PCARPACCAR IncIndustrials · Agricultural - Machineryas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $118.22 · now $118.22 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, PCAR has typically landed between $107.71 and $132.64 — a range of −8.9% to +12.2% from the issuance price $118.22.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

4,685 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($118.22) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where PCAR has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $118.22 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$107.71worst · -8.9%$132.64best · +12.2%
  • now $118.22 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $120.42 (+1.9%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $114.21–$126.63
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $107.71–$132.64
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,685 windows spanning 2008-01-02 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2008-09-26−42.8%−42.8%+0.0%
2008-09-25−41.5%−41.5%+0.0%
2008-09-24−40.5%−40.5%+0.0%
3 best
2009-03-30+42.7%+0.0%+42.7%
2009-03-11+40.3%+0.0%+40.3%
2009-03-06+38.0%−0.9%+43.5%

4,685 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.

$69.6B
market cap
$4.70
EPS (TTM)
28.1
P/E (TTM)
2026-07-28
next earnings
Revenue$28.4B
'20'25
Net income$2.4B
'20'25
Free cash flow$3.0B
'20'25
Net margin · by yr8.4%
'20'25
ROE · by yr12.3%
'20'25
Debt / equity · by yr0.00
'20'25

Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.

iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 74 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.
now $118.22$32.62$152.32
  • DCF (intrinsic)$40.88
  • Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 30.7× · n=74$144.07
  • Analyst target · range $109.00–$139.00$131.00
  • Current price · last close 2026-09-16$118.22

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
67%
+3.4%
n=18
Feb
47%
+0.6%
n=19
Mar
68%
+1.4%
n=19
Apr
53%
+1.9%
n=19
May
37%
−2.1%
n=19
Jun
58%
+0.9%
n=19
Jul
74%
+3.5%
n=19
Aug
42%
−2.3%
n=19
Sep
42%
−0.6%
n=19
Oct
61%
+2.9%
n=18
Nov
67%
+3.8%
n=18
Dec
56%
+1.1%
n=18

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$138$912026-07-31: 4 insider sales, $7.6M — FEIGHT R PRESTON, Bolgar Paulo Henrique, Poplawski Brice J, Walters William Lance2026-02-12: 1 insider sale, $287K — Poplawski Brice J2026-02-11: 1 insider sale, $1.1M — Gryniewicz Craig R2026-02-04: 1 insider sale, $1.2M — FEIGHT R PRESTON2026-02-03: 4 insider sales, $13.6M — DOZIER C MICHAEL, BANEY KEVIN D, FEIGHT R PRESTON, Bloch Laura J2026-02-02: 3 insider sales, $2.2M — FEIGHT R PRESTON, Bloch Laura J, Poplawski Brice J2026-01-30: 2 insider sales, $2.6M — Bolgar Paulo Henrique, FEIGHT R PRESTON2026-01: 2 open-market sales, $2.6M2026-02: 10 open-market sales, $18.5M2026-07: 4 open-market sales, $7.6M↑ buys↓ salesdirector FEIGHT R PRESTON — Sale on 2026-07-31, filed 3 days after the tradeofficer Bolgar Paulo Henrique — Sale on 2026-07-31, filed 3 days after the tradeofficer Poplawski Brice J — Sale on 2026-07-31, filed 3 days after the tradeofficer Walters William Lance — Sale on 2026-07-31, filed 3 days after the tradeofficer Poplawski Brice J — Sale on 2026-02-12, filed same dayofficer Gryniewicz Craig R — Sale on 2026-02-11, filed same daydirector FEIGHT R PRESTON — Sale on 2026-02-04, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer DOZIER C MICHAEL — Sale on 2026-02-03, filed same dayofficer BANEY KEVIN D — Sale on 2026-02-03, filed same daydirector FEIGHT R PRESTON — Sale on 2026-02-03, filed same dayofficer Bloch Laura J — Sale on 2026-02-03, filed same daydirector FEIGHT R PRESTON — Sale on 2026-02-02, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Bloch Laura J — Sale on 2026-02-02, filed same dayofficer Poplawski Brice J — Sale on 2026-02-02, filed same dayofficer Bolgar Paulo Henrique — Sale on 2026-01-30, filed 3 days after the tradedirector FEIGHT R PRESTON — Sale on 2026-01-30, filed 4 days after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-07-31FEIGHT R PRESTONdirectorSale50,975 @ $133.07$6.8M−15.9% of holding−9.1%not yet — horizon still open268,625Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-07-31Bolgar Paulo HenriqueofficerSale2,897 @ $133.90$388K−43.1% of holding−9.1%not yet — horizon still open3,831Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-07-31Poplawski Brice JofficerSale1,970 @ $132.50$261K−58.6% of holding−9.1%not yet — horizon still open1,391Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-07-31Walters William LanceofficerSale1,000 @ $133.50$134K−100.0% of holding−9.1%not yet — horizon still open0Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-02-12Poplawski Brice JofficerSale2,200 @ $130.41$287K−70.9% of holding−5.6%−9.5%903Form 4 · filed same day
2026-02-11Gryniewicz Craig RofficerSale8,748 @ $129.00$1.1M−59.9% of holding−6.6%−11.7%5,851Form 4 · filed same day
2026-02-04FEIGHT R PRESTONdirectorSale9,258 @ $129.70$1.2M−3.5% of holding−4.2%−9.7%258,566Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-03DOZIER C MICHAELofficerSale79,076 @ $127.92$10.1M−69.5% of holding−2.1%−7.4%34,656Form 4 · filed same day
2026-02-03BANEY KEVIN DofficerSale9,672 @ $126.53$1.2M−43.4% of holding−2.1%−7.4%12,592Form 4 · filed same day
2026-02-03FEIGHT R PRESTONdirectorSale9,258 @ $127.44$1.2M−3.6% of holding−2.1%−7.4%244,433Form 4 · filed same day
2026-02-03Bloch Laura JofficerSale8,832 @ $125.75$1.1M−59.1% of holding−2.1%−7.4%6,102Form 4 · filed same day
2026-02-02FEIGHT R PRESTONdirectorSale9,258 @ $123.65$1.1M−3.6% of holding+2.0%−1.8%244,433Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-02Bloch Laura JofficerSale6,588 @ $123.57$814K−51.9% of holding+2.0%−1.8%6,102Form 4 · filed same day
2026-02-02Poplawski Brice JofficerSale2,200 @ $123.99$273K−70.9% of holding+2.0%−1.8%903Form 4 · filed same day
2026-01-30Bolgar Paulo HenriqueofficerSale12,183 @ $122.43$1.5M−66.0% of holding+0.5%−2.0%6,274Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-01-30FEIGHT R PRESTONdirectorSale9,258 @ $122.39$1.1M−3.6% of holding+0.5%−2.0%244,433Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

284 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-09-02PIGOTT MARK CdirectorOther acquisition501176,255Form 4
2026-09-02HACHIGIAN KIRK SdirectorOther acquisition22277,643Form 4
2026-09-02Pigott JohndirectorOther acquisition20973,122Form 4
2026-09-02SCHULZ MARK AdirectorOther acquisition9734,065Form 4
2026-09-02Walters William LanceofficerOther acquisition7526,346Form 4
2026-09-02CARNWATH ALISON JdirectorOther acquisition6623,082Form 4
2026-09-02Poplawski Brice JofficerOther acquisition5318,485Form 4
2026-09-02FEIGHT R PRESTONdirectorOther acquisition5017,749Form 4
2026-09-02WALTON MICHAEL KofficerOther acquisition4013,993Form 4
2026-09-02RAMASWAMY SREEGANESHdirectorOther acquisition3913,518Form 4
2026-09-02RAMASWAMY SREEGANESHdirectorOther acquisition3110,900Form 4
2026-09-02Gryniewicz Craig RofficerOther acquisition227,592Form 4
2026-09-02Hulit Barbara B.directorOther acquisition207,022Form 4
2026-09-02WALTON MICHAEL KofficerOther acquisition206,870Form 4
2026-09-02BANEY KEVIN DofficerOther acquisition176,073Form 4
2026-09-02Pretti Luiz Antonio Dos SantosdirectorOther acquisition124,254Form 4
2026-09-02Breber Pierre RdirectorOther acquisition124,201Form 4
2026-09-02Breber Pierre RdirectorOther acquisition124,048Form 4
2026-09-02Pigott JohndirectorOther acquisition113,683Form 4
2026-09-02Walters William LanceofficerOther acquisition82,861Form 4
2026-09-02Bloch Laura JofficerOther acquisition72,499Form 4
2026-09-02Pretti Luiz Antonio Dos SantosdirectorOther acquisition51,731Form 4
2026-09-02Rich John NofficerOther acquisition41,327Form 4
2026-09-02Scheiter Dietmar A.directorOther acquisition31,105Form 4
2026-09-02Bolgar Paulo HenriqueofficerOther acquisition3915Form 4
2026-07-31FEIGHT R PRESTONdirectorOption exercise70,519319,600Form 4
2026-07-31FEIGHT R PRESTONdirectorOption exercise70,51970,519Form 4
2026-07-31Poplawski Brice JofficerOption exercise1,9700Form 4
2026-07-31Poplawski Brice JofficerOption exercise1,9703,361Form 4
2026-07-31Walters William LanceofficerOption exercise1,0002,000Form 4
2026-07-31Walters William LanceofficerOption exercise1,0001,000Form 4
2026-07-01Breber Pierre RdirectorOther acquisition4124,036Form 4
2026-07-01RAMASWAMY SREEGANESHdirectorOther acquisition32010,869Form 4
2026-07-01Pigott JohndirectorOther acquisition2893,672Form 4
2026-07-01Pretti Luiz Antonio Dos SantosdirectorOther acquisition1751,726Form 4
2026-06-03PIGOTT MARK CdirectorOther acquisition534175,754Form 4
2026-06-03HACHIGIAN KIRK SdirectorOther acquisition23677,422Form 4
2026-06-03Pigott JohndirectorOther acquisition22272,913Form 4
2026-06-03SCHULZ MARK AdirectorOther acquisition10433,968Form 4
2026-06-03Walters William LanceofficerOther acquisition8026,244Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.

As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date

Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793

A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).

'23 Q'24 Q'24 Q'24 Q'24 Q'25 Q'25 Q'26 Q'26 Q'26 Qpurchases ▲ / sales ▼ ($ vol)
MemberChamberTypeFiledTradedSize
Alan ArmstrongSenatepurchase2026-07-212026-03-27$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-07-062026-06-30$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-07-062026-06-02$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-06-092026-05-01$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-05-112026-04-24$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-02-062026-01-29$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2025-05-122025-04-15$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2025-05-122025-04-09$1–15K
Rob BresnahanHousepurchase2025-05-082025-04-08$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2025-04-102025-03-06$1–15K
Rob BresnahanHousesale2025-02-132025-01-13$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2024-12-052024-11-12$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2024-11-082024-10-14$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2024-09-062024-08-05$1–15K

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.