Issued 2026-09-16 at $216.99 · now $216.99 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, PGR has typically landed between $198.85 and $242.21 — a range of −8.4% to +11.6% from the issuance price $216.99.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
4,685 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($216.99) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where PGR has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $216.99 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $216.99 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $220.15 (+1.5%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $211.72–$228.57
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $198.85–$242.21
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,685 windows spanning 2008-01-02 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2008-09-26 | −32.4% | −32.4% | +0.2% |
| 2008-09-25 | −29.1% | −29.1% | +0.6% |
| 2008-09-10 | −28.0% | −28.0% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2009-03-09 | +37.4% | +0.0% | +40.5% |
| 2009-03-06 | +33.9% | −4.2% | +34.6% |
| 2009-03-10 | +33.7% | +0.0% | +33.7% |
4,685 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.
$124.3B
market cap
$19.94
EPS (TTM)
10.7
P/E (TTM)
2026-10-14
next earnings
Revenue$87.6B
'20'25
Net income$11.3B
'20'25
Free cash flow$17.2B
'20'25
Net margin · by yr12.9%
'20'25
ROE · by yr37.3%
'20'25
Debt / equity · by yr0.23
'20'25
Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.
iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 69 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.- DCF (intrinsic)$389.40
- Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 16.4× · n=69$326.66
- Analyst target · range $198.00–$259.00$225.00
- Current price · last close 2026-09-16$216.99
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
56%
+1.3%
n=18
Feb
74%
+3.9%
n=19
Mar
68%
+3.5%
n=19
Apr
63%
+1.6%
n=19
May
74%
+1.8%
n=19
Jun
42%
−0.5%
n=19
Jul
53%
+0.5%
n=19
Aug
63%
+2.3%
n=19
Sep
58%
+0.6%
n=19
Oct
50%
−0.2%
n=18
Nov
61%
+2.5%
n=18
Dec
44%
+1.3%
n=18
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-01 | Griffith Susan Patricia | director | Sale | 37,338 @ $219.50 | $8.2M | −7.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 485,438 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-20 | Broz Steven | officer | Sale | 1,225 @ $219.40 | $269K | −3.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 31,257 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-13 | Niederst Lori A | officer | Sale | 7,339 @ $209.29 | $1.5M | −14.7% of holding | +8.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 42,567 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-28 | Quigg Andrew J | officer | Sale | 3,499 @ $220.00 | $770K | −7.6% of holding | −2.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 42,595 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-27 | Griffith Susan Patricia | director | Sale | 37,338 @ $212.71 | $7.9M | −6.7% of holding | −0.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 522,776 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-27 | Bailo Karen | officer | Sale | 8,452 @ $212.71 | $1.8M | −20.7% of holding | −0.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 32,348 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-27 | Murphy John Jo | officer | Sale | 8,124 @ $212.70 | $1.7M | −16.4% of holding | −0.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 41,291 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-27 | Bauer Jonathan S. | officer | Sale | 2,242 @ $212.71 | $477K | −7.9% of holding | −0.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 26,250 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-23 | Broz Steven | officer | Sale | 1,156 @ $205.17 | $237K | −4.2% of holding | +2.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 26,355 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-24 | KELLY JEFFREY D | director | Sale | 7,000 @ $216.33 | $1.5M | −23.7% of holding | −3.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 22,546 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-22 | Broz Steven | officer | Sale | 1,157 @ $204.76 | $237K | −4.0% of holding | −1.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 27,511 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-05 | Murphy John Jo | officer | Sale | 5,916 @ $200.00 | $1.2M | −12.5% of holding | +12.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 41,290 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-05 | Broz Steven | officer | Sale | 1,157 @ $200.00 | $231K | −3.9% of holding | +12.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 28,668 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-16 | Johnson Devin C | director | Sale | 980 @ $203.10 | $199K | −10.2% of holding | −7.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 8,621 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-20 | Joyce Carl G | officer | Sale | 270 @ $206.50 | $56K | −32.6% of holding | −7.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 558 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-05 | Bailo Karen | officer | Sale | 3,517 @ $212.00 | $746K | −9.8% of holding | −3.7% | −7.7% | 32,348 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-05 | Joyce Carl G | officer | Sale | 141 @ $212.00 | $30K | −14.5% of holding | −3.7% | −7.7% | 828 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-24 | Pumarejo Maribel | officer | Sale | 739 @ $203.25 | $150K | −100.0% of holding | +2.6% | −4.1% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-23 | Bauer Jonathan S. | officer | Sale | 2,266 @ $203.05 | $460K | −7.9% of holding | +5.3% | −2.4% | 26,250 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-01-21 | Bauer Jonathan S. | officer | Sale | 3,105 @ $204.35 | $635K | −10.6% of holding | −0.1% | −6.2% | 26,249 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-01-21 | Quigg Andrew J | officer | Sale | 1,649 @ $204.35 | $337K | −4.0% of holding | −0.1% | −6.2% | 39,626 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-19 | Broz Steven | officer | Sale | 1,344 @ $224.80 | $302K | −4.9% of holding | −3.1% | −3.7% | 26,354 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-28 | Sauerland John P | director | Sale | 5,000 @ $228.48 | $1.1M | −2.2% of holding | −0.3% | −20.2% | 223,024 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-21 | Broz Steven | officer | Sale | 1,345 @ $228.29 | $307K | −4.6% of holding | −4.3% | −22.2% | 27,698 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-11 | Broz Steven | officer | Sale | 1,345 @ $220.00 | $296K | −4.4% of holding | +3.9% | −14.9% | 29,043 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-19 | Callahan Patrick K | officer | Sale | 6,420 @ $242.22 | $1.6M | −29.7% of holding | −10.6% | −9.3% | 15,192 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-19 | Murphy John Jo | officer | Sale | 2,218 @ $242.10 | $537K | −4.9% of holding | −10.6% | −9.3% | 43,506 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-19 | Broz Steven | officer | Sale | 1,345 @ $242.10 | $326K | −4.2% of holding | −10.6% | −9.3% | 30,388 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-02 | Griffith Susan Patricia | director | Sale | 30,659 @ $246.06 | $7.5M | −6.0% of holding | −4.4% | −16.1% | 476,286 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-22 | Callahan Patrick K | officer | Sale | 6,232 @ $249.96 | $1.6M | −22.4% of holding | −7.3% | −19.1% | 21,612 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-22 | Murphy John Jo | officer | Sale | 2,218 @ $250.78 | $556K | −4.6% of holding | −7.3% | −19.1% | 45,724 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-22 | Broz Steven | officer | Sale | 1,345 @ $250.78 | $337K | −4.1% of holding | −7.3% | −19.1% | 31,733 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-14 | Niederst Lori A | officer | Sale | 8,063 @ $250.18 | $2.0M | −17.1% of holding | −4.6% | −19.6% | 39,040 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-07-28 | Griffith Susan Patricia | director | Sale | 30,660 @ $242.12 | $7.4M | −5.7% of holding | +0.8% | −17.9% | 506,945 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-07-28 | Sauerland John P | director | Sale | 16,664 @ $249.24 | $4.2M | −6.8% of holding | +0.8% | −17.9% | 228,024 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-07-28 | Bailo Karen | officer | Sale | 8,922 @ $249.24 | $2.2M | −21.6% of holding | +0.8% | −17.9% | 32,346 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-07-28 | Callahan Patrick K | officer | Sale | 6,232 @ $242.16 | $1.5M | −18.3% of holding | +0.8% | −17.9% | 27,844 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-07-28 | Quigg Andrew J | officer | Sale | 3,191 @ $249.24 | $795K | −7.8% of holding | +0.8% | −17.9% | 37,977 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-07-28 | Bauer Jonathan S. | officer | Sale | 2,391 @ $249.24 | $596K | −8.2% of holding | +0.8% | −17.9% | 26,698 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-07-28 | Murphy John Jo | officer | Sale | 2,218 @ $249.24 | $553K | −4.4% of holding | +0.8% | −17.9% | 47,942 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-07-18 | Broz Steven | officer | Sale | 1,267 @ $247.54 | $314K | −4.6% of holding | −2.2% | −23.5% | 26,354 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-30 | Sauerland John P | director | Sale | 10,000 @ $263.79 | $2.6M | −4.2% of holding | −12.1% | −26.3% | 228,024 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-20 | Murphy John Jo | officer | Sale | 4,000 @ $260.38 | $1.0M | −8.8% of holding | −11.4% | −28.3% | 41,289 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-20 | Burgdoerfer Stuart B | director | Sale | 3,681 @ $260.43 | $959K | −23.2% of holding | −11.4% | −28.3% | 12,217 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-20 | Broz Steven | officer | Sale | 1,267 @ $260.38 | $330K | −4.4% of holding | −11.4% | −28.3% | 27,621 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
255 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-01 | Griffith Susan Patricia | director | Gift | 1,598 | 483,840 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-24 | Griffith Susan Patricia | director | Withheld for tax | 58,919 | 560,114 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-24 | Callahan Patrick K | officer | Withheld for tax | 12,578 | 36,707 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-24 | Bailo Karen | officer | Withheld for tax | 6,578 | 40,800 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-24 | Murphy John Jo | officer | Withheld for tax | 6,404 | 49,415 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-24 | Niederst Lori A | officer | Withheld for tax | 5,812 | 49,906 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-24 | Quigg Andrew J | officer | Withheld for tax | 5,526 | 46,094 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-24 | Broz Steven | officer | Withheld for tax | 4,832 | 32,482 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-24 | Clawson William L. II | officer | Withheld for tax | 4,136 | 21,351 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-24 | Bauer Jonathan S. | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,933 | 28,492 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-24 | WITALEC DANIEL J | officer | Withheld for tax | 706 | 4,166 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-24 | DAY HEATHER E | officer | Withheld for tax | 613 | 18,895 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-24 | Stringer David M | officer | Withheld for tax | 235 | 5,034 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-24 | Griffith Susan Patricia | director | Award / grant | 133,595 | 619,033 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-24 | Bailo Karen | officer | Award / grant | 15,030 | 47,378 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-24 | Niederst Lori A | officer | Award / grant | 13,152 | 55,718 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-24 | Murphy John Jo | officer | Award / grant | 14,529 | 55,819 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-24 | Quigg Andrew J | officer | Award / grant | 12,525 | 51,620 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-24 | Bauer Jonathan S. | officer | Award / grant | 4,176 | 30,425 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-24 | Stringer David M | officer | Award / grant | 530 | 5,269 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-24 | WITALEC DANIEL J | officer | Award / grant | 2,422 | 4,872 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-24 | Broz Steven | officer | Award / grant | 10,959 | 37,314 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-24 | Clawson William L. II | officer | Award / grant | 9,603 | 25,487 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-24 | DAY HEATHER E | officer | Award / grant | 2,088 | 19,508 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-24 | Callahan Patrick K | officer | Award / grant | 29,852 | 49,285 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-20 | Niederst Lori A | officer | Award / grant | 337 | 13,090 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-20 | DAY HEATHER E | officer | Award / grant | 1,443 | 5,588 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-20 | Quigg Andrew J | officer | Award / grant | 481 | 12,643 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-13 | Griffith Susan Patricia | director | Gift | 6,043 | 485,438 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-10 | Bleser Philip | director | Award / grant | 11 | 25,023 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-10 | Broz Steven | officer | Award / grant | 5 | 12,510 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-10 | Callahan Patrick K | officer | Award / grant | 7 | 15,368 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-10 | Callahan Patrick K | officer | Award / grant | 43 | 98,303 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-10 | Clawson William L. II | officer | Award / grant | 5 | 11,702 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-10 | Craig Pamela J. | director | Award / grant | 3 | 7,055 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-10 | DAVIS CHARLES A | director | Award / grant | 2 | 5,041 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-10 | DAVIS CHARLES A | director | Award / grant | 10 | 21,921 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-10 | DAY HEATHER E | officer | Award / grant | 2 | 4,145 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-10 | FARAH ROGER N | director | Award / grant | 68 | 155,687 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-10 | FITT LAWTON W | director | Award / grant | 64 | 146,014 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.
As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date
Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793
A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).
| Member | Chamber | Type | Filed | Traded | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alan Armstrong | Senate | sale | 2026-07-21 | 2026-03-27 | $15–50K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-07-06 | 2026-06-02 | $15–50K |
| Gilbert Cisneros | House | purchase | 2026-07-02 | 2026-06-16 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-06-09 | 2026-05-15 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-06-09 | 2026-05-27 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-05-11 | 2026-04-24 | $15–50K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-05-11 | 2026-04-13 | $1–15K |
| David J. Taylor | House | purchase | 2026-05-07 | 2026-04-27 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-04-07 | 2026-03-23 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-04-07 | 2026-03-30 | $15–50K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-03-09 | 2026-02-17 | $15–50K |
| Gilbert Cisneros | House | sale | 2026-03-09 | 2026-02-10 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-03-09 | 2026-02-24 | $1–15K |
| David J. Taylor | House | purchase | 2026-02-20 | 2026-02-10 | $1–15K |
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.