Issued 2026-09-16 at $10.98 · now $10.98 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, QTTB has typically landed between $7.12 and $17.51 — a range of −35.2% to +59.4% from the issuance price $10.98.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
2,103 overlapping 1 month windows · 2018-03-28 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($10.98) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where QTTB has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $10.98 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $10.98 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $10.85 (-1.2%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $8.81–$12.88
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $7.12–$17.51
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2024-11-12 | −91.5% | −91.5% | +0.0% |
| 2024-11-13 | −91.2% | −91.2% | +0.0% |
| 2024-11-11 | −90.6% | −90.6% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2026-05-04 | +177.8% | +0.0% | +177.8% |
| 2024-06-25 | +159.6% | +0.0% | +159.6% |
| 2026-05-05 | +155.1% | +0.0% | +172.4% |
2,103 overlapping windows · 2018-03-28 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~9 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-25 | Morrison Jodie Pope | director | Sale | 9,845 @ $16.56 | $163K | −2.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 343,259 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-25 | Kalowski Lee | officer | Sale | 3,972 @ $16.56 | $66K | −2.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 138,471 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-25 | Violette Shelia M. | officer | Sale | 2,798 @ $16.56 | $46K | −2.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 127,771 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-28 | ORBIMED ADVISORS LLC | director | Purchase | 1,250,000 @ $8.00 | $10.0M | +55.5% of holding | +38.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 3,502,987 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-28 | Xu Diyong | director | Purchase | 1,250,000 @ $8.00 | $10.0M | +55.5% of holding | +38.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 3,502,987 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-28 | Xu Diyong | director | Purchase | 625,000 @ $8.00 | $5.0M | ownership Δ n/a | +38.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 625,000 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-28 | ORBIMED ADVISORS LLC | director | Purchase | 625,000 @ $8.00 | $5.0M | ownership Δ n/a | +38.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 625,000 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-25 | Morrison Jodie Pope | director | Sale | 9,896 @ $4.51 | $45K | −10.0% of holding | +57.6% | +206.2% | 89,104 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-25 | Kalowski Lee | officer | Sale | 3,995 @ $4.51 | $18K | −10.0% of holding | +57.6% | +206.2% | 35,943 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-25 | Violette Shelia M. | officer | Sale | 2,815 @ $4.51 | $13K | −4.8% of holding | +57.6% | +206.2% | 55,569 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-02 | Morrison Jodie Pope | director | Sale | 22,506 @ $3.46 | $78K | −18.5% of holding | +0.3% | +275.6% | 99,000 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-02 | Kalowski Lee | officer | Sale | 9,072 @ $3.46 | $31K | −18.5% of holding | +0.3% | +275.6% | 39,938 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-26 | Morrison Jodie Pope | director | Sale | 10,494 @ $1.80 | $19K | −8.0% of holding | +1.0% | +143.6% | 121,506 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-26 | Kalowski Lee | officer | Sale | 4,240 @ $1.80 | $8K | −8.0% of holding | +1.0% | +143.6% | 49,010 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-26 | Violette Shelia M. | officer | Sale | 2,990 @ $1.80 | $5K | −4.9% of holding | +1.0% | +143.6% | 58,384 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
100 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-16 | Morrison Jodie Pope | director | Award / grant | 132,000 | 353,104 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-16 | Violette Shelia M. | officer | Award / grant | 37,500 | 130,569 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-16 | Kalowski Lee | officer | Award / grant | 53,250 | 142,443 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-30 | Manke Isaac | director | Option exercise | 53,521 | 53,521 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-30 | Manke Isaac | director | Option exercise | 53,521 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-12 | Manke Isaac | director | Award / grant | 9,810 | 9,810 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-12 | Xu Diyong | director | Award / grant | 9,810 | 9,810 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-12 | Thistle Mary | director | Award / grant | 9,810 | 9,810 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-12 | TZIANABOS ARTHUR | director | Award / grant | 9,810 | 9,810 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-12 | LAPORTE KATHLEEN | director | Award / grant | 9,810 | 9,810 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-12 | Lundberg Sven Ante | director | Award / grant | 9,810 | 9,810 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-12 | GRAYZEL DAVID S. | director | Award / grant | 9,810 | 9,810 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-12 | Iwicki Mark T | director | Award / grant | 9,810 | 9,810 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-24 | Morrison Jodie Pope | director | Award / grant | 132,000 | 221,104 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-24 | Violette Shelia M. | officer | Award / grant | 37,500 | 93,069 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-24 | Kalowski Lee | officer | Award / grant | 53,250 | 89,193 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-15 | LAPORTE KATHLEEN | director | Award / grant | 23,272 | 23,272 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-15 | Lundberg Sven Ante | director | Award / grant | 20,363 | 20,363 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-15 | GRAYZEL DAVID S. | director | Award / grant | 16,363 | 16,363 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-23 | Iwicki Mark T | director | Award / grant | 53,521 | 53,521 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-23 | LAPORTE KATHLEEN | director | Award / grant | 53,521 | 53,521 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-23 | TZIANABOS ARTHUR | director | Award / grant | 53,521 | 53,521 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-23 | Thistle Mary | director | Award / grant | 53,521 | 53,521 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-23 | Lundberg Sven Ante | director | Award / grant | 53,521 | 53,521 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-23 | Manke Isaac | director | Award / grant | 53,521 | 53,521 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-23 | Xu Diyong | director | Award / grant | 53,521 | 53,521 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-24 | TZIANABOS ARTHUR | director | Award / grant | 12,767 | 12,767 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-24 | Campagna Jason | officer | Award / grant | 37,500 | 37,500 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-24 | Campagna Jason | officer | Award / grant | 87,738 | 87,738 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-24 | Campagna Jason | officer | Disposition | 17,951 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-24 | Campagna Jason | officer | Disposition | 87,738 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-24 | Campagna Jason | officer | Award / grant | 17,951 | 17,951 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-24 | Campagna Jason | officer | Disposition | 70,687 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-24 | Campagna Jason | officer | Award / grant | 70,687 | 70,687 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-24 | GRAYZEL DAVID S. | director | Disposition | 12,767 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-24 | GRAYZEL DAVID S. | director | Award / grant | 12,767 | 12,767 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-24 | GRAYZEL DAVID S. | director | Disposition | 2,569 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-24 | GRAYZEL DAVID S. | director | Award / grant | 2,569 | 2,569 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-24 | GRAYZEL DAVID S. | director | Disposition | 18,595 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-24 | GRAYZEL DAVID S. | director | Award / grant | 18,595 | 18,595 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.