Issued 2026-09-16 at $12.43 · now $12.43 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, OCSL has typically landed between $11.40 and $13.41 — a range of −8.3% to +7.9% from the issuance price $12.43.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
4,573 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-06-12 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($12.43) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where OCSL has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $12.43 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $12.43 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $12.48 (+0.4%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $12.07–$12.89
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $11.4–$13.41
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2020-02-21 | −54.9% | −54.9% | +0.0% |
| 2020-02-24 | −52.6% | −54.0% | +0.0% |
| 2020-02-20 | −52.2% | −52.2% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2020-03-23 | +55.6% | +0.0% | +65.2% |
| 2020-03-24 | +51.2% | +0.0% | +60.2% |
| 2020-03-20 | +49.6% | −6.1% | +55.1% |
4,573 overlapping windows · 2008-06-12 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-12 | Panossian Armen | officer | Purchase | 1,700 @ $12.69 | $22K | +8.2% of holding | +0.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 22,489 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-16 | CALDWELL PHYLLIS R | director | Purchase | 2,500 @ $10.77 | $27K | +11.9% of holding | +13.5% | +4.3% | 23,500 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-16 | Gero Deborah Ann | director | Purchase | 2,000 @ $10.78 | $22K | +8.9% of holding | +13.5% | +4.3% | 24,411 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-15 | CALDWELL PHYLLIS R | director | Purchase | 2,000 @ $13.19 | $26K | +11.1% of holding | −1.9% | −11.9% | 20,000 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-15 | CALDWELL PHYLLIS R | director | Purchase | 975 @ $13.20 | $13K | +4.9% of holding | −1.9% | −11.9% | 21,000 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-15 | CALDWELL PHYLLIS R | director | Purchase | 25 @ $13.19 | $330 | +0.1% of holding | −1.9% | −11.9% | 20,025 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-06-30 | Gero Deborah Ann | director | Purchase | 2,500 @ $13.70 | $34K | +12.6% of holding | −0.9% | −12.9% | 22,411 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-05-15 | Panossian Armen | officer | Purchase | 8,000 @ $14.13 | $113K | +62.6% of holding | −2.4% | −11.7% | 20,789 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-07 | CALDWELL PHYLLIS R | director | Purchase | 2,000 @ $13.32 | $27K | +12.5% of holding | +0.7% | −11.9% | 18,000 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-05-06 | Jacobson Craig A | director | Purchase | 14,910 @ $13.41 | $200K | +26.3% of holding | −1.1% | −13.3% | 71,667 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-02-25 | CALDWELL PHYLLIS R | director | Purchase | 2,500 @ $15.83 | $40K | +18.5% of holding | +6.2% | −17.1% | 16,000 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-02-24 | Pendo Mathew | officer | Purchase | 6,260 @ $15.93 | $100K | +13.5% of holding | +5.2% | −17.1% | 52,596 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-02-24 | Khanna Raghav | officer | Purchase | 6,000 @ $15.95 | $96K | ownership Δ n/a | +5.2% | −17.1% | 6,000 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.