2026-04-27 | +157.2% | −7.8% | +157.2% |
1,403 overlapping windows · 2021-01-14 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~6 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
80%
+22.1%
n=5
Feb
50%
+0.3%
n=6
Mar
50%
+3.2%
n=6
Apr
50%
−0.3%
n=6
May
50%
+30.5%
n=6
Jun
67%
−3.3%
n=6
Jul
33%
+0.9%
n=6
Aug
33%
−7.5%
n=6
Sep
50%
−4.3%
n=6
Oct
60%
+6.1%
n=5
Nov
20%
−0.2%
n=5
Dec
60%
+7.3%
n=5
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-11 | AE RED HOLDINGS, LLC | director | Sale | 1,070,565 @ $21.48 | $23.0M | −49.8% of holding | −45.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,077,419 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-18 | AE RED HOLDINGS, LLC | director | Sale | 9,588,077 @ $13.30 | $127.5M | −98.7% of holding | +2.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 128,440 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-18 | AE RED HOLDINGS, LLC | director | Sale | 5,659,509 @ $14.50 | $82.1M | −36.8% of holding | +2.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 9,716,517 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-22 | AE RED HOLDINGS, LLC | director | Sale | 21,365,909 @ $10.85 | $231.8M | −99.4% of holding | +24.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 128,440 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-21 | AE RED HOLDINGS, LLC | director | Sale | 977,887 @ $10.57 | $10.3M | −4.4% of holding | +38.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 21,494,349 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-20 | AE RED HOLDINGS, LLC | director | Sale | 1,766,372 @ $10.23 | $18.1M | −7.3% of holding | +32.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 22,472,236 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-17 | AE RED HOLDINGS, LLC | director | Sale | 2,034,536 @ $10.77 | $21.9M | −7.7% of holding | +31.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 24,238,608 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-16 | AE RED HOLDINGS, LLC | director | Sale | 3,145,207 @ $10.57 | $33.2M | −10.7% of holding | +20.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 26,273,144 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-15 | AE RED HOLDINGS, LLC | director | Sale | 692,936 @ $9.70 | $6.7M | −2.3% of holding | +34.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 29,418,351 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-14 | AE RED HOLDINGS, LLC | director | Sale | 1,202,375 @ $9.92 | $11.9M | −3.8% of holding | +9.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 30,111,287 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-13 | AE RED HOLDINGS, LLC | director | Sale | 790,393 @ $9.78 | $7.7M | −2.5% of holding | +8.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 31,313,662 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-10 | AE RED HOLDINGS, LLC | director | Sale | 581,018 @ $9.31 | $5.4M | −1.8% of holding | +22.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 32,104,055 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-09 | AE RED HOLDINGS, LLC | director | Sale | 542,368 @ $9.37 | $5.1M | −1.6% of holding | +11.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 32,685,073 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-08 | AE RED HOLDINGS, LLC | director | Sale | 407,776 @ $10.17 | $4.1M | −1.2% of holding | −12.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 33,227,441 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-25 | AE RED HOLDINGS, LLC | director | Sale | 2,500,000 @ $9.45 | $23.6M | −6.9% of holding | −3.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 33,635,217 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-24 | AE RED HOLDINGS, LLC | director | Sale | 7,500,000 @ $9.15 | $68.6M | −17.2% of holding | +2.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 36,135,217 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-20 | AE RED HOLDINGS, LLC | director | Sale | 27,190 @ $10.06 | $274K | −0.1% of holding | +3.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 43,635,217 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-18 | AE RED HOLDINGS, LLC | director | Sale | 81,319 @ $10.01 | $814K | −0.2% of holding | +0.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 43,662,407 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-17 | AE RED HOLDINGS, LLC | director | Sale | 996,927 @ $10.10 | $10.1M | −2.2% of holding | +5.9% | −6.5% | 43,743,726 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-16 | AE RED HOLDINGS, LLC | director | Sale | 97,066 @ $10.06 | $976K | −0.2% of holding | −1.0% | −1.1% | 44,740,653 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-13 | AE RED HOLDINGS, LLC | director | Sale | 11,615 @ $10.01 | $116K | −0.0% of holding | −2.8% | −6.1% | 44,837,719 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-02 | AE RED HOLDINGS, LLC | director | Sale | 244,666 @ $10.06 | $2.5M | −0.5% of holding | −5.7% | +0.0% | 44,849,334 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-10 | AE RED HOLDINGS, LLC | director | Sale | 49,985 @ $10.01 | $500K | −0.1% of holding | +4.8% | +31.6% | 45,094,000 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-09 | AE RED HOLDINGS, LLC | director | Sale | 1,385,507 @ $10.10 | $14.0M | −3.0% of holding | −3.7% | +22.3% | 45,143,985 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-04 | AE RED HOLDINGS, LLC | director | Sale | 11,761 @ $11.18 | $131K | −0.0% of holding | −12.7% | +5.3% | 46,529,492 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-03 | AE RED HOLDINGS, LLC | director | Sale | 3,357,142 @ $11.18 | $37.5M | −6.7% of holding | −18.3% | −17.0% | 46,541,253 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-02 | AE RED HOLDINGS, LLC | director | Sale | 1,312,126 @ $11.12 | $14.6M | −2.6% of holding | −13.2% | −13.8% | 49,898,395 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-01-30 | AE RED HOLDINGS, LLC | director | Sale | 1,550,179 @ $12.65 | $19.6M | −2.9% of holding | −22.1% | −28.0% | 51,210,521 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-29 | AE RED HOLDINGS, LLC | director | Sale | 3,932,686 @ $12.80 | $50.3M | −6.9% of holding | −24.6% | −40.9% | 52,760,700 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-01-28 | AE RED HOLDINGS, LLC | director | Sale | 4,847,867 @ $13.29 | $64.4M | −7.9% of holding | −30.4% | −43.5% | 56,693,386 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-14 | AE RED HOLDINGS, LLC | director | Sale | 10,500,000 @ $10.52 | $110.5M | −14.6% of holding | −26.0% | −31.6% | 61,541,253 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-01-14 | AE RED HOLDINGS, LLC | director | Sale | 2,156,683 @ $10.49 | $22.6M | −2.9% of holding | −26.0% | −31.6% | 72,041,253 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-01-13 | AE RED HOLDINGS, LLC | director | Sale | 1,662,484 @ $10.34 | $17.2M | −2.2% of holding | −20.4% | −25.4% | 74,197,936 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-12 | AE RED HOLDINGS, LLC | director | Sale | 2,871,715 @ $10.77 | $30.9M | −3.6% of holding | −15.0% | −21.4% | 75,860,420 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-01-09 | AE RED HOLDINGS, LLC | director | Sale | 2,255,356 @ $10.83 | $24.4M | −2.8% of holding | −14.3% | −20.2% | 78,732,135 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-08 | AE RED HOLDINGS, LLC | director | Sale | 1,772,193 @ $10.27 | $18.2M | −2.1% of holding | −2.5% | −15.9% | 80,987,491 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-01-07 | AE RED HOLDINGS, LLC | director | Sale | 872,599 @ $10.08 | $8.8M | −1.0% of holding | +2.0% | −6.5% | 82,759,684 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-06 | AE RED HOLDINGS, LLC | director | Sale | 1,862,063 @ $10.44 | $19.4M | −2.2% of holding | −15.2% | −10.8% | 83,632,283 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-14 | Futch Aaron Michael | officer | Purchase | 18,410 @ $5.45 | $100K | +26.2% of holding | +20.8% | +147.3% | 88,704 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-11-14 | Edmunds Chris | officer | Purchase | 5,500 @ $5.46 | $30K | +5.4% of holding | +20.8% | +147.3% | 107,441 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-11-14 | Futch Aaron Michael | officer | Purchase | 0 @ $5.45 | $1 | +0.0% of holding | +20.8% | +147.3% | 88,704 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-11-13 | Cannito Peter Anthony Jr | director | Purchase | 8,750 @ $5.71 | $50K | +1.7% of holding | +22.6% | +140.5% | 535,478 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-11-11 | Futch Aaron Michael | officer | Purchase | 4,098 @ $6.10 | $25K | +6.2% of holding | +24.2% | +118.1% | 70,293 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-10 | Cannito Peter Anthony Jr | director | Purchase | 32,155 @ $6.21 | $200K | +6.5% of holding | +20.3% | +76.2% | 526,728 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-09-17 | BAIN CAPITAL CREDIT MEMBER, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 11,000,000 @ $7.83 | $86.1M | −100.0% of holding | +8.1% | +21.7% | 0 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-08-11 | Futch Aaron Michael | officer | Purchase | 3,200 @ $9.10 | $29K | +5.1% of holding | −9.3% | −3.1% | 66,195 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-11 | Edmunds Chris | officer | Purchase | 775 @ $8.91 | $7K | +0.8% of holding | −9.3% | −3.1% | 101,941 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-07-17 | BAIN CAPITAL CREDIT MEMBER, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 433 | — | −0.7% of holding | −55.6% | −54.0% | 60,229 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-07-17 | BAIN CAPITAL CREDIT MEMBER, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 433 | — | −0.7% of holding | −55.6% | −54.0% | 60,229 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-07-17 | BAIN CAPITAL CREDIT MEMBER, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 433 | — | −0.7% of holding | −55.6% | −54.0% | 60,229 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-18 | BAIN CAPITAL CREDIT MEMBER, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 11,196 | — | −15.6% of holding | −1.0% | −74.3% | 60,662 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-18 | BAIN CAPITAL CREDIT MEMBER, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 11,196 | — | −15.6% of holding | −1.0% | −74.3% | 60,662 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-18 | BAIN CAPITAL CREDIT MEMBER, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 11,196 | — | −15.6% of holding | −1.0% | −74.3% | 60,662 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-19 | Baliff Jonathan | director | Purchase | 2,170 @ $11.38 | $25K | +0.2% of holding | −4.6% | −47.3% | 1,028,954 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-03-17 | Isham Joanne O'Rourke | director | Purchase | 4,578 @ $11.02 | $50K | +5.8% of holding | −2.4% | −35.1% | 83,595 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-13 | Cannito Peter Anthony Jr | director | Purchase | 10,683 @ $9.36 | $100K | +2.3% of holding | +1.4% | −27.3% | 466,180 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-02-25 | Genesis Park II LP | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 2,338,266 @ $11.50 | $26.9M | −27.8% of holding | −18.9% | −44.4% | 6,067,549 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-02-19 | Genesis Park II LP | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 10,115 @ $24.11 | $244K | −0.3% of holding | −40.3% | −64.7% | 3,644,566 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-02-18 | Genesis Park II LP | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 7,534 @ $25.21 | $190K | −0.2% of holding | −44.3% | −67.8% | 3,654,681 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-02-18 | Genesis Park II LP | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 2,199 @ $13.37 | $29K | −0.7% of holding | −44.3% | −67.8% | 320,243 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
72 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-14 | Cannito Peter Anthony Jr | director | Withheld for tax | 12,631 | 809,996 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-14 | Gold Michael N. | officer | Withheld for tax | 3,777 | 264,866 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-14 | Futch Aaron Michael | officer | Withheld for tax | 2,271 | 131,834 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-14 | Edmunds Chris | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,160 | 200,967 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-14 | Futch Aaron Michael | officer | Award / grant | 45,455 | 134,105 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-14 | Futch Aaron Michael | officer | Award / grant | 45,455 | 45,455 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-14 | Gold Michael N. | officer | Award / grant | 63,637 | 268,643 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-14 | Gold Michael N. | officer | Award / grant | 63,637 | 63,637 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-14 | Cannito Peter Anthony Jr | director | Award / grant | 190,637 | 822,627 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-14 | Cannito Peter Anthony Jr | director | Award / grant | 190,637 | 190,637 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-14 | Edmunds Chris | officer | Award / grant | 76,364 | 202,127 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-14 | Edmunds Chris | officer | Award / grant | 76,364 | 76,364 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-11 | Cannito Peter Anthony Jr | director | Withheld for tax | 25,369 | 631,990 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-11 | Gold Michael N. | officer | Withheld for tax | 11,457 | 205,006 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-11 | Edmunds Chris | officer | Withheld for tax | 3,372 | 125,763 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-11 | Futch Aaron Michael | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,834 | 88,650 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-10 | Heston Gregory L | director | Award / grant | 14,735 | 14,935 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-03 | Cannito Peter Anthony Jr | director | Withheld for tax | 19,168 | 657,359 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-03 | Gold Michael N. | officer | Withheld for tax | 8,122 | 216,463 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-03 | Edmunds Chris | officer | Withheld for tax | 2,522 | 129,135 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-11 | AE RED HOLDINGS, LLC | director | Exercise | 2,000,000 | 2,147,984 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-11 | AE RED HOLDINGS, LLC | director | Exercise | 2,000,000 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-21 | Brothers Louis R Jr | director | Award / grant | 9,772 | 129,043 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-21 | Calvelli Frank | director | Award / grant | 9,772 | 12,771 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-21 | HAYES DOROTHY D | director | Award / grant | 9,772 | 28,881 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-21 | McConville James | director | Award / grant | 9,772 | 28,881 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-21 | Isham Joanne O'Rourke | director | Award / grant | 9,772 | 105,169 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-21 | AE RED HOLDINGS, LLC | director | Award / grant | 19,544 | 147,984 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-18 | AE RED HOLDINGS, LLC | director | Conversion | 15,247,586 | 15,376,026 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-18 | AE RED HOLDINGS, LLC | director | Conversion | 46,505 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-03 | Calvelli Frank | director | Award / grant | 2,999 | 2,999 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-31 | Cannito Peter Anthony Jr | director | Withheld for tax | 116,085 | 674,393 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-31 | Edmunds Chris | officer | Withheld for tax | 16,284 | 131,657 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-31 | Cannito Peter Anthony Jr | director | Option exercise | 127,500 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-31 | Edmunds Chris | officer | Option exercise | 40,500 | 147,941 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-31 | Edmunds Chris | officer | Option exercise | 20,250 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-31 | Cannito Peter Anthony Jr | director | Option exercise | 255,000 | 790,478 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-29 | HAYES DOROTHY D | director | Award / grant | 19,109 | 19,109 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-29 | McConville James | director | Award / grant | 19,109 | 19,109 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-15 | BAIN CAPITAL CREDIT MEMBER, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Conversion | 11,000,000 | 11,000,000 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.