Issued 2026-09-16 at $23.12 · now $23.12 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, ODTX has typically landed between $19.83 and $32.32 — a range of −14.2% to +39.8% from the issuance price $23.12.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
69 overlapping 1 month windows · 2026-05-08 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($23.12) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where ODTX has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $23.12 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $23.12 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $25.13 (+8.7%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $22.08–$28.18
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $19.83–$32.32
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2026-05-11 | −7.2% | −7.2% | +2.8% |
| 2026-06-04 | −6.4% | −6.4% | +12.2% |
| 2026-05-12 | −6.1% | −9.5% | +0.2% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2026-07-23 | +49.3% | +0.0% | +49.3% |
| 2026-07-29 | +43.9% | +0.0% | +46.2% |
| 2026-07-28 | +39.0% | −2.1% | +43.2% |
69 overlapping windows · 2026-05-08 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-11 | TPG GP A, LLC | other | Purchase | 1,388,889 @ $18.00 | $25.0M | +60.4% of holding | −5.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 3,690,146 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-11 | Li Nan (LN) | director | Purchase | 1,111,111 @ $18.00 | $20.0M | +50.0% of holding | −5.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 3,333,516 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-05-11 | SR ONE CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 222,222 @ $18.00 | $4.0M | +13.8% of holding | −5.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,831,383 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-05-11 | SR ONE CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 200,000 @ $18.00 | $3.6M | +24.5% of holding | −5.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,014,851 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-05-11 | SR ONE CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 133,333 @ $18.00 | $2.4M | +30.2% of holding | −5.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 574,314 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-05-11 | Chu Shelley | director | Purchase | 11,111 @ $18.00 | $200K | ownership Δ n/a | −5.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 11,111 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-05-11 | SR ONE CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 1,065 @ $18.00 | $19K | −0.1% of holding | −5.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,609,161 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-05-11 | SR ONE CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 438 @ $18.00 | $8K | −0.1% of holding | −5.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 814,851 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-05-11 | SR ONE CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 277 @ $18.00 | $5K | −0.1% of holding | −5.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 440,981 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-05-08 | Dimension Capital II, L.P. | director | Purchase | 1,111,111 @ $18.00 | $20.0M | +50.0% of holding | +4.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 3,333,516 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-08 | LEIDEN JEFFREY M | director | Purchase | 5,000 @ $20.00 | $100K | +1.9% of holding | +4.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 270,198 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-08 | Haas Jason | director | Purchase | 1,000 @ $20.00 | $20K | +1.6% of holding | +4.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 62,908 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
153 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-11 | TPG GP A, LLC | other | Other acquisition | 2,351 | 420,760 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-11 | LEIDEN JEFFREY M | director | Withheld for tax | 17 | 31,644 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-11 | Opipari Anthony W. | officer | Withheld for tax | 4 | 7,502 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-11 | SR ONE CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Exercise | 764,312 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-11 | SR ONE CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Conversion | 1,899,984 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-11 | SR ONE CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Conversion | 200,000 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-11 | SR ONE CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Conversion | 1,614,650 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-11 | SR ONE CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Exercise | 484,395 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-11 | SR ONE CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Conversion | 4,500,000 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-11 | SR ONE CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Conversion | 2,657,860 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-11 | SR ONE CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Conversion | 474,048 | 474,048 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-11 | SR ONE CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Conversion | 139,366 | 613,414 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-11 | SR ONE CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Conversion | 59,692 | 673,106 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-11 | SR ONE CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Conversion | 61,762 | 734,868 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-11 | SR ONE CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Conversion | 683,817 | 1,418,685 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-11 | SR ONE CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Exercise | 191,541 | 1,610,226 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-11 | SR ONE CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Conversion | 4,606,320 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-11 | SR ONE CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Conversion | 118,512 | 118,512 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-11 | SR ONE CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Conversion | 255,823 | 374,335 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-11 | SR ONE CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Conversion | 204,658 | 204,658 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-11 | SR ONE CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Conversion | 20,582 | 225,240 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-11 | SR ONE CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Conversion | 166,168 | 391,408 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-11 | SR ONE CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Exercise | 49,850 | 441,258 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-11 | SR ONE CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Conversion | 463,106 | 463,106 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-11 | SR ONE CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Conversion | 273,527 | 736,633 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-11 | SR ONE CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Exercise | 78,656 | 815,289 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-11 | SR ONE CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Conversion | 6,644,650 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-11 | Opipari Anthony W. | officer | Option exercise | 541 | 7,506 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-11 | SR ONE CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Exercise | 1,861,211 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-11 | SR ONE CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Conversion | 1,151,580 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-11 | LEIDEN JEFFREY M | director | Conversion | 28,698 | 28,698 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-11 | LEIDEN JEFFREY M | director | Option exercise | 2,963 | 31,661 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-11 | LEIDEN JEFFREY M | director | Conversion | 79,166 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-11 | LEIDEN JEFFREY M | director | Conversion | 100,000 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-11 | LEIDEN JEFFREY M | director | Conversion | 96,002 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-11 | LEIDEN JEFFREY M | director | Option exercise | 28,800 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-11 | SR ONE CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Conversion | 1,299,842 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-11 | SR ONE CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Conversion | 544,162 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-11 | SR ONE CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Conversion | 600,142 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-11 | SR ONE CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Conversion | 2,374,981 | 0 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.