PII · TickerCove

PIIPolaris Inc.Consumer Cyclical · Auto - Recreational Vehiclesas of 2026-09-16

Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $55.28 · now $55.28 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, PII has typically landed between $46.84 and $64.16 — a range of −15.3% to +16.1% from the issuance price $55.28.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.

Actual close
Typical path (median)
Middle 50% of outcomes
90% range

5,003 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($55.28) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

52-week range$55.28 · 29% of range

$47.42 low$74.7 high

Trailing 52 weeks to 2026-09-16 — factual context, not a signal.

Base rate up · monthiClimatology base rate that a US-listed stock rises over a month, with its 90% CI and ≈1,408 effective observations. Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.

53.9%

90% CI 51.7%–56.1%

Distribution · month iiThe price-anchored range: typical move (median), and the p90 downside/upside — 90% of similar periods stayed inside these. Ranges, not a prediction of direction.

−0.5%

typical move · IQR 13.6%

−15.3%worst (p90)+16.1%best (p90)

Insider convictioniOpen-market common-stock purchases by company insiders in the last 90 days (grants and option exercises excluded). Historical tendency, not advice — detail below.

conviction buys

0 open-market sales

Congress disclosuresiRecent disclosed congressional trades for this company. Purchase clusters (≥2 members buying within 90 days) historically preceded a modestly higher forward return (+32 bp/mo in 2022–2026, +45 bp/mo in 2015–2021) — a descriptive tendency, not a forecast input. Detail below.

0 buys · 0 sells · 0 members

cluster tilt persisted, ~halved after 2021

Where PII has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $55.28 — the range is history, not a prediction.

now $55.28 (+0.0%)
typical $55.02 (-0.5%)
middle 50% $51.26–$58.78
90% range $46.84–$64.16

Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 5,003 windows spanning 2006-09-26 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.

Start	Return	Max drop	Max rise
3 worst
2020-03-05	−54.7%	−54.7%	+0.0%
2020-02-21	−54.0%	−54.0%	+1.9%
2020-03-04	−51.6%	−54.8%	+0.0%
3 best
2020-04-03	+77.2%	+0.0%	+92.5%
2009-03-06	+71.7%	−3.7%	+72.6%
2009-03-05	+67.8%	−6.3%	+67.8%

5,003 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month i

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.

Jan

50%

−1.7%

n=20

Feb

65%

+0.7%

n=20

Mar

60%

+1.0%

n=20

Apr

55%

+7.5%

n=20

May

50%

+2.3%

n=20

Jun

55%

+1.0%

n=20

Jul

70%

+7.2%

n=20

Aug

30%

−3.3%

n=20

Sep

45%

−0.2%

n=20

Oct

60%

+1.3%

n=20

Nov

60%

+1.2%

n=20

Dec

35%

−2.1%

n=20

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares @ price	Value	Ownership Δ	vs S&P 1m	vs S&P 6m	Owned after	Filing
2026-02-12	Mack Robert Paul	officer	Sale	3,963 @ $67.08	$266K	−4.5% of holding	−18.6%	−7.2%	84,269	Form 4 · filed same day
2026-02-12	Mack Robert Paul	officer	Sale	3,823 @ $66.57	$254K	−4.5% of holding	−18.6%	−7.2%	80,446	Form 4 · filed same day
2026-02-11	Speetzen Michael T	director	Sale	22,894 @ $66.98	$1.5M	−14.4% of holding	−19.3%	−8.0%	136,362	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-11	Speetzen Michael T	director	Sale	12,192 @ $66.54	$811K	−7.1% of holding	−19.3%	−8.0%	159,256	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-11	Duke Benjamin D	officer	Sale	9,794 @ $66.80	$654K	−24.5% of holding	−19.3%	−8.0%	30,242	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-11	Duke Benjamin D	officer	Sale	296 @ $67.40	$20K	−0.7% of holding	−19.3%	−8.0%	40,036	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-03	Williams James P	officer	Sale	5,243 @ $67.17	$352K	−9.7% of holding	−16.7%	−1.2%	48,645	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-12-05	Williams James P	officer	Sale	4,554 @ $67.53	$308K	−9.4% of holding	+1.8%	−2.9%	43,878	Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

159 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares	Owned after	Filing
2026-09-01	Mack Robert Paul	officer	Option exercise	23	80,515	Form 4
2026-09-01	Mack Robert Paul	officer	Option exercise	23	80,515	Form 4
2026-09-01	Mack Robert Paul	officer	Option exercise	23	2,707	Form 4
2026-09-01	Mack Robert Paul	officer	Option exercise	23	80,515	Form 4
2026-09-01	Mack Robert Paul	officer	Option exercise	23	2,707	Form 4
2026-09-01	Mack Robert Paul	officer	Option exercise	23	2,707	Form 4
2026-09-01	Mack Robert Paul	officer	Option exercise	23	80,515	Form 4
2026-09-01	Mack Robert Paul	officer	Option exercise	23	2,707	Form 4
2026-07-01	Semach Dustin J.	director	Award / grant	579	579	Form 4
2026-07-01	Bilicic George W	director	Award / grant	560	38,077	Form 4
2026-07-01	KESSLER BERND F	director	Award / grant	531	62,848	Form 4
2026-07-01	Shotwell Gwynne	director	Award / grant	492	29,486	Form 4
2026-07-01	Hendrickson Gary E	director	Award / grant	492	60,221	Form 4
2026-07-01	Henricks Gwenne A.	director	Award / grant	492	40,790	Form 4
2026-06-01	Mack Robert Paul	officer	Option exercise	23	80,492	Form 4
2026-06-01	Mack Robert Paul	officer	Option exercise	23	2,730	Form 4
2026-06-01	Mack Robert Paul	officer	Option exercise	23	80,492	Form 4
2026-06-01	Mack Robert Paul	officer	Option exercise	23	2,730	Form 4
2026-05-28	Williams James P	officer	Discretionary	34,104	0	Form 4
2026-05-28	Williams James P	officer	Discretionary	34,104	0	Form 4
2026-05-11	Winings Matthew S	officer	Withheld for tax	438	26,647	Form 4
2026-04-30	Kingsley Lawrence D	director	Award / grant	2,641	38,268	Form 4
2026-04-30	Hendrickson Gary E	director	Award / grant	2,641	59,203	Form 4
2026-04-30	Henricks Gwenne A.	director	Award / grant	2,641	39,922	Form 4
2026-04-30	Jackson Darryl R.	director	Award / grant	2,641	12,424	Form 4
2026-04-30	KESSLER BERND F	director	Award / grant	2,641	61,718	Form 4
2026-04-30	Shotwell Gwynne	director	Award / grant	2,641	28,715	Form 4
2026-04-30	WIEHOFF JOHN	director	Award / grant	2,641	90,326	Form 4
2026-04-30	Bilicic George W	director	Award / grant	2,641	37,195	Form 4
2026-04-01	Hendrickson Gary E	director	Award / grant	651	56,562	Form 4
2026-04-01	Bilicic George W	director	Award / grant	640	34,554	Form 4
2026-04-01	KESSLER BERND F	director	Award / grant	606	59,077	Form 4
2026-04-01	Henricks Gwenne A.	director	Award / grant	560	37,281	Form 4
2026-04-01	Shotwell Gwynne	director	Award / grant	560	26,074	Form 4
2026-03-02	Mack Robert Paul	officer	Option exercise	23	80,469	Form 4
2026-03-02	Mack Robert Paul	officer	Option exercise	23	2,753	Form 4
2026-03-02	Mack Robert Paul	officer	Option exercise	23	80,469	Form 4
2026-03-02	Mack Robert Paul	officer	Option exercise	23	2,753	Form 4
2026-02-10	Speetzen Michael T	director	Withheld for tax	10,166	171,448	Form 4
2026-02-10	Mack Robert Paul	officer	Withheld for tax	6,565	88,232	Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Resolves in i

28d remaining

2026-09-173% elapsed2026-10-15

Logged immutably 2026-09-17; scored automatically on 2026-10-15 — no edits, ever.

Earnings & context analysis

These panels are being prepared. They are generated by multiple language models, checked, and stored before display — never written live for a page view. Until a model panel has been generated and reviewed for a company, nothing is shown here, honestly, rather than a placeholder.

Calibration i

Every forecast is logged when made and scored when the month is up. The record is shown from the day it starts — young and honest.

How scoring works →

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

Reported insider & political trades

Congressional disclosures

Seasonality · by month i