Issued 2026-09-16 at $17.84 · now $17.84 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, PEB has typically landed between $15.09 and $20.84 — a range of −15.4% to +16.8% from the issuance price $17.84.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
4,196 overlapping 1 month windows · 2009-12-09 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($17.84) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where PEB has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $17.84 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $17.84 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $17.77 (-0.4%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $16.72–$18.82
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $15.09–$20.84
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2020-02-18 | −75.1% | −75.1% | +0.1% |
| 2020-02-19 | −67.7% | −74.4% | +2.9% |
| 2020-02-20 | −65.5% | −74.8% | +1.1% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2020-03-18 | +72.1% | +0.0% | +84.2% |
| 2020-05-07 | +68.3% | −14.7% | +68.3% |
| 2020-05-06 | +63.6% | −8.1% | +63.6% |
4,196 overlapping windows · 2009-12-09 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~17 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-03 | Fisher Thomas Charles | officer | Sale | 40,000 @ $19.25 | $770K | −12.3% of holding | −9.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 285,163 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-12 | BORTZ JON E | director | Purchase | 20,000 @ $18.18 | $364K | +1.2% of holding | +1.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,657,110 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-11 | BORTZ JON E | director | Purchase | 20,000 @ $17.73 | $355K | +1.2% of holding | +3.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,637,110 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-10 | BORTZ JON E | director | Purchase | 20,000 @ $17.23 | $345K | +1.3% of holding | +2.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,617,110 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-09 | BORTZ JON E | director | Purchase | 20,000 @ $17.09 | $342K | +1.3% of holding | +3.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,597,110 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-06-08 | BORTZ JON E | director | Purchase | 20,000 @ $16.84 | $337K | +1.3% of holding | +5.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,577,110 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-15 | BORTZ JON E | director | Sale | 50,000 @ $11.26 | $563K | −3.1% of holding | +2.5% | +48.7% | 1,557,110 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-19 | SCHALL MICHAEL J | director | Purchase | 10,000 @ $10.85 | $109K | +9.1% of holding | +5.4% | +26.3% | 119,693 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-19 | SCHALL MICHAEL J | director | Purchase | 10,000 @ $10.08 | $101K | +10.0% of holding | +17.0% | +16.3% | 109,693 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-06 | BORTZ JON E | director | Purchase | 5,000 @ $9.50 | $48K | +0.3% of holding | +6.6% | −2.8% | 1,607,110 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-05-30 | BORTZ JON E | director | Purchase | 18,000 @ $9.15 | $165K | +1.1% of holding | +7.5% | +7.1% | 1,602,110 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-05-27 | BORTZ JON E | director | Purchase | 6,000 @ $9.00 | $54K | +0.4% of holding | +1.9% | +6.1% | 1,584,110 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-05-23 | Jackson Ron E. | director | Purchase | 10,000 @ $8.91 | $89K | +10.3% of holding | +1.9% | +10.6% | 106,898 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-05-22 | BORTZ JON E | director | Purchase | 20,000 @ $8.99 | $180K | +1.3% of holding | +0.3% | +3.5% | 1,578,110 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-05-20 | BORTZ JON E | director | Purchase | 23,213 @ $9.73 | $226K | +1.5% of holding | −1.8% | +0.4% | 1,558,110 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-05-16 | BORTZ JON E | director | Purchase | 10,787 @ $10.07 | $109K | +0.7% of holding | −7.1% | −4.3% | 1,534,897 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-05-07 | BORTZ JON E | director | Purchase | 15,000 @ $8.97 | $135K | +1.0% of holding | +0.3% | −6.7% | 1,524,110 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-05-07 | SCHALL MICHAEL J | director | Purchase | 10,000 @ $9.04 | $90K | +117.6% of holding | +0.3% | −6.7% | 18,500 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-05-06 | BORTZ JON E | director | Purchase | 42,000 @ $8.94 | $375K | +2.9% of holding | −2.1% | −5.8% | 1,509,110 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-03-24 | BORTZ JON E | director | Purchase | 25,000 @ $10.45 | $261K | +1.7% of holding | −9.8% | −6.5% | 1,467,110 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-03-21 | BORTZ JON E | director | Purchase | 28,000 @ $10.11 | $283K | +2.0% of holding | −8.0% | −6.2% | 1,442,110 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-05 | BORTZ JON E | director | Purchase | 15,000 @ $11.91 | $179K | +1.1% of holding | −13.4% | −12.2% | 1,414,110 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-05 | SCHALL MICHAEL J | director | Purchase | 10,000 @ $11.87 | $119K | +11.1% of holding | −13.4% | −12.2% | 99,693 | Form 4 · filed same day |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
29 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-02 | Jones Nina P | director | Award / grant | 3,876 | 3,876 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-05 | Martz Raymond D | officer | Award / grant | 56,218 | 434,197 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-05 | BORTZ JON E | director | Award / grant | 127,369 | 643,500 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-05 | Fisher Thomas Charles | officer | Award / grant | 56,218 | 325,163 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-01 | Fisher Thomas Charles | officer | Withheld for tax | 21,275 | 268,945 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-01 | Jackson Ron E. | director | Award / grant | 16,582 | 123,480 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-01 | SCHALL MICHAEL J | director | Award / grant | 14,837 | 134,530 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-01 | Donnell Cydney | director | Award / grant | 14,837 | 101,171 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-01 | WEBB EARL E | director | Award / grant | 10,211 | 60,967 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-01 | Simi Bonny W | director | Award / grant | 8,073 | 36,371 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-01 | Miller Phillip M. | director | Award / grant | 7,418 | 26,180 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-07 | BORTZ JON E | director | Withheld for tax | 11,430 | 1,399,110 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-07 | Fisher Thomas Charles | officer | Withheld for tax | 4,983 | 290,220 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-07 | Martz Raymond D | officer | Withheld for tax | 4,810 | 254,952 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-07 | Fisher Thomas Charles | officer | Award / grant | 47,426 | 284,931 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-07 | BORTZ JON E | director | Award / grant | 112,168 | 516,131 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-07 | Martz Raymond D | officer | Award / grant | 47,426 | 377,979 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-07 | BORTZ JON E | director | Award / grant | 23,968 | 1,410,540 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-07 | Martz Raymond D | officer | Award / grant | 10,272 | 259,762 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-07 | Fisher Thomas Charles | officer | Award / grant | 10,272 | 295,203 | Form 4 |
| 2025-01-01 | Fisher Thomas Charles | officer | Withheld for tax | 16,944 | 237,505 | Form 4 |
| 2025-01-01 | Jackson Ron E. | director | Award / grant | 12,425 | 96,898 | Form 4 |
| 2025-01-01 | Donnell Cydney | director | Award / grant | 11,329 | 86,334 | Form 4 |
| 2025-01-01 | SCHALL MICHAEL J | director | Award / grant | 11,329 | 89,693 | Form 4 |
| 2025-01-01 | BORTZ JON E | director | Withheld for tax | 8,712 | 1,386,572 | Form 4 |
| 2025-01-01 | WEBB EARL E | director | Award / grant | 7,674 | 50,756 | Form 4 |
| 2025-01-01 | Simi Bonny W | director | Award / grant | 6,030 | 28,298 | Form 4 |
| 2025-01-01 | Miller Phillip M. | director | Award / grant | 5,664 | 18,762 | Form 4 |
| 2025-01-01 | Martz Raymond D | officer | Withheld for tax | 3,895 | 249,490 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.