PBYIPuma Biotechnology, Inc.Healthcare · Biotechnologyas of 2026-09-25
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-25 at $9.77 · now $9.77 (2026-09-25, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-25 close, PBYI has typically landed between $7.00 and $13.44 — a range of −28.3% to +37.6% from the issuance price $9.77.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

3,604 overlapping 1 month windows · 2012-04-24 – 2026-08-26 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Base rate up 53.7% (90% CI 51.5–55.9%, ≈1,391 obs). Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-25 issuance close ($9.77) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-26, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where PBYI has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-25 close of $9.77 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$7worst · -28.3%$13.44best · +37.6%
  • now $9.77 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $9.99 (+2.2%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $8.74–$11.24
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $7–$13.44
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 3,604 windows spanning 2012-04-24 to 2026-09-25. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2019-04-23−55.3%−55.3%+0.0%
2019-04-24−55.1%−55.1%+0.0%
2019-05-06−54.7%−54.7%+0.0%
3 best
2014-07-17+341.5%−0.6%+341.5%
2014-07-18+334.6%−0.0%+343.9%
2014-07-21+323.7%+0.0%+343.9%

3,604 overlapping windows · 2012-04-24 – 2026-09-25 · not cherry-picked

Pending catalysts

  • 2027-10-30 — Trial primary completion: Phase 2 primary completion: A Study of Alisertib in Patients With Extensive Stage Small Cell Lung Cancer (source, as of 2026-08-14)
  • 2027-12-30 — Trial primary completion: Phase 2 primary completion: A Study of Alisertib in Combination With Endocrine Therapy in Patients With HR-positive, HER2-negative Recurrent or Metastatic Breast Cancer (source, as of 2026-08-14)

Public, scheduled events — dated attention, not a prediction of the outcome. See the FDA catalysts page for the historical base rate.

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~15 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
64%
+0.8%
n=14
Feb
50%
+5.5%
n=14
Mar
50%
+0.2%
n=14
Apr
43%
−3.9%
n=14
May
60%
+4.1%
n=15
Jun
53%
−1.5%
n=15
Jul
53%
+17.4%
n=15
Aug
60%
+5.7%
n=15
Sep
60%
−0.0%
n=15
Oct
36%
−8.6%
n=14
Nov
50%
+13.5%
n=14
Dec
29%
+2.3%
n=14

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$10$42026-09-14: 2 insider sales, $612K — Cesano Alessandra, WILSON TROY EDWARD2026-07-06: 3 insider sales, $512K — AUERBACH ALAN H, NOUGUES MAXIMO F, HUNT DOUGLAS M2026-06-12: 5 insider sales, $573K — Senderowicz Adrian, MOYES JAY M, Dorval Allison, WILSON TROY EDWARD …2026-01-07: 3 insider sales, $173K — AUERBACH ALAN H, NOUGUES MAXIMO F, HUNT DOUGLAS M2026-01-06: 3 insider sales, $149K — AUERBACH ALAN H, NOUGUES MAXIMO F, HUNT DOUGLAS M2025-11-11: 1 insider sale, $97K — MILLER MICHAEL PATRICK2025-11: 1 open-market sale, $97K2026-01: 6 open-market sales, $322K2026-06: 5 open-market sales, $573K2026-07: 3 open-market sales, $512K2026-09: 2 open-market sales, $612K↑ buys↓ salesdirector Cesano Alessandra — Sale on 2026-09-14, filed 2 days after the tradedirector WILSON TROY EDWARD — Sale on 2026-09-14, filed 2 days after the tradedirector AUERBACH ALAN H — Sale on 2026-07-06, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer NOUGUES MAXIMO F — Sale on 2026-07-06, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer HUNT DOUGLAS M — Sale on 2026-07-06, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Senderowicz Adrian — Sale on 2026-06-12, filed 3 days after the tradedirector MOYES JAY M — Sale on 2026-06-12, filed 3 days after the tradedirector Dorval Allison — Sale on 2026-06-12, filed 3 days after the tradedirector WILSON TROY EDWARD — Sale on 2026-06-12, filed 3 days after the tradedirector Stuglik Brian M — Sale on 2026-06-12, filed 3 days after the tradedirector AUERBACH ALAN H — Sale on 2026-01-07, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer NOUGUES MAXIMO F — Sale on 2026-01-07, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer HUNT DOUGLAS M — Sale on 2026-01-07, filed 1 day after the tradedirector AUERBACH ALAN H — Sale on 2026-01-06, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer NOUGUES MAXIMO F — Sale on 2026-01-06, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer HUNT DOUGLAS M — Sale on 2026-01-06, filed 2 days after the tradedirector MILLER MICHAEL PATRICK — Sale on 2025-11-11, filed 2 days after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-09-14Cesano AlessandradirectorSale62,150 @ $9.12$567K−52.3% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open56,700Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-09-14WILSON TROY EDWARDdirectorSale5,000 @ $9.10$46K−8.4% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open54,750Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-07-06AUERBACH ALAN HdirectorSale44,058 @ $8.26$364K−0.6% of holding−7.8%not yet — horizon still open7,261,671Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-07-06NOUGUES MAXIMO FofficerSale9,386 @ $8.26$78K−3.9% of holding−7.8%not yet — horizon still open230,637Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-07-06HUNT DOUGLAS MofficerSale8,460 @ $8.26$70K−4.1% of holding−7.8%not yet — horizon still open196,841Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-06-12Senderowicz AdriandirectorSale27,000 @ $7.20$194K−50.0% of holding+12.7%not yet — horizon still open27,000Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-06-12MOYES JAY MdirectorSale22,000 @ $7.22$159K−27.4% of holding+12.7%not yet — horizon still open58,322Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-06-12Dorval AllisondirectorSale11,610 @ $7.20$84K−11.3% of holding+12.7%not yet — horizon still open90,780Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-06-12WILSON TROY EDWARDdirectorSale10,800 @ $7.20$78K−15.3% of holding+12.7%not yet — horizon still open59,750Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-06-12Stuglik Brian MdirectorSale8,100 @ $7.20$58K−6.6% of holding+12.7%not yet — horizon still open113,858Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-01-07AUERBACH ALAN HdirectorSale18,012 @ $5.88$106K−0.3% of holding+13.8%+21.3%7,145,951Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-01-07NOUGUES MAXIMO FofficerSale6,405 @ $5.88$38K−3.2% of holding+13.8%+21.3%193,284Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-01-07HUNT DOUGLAS MofficerSale5,014 @ $5.88$29K−3.1% of holding+13.8%+21.3%155,907Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-01-06AUERBACH ALAN HdirectorSale16,938 @ $5.84$99K−0.2% of holding+17.9%+25.6%7,163,963Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-01-06NOUGUES MAXIMO FofficerSale4,540 @ $5.84$27K−2.2% of holding+17.9%+25.6%199,689Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-01-06HUNT DOUGLAS MofficerSale3,973 @ $5.84$23K−2.4% of holding+17.9%+25.6%160,921Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-11-11MILLER MICHAEL PATRICKdirectorSale20,000 @ $4.86$97K−27.0% of holding+9.5%+28.4%54,000Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-07-18Cesano AlessandradirectorSale27,000 @ $3.37$91K−39.2% of holding+44.8%+76.5%41,850Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-07-09AUERBACH ALAN HdirectorSale21,580 @ $3.54$76K−0.3% of holding−9.9%+58.0%7,180,901Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-07-09NOUGUES MAXIMO FofficerSale3,935 @ $3.54$14K−1.9% of holding−9.9%+58.0%204,229Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-07-09HUNT DOUGLAS MofficerSale3,443 @ $3.54$12K−2.0% of holding−9.9%+58.0%164,894Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-07-08AUERBACH ALAN HdirectorSale25,592 @ $3.53$90K−0.4% of holding−11.5%+51.1%7,202,481Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-07-08NOUGUES MAXIMO FofficerSale5,587 @ $3.53$20K−2.6% of holding−11.5%+51.1%208,164Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-07-08HUNT DOUGLAS MofficerSale4,374 @ $3.53$15K−2.5% of holding−11.5%+51.1%168,337Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-06-13Senderowicz AdriandirectorSale27,000 @ $3.40$92K−50.0% of holding−2.2%+60.1%27,000Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-06-13MOYES JAY MdirectorSale22,000 @ $3.40$75K−29.2% of holding−2.2%+60.1%53,322Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-06-13Cesano AlessandradirectorSale12,150 @ $3.40$41K−15.0% of holding−2.2%+60.1%68,850Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-06-13Dorval AllisondirectorSale11,610 @ $3.40$39K−13.3% of holding−2.2%+60.1%75,390Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-06-13WILSON TROY EDWARDdirectorSale10,800 @ $3.40$37K−19.9% of holding−2.2%+60.1%43,550Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-06-13Stuglik Brian MdirectorSale8,100 @ $3.39$27K−7.9% of holding−2.2%+60.1%94,958Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-01-02AUERBACH ALAN HdirectorSale33,841 @ $3.15$107K−0.5% of holding−12.5%+8.3%7,029,674Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-01-02NOUGUES MAXIMO FofficerSale10,227 @ $3.15$32K−6.3% of holding−12.5%+8.3%152,295Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-01-02Ludwig Jeffrey JeromeofficerSale9,437 @ $3.15$30K−8.0% of holding−12.5%+8.3%108,951Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-01-02HUNT DOUGLAS MofficerSale8,633 @ $3.15$27K−6.5% of holding−12.5%+8.3%124,594Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2024-08-12MILLER MICHAEL PATRICKdirectorSale23,358 @ $3.49$81K−33.2% of holding−31.9%−33.5%47,000Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2024-07-17AUERBACH ALAN HdirectorSale21,920 @ $3.70$81K−0.3% of holding−26.7%−24.2%7,063,515Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2024-07-17NOUGUES MAXIMO FofficerSale4,156 @ $3.70$15K−2.5% of holding−26.7%−24.2%162,522Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2024-07-17HUNT DOUGLAS MofficerSale3,637 @ $3.70$13K−2.7% of holding−26.7%−24.2%133,227Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2024-07-17Ludwig Jeffrey JeromeofficerSale2,598 @ $3.70$10K−2.1% of holding−26.7%−24.2%118,388Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2024-07-02AUERBACH ALAN HdirectorSale18,885 @ $3.27$62K−0.3% of holding+14.0%−9.1%7,085,435Form 4 · filed same day
2024-07-02Ludwig Jeffrey JeromeofficerSale6,051 @ $3.27$20K−4.8% of holding+14.0%−9.1%120,986Form 4 · filed same day
2024-07-02NOUGUES MAXIMO FofficerSale5,295 @ $3.27$17K−3.1% of holding+14.0%−9.1%166,678Form 4 · filed same day
2024-07-02HUNT DOUGLAS MofficerSale4,349 @ $3.27$14K−3.1% of holding+14.0%−9.1%136,864Form 4 · filed same day
2024-06-13WILSON TROY EDWARDdirectorSale27,000 @ $3.33$90K−98.7% of holding+14.5%−24.2%350Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2024-06-13MOYES JAY MdirectorSale22,000 @ $3.34$73K−50.8% of holding+14.5%−24.2%21,322Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2024-06-13Stuglik Brian MdirectorSale9,900 @ $3.39$34K−16.8% of holding+14.5%−24.2%49,058Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

39 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-09-14Cesano AlessandradirectorOption exercise50,000118,850Form 4
2026-09-14Cesano AlessandradirectorOption exercise50,00050,000Form 4
2026-06-11Cesano AlessandradirectorAward / grant27,00068,850Form 4
2026-06-11MILLER MICHAEL PATRICKdirectorAward / grant27,00081,000Form 4
2026-06-11MOYES JAY MdirectorAward / grant27,00080,322Form 4
2026-06-11Senderowicz AdriandirectorAward / grant27,00054,000Form 4
2026-06-11Stuglik Brian MdirectorAward / grant27,000121,958Form 4
2026-06-11WILSON TROY EDWARDdirectorAward / grant27,00070,550Form 4
2026-06-11Dorval AllisondirectorAward / grant27,000102,390Form 4
2026-02-18HUNT DOUGLAS MofficerAward / grant49,394205,301Form 4
2026-02-18HUNT DOUGLAS MofficerAward / grant70,32170,321Form 4
2026-02-18AUERBACH ALAN HdirectorAward / grant159,7787,305,729Form 4
2026-02-18AUERBACH ALAN HdirectorAward / grant227,474227,474Form 4
2026-02-18NOUGUES MAXIMO FofficerAward / grant46,739240,023Form 4
2026-02-18NOUGUES MAXIMO FofficerAward / grant66,54166,541Form 4
2025-06-11Cesano AlessandradirectorAward / grant27,00081,000Form 4
2025-06-11Dorval AllisondirectorAward / grant27,00087,000Form 4
2025-06-11Stuglik Brian MdirectorAward / grant27,000103,058Form 4
2025-06-11MILLER MICHAEL PATRICKdirectorAward / grant27,00074,000Form 4
2025-06-11MOYES JAY MdirectorAward / grant27,00075,322Form 4
2025-06-11Senderowicz AdriandirectorAward / grant27,00054,000Form 4
2025-06-11WILSON TROY EDWARDdirectorAward / grant27,00054,350Form 4
2025-02-07AUERBACH ALAN HdirectorAward / grant198,3997,228,073Form 4
2025-02-07NOUGUES MAXIMO FofficerAward / grant61,456213,751Form 4
2025-02-07HUNT DOUGLAS MofficerAward / grant66,60466,604Form 4
2025-02-07NOUGUES MAXIMO FofficerAward / grant85,06785,067Form 4
2025-02-07HUNT DOUGLAS MofficerAward / grant48,117172,711Form 4
2025-02-07Ludwig Jeffrey JeromeofficerAward / grant47,841156,792Form 4
2025-02-07Ludwig Jeffrey JeromeofficerAward / grant66,22166,221Form 4
2025-02-07AUERBACH ALAN HdirectorAward / grant274,622274,622Form 4
2024-06-18WILSON TROY EDWARDdirectorAward / grant27,00027,350Form 4
2024-06-18Senderowicz AdriandirectorAward / grant27,00027,000Form 4
2024-06-18Stuglik Brian MdirectorAward / grant27,00076,058Form 4
2024-06-18Cesano AlessandradirectorAward / grant27,00054,000Form 4
2024-06-18Dorval AllisondirectorAward / grant27,00060,000Form 4
2024-06-18MOYES JAY MdirectorAward / grant27,00048,322Form 4
2024-06-18MILLER MICHAEL PATRICKdirectorAward / grant27,00095,358Form 4
2024-03-15AUERBACH ALAN HdirectorAward / grant6,5777,104,320Form 4
2024-03-15AUERBACH ALAN HdirectorAward / grant9,0479,047Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.