Issued 2026-09-16 at $34.37 · now $34.37 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, OVLY has typically landed between $31.18 and $38.63 — a range of −9.3% to +12.4% from the issuance price $34.37.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
5,003 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($34.37) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where OVLY has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $34.37 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $34.37 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $34.7 (+1.0%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $33.21–$36.19
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $31.18–$38.63
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 5,003 windows spanning 2006-09-26 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2020-02-18 | −39.4% | −39.4% | +1.1% |
| 2008-09-23 | −32.5% | −32.5% | +0.0% |
| 2020-02-13 | −32.4% | −32.4% | +5.4% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2011-09-30 | +54.2% | +0.0% | +54.2% |
| 2011-09-29 | +54.2% | +0.0% | +54.2% |
| 2010-05-06 | +49.3% | +0.0% | +49.3% |
5,003 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
55%
+2.3%
n=20
Feb
50%
−1.7%
n=20
Mar
30%
−2.6%
n=20
Apr
50%
+0.1%
n=20
May
40%
+1.1%
n=20
Jun
45%
+0.8%
n=20
Jul
60%
+1.9%
n=20
Aug
50%
−0.1%
n=20
Sep
30%
−2.8%
n=20
Oct
60%
+4.6%
n=20
Nov
55%
+3.0%
n=20
Dec
55%
+2.9%
n=20
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-28 | Leonard Daniel J | director | Purchase | 125 @ $34.23 | $4K | +0.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 62,662 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-26 | LAFFERTY ALLISON | director | Purchase | 910 @ $33.91 | $31K | +10.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 10,000 | Form 4 · filed 8 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-26 | Barton Don | director | Sale | 375 @ $34.07 | $13K | −1.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 29,600 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-26 | LAFFERTY ALLISON | director | Purchase | 174 @ $33.98 | $6K | +2.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 8,867 | Form 4 · filed 8 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-26 | LAFFERTY ALLISON | director | Purchase | 105 @ $34.10 | $4K | +1.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 9,090 | Form 4 · filed 8 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-26 | LAFFERTY ALLISON | director | Purchase | 68 @ $33.85 | $2K | +0.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 8,985 | Form 4 · filed 8 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-26 | LAFFERTY ALLISON | director | Purchase | 50 @ $33.99 | $2K | +0.6% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 8,917 | Form 4 · filed 8 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-19 | Leonard Daniel J | director | Purchase | 125 @ $34.59 | $4K | +0.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 62,537 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-17 | HOLDER H RANDOLPH JR | director | Purchase | 115 @ $33.75 | $4K | +0.1% of holding | +3.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 152,991 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-27 | Strong Gary | director | Purchase | 2,000 @ $32.50 | $65K | +15.6% of holding | +0.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 14,842 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-07-27 | Barton Don | director | Sale | 375 @ $32.72 | $12K | −1.2% of holding | +0.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 29,975 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-06-26 | Barton Don | director | Sale | 375 @ $33.26 | $12K | −1.2% of holding | +0.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 30,350 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-05-28 | LAFFERTY ALLISON | director | Purchase | 87 @ $33.44 | $3K | +1.0% of holding | +3.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 8,693 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-26 | Barton Don | director | Sale | 375 @ $33.77 | $13K | −1.2% of holding | +0.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 30,725 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-05-12 | HOLDER H RANDOLPH JR | director | Purchase | 200 @ $32.50 | $7K | +0.1% of holding | +5.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 152,876 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-05-05 | LAFFERTY ALLISON | director | Purchase | 180 @ $33.19 | $6K | +2.1% of holding | −2.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 8,606 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-29 | Leonard Daniel J | director | Purchase | 375 @ $33.00 | $12K | +0.6% of holding | −7.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 62,598 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-27 | LAFFERTY ALLISON | director | Purchase | 322 @ $32.51 | $10K | +4.1% of holding | +7.7% | −5.4% | 8,242 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-02-27 | LAFFERTY ALLISON | director | Purchase | 184 @ $32.75 | $6K | +2.2% of holding | +7.7% | −5.4% | 8,426 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-02-13 | WITHROW TERRANCE P | director | Purchase | 297 @ $33.64 | $10K | +0.9% of holding | −3.2% | −11.1% | 31,917 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-13 | Haidlen Erich A | director | Purchase | 179 @ $33.07 | $6K | +0.8% of holding | −3.2% | −11.1% | 22,950 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-13 | Haidlen Erich A | director | Purchase | 71 @ $33.62 | $2K | +0.3% of holding | −3.2% | −11.1% | 22,771 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-12 | Barton Don | director | Sale | 375 @ $30.25 | $11K | −1.2% of holding | +10.1% | +1.8% | 31,100 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-12 | Barton Don | director | Sale | 375 @ $30.29 | $11K | −1.2% of holding | −0.9% | +0.9% | 31,475 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-25 | LAFFERTY ALLISON | director | Purchase | 205 @ $28.53 | $6K | +2.7% of holding | +3.4% | +3.4% | 7,743 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-25 | LAFFERTY ALLISON | director | Purchase | 105 @ $28.31 | $3K | +1.3% of holding | +3.4% | +3.4% | 7,920 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-25 | LAFFERTY ALLISON | director | Purchase | 100 @ $28.40 | $3K | +1.3% of holding | +3.4% | +3.4% | 7,538 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-25 | LAFFERTY ALLISON | director | Purchase | 72 @ $28.74 | $2K | +0.9% of holding | +3.4% | +3.4% | 7,815 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-25 | LAFFERTY ALLISON | director | Purchase | 6 @ $28.35 | $170 | +0.1% of holding | +3.4% | +3.4% | 7,437 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-25 | LAFFERTY ALLISON | director | Purchase | 1 @ $28.32 | $28 | +0.0% of holding | +3.4% | +3.4% | 7,438 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-12 | Barton Don | director | Sale | 375 @ $28.69 | $11K | −1.2% of holding | +5.6% | +5.5% | 31,850 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-10-28 | Strong Gary | director | Purchase | 1,000 @ $27.50 | $28K | +8.4% of holding | +3.6% | +15.3% | 12,842 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-10-13 | Barton Don | director | Sale | 375 @ $26.11 | $10K | −1.2% of holding | +8.4% | +27.1% | 32,225 | Form 4 · filed 7 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-12 | Barton Don | director | Sale | 375 @ $28.80 | $11K | −1.1% of holding | −11.7% | +7.8% | 32,600 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-14 | LAFFERTY ALLISON | director | Purchase | 312 @ $27.68 | $9K | +4.5% of holding | +0.3% | +13.9% | 7,220 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-08-14 | LAFFERTY ALLISON | director | Purchase | 211 @ $27.71 | $6K | +2.9% of holding | +0.3% | +13.9% | 7,431 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-08-12 | Barton Don | director | Sale | 375 @ $27.94 | $10K | −1.1% of holding | +1.2% | +9.4% | 32,975 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-08-08 | WITHROW TERRANCE P | director | Purchase | 294 @ $26.88 | $8K | +0.9% of holding | +3.6% | +12.0% | 31,620 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-08 | Haidlen Erich A | director | Purchase | 71 @ $27.24 | $2K | +0.3% of holding | +3.6% | +12.0% | 22,614 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-01 | Leonard Daniel J | director | Purchase | 1,000 @ $26.20 | $26K | +1.6% of holding | +4.1% | +10.0% | 62,223 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-08-01 | LAFFERTY ALLISON | director | Purchase | 165 @ $26.46 | $4K | +2.4% of holding | +4.1% | +10.0% | 6,908 | Form 4 · filed 13 days after the trade |
| 2025-07-30 | HOLDER H RANDOLPH JR | director | Purchase | 500 @ $27.00 | $14K | +0.3% of holding | +5.0% | +9.7% | 152,676 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-07-14 | Barton Don | director | Sale | 375 @ $28.63 | $11K | −1.1% of holding | −3.5% | −5.2% | 33,350 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-06-12 | Barton Don | director | Sale | 375 @ $26.11 | $10K | −1.1% of holding | +1.1% | +0.7% | 33,725 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-05-27 | HOLDER H RANDOLPH JR | director | Purchase | 2,000 @ $24.83 | $50K | +1.3% of holding | +0.6% | −5.4% | 152,176 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-05-12 | Barton Don | director | Sale | 44 @ $26.50 | $1K | −0.1% of holding | −2.7% | −7.7% | 34,222 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-12 | Barton Don | director | Sale | 37 @ $26.34 | $975 | −0.1% of holding | −2.7% | −7.7% | 34,325 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-12 | Barton Don | director | Sale | 30 @ $26.22 | $787 | −0.1% of holding | −2.7% | −7.7% | 34,392 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-12 | Barton Don | director | Sale | 25 @ $26.54 | $664 | −0.1% of holding | −2.7% | −7.7% | 34,179 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-12 | Barton Don | director | Sale | 25 @ $25.98 | $650 | −0.1% of holding | −2.7% | −7.7% | 34,442 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-12 | Barton Don | director | Sale | 21 @ $26.65 | $560 | −0.1% of holding | −2.7% | −7.7% | 34,105 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-12 | Barton Don | director | Sale | 21 @ $26.59 | $558 | −0.1% of holding | −2.7% | −7.7% | 34,141 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-12 | Barton Don | director | Sale | 21 @ $26.41 | $555 | −0.1% of holding | −2.7% | −7.7% | 34,270 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-12 | Barton Don | director | Sale | 16 @ $26.23 | $420 | −0.0% of holding | −2.7% | −7.7% | 34,376 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-12 | Barton Don | director | Sale | 14 @ $26.52 | $371 | −0.0% of holding | −2.7% | −7.7% | 34,208 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-12 | Barton Don | director | Sale | 14 @ $26.30 | $368 | −0.0% of holding | −2.7% | −7.7% | 34,362 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-12 | Barton Don | director | Sale | 12 @ $26.40 | $317 | −0.0% of holding | −2.7% | −7.7% | 34,291 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-12 | Barton Don | director | Sale | 11 @ $26.03 | $286 | −0.0% of holding | −2.7% | −7.7% | 34,422 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-12 | Barton Don | director | Sale | 9 @ $26.58 | $239 | −0.0% of holding | −2.7% | −7.7% | 34,162 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-12 | Barton Don | director | Sale | 9 @ $26.36 | $237 | −0.0% of holding | −2.7% | −7.7% | 34,310 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
162 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-29 | Leonard Daniel J | director | Other acquisition | 186 | 62,412 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-29 | Leonard Daniel J | director | Other acquisition | 186 | 62,412 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-20 | Courtney Christopher M. | director | Discretionary | 657 | 244,304 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-20 | Courtney Christopher M. | director | Discretionary | 657 | 244,304 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-27 | Ghan Cathy | officer | Withheld for tax | 87 | 40,983 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-27 | Ghan Cathy | officer | Withheld for tax | 401 | 40,582 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-27 | Ghan Cathy | officer | Withheld for tax | 101 | 40,481 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-27 | Ghan Cathy | officer | Withheld for tax | 89 | 40,392 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-27 | Courtney Christopher M. | director | Award / grant | 5,267 | 243,647 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-27 | Ghan Cathy | officer | Award / grant | 784 | 41,176 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-27 | Dehart Julie | officer | Award / grant | 784 | 21,989 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-27 | Gall Jeffrey A | officer | Withheld for tax | 107 | 39,895 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-27 | Rodrigues Michael J | officer | Withheld for tax | 88 | 76,250 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-27 | Rodrigues Michael J | officer | Withheld for tax | 409 | 75,841 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-27 | Rodrigues Michael J | officer | Withheld for tax | 103 | 75,738 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-27 | Rodrigues Michael J | officer | Withheld for tax | 90 | 75,648 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-27 | Rodrigues Michael J | officer | Award / grant | 784 | 76,432 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-27 | Stephens Gary | officer | Withheld for tax | 120 | 37,534 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-27 | Booke Kimberly D | officer | Withheld for tax | 411 | 18,410 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-27 | Booke Kimberly D | officer | Withheld for tax | 91 | 18,319 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-27 | Booke Kimberly D | officer | Award / grant | 784 | 19,103 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-27 | Dehart Julie | officer | Withheld for tax | 89 | 21,810 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-27 | Gall Jeffrey A | officer | Withheld for tax | 89 | 39,806 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-27 | Gall Jeffrey A | officer | Withheld for tax | 411 | 39,395 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-27 | Gall Jeffrey A | officer | Withheld for tax | 103 | 39,292 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-27 | Gall Jeffrey A | officer | Withheld for tax | 91 | 39,201 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-27 | Gall Jeffrey A | officer | Award / grant | 784 | 39,985 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-27 | Dehart Julie | officer | Withheld for tax | 107 | 21,899 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-27 | Dehart Julie | officer | Withheld for tax | 411 | 21,399 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-27 | Dehart Julie | officer | Withheld for tax | 103 | 21,296 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-27 | Dehart Julie | officer | Withheld for tax | 91 | 21,205 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-27 | Gall Jeffrey A | officer | Withheld for tax | 120 | 40,002 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-27 | Rodrigues Michael J | officer | Withheld for tax | 119 | 76,445 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-27 | Rodrigues Michael J | officer | Withheld for tax | 107 | 76,338 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-27 | STAHL RUSSELL E | officer | Award / grant | 784 | 40,796 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-27 | Nunes Wiiliam D | officer | Withheld for tax | 123 | 15,707 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-27 | Roland Theresa | officer | Award / grant | 784 | 11,609 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-27 | Ghan Cathy | officer | Withheld for tax | 105 | 41,070 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-27 | Stephens Gary | officer | Withheld for tax | 107 | 37,427 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-27 | Stephens Gary | officer | Withheld for tax | 89 | 37,338 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.