PSFE · TickerCove

PSFEPaysafe LimitedTechnology · Information Technology Servicesas of 2026-09-16

Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $6.26 · now $6.26 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, PSFE has typically landed between $4.56 and $7.95 — a range of −27.1% to +27.0% from the issuance price $6.26.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.

Actual close
Typical path (median)
Middle 50% of outcomes
90% range

1,469 overlapping 1 month windows · 2020-10-09 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($6.26) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

52-week range$6.26 · 3% of range

$6.01 low$14.08 high

Trailing 52 weeks to 2026-09-16 — factual context, not a signal.

Base rate up · monthiClimatology base rate that a US-listed stock rises over a month, with its 90% CI and ≈1,408 effective observations. Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.

53.9%

90% CI 51.7%–56.1%

Distribution · month iiThe price-anchored range: typical move (median), and the p90 downside/upside — 90% of similar periods stayed inside these. Ranges, not a prediction of direction.

−3.5%

typical move · IQR 23.1%

−27.1%worst (p90)+27.0%best (p90)

Insider convictioniOpen-market common-stock purchases by company insiders in the last 90 days (grants and option exercises excluded). Historical tendency, not advice — detail below.

conviction buys

0 open-market sales

Congress disclosuresiRecent disclosed congressional trades for this company. Purchase clusters (≥2 members buying within 90 days) historically preceded a modestly higher forward return (+32 bp/mo in 2022–2026, +45 bp/mo in 2015–2021) — a descriptive tendency, not a forecast input. Detail below.

0 buys · 0 sells · 0 members

cluster tilt persisted, ~halved after 2021

Where PSFE has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $6.26 — the range is history, not a prediction.

now $6.26 (+0.0%)
typical $6.04 (-3.5%)
middle 50% $5.32–$6.77
90% range $4.56–$7.95

Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 1,469 windows spanning 2020-10-09 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.

Start	Return	Max drop	Max rise
3 worst
2021-11-01	−56.8%	−56.8%	+0.0%
2021-11-03	−56.3%	−56.3%	+2.7%
2021-10-29	−53.5%	−53.5%	+2.1%
3 best
2022-12-19	+79.7%	+0.0%	+79.7%
2022-12-16	+72.9%	−2.3%	+72.9%
2022-12-27	+70.1%	+0.0%	+72.3%

1,469 overlapping windows · 2020-10-09 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month i

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~6 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.

Jan

67%

+10.2%

n=6

Feb

17%

−4.8%

n=6

Mar

50%

−3.4%

n=6

Apr

33%

−2.1%

n=6

May

17%

−9.8%

n=6

Jun

50%

−3.4%

n=6

Jul

67%

+5.8%

n=6

Aug

50%

−4.7%

n=6

Sep

17%

−7.4%

n=6

Oct

40%

−6.5%

n=5

Nov

33%

−13.4%

n=6

Dec

67%

+8.5%

n=6

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares @ price	Value	Ownership Δ	vs S&P 1m	vs S&P 6m	Owned after	Filing
2026-08-14	Swales Richard	officer	Sale	10,000 @ $6.58	$66K	−22.5% of holding	−2.1%	not yet — horizon still open	34,456	Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-05-15	Swales Richard	officer	Sale	10,000 @ $7.69	$77K	−18.4% of holding	−8.3%	not yet — horizon still open	44,456	Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-03-19	Swales Richard	officer	Sale	18,849 @ $6.87	$129K	−43.7% of holding	+24.8%	not yet — horizon still open	24,291	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

62 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares	Owned after	Filing
2026-09-03	Crawford John Harland	officer	Withheld for tax	7,873	155,478	Form 4
2026-09-03	Crawford John Harland	officer	Option exercise	32,331	508,029	Form 4
2026-09-03	Crawford John Harland	officer	Option exercise	32,331	163,351	Form 4
2026-09-03	Crawford John Harland	officer	Option exercise	32,331	163,351	Form 4
2026-09-03	Crawford John Harland	officer	Option exercise	32,331	163,351	Form 4
2026-09-03	Crawford John Harland	officer	Option exercise	32,331	163,351	Form 4
2026-05-26	Henson Daniel S	director	Award / grant	46,297	140,134	Form 4
2026-05-26	Heiss Marianne	director	Award / grant	22,157	39,021	Form 4
2026-05-26	KEELEY RUPERT	director	Award / grant	22,157	22,157	Form 4
2026-05-26	Brooker Mark	director	Award / grant	22,157	43,823	Form 4
2026-05-26	Jabbour Anthony M	director	Award / grant	22,157	67,724	Form 4
2026-05-26	Kollmann Dagmar	director	Award / grant	22,157	63,614	Form 4
2026-05-26	Timpone Karin Mullane	director	Award / grant	22,157	22,157	Form 4
2026-05-26	Caride Ignacio	director	Award / grant	22,157	22,157	Form 4
2026-05-26	Thompson Peter Benjamin	director	Award / grant	22,157	22,157	Form 4
2026-05-26	Henson Daniel S	director	Withheld for tax	17,056	123,078	Form 4
2026-05-26	KEELEY RUPERT	director	Withheld for tax	10,414	11,743	Form 4
2026-05-26	Brooker Mark	director	Withheld for tax	10,414	33,409	Form 4
2026-05-26	Caride Ignacio	director	Withheld for tax	10,040	12,117	Form 4
2026-05-26	Timpone Karin Mullane	director	Withheld for tax	9,708	12,449	Form 4
2026-05-26	Thompson Peter Benjamin	director	Withheld for tax	9,708	12,449	Form 4
2026-05-26	Jabbour Anthony M	director	Withheld for tax	9,080	58,644	Form 4
2026-05-26	Heiss Marianne	director	Withheld for tax	1,241	37,780	Form 4
2026-05-26	Kollmann Dagmar	director	Withheld for tax	355	63,259	Form 4
2026-04-01	LOWTHERS BRUCE F JR	director	Withheld for tax	163,006	801,744	Form 4
2026-04-01	Aston Roy	officer	Withheld for tax	63,584	215,350	Form 4
2026-04-01	Swales Richard	officer	Withheld for tax	46,886	67,226	Form 4
2026-04-01	Wiseman Elliott	officer	Withheld for tax	41,637	190,779	Form 4
2026-04-01	Gatto Robert	officer	Withheld for tax	23,640	242,582	Form 4
2026-04-01	Lee Chi Eun	officer	Withheld for tax	15,291	58,080	Form 4
2026-04-01	Swales Richard	officer	Withheld for tax	12,680	54,546	Form 4
2026-04-01	Aston Roy	officer	Withheld for tax	12,106	278,934	Form 4
2026-04-01	Gatto Robert	officer	Withheld for tax	9,850	227,738	Form 4
2026-04-01	Wiseman Elliott	officer	Withheld for tax	9,760	181,019	Form 4
2026-04-01	Crawford John Harland	officer	Withheld for tax	10,099	135,811	Form 4
2026-04-01	Crawford John Harland	officer	Withheld for tax	5,719	130,092	Form 4
2026-04-01	Lee Chi Eun	officer	Withheld for tax	5,314	52,766	Form 4
2026-04-01	Gatto Robert	officer	Withheld for tax	4,994	237,588	Form 4
2026-04-01	Nahlous Nicole Yvette	officer	Withheld for tax	4,377	33,735	Form 4
2026-04-01	LOWTHERS BRUCE F JR	director	Option exercise	438,036	2,348,692	Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Resolves in i

28d remaining

2026-09-173% elapsed2026-10-15

Logged immutably 2026-09-17; scored automatically on 2026-10-15 — no edits, ever.

Earnings & context analysis

These panels are being prepared. They are generated by multiple language models, checked, and stored before display — never written live for a page view. Until a model panel has been generated and reviewed for a company, nothing is shown here, honestly, rather than a placeholder.

Calibration i

Every forecast is logged when made and scored when the month is up. The record is shown from the day it starts — young and honest.

How scoring works →

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

Reported insider & political trades

Congressional disclosures

Seasonality · by month i