Issued 2026-09-16 at $27.96 · now $27.96 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, OESX has typically landed between $22.39 and $36.46 — a range of −19.9% to +30.4% from the issuance price $27.96.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
4,693 overlapping 1 month windows · 2007-12-19 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($27.96) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where OESX has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $27.96 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $27.96 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $27.16 (-2.9%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $24.55–$29.76
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $22.39–$36.46
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2008-01-09 | −55.1% | −58.0% | +0.0% |
| 2008-01-10 | −55.0% | −57.5% | +0.0% |
| 2020-02-18 | −55.0% | −55.0% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2026-07-29 | +177.4% | +0.0% | +177.4% |
| 2026-07-30 | +166.9% | +0.0% | +168.2% |
| 2026-07-28 | +142.9% | −6.9% | +142.9% |
4,693 overlapping windows · 2007-12-19 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-20 | Wishart-Smith Heather L | director | Purchase | 1,054 @ $18.96 | $20K | +10.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 11,405 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-24 | Washlow Sally A. | director | Purchase | 1,780 @ $9.47 | $17K | +3.7% of holding | +5.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 49,259 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-23 | Washlow Sally A. | director | Purchase | 955 @ $9.50 | $9K | +2.1% of holding | +9.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 47,479 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-27 | BRODIN J PER | officer | Purchase | 500 @ $11.07 | $6K | +0.5% of holding | −12.1% | +125.6% | 92,811 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-11-19 | Washlow Sally A. | director | Purchase | 21,166 @ $14.17 | $300K | +83.5% of holding | +4.3% | −47.5% | 46,524 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-02-25 | JENKINS MICHAEL H | director | Purchase | 5,682 @ $0.88 | $5K | +0.5% of holding | −9.9% | −25.2% | 1,246,254 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-02-21 | RICHSTONE ELLEN B | director | Purchase | 20,000 @ $0.91 | $18K | +6.8% of holding | −12.2% | −39.3% | 313,658 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-02-21 | Washlow Sally A. | director | Purchase | 1,000 @ $0.92 | $920 | +2.1% of holding | −12.2% | −39.3% | 49,750 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-02-21 | Washlow Sally A. | director | Purchase | 1,000 @ $0.91 | $912 | ownership Δ n/a | −12.2% | −39.3% | 1,000 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-02-20 | RICHSTONE ELLEN B | director | Purchase | 874 @ $0.88 | $772 | +0.3% of holding | −3.8% | −38.0% | 293,658 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-02-19 | RICHSTONE ELLEN B | director | Purchase | 13,000 @ $0.84 | $11K | +4.6% of holding | −2.7% | −33.2% | 292,784 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-02-18 | RICHSTONE ELLEN B | director | Purchase | 13,000 @ $0.84 | $11K | +4.9% of holding | −4.8% | −29.4% | 279,784 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-02-18 | Otten Anthony L. | director | Purchase | 5,000 @ $0.83 | $4K | +2.4% of holding | −4.8% | −29.4% | 214,412 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-02-14 | RICHSTONE ELLEN B | director | Purchase | 10,000 @ $0.82 | $8K | +3.9% of holding | −4.1% | −31.4% | 266,784 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-02-14 | Wishart-Smith Heather L | director | Purchase | 7,000 @ $0.80 | $6K | +77.6% of holding | −4.1% | −31.4% | 16,025 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2024-06-28 | Washlow Sally A. | director | Purchase | 1,080 @ $1.24 | $1K | +2.1% of holding | −6.8% | −39.8% | 53,580 | Form 4 · filed 243 days after the trade |
| 2024-06-27 | Washlow Sally A. | director | Purchase | 1,200 @ $1.22 | $1K | +2.3% of holding | −16.8% | −46.5% | 52,500 | Form 4 · filed 244 days after the trade |
| 2024-06-24 | Washlow Sally A. | director | Purchase | 1,550 @ $1.42 | $2K | +3.1% of holding | −11.5% | −39.0% | 51,300 | Form 4 · filed 247 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
20 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-11 | BRODIN J PER | officer | Award / grant | 9,000 | 85,263 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-11 | BRODIN J PER | officer | Award / grant | 17,500 | 17,500 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-11 | Green Scott A. | officer | Award / grant | 9,000 | 129,678 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-11 | Green Scott A. | officer | Award / grant | 17,500 | 17,500 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-11 | Otten Anthony L. | director | Award / grant | 2,532 | 25,973 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-11 | RICHSTONE ELLEN B | director | Award / grant | 2,532 | 35,897 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-11 | Shapiro Richard A | director | Award / grant | 2,532 | 9,219 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-11 | Washlow Sally A. | director | Award / grant | 12,000 | 61,259 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-11 | Wishart-Smith Heather L | director | Award / grant | 2,532 | 10,351 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-11 | Washlow Sally A. | director | Award / grant | 25,000 | 25,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-07 | Washlow Sally A. | director | Award / grant | 500,000 | 500,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-07-18 | BRODIN J PER | officer | Award / grant | 125,000 | 125,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-07-18 | Green Scott A. | officer | Award / grant | 125,000 | 125,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-07-01 | Otten Anthony L. | director | Award / grant | 20,000 | 234,412 | Form 4 |
| 2025-07-01 | Shapiro Richard A | director | Award / grant | 20,000 | 66,878 | Form 4 |
| 2025-07-01 | BRODIN J PER | officer | Award / grant | 100,000 | 923,113 | Form 4 |
| 2025-07-01 | Washlow Sally A. | director | Award / grant | 200,000 | 253,580 | Form 4 |
| 2025-07-01 | Wishart-Smith Heather L | director | Award / grant | 20,000 | 78,198 | Form 4 |
| 2025-07-01 | Green Scott A. | officer | Award / grant | 150,000 | 1,372,262 | Form 4 |
| 2025-07-01 | RICHSTONE ELLEN B | director | Award / grant | 20,000 | 333,658 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.