RDVTRed Violet, Inc.Technology · Software - Applicationas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $77.52 · now $77.52 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, RDVT has typically landed between $64.50 and $97.76 — a range of −16.8% to +26.1% from the issuance price $77.52.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

2,108 overlapping 1 month windows · 2018-03-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($77.52) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where RDVT has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $77.52 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$64.5worst · -16.8%$97.76best · +26.1%
  • now $77.52 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $78.15 (+0.8%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $71.7–$84.59
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $64.5–$97.76
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 2,108 windows spanning 2018-03-26 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2018-03-26−86.6%−87.7%+0.0%
2018-04-11−48.4%−48.4%+0.0%
2018-04-10−45.3%−45.3%+0.0%
3 best
2019-04-23+82.5%+0.0%+82.5%
2018-05-10+80.3%+0.0%+80.3%
2019-04-24+78.0%+0.0%+81.5%

2,108 overlapping windows · 2018-03-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~9 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
50%
−5.2%
n=8
Feb
38%
+0.3%
n=8
Mar
25%
−10.0%
n=8
Apr
67%
+3.0%
n=9
May
78%
+19.5%
n=9
Jun
78%
+4.9%
n=9
Jul
67%
+2.9%
n=9
Aug
67%
+6.4%
n=9
Sep
22%
−5.2%
n=9
Oct
75%
+7.6%
n=8
Nov
100%
+16.1%
n=8
Dec
50%
+1.4%
n=8

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$78$342026-08-27: 1 insider purchase, $143K — LIVEK WILLIAM PAUL2026-06-01: 8 insider sales, $2.6M — MacLachlan Daniel, Dubner Derek, Reilly James Patrick, DELL JEFFREY ALAN …2025-11-13: 8 insider sales, $357K — Dubner Derek, MacLachlan Daniel, Reilly James Patrick, DELL JEFFREY ALAN …2025-11-12: 8 insider sales, $869K — Reilly James Patrick, MacLachlan Daniel, Dubner Derek, DELL JEFFREY ALAN …2025-11-11: 4 insider sales, $463K — Dubner Derek, MacLachlan Daniel, Reilly James Patrick, DELL JEFFREY ALAN2025-11-10: 8 insider sales, $1.5M — MacLachlan Daniel, Dubner Derek, Reilly James Patrick, DELL JEFFREY ALAN …2025-11: 28 open-market sales, $3.2M2026-06: 8 open-market sales, $2.6M2026-08: 1 open-market purchase, $143K↑ buys↓ salesdirector LIVEK WILLIAM PAUL — Purchase on 2026-08-27, filed same dayofficer MacLachlan Daniel — Sale on 2026-06-01, filed same daydirector Dubner Derek — Sale on 2026-06-01, filed same dayofficer Reilly James Patrick — Sale on 2026-06-01, filed same daydirector Dubner Derek — Sale on 2026-06-01, filed same dayofficer MacLachlan Daniel — Sale on 2026-06-01, filed same dayofficer Reilly James Patrick — Sale on 2026-06-01, filed same dayofficer DELL JEFFREY ALAN — Sale on 2026-06-01, filed same dayofficer DELL JEFFREY ALAN — Sale on 2026-06-01, filed same daydirector Dubner Derek — Sale on 2025-11-13, filed same dayofficer MacLachlan Daniel — Sale on 2025-11-13, filed same dayofficer Reilly James Patrick — Sale on 2025-11-13, filed same dayofficer DELL JEFFREY ALAN — Sale on 2025-11-13, filed same dayofficer Reilly James Patrick — Sale on 2025-11-13, filed same dayofficer MacLachlan Daniel — Sale on 2025-11-13, filed same daydirector Dubner Derek — Sale on 2025-11-13, filed same dayofficer DELL JEFFREY ALAN — Sale on 2025-11-13, filed same dayofficer Reilly James Patrick — Sale on 2025-11-12, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer MacLachlan Daniel — Sale on 2025-11-12, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Dubner Derek — Sale on 2025-11-12, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer DELL JEFFREY ALAN — Sale on 2025-11-12, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Dubner Derek — Sale on 2025-11-12, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer MacLachlan Daniel — Sale on 2025-11-12, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Reilly James Patrick — Sale on 2025-11-12, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer DELL JEFFREY ALAN — Sale on 2025-11-12, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Dubner Derek — Sale on 2025-11-11, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer MacLachlan Daniel — Sale on 2025-11-11, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Reilly James Patrick — Sale on 2025-11-11, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer DELL JEFFREY ALAN — Sale on 2025-11-11, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer MacLachlan Daniel — Sale on 2025-11-10, filed 3 days after the tradedirector Dubner Derek — Sale on 2025-11-10, filed 3 days after the tradeofficer Reilly James Patrick — Sale on 2025-11-10, filed 3 days after the tradeofficer DELL JEFFREY ALAN — Sale on 2025-11-10, filed 3 days after the tradeofficer Reilly James Patrick — Sale on 2025-11-10, filed 3 days after the tradedirector Dubner Derek — Sale on 2025-11-10, filed 3 days after the tradeofficer MacLachlan Daniel — Sale on 2025-11-10, filed 3 days after the tradeofficer DELL JEFFREY ALAN — Sale on 2025-11-10, filed 3 days after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-08-27LIVEK WILLIAM PAULdirectorPurchase2,000 @ $71.49$143K+9.6% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open22,733Form 4 · filed same day
2026-06-01MacLachlan DanielofficerSale6,000 @ $57.62$346K−1.6% of holding+11.9%not yet — horizon still open364,902Form 4 · filed same day
2026-06-01Dubner DerekdirectorSale6,000 @ $57.62$346K−1.1% of holding+11.9%not yet — horizon still open563,273Form 4 · filed same day
2026-06-01Reilly James PatrickofficerSale6,000 @ $57.62$346K−2.5% of holding+11.9%not yet — horizon still open238,351Form 4 · filed same day
2026-06-01Dubner DerekdirectorSale6,000 @ $57.24$343K−1.1% of holding+11.9%not yet — horizon still open557,273Form 4 · filed same day
2026-06-01MacLachlan DanielofficerSale6,000 @ $57.24$343K−1.6% of holding+11.9%not yet — horizon still open358,902Form 4 · filed same day
2026-06-01Reilly James PatrickofficerSale6,000 @ $57.24$343K−2.5% of holding+11.9%not yet — horizon still open232,351Form 4 · filed same day
2026-06-01DELL JEFFREY ALANofficerSale5,000 @ $57.62$288K−3.0% of holding+11.9%not yet — horizon still open160,889Form 4 · filed same day
2026-06-01DELL JEFFREY ALANofficerSale5,000 @ $57.25$286K−3.1% of holding+11.9%not yet — horizon still open155,889Form 4 · filed same day
2025-11-13Dubner DerekdirectorSale1,271 @ $56.73$72K−0.2% of holding−7.9%−24.6%556,000Form 4 · filed same day
2025-11-13MacLachlan DanielofficerSale1,267 @ $56.73$72K−0.4% of holding−7.9%−24.6%358,163Form 4 · filed same day
2025-11-13Reilly James PatrickofficerSale1,266 @ $56.73$72K−0.5% of holding−7.9%−24.6%231,078Form 4 · filed same day
2025-11-13DELL JEFFREY ALANofficerSale835 @ $56.72$47K−0.5% of holding−7.9%−24.6%155,934Form 4 · filed same day
2025-11-13Reilly James PatrickofficerSale445 @ $57.57$26K−0.2% of holding−7.9%−24.6%232,344Form 4 · filed same day
2025-11-13MacLachlan DanielofficerSale444 @ $57.57$26K−0.1% of holding−7.9%−24.6%359,430Form 4 · filed same day
2025-11-13Dubner DerekdirectorSale440 @ $57.57$25K−0.1% of holding−7.9%−24.6%557,271Form 4 · filed same day
2025-11-13DELL JEFFREY ALANofficerSale305 @ $57.58$18K−0.2% of holding−7.9%−24.6%156,769Form 4 · filed same day
2025-11-12Reilly James PatrickofficerSale3,448 @ $57.80$199K−1.5% of holding−6.9%−27.8%232,789Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-11-12MacLachlan DanielofficerSale3,445 @ $57.80$199K−0.9% of holding−6.9%−27.8%359,874Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-11-12Dubner DerekdirectorSale3,439 @ $57.80$199K−0.6% of holding−6.9%−27.8%557,711Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-11-12DELL JEFFREY ALANofficerSale2,302 @ $57.80$133K−1.4% of holding−6.9%−27.8%157,074Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-11-12Dubner DerekdirectorSale660 @ $58.10$38K−0.1% of holding−6.9%−27.8%561,150Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-11-12MacLachlan DanielofficerSale654 @ $58.10$38K−0.2% of holding−6.9%−27.8%363,319Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-11-12Reilly James PatrickofficerSale651 @ $58.10$38K−0.3% of holding−6.9%−27.8%236,237Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-11-12DELL JEFFREY ALANofficerSale431 @ $58.10$25K−0.3% of holding−6.9%−27.8%159,376Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-11-11Dubner DerekdirectorSale2,184 @ $57.81$126K−0.4% of holding−7.6%−31.9%561,810Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-11-11MacLachlan DanielofficerSale2,184 @ $57.81$126K−0.6% of holding−7.6%−31.9%363,973Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-11-11Reilly James PatrickofficerSale2,184 @ $57.81$126K−0.9% of holding−7.6%−31.9%236,888Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-11-11DELL JEFFREY ALANofficerSale1,456 @ $57.81$84K−0.9% of holding−7.6%−31.9%159,807Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-11-10MacLachlan DanielofficerSale6,274 @ $58.03$364K−1.7% of holding−5.1%−30.6%366,157Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-11-10Dubner DerekdirectorSale6,273 @ $58.03$364K−1.1% of holding−5.1%−30.6%563,994Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-11-10Reilly James PatrickofficerSale6,273 @ $58.03$364K−2.6% of holding−5.1%−30.6%239,072Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-11-10DELL JEFFREY ALANofficerSale4,183 @ $58.03$243K−2.5% of holding−5.1%−30.6%161,263Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-11-10Reilly James PatrickofficerSale733 @ $58.81$43K−0.3% of holding−5.1%−30.6%245,345Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-11-10Dubner DerekdirectorSale733 @ $58.81$43K−0.1% of holding−5.1%−30.6%570,267Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-11-10MacLachlan DanielofficerSale732 @ $58.81$43K−0.2% of holding−5.1%−30.6%372,431Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-11-10DELL JEFFREY ALANofficerSale488 @ $58.81$29K−0.3% of holding−5.1%−30.6%165,446Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-05-09Reilly James PatrickofficerSale5,736 @ $46.70$268K−2.2% of holding−8.4%+7.7%259,721Form 4 · filed same day
2025-05-09Dubner DerekdirectorSale5,736 @ $46.70$268K−1.0% of holding−8.4%+7.7%584,643Form 4 · filed same day
2025-05-09MacLachlan DanielofficerSale5,736 @ $46.70$268K−1.5% of holding−8.4%+7.7%387,181Form 4 · filed same day
2025-05-09Dubner DerekdirectorSale4,264 @ $45.55$194K−0.7% of holding−8.4%+7.7%580,379Form 4 · filed same day
2025-05-09Reilly James PatrickofficerSale4,264 @ $45.55$194K−1.6% of holding−8.4%+7.7%255,457Form 4 · filed same day
2025-05-09MacLachlan DanielofficerSale4,264 @ $45.55$194K−1.1% of holding−8.4%+7.7%382,917Form 4 · filed same day
2025-05-09DELL JEFFREY ALANofficerSale2,823 @ $46.70$132K−1.6% of holding−8.4%+7.7%175,145Form 4 · filed same day
2025-05-09DELL JEFFREY ALANofficerSale2,177 @ $45.56$99K−1.2% of holding−8.4%+7.7%172,968Form 4 · filed same day
2025-03-19Rubin Steven DdirectorSale10,000 @ $38.93$389K−6.6% of holding+1.2%+13.7%141,138Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-03-07Stanton Lisa M.directorPurchase1,000 @ $36.12$36K+3.9% of holding+11.0%+28.9%26,815Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

42 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-06-04LIVEK WILLIAM PAULdirectorAward / grant2,08820,733Form 4
2026-06-04LIVEK WILLIAM PAULdirectorAward / grant2,08820,733Form 4
2026-06-04Rubin Steven DdirectorAward / grant2,179147,767Form 4
2026-06-04Strakosch GregdirectorAward / grant2,0887,955Form 4
2026-06-04Stanton Lisa M.directorAward / grant2,17933,444Form 4
2026-06-04Strakosch GregdirectorAward / grant2,0887,955Form 4
2026-06-04Stanton Lisa M.directorAward / grant2,17933,444Form 4
2026-06-04Rubin Steven DdirectorAward / grant2,179147,767Form 4
2026-03-02Strakosch GregdirectorAward / grant1,8575,867Form 4
2026-03-02Strakosch GregdirectorAward / grant1,8575,867Form 4
2025-12-19MacLachlan DanielofficerWithheld for tax5,247351,916Form 4
2025-12-19Dubner DerekdirectorWithheld for tax5,247550,753Form 4
2025-12-19Reilly James PatrickofficerWithheld for tax5,247225,831Form 4
2025-12-19DELL JEFFREY ALANofficerWithheld for tax3,935151,999Form 4
2025-12-19MacLachlan DanielofficerAward / grant18,520370,436Form 4
2025-12-19DELL JEFFREY ALANofficerAward / grant13,890165,889Form 4
2025-12-19LIVEK WILLIAM PAULdirectorAward / grant3,75518,645Form 4
2025-12-19Rubin Steven DdirectorAward / grant4,450145,588Form 4
2025-12-19Reilly James PatrickofficerAward / grant18,520244,351Form 4
2025-12-19MacLachlan DanielofficerAward / grant18,520370,436Form 4
2025-12-19Dubner DerekdirectorAward / grant18,520569,273Form 4
2025-12-19DELL JEFFREY ALANofficerAward / grant13,890165,889Form 4
2025-12-19Stanton Lisa M.directorAward / grant4,45031,265Form 4
2025-12-19Strakosch GregdirectorAward / grant2,1304,010Form 4
2025-12-19Reilly James PatrickofficerAward / grant18,520244,351Form 4
2025-12-19Dubner DerekdirectorAward / grant18,520569,273Form 4
2025-12-19Rubin Steven DdirectorAward / grant4,450145,588Form 4
2025-12-19LIVEK WILLIAM PAULdirectorAward / grant3,75518,645Form 4
2025-12-19Stanton Lisa M.directorAward / grant4,45031,265Form 4
2025-12-19Strakosch GregdirectorAward / grant2,1304,010Form 4
2025-12-03MacLachlan DanielofficerGift1,000357,163Form 4
2025-12-03MacLachlan DanielofficerGift1,000357,163Form 4
2025-11-03Reilly James PatrickofficerWithheld for tax9,379246,078Form 4
2025-11-03Dubner DerekdirectorWithheld for tax9,379571,000Form 4
2025-11-03MacLachlan DanielofficerWithheld for tax9,379373,163Form 4
2025-11-03DELL JEFFREY ALANofficerWithheld for tax7,034165,934Form 4
2025-06-30MacLachlan DanielofficerGift375382,542Form 4
2025-03-04Strakosch GregdirectorAward / grant1,8801,880Form 4
2025-03-04LIVEK WILLIAM PAULdirectorAward / grant1,98014,890Form 4
2025-03-04Stanton Lisa M.directorAward / grant86025,815Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.