Issued 2026-08-13 at $8.90 · now $8.71 (2026-08-13, −2.1% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-08-13 close, PBYI has typically landed between $6.38 and $12.25 — a range of −28.3% to +37.6% from the issuance price $8.90.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
3,574 overlapping 1 month windows · 2012-04-24 – 2026-07-15 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.8% (90% CI 51.6–56.0%, ≈1,400 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-08-13 issuance close ($8.90) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-09-11, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where PBYI has typically landed a month from the 2026-08-13 close of $8.9 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $8.71 (-2.1%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $8.99 (+1.0%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $7.84–$10.14
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $6.38–$12.25
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2019-04-23 | −55.3% | −55.3% | +0.0% |
| 2019-04-24 | −55.1% | −55.1% | +0.0% |
| 2019-05-06 | −54.7% | −54.7% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2014-07-17 | +341.5% | −0.6% | +341.5% |
| 2014-07-18 | +334.6% | −0.0% | +343.9% |
| 2014-07-21 | +323.7% | +0.0% | +343.9% |
3,574 overlapping windows · 2012-04-24 – 2026-08-13 · not cherry-picked
Pending catalysts
- 2027-10-30 — Trial primary completion: Phase 2 primary completion: A Study of Alisertib in Patients With Extensive Stage Small Cell Lung Cancer (source, as of 2026-08-14)
- 2027-12-30 — Trial primary completion: Phase 2 primary completion: A Study of Alisertib in Combination With Endocrine Therapy in Patients With HR-positive, HER2-negative Recurrent or Metastatic Breast Cancer (source, as of 2026-08-14)
Public, scheduled events — dated attention, not a prediction of the outcome. See the FDA catalysts page for the historical base rate.
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~15 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Company insiders iOpen-market share purchases and sales by the company's own officers and directors, by filing date.
Last 90 days · as of 2026-08-13 · point-in-time by filing date
No insider transactions on record in the last 90 days.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. Full terms.