NXRTNexPoint Residential Trust, Inc.Real Estate · REIT - Residentialas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $21.34 · now $21.34 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, NXRT has typically landed between $17.99 and $24.25 — a range of −15.7% to +13.6% from the issuance price $21.34.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

2,870 overlapping 1 month windows · 2015-03-19 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($21.34) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where NXRT has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $21.34 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$17.99worst · -15.7%$24.25best · +13.6%
  • now $21.34 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $21.13 (-1.0%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $19.74–$22.53
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $17.99–$24.25
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 2,870 windows spanning 2015-03-19 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2020-03-05−55.1%−55.1%+0.0%
2020-03-04−54.8%−54.8%+0.0%
2020-03-03−53.8%−53.8%+2.3%
3 best
2020-04-03+36.4%+0.0%+38.6%
2016-06-06+34.8%−0.6%+34.8%
2016-06-07+34.5%+0.0%+35.6%

2,870 overlapping windows · 2015-03-19 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~12 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
45%
−0.7%
n=11
Feb
36%
−1.4%
n=11
Mar
64%
−0.8%
n=11
Apr
58%
+4.6%
n=12
May
75%
+0.4%
n=12
Jun
67%
+4.5%
n=12
Jul
67%
+2.1%
n=12
Aug
58%
+0.7%
n=12
Sep
42%
−2.5%
n=12
Oct
36%
−0.7%
n=11
Nov
82%
+5.9%
n=11
Dec
45%
+0.8%
n=11

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$32$212026-03-20: 2 insider purchases, $54K — McGraner Matt, Richards Paul2026-03-19: 1 insider purchase, $37K — Richards Paul2026-03-11: 1 insider purchase, $26K — McGraner Matt2026-03-09: 2 insider purchases, $79K — Richards Paul, McGraner Matt2026-03-06: 2 insider purchases, $55K — McGraner Matt, Richards Paul2026-03-05: 1 insider purchase, $28K — McGraner Matt2025-12-19: 1 insider sale, $237K — Mitts Brian2025-12-18: 1 insider sale, $701K — Mitts Brian2025-10-31: 1 insider sale, $153K — Mitts Brian2025-08-15: 1 insider sale, $155K — Mitts Brian2025-08: 1 open-market sale, $155K2025-10: 1 open-market sale, $153K2025-12: 2 open-market sales, $938K2026-03: 9 open-market purchases, $278K↑ buys↓ salesofficer McGraner Matt — Purchase on 2026-03-20, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Richards Paul — Purchase on 2026-03-20, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Richards Paul — Purchase on 2026-03-19, filed 5 days after the tradeofficer McGraner Matt — Purchase on 2026-03-11, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Richards Paul — Purchase on 2026-03-09, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer McGraner Matt — Purchase on 2026-03-09, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer McGraner Matt — Purchase on 2026-03-06, filed 3 days after the tradeofficer Richards Paul — Purchase on 2026-03-06, filed 3 days after the tradeofficer McGraner Matt — Purchase on 2026-03-05, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Mitts Brian — Sale on 2025-12-19, filed 3 days after the tradedirector Mitts Brian — Sale on 2025-12-18, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Mitts Brian — Sale on 2025-10-31, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Mitts Brian — Sale on 2025-08-15, filed 20 days after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-03-20McGraner MattofficerPurchase2,000 @ $24.37$49K+0.6% of holding−1.1%not yet — horizon still open331,334Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-03-20Richards PaulofficerPurchase200 @ $24.11$5K+0.7% of holding−1.1%not yet — horizon still open30,559Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-03-19Richards PaulofficerPurchase1,500 @ $24.81$37K+5.2% of holding+3.2%not yet — horizon still open30,359Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2026-03-11McGraner MattofficerPurchase1,000 @ $26.14$26K+0.3% of holding−1.4%−23.4%316,821Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-03-09Richards PaulofficerPurchase2,000 @ $26.34$53K+7.6% of holding−4.8%−23.4%28,186Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-03-09McGraner MattofficerPurchase1,000 @ $26.39$26K+0.3% of holding−4.8%−23.4%315,821Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-03-06McGraner MattofficerPurchase1,000 @ $27.36$27K+0.3% of holding−6.8%−24.9%314,821Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-03-06Richards PaulofficerPurchase1,000 @ $27.33$27K+4.0% of holding−6.8%−24.9%26,186Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-03-05McGraner MattofficerPurchase1,000 @ $27.79$28K+0.3% of holding−8.5%−26.1%313,821Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-12-19Mitts BriandirectorSale8,452 @ $28.05$237K−13.9% of holding+6.5%−6.2%52,448Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-12-18Mitts BriandirectorSale24,296 @ $28.85$701K−100.0% of holding+6.6%−9.4%0Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-10-31Mitts BriandirectorSale5,000 @ $30.52$153K−7.6% of holding+2.0%−6.8%60,900Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-08-15Mitts BriandirectorSale5,000 @ $30.92$155K−7.1% of holding+2.7%−6.3%65,900Form 4 · filed 20 days after the trade
2025-06-25Richards PaulofficerPurchase5,000 @ $32.92$165K+25.4% of holding−1.0%−21.4%24,689Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-05-23Richards PaulofficerPurchase1,000 @ $33.18$33K+5.3% of holding−5.8%−16.5%19,869Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-05-07Mitts BriandirectorSale2,500 @ $37.55$94K−3.4% of holding−16.7%−35.6%70,900Form 4 · filed 120 days after the trade
2025-04-07Richards PaulofficerPurchase5,014 @ $33.10$166K+39.5% of holding+2.0%−34.8%17,693Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-04-07Richards PaulofficerPurchase800 @ $34.14$27K+4.5% of holding+2.0%−34.8%18,493Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

270 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-05-22McGraner MattofficerWithheld for tax8,242350,825Form 4
2026-05-22Richards PaulofficerWithheld for tax1,02432,103Form 4
2026-05-22Sauter Dennis Charles JrofficerWithheld for tax55823,404Form 4
2026-05-22DONDERO JAMES DdirectorOption exercise19,57778,306Form 4
2026-05-22Richards PaulofficerOption exercise2,1438,572Form 4
2026-05-22Swain CaroldirectorOption exercise3,4290Form 4
2026-05-22McGraner MattofficerOption exercise19,57778,306Form 4
2026-05-22Sauter Dennis Charles JrofficerOption exercise2,1438,572Form 4
2026-05-22Constantino Edward N.directorOption exercise3,4290Form 4
2026-05-22KAVANAUGH SCOTT FdirectorOption exercise3,4290Form 4
2026-05-22Mitts BriandirectorOption exercise3,4290Form 4
2026-05-22LAFFER ARTHUR BdirectorOption exercise3,4290Form 4
2026-05-22Wood Catherine D.directorOption exercise3,4290Form 4
2026-05-22Mitts BriandirectorDisposition1,71460,289Form 4
2026-05-22Constantino Edward N.directorOption exercise3,42949,756Form 4
2026-05-22Constantino Edward N.directorDisposition1,71448,042Form 4
2026-05-22Wood Catherine D.directorOption exercise3,42916,903Form 4
2026-05-22LAFFER ARTHUR BdirectorOption exercise3,42924,081Form 4
2026-05-22Swain CaroldirectorOption exercise3,42910,340Form 4
2026-05-22Swain CaroldirectorDisposition1,7148,626Form 4
2026-05-22KAVANAUGH SCOTT FdirectorOption exercise3,42933,792Form 4
2026-05-22Richards PaulofficerOption exercise2,14333,127Form 4
2026-05-22Sauter Dennis Charles JrofficerOption exercise2,14323,962Form 4
2026-05-22Swain CaroldirectorOption exercise3,42910,340Form 4
2026-05-22Swain CaroldirectorDisposition1,7148,626Form 4
2026-05-22LAFFER ARTHUR BdirectorOption exercise3,42924,081Form 4
2026-05-22Wood Catherine D.directorOption exercise3,42916,903Form 4
2026-05-22DONDERO JAMES DdirectorOption exercise19,577732,285Form 4
2026-05-22KAVANAUGH SCOTT FdirectorOption exercise3,42933,792Form 4
2026-05-22Constantino Edward N.directorOption exercise3,42949,756Form 4
2026-05-22Constantino Edward N.directorDisposition1,71448,042Form 4
2026-05-22McGraner MattofficerOption exercise19,577359,067Form 4
2026-05-22Mitts BriandirectorOption exercise3,42962,003Form 4
2026-05-22Mitts BriandirectorDisposition1,71460,289Form 4
2026-05-22McGraner MattofficerOption exercise19,577359,067Form 4
2026-05-22DONDERO JAMES DdirectorOption exercise19,577732,285Form 4
2026-05-22Richards PaulofficerOption exercise2,14333,127Form 4
2026-05-22Sauter Dennis Charles JrofficerOption exercise2,14323,962Form 4
2026-05-22Mitts BriandirectorOption exercise3,42962,003Form 4
2026-04-02Mitts BriandirectorAward / grant4,8004,800Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.