Issued 2026-09-25 at $24.97 · now $24.97 (2026-09-25, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-25 close, RCUS has typically landed between $19.54 and $32.29 — a range of −21.7% to +29.3% from the issuance price $24.97.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
2,123 overlapping 1 month windows · 2018-03-15 – 2026-08-26 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Base rate up 53.7% (90% CI 51.5–55.9%, ≈1,391 obs). Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-25 issuance close ($24.97) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-26, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where RCUS has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-25 close of $24.97 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $24.97 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $25.03 (+0.2%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $22.23–$27.83
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $19.54–$32.29
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 2,123 windows spanning 2018-03-15 to 2026-09-25. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2022-12-05 | −45.3% | −45.3% | +0.0% |
| 2022-04-11 | −45.0% | −45.0% | +2.0% |
| 2022-12-07 | −44.3% | −44.3% | +6.9% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2020-03-19 | +196.1% | +0.0% | +200.8% |
| 2020-03-18 | +191.8% | −3.0% | +191.8% |
| 2020-03-20 | +180.2% | +0.0% | +186.5% |
2,123 overlapping windows · 2018-03-15 – 2026-09-25 · not cherry-picked
Pending catalysts
- January 2027 — Trial primary completion: Phase 2 primary completion: A Safety and Efficacy Study of Treatment Combinations With and Without Chemotherapy in Adult Participants With Advanced Upper Gastrointestinal Tract Malignancies (source, as of 2026-08-14)
- May 2027 — Trial primary completion: Phase 2 primary completion: Study Evaluating Effectiveness and Safety of Zimberelimab and Domvanalimab in Lung Cancer (source, as of 2026-08-14)
- April 2028 — Trial primary completion: Phase 3 primary completion: Study of Casdatifan and Cabozantinib Versus Placebo and Cabozantinib in Patients With Advanced Clear Cell Renal Cell Carcinoma (source, as of 2026-08-14)
- 2030-11-30 — Trial primary completion: Phase 3 primary completion: Study of Quemliclustat and Chemotherapy Versus Placebo and Chemotherapy in Patients With Metastatic Pancreatic Ductal Adenocarcinoma (source, as of 2026-08-14)
Public, scheduled events — dated attention, not a prediction of the outcome. See the FDA catalysts page for the historical base rate.
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~9 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
25%
−6.2%
n=8
Feb
63%
+12.9%
n=8
Mar
38%
−7.7%
n=8
Apr
44%
+8.0%
n=9
May
44%
−2.5%
n=9
Jun
44%
+0.7%
n=9
Jul
44%
+0.4%
n=9
Aug
67%
+5.9%
n=9
Sep
44%
+0.5%
n=9
Oct
38%
+1.4%
n=8
Nov
88%
+17.8%
n=8
Dec
25%
−2.8%
n=8
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-21 | Azoy Alexander | officer | Sale | 2,827 @ $30.00 | $85K | −6.7% of holding | −12.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 39,581 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-10 | Jaen Juan C. | officer | Sale | 19,799 @ $28.61 | $566K | −2.4% of holding | −3.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 822,508 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-10 | Jaen Juan C. | officer | Sale | 268 @ $29.40 | $8K | −0.0% of holding | −3.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 822,240 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-09 | Jaen Juan C. | officer | Sale | 48,502 @ $30.05 | $1.5M | −5.4% of holding | −7.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 842,307 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-24 | Jaen Juan C. | officer | Sale | 6,431 @ $29.66 | $191K | −0.7% of holding | −2.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 890,809 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-06-23 | Jaen Juan C. | officer | Sale | 14,067 @ $27.69 | $389K | −1.5% of holding | +4.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 898,937 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-23 | Jaen Juan C. | officer | Sale | 1,697 @ $28.06 | $48K | −0.2% of holding | +4.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 897,240 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-22 | Jaen Juan C. | officer | Sale | 9,236 @ $27.03 | $250K | −1.0% of holding | +9.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 913,004 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-01 | Azoy Alexander | officer | Sale | 2,562 @ $25.77 | $66K | −6.1% of holding | +14.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 39,581 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-05-11 | Goeltz II Robert C. | officer | Sale | 7,763 @ $25.63 | $199K | −8.4% of holding | −9.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 84,161 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-01-05 | Jaen Juan C. | officer | Sale | 29,670 @ $21.34 | $633K | −3.1% of holding | −3.4% | +30.0% | 924,393 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-05 | Jaen Juan C. | officer | Sale | 2,053 @ $22.34 | $46K | −0.2% of holding | −3.4% | +30.0% | 922,340 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-05 | Jaen Juan C. | officer | Sale | 100 @ $23.20 | $2K | −0.0% of holding | −3.4% | +30.0% | 922,240 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-31 | Goeltz II Robert C. | officer | Sale | 6,552 @ $23.38 | $153K | −8.8% of holding | −11.1% | +15.1% | 67,924 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-18 | Azoy Alexander | officer | Sale | 4,343 @ $22.25 | $97K | −19.0% of holding | +2.7% | +18.8% | 18,531 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-12-17 | ROSEN TERRY J | director | Sale | 25,744 @ $22.16 | $570K | −1.2% of holding | −2.7% | +10.4% | 2,194,809 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-17 | Jarrett Jennifer | director | Sale | 9,983 @ $22.16 | $221K | −4.9% of holding | −2.7% | +10.4% | 193,024 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-17 | Jaen Juan C. | officer | Sale | 9,983 @ $22.16 | $221K | −2.8% of holding | −2.7% | +10.4% | 346,012 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-17 | Tang Carolyn C. | officer | Sale | 6,810 @ $22.16 | $151K | −5.2% of holding | −2.7% | +10.4% | 124,734 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-17 | Goeltz II Robert C. | officer | Sale | 5,960 @ $22.16 | $132K | −7.4% of holding | −2.7% | +10.4% | 74,476 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-17 | Markus Richard | officer | Sale | 4,494 @ $22.16 | $100K | −6.4% of holding | −2.7% | +10.4% | 65,647 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-17 | Azoy Alexander | officer | Sale | 2,113 @ $22.16 | $47K | −8.5% of holding | −2.7% | +10.4% | 22,874 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-16 | ROSEN TERRY J | director | Sale | 28,947 @ $21.88 | $633K | −1.3% of holding | −4.0% | −1.4% | 2,220,553 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-16 | Jaen Juan C. | officer | Sale | 11,225 @ $21.88 | $246K | −3.1% of holding | −4.0% | −1.4% | 355,995 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-16 | Jarrett Jennifer | director | Sale | 11,225 @ $21.88 | $246K | −5.2% of holding | −4.0% | −1.4% | 203,007 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-16 | Tang Carolyn C. | officer | Sale | 7,658 @ $21.88 | $168K | −5.5% of holding | −4.0% | −1.4% | 131,544 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-16 | Goeltz II Robert C. | officer | Sale | 6,702 @ $21.88 | $147K | −7.7% of holding | −4.0% | −1.4% | 80,436 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-16 | Markus Richard | officer | Sale | 5,052 @ $21.88 | $111K | −6.7% of holding | −4.0% | −1.4% | 70,141 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-16 | Azoy Alexander | officer | Sale | 2,376 @ $21.88 | $52K | −8.7% of holding | −4.0% | −1.4% | 24,987 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-04 | Jaen Juan C. | officer | Sale | 82,997 @ $24.71 | $2.1M | −8.0% of holding | −15.5% | −16.3% | 954,063 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-26 | Goeltz II Robert C. | officer | Sale | 5,000 @ $25.00 | $125K | −5.4% of holding | −10.2% | −11.8% | 87,138 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-11-26 | Azoy Alexander | officer | Sale | 1,900 @ $26.00 | $49K | −6.5% of holding | −10.2% | −11.8% | 27,363 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-18 | Jaen Juan C. | officer | Sale | 5,050 @ $19.75 | $100K | −0.5% of holding | +6.4% | +5.1% | 1,037,060 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-17 | Jaen Juan C. | officer | Sale | 37,114 @ $20.23 | $751K | −3.4% of holding | +10.6% | +6.8% | 1,049,946 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-17 | Jaen Juan C. | officer | Sale | 7,836 @ $20.71 | $162K | −0.7% of holding | +10.6% | +6.8% | 1,042,110 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-07 | Jarrett Jennifer | director | Sale | 50,291 @ $18.97 | $954K | −19.0% of holding | +28.0% | +18.3% | 214,232 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-30 | Jaen Juan C. | officer | Sale | 4,314 @ $20.32 | $88K | −0.4% of holding | +29.2% | +22.8% | 1,087,060 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-29 | Jaen Juan C. | officer | Sale | 47,675 @ $20.49 | $977K | −4.1% of holding | +29.2% | +21.1% | 1,121,539 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-10-29 | Jaen Juan C. | officer | Sale | 29,365 @ $21.53 | $632K | −2.6% of holding | +29.2% | +21.1% | 1,092,174 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-10-29 | Jaen Juan C. | officer | Sale | 800 @ $22.04 | $18K | −0.1% of holding | +29.2% | +21.1% | 1,091,374 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-10-28 | Jaen Juan C. | officer | Sale | 19,019 @ $20.19 | $384K | −1.6% of holding | +29.6% | +23.1% | 1,169,214 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-28 | Goeltz II Robert C. | officer | Sale | 5,000 @ $20.00 | $100K | −5.1% of holding | +29.6% | +23.1% | 92,138 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-10-08 | Jarrett Jennifer | director | Sale | 37,792 @ $15.05 | $569K | −15.0% of holding | +30.4% | +46.9% | 214,232 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-10-06 | Jarrett Jennifer | director | Sale | 12,500 @ $14.54 | $182K | −5.5% of holding | +36.4% | +55.2% | 214,232 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-29 | Azoy Alexander | officer | Sale | 2,831 @ $13.00 | $37K | −9.4% of holding | +45.7% | +63.6% | 27,363 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-05 | Azoy Alexander | officer | Sale | 1,579 @ $11.88 | $19K | −5.0% of holding | +14.7% | +86.8% | 30,194 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-02-27 | ROSEN TERRY J | director | Purchase | 19,800 @ $10.18 | $201K | +0.8% of holding | −12.6% | −4.2% | 2,554,160 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-02-27 | KANEKO YASUNORI | director | Purchase | 20,000 @ $10.06 | $201K | +238.1% of holding | −12.6% | −4.2% | 28,400 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-02-18 | GILEAD SCIENCES, INC. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 1,363,636 @ $11.00 | $15.0M | +4.5% of holding | −9.8% | −13.5% | 31,424,760 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2024-12-31 | Goeltz II Robert C. | officer | Sale | 3,594 @ $15.00 | $54K | −5.6% of holding | −13.3% | −51.3% | 60,138 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2024-12-02 | Azoy Alexander | officer | Sale | 201 @ $15.32 | $3K | −1.0% of holding | −2.3% | −38.5% | 19,070 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2024-08-13 | Azoy Alexander | officer | Sale | 1,357 @ $14.97 | $20K | −6.6% of holding | +8.0% | −32.0% | 19,070 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2024-03-27 | Jarrett Jennifer | director | Sale | 11,551 @ $17.55 | $203K | −5.1% of holding | −11.8% | −25.6% | 215,253 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2024-03-18 | Jarrett Jennifer | director | Sale | 12,153 @ $17.84 | $217K | −5.1% of holding | −11.4% | −13.0% | 228,100 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2024-03-18 | Jarrett Jennifer | director | Sale | 1,296 @ $18.62 | $24K | −0.6% of holding | −11.4% | −13.0% | 226,804 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2024-02-27 | Jarrett Jennifer | director | Sale | 34,070 @ $20.11 | $685K | −12.4% of holding | −13.3% | −24.8% | 240,253 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2024-02-27 | Jaen Juan C. | officer | Sale | 23,132 @ $20.10 | $465K | −1.9% of holding | −13.3% | −24.8% | 1,188,233 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2024-02-26 | Jarrett Jennifer | director | Sale | 24,555 @ $20.07 | $493K | −8.2% of holding | −18.2% | −20.3% | 274,323 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2024-02-26 | Jaen Juan C. | officer | Sale | 3,900 @ $20.06 | $78K | −0.3% of holding | −18.2% | −20.3% | 1,211,365 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
101 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-21 | Azoy Alexander | officer | Option exercise | 2,827 | 42,408 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-21 | Azoy Alexander | officer | Option exercise | 2,827 | 3,073 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-11 | Tang Carolyn C. | officer | Option exercise | 34,090 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-11 | Tang Carolyn C. | officer | Option exercise | 34,090 | 184,607 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-11 | Ribas Antoni | director | Award / grant | 5,700 | 44,300 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-11 | Ribas Antoni | director | Award / grant | 16,900 | 16,900 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-11 | Machado Patrick | director | Award / grant | 16,900 | 16,900 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-11 | PERLMAN ANDREW J | director | Award / grant | 5,700 | 48,325 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-11 | PERLMAN ANDREW J | director | Award / grant | 16,900 | 16,900 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-11 | FALBERG KATHRYN E | director | Award / grant | 5,700 | 44,300 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-11 | FALBERG KATHRYN E | director | Award / grant | 16,900 | 16,900 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-11 | KANEKO YASUNORI | director | Award / grant | 5,700 | 25,700 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-11 | KANEKO YASUNORI | director | Award / grant | 16,900 | 16,900 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-11 | Machado Patrick | director | Award / grant | 5,700 | 44,300 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-11 | Lacey David L. | director | Award / grant | 5,700 | 76,652 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-11 | Lacey David L. | director | Award / grant | 16,900 | 16,900 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-11 | Lambert Nicole | director | Award / grant | 5,700 | 43,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-11 | Lambert Nicole | director | Award / grant | 16,900 | 16,900 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-23 | Jaen Juan C. | officer | Award / grant | 126,000 | 126,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-23 | Jaen Juan C. | officer | Award / grant | 31,000 | 377,012 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-23 | Jarrett Jennifer | director | Award / grant | 31,000 | 224,024 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-23 | Jarrett Jennifer | director | Award / grant | 126,000 | 126,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-23 | ROSEN TERRY J | director | Award / grant | 79,000 | 2,236,409 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-23 | ROSEN TERRY J | director | Award / grant | 315,000 | 315,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-23 | Goeltz II Robert C. | officer | Award / grant | 24,000 | 91,924 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-23 | Goeltz II Robert C. | officer | Award / grant | 96,000 | 96,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-23 | Azoy Alexander | officer | Award / grant | 21,050 | 39,581 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-23 | Azoy Alexander | officer | Award / grant | 14,050 | 14,050 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-23 | Tang Carolyn C. | officer | Award / grant | 24,000 | 148,734 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-23 | Tang Carolyn C. | officer | Award / grant | 96,000 | 96,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-23 | Markus Richard | officer | Award / grant | 24,000 | 89,647 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-23 | Markus Richard | officer | Award / grant | 96,000 | 96,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-08 | ROSEN TERRY J | director | Gift | 35,000 | 2,157,409 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-30 | ROSEN TERRY J | director | Gift | 2,400 | 2,192,409 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-16 | Ribas Antoni | director | Gift | 5,050 | 38,600 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-26 | Azoy Alexander | officer | Option exercise | 1,900 | 29,263 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-26 | Azoy Alexander | officer | Option exercise | 1,900 | 9,500 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-07 | Jarrett Jennifer | director | Option exercise | 50,291 | 264,523 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-07 | Jarrett Jennifer | director | Option exercise | 50,291 | 80,583 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-08 | Jarrett Jennifer | director | Option exercise | 37,792 | 252,024 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.