NXDTNexPoint Diversified Real Estate TrustReal Estate · REIT - Diversifiedas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $5.33 · now $5.33 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, NXDT has typically landed between $4.40 and $6.52 — a range of −17.4% to +22.3% from the issuance price $5.33.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

5,002 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($5.33) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where NXDT has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $5.33 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$4.4worst · -17.4%$6.52best · +22.3%
  • now $5.33 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $5.24 (-1.6%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $4.82–$5.67
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $4.4–$6.52
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 5,002 windows spanning 2006-09-26 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2020-02-18−63.7%−63.7%+0.4%
2020-02-21−58.8%−63.7%+0.0%
2020-02-24−55.3%−63.0%+0.0%
3 best
2015-03-13+187.9%+0.0%+187.9%
2015-03-24+185.8%+0.0%+187.8%
2015-03-16+184.7%−0.3%+184.7%

5,002 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
65%
+2.7%
n=20
Feb
45%
−0.4%
n=20
Mar
50%
−2.9%
n=20
Apr
70%
+11.8%
n=20
May
55%
+1.2%
n=20
Jun
70%
+2.0%
n=20
Jul
40%
−1.2%
n=20
Aug
50%
−0.2%
n=20
Sep
45%
−2.4%
n=20
Oct
50%
−0.9%
n=20
Nov
65%
+0.4%
n=20
Dec
55%
+1.5%
n=20

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$6$22026-05-20: 1 insider purchase, $263K — NORRIS DUSTIN DAVID2025-12-18: 1 insider sale, $60K — Mitts Brian2025-12-05: 2 insider purchases, $28K — LAFFER ARTHUR B …2025-12-04: 1 insider purchase, $14K — LAFFER ARTHUR B2025-12-01: 1 insider purchase, $14K — LAFFER ARTHUR B2025-11-19: 1 insider purchase, $14K — Richards Paul2025-08-15: 1 insider sale, $155K — Mitts Brian2025-08: 1 open-market sale, $155K2025-11: 1 open-market purchase, $14K2025-12: 4 open-market purchases, $56K2025-12: 1 open-market sale, $60K2026-05: 1 open-market purchase, $263K↑ buys↓ salesofficer NORRIS DUSTIN DAVID — Purchase on 2026-05-20, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Mitts Brian — Sale on 2025-12-18, filed 4 days after the tradedirector LAFFER ARTHUR B — Purchase on 2025-12-05, filed 3 days after the tradedirector LAFFER ARTHUR B — Purchase on 2025-12-05, filed 3 days after the tradedirector LAFFER ARTHUR B — Purchase on 2025-12-04, filed 4 days after the tradedirector LAFFER ARTHUR B — Purchase on 2025-12-01, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Richards Paul — Purchase on 2025-11-19, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Mitts Brian — Sale on 2025-08-15, filed 4 days after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-05-20NORRIS DUSTIN DAVIDofficerPurchase53,663 @ $4.90$263K+6.6% of holding−7.1%not yet — horizon still open864,586Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-12-18Mitts BriandirectorSale14,449 @ $4.18$60K−100.0% of holding+2.1%+13.0%0Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-12-05LAFFER ARTHUR BdirectorPurchase4,886 @ $2.87$14K+4.3% of holding+21.3%+84.8%117,793Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-12-05LAFFER ARTHUR BdirectorPurchase4,895 @ $2.86$14K+4.5% of holding+21.3%+84.8%114,606Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-12-04LAFFER ARTHUR BdirectorPurchase5,271 @ $2.66$14K+4.9% of holding+50.6%+90.2%112,907Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-12-01LAFFER ARTHUR BdirectorPurchase5,101 @ $2.74$14K+5.0% of holding+38.5%+91.6%107,636Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-11-19Richards PaulofficerPurchase5,000 @ $2.78$14K+4.4% of holding+40.3%+73.9%119,820Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-08-15Mitts BriandirectorSale5,000 @ $30.92$155K−7.1% of holding−6.2%+17.2%65,900Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-07-09LAFFER ARTHUR BdirectorPurchase5,250 @ $4.80$25K+5.7% of holding−4.8%−31.1%97,237Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-07-08LAFFER ARTHUR BdirectorPurchase5,250 @ $4.88$26K+6.1% of holding−5.2%−17.7%91,987Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-07-07LAFFER ARTHUR BdirectorPurchase5,250 @ $4.63$24K+6.4% of holding−2.7%−15.2%86,737Form 4 · filed same day
2025-07-02LAFFER ARTHUR BdirectorPurchase5,000 @ $4.67$23K+6.5% of holding−6.9%−20.8%81,487Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2025-06-26LAFFER ARTHUR BdirectorPurchase5,750 @ $4.20$24K+8.1% of holding+2.6%−15.4%76,487Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-06-25LAFFER ARTHUR BdirectorPurchase5,500 @ $4.14$23K+8.4% of holding+13.2%−12.5%70,737Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-06-06LAFFER ARTHUR BdirectorPurchase6,000 @ $3.92$24K+10.1% of holding+14.6%−37.1%65,237Form 4 · filed same day
2025-06-04LAFFER ARTHUR BdirectorPurchase4,400 @ $3.83$17K+8.0% of holding+15.6%−35.5%59,237Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-05-27NORRIS DUSTIN DAVIDofficerPurchase75,600 @ $3.64$275K+11.8% of holding+12.8%−31.6%715,088Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-05-23NORRIS DUSTIN DAVIDofficerPurchase20,000 @ $3.40$68K+3.2% of holding+15.7%−27.5%639,488Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2025-05-23Richards PaulofficerPurchase4,214 @ $3.34$14K+4.1% of holding+15.7%−27.5%106,773Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-05-21NORRIS DUSTIN DAVIDofficerPurchase77,625 @ $3.44$267K+14.3% of holding+9.2%−31.2%619,461Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-05-20NORRIS DUSTIN DAVIDofficerPurchase46,000 @ $3.53$162K+9.3% of holding+10.5%−19.7%541,836Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-05-07Mitts BriandirectorSale2,500 @ $37.55$94K−3.4% of holding+12.9%−24.2%70,900Form 4 · filed 104 days after the trade
2025-04-08DONDERO JAMES DdirectorPurchase100,000 @ $4.08$408K+35.3% of holding−28.1%−43.2%383,477Form 4 · filed 6 days after the trade
2025-04-07NORRIS DUSTIN DAVIDofficerPurchase300,000 @ $3.53$1.1M+153.2% of holding−14.6%−30.0%495,836Form 4 · filed same day
2025-04-07LAFFER ARTHUR BdirectorPurchase26,900 @ $3.24$87K+96.3% of holding−14.6%−30.0%54,837Form 4 · filed same day
2025-04-04Richards PaulofficerPurchase8,500 @ $3.46$29K+9.3% of holding−9.9%−24.5%100,330Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-04-03Richards PaulofficerPurchase58,500 @ $3.77$221K+175.5% of holding−8.9%−21.5%91,830Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-04-03NORRIS DUSTIN DAVIDofficerPurchase54,000 @ $3.85$208K+41.7% of holding−8.9%−21.5%183,399Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

272 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-06-10McGraner MattofficerWithheld for tax15,849338,420Form 4
2026-06-10Sauter Dennis Charles JrofficerWithheld for tax3,01415,522Form 4
2026-06-10Richards PaulofficerWithheld for tax3,014142,601Form 4
2026-06-10NORRIS DUSTIN DAVIDofficerWithheld for tax1,973869,858Form 4
2026-06-10LAFFER ARTHUR BdirectorOption exercise4,8300Form 4
2026-06-10NORRIS DUSTIN DAVIDofficerOption exercise7,24521,735Form 4
2026-06-10Mitts BriandirectorOption exercise4,8300Form 4
2026-06-10Richards PaulofficerOption exercise6,03618,114Form 4
2026-06-10Sauter Dennis Charles JrofficerOption exercise6,03618,114Form 4
2026-06-10McGraner MattofficerOption exercise6,036110,076Form 4
2026-06-10Constantino Edward N.directorOption exercise4,8300Form 4
2026-06-10Swain CaroldirectorOption exercise4,8300Form 4
2026-06-10KAVANAUGH SCOTT FdirectorOption exercise4,8300Form 4
2026-06-10DONDERO JAMES DdirectorOption exercise36,692110,076Form 4
2026-06-10Wood Catherine D.directorAward / grant4,8300Form 4
2026-06-10McGraner MattofficerOption exercise36,692354,269Form 4
2026-06-10NORRIS DUSTIN DAVIDofficerOption exercise7,245871,831Form 4
2026-06-10Richards PaulofficerOption exercise6,036145,615Form 4
2026-06-10Sauter Dennis Charles JrofficerOption exercise6,03618,536Form 4
2026-06-10Swain CaroldirectorOption exercise4,83030,612Form 4
2026-06-10Swain CaroldirectorDisposition2,41528,197Form 4
2026-06-10KAVANAUGH SCOTT FdirectorOption exercise4,83026,163Form 4
2026-06-10Mitts BriandirectorOption exercise4,83029,046Form 4
2026-06-10Mitts BriandirectorDisposition2,41526,631Form 4
2026-06-10Mitts BriandirectorOption exercise4,83029,046Form 4
2026-06-10Mitts BriandirectorDisposition2,41526,631Form 4
2026-06-10KAVANAUGH SCOTT FdirectorOption exercise4,83026,163Form 4
2026-06-10Constantino Edward N.directorOption exercise4,83043,601Form 4
2026-06-10Constantino Edward N.directorDisposition2,41541,186Form 4
2026-06-10DONDERO JAMES DdirectorOption exercise36,6926,046,963Form 4
2026-06-10LAFFER ARTHUR BdirectorOption exercise4,830133,466Form 4
2026-06-10McGraner MattofficerOption exercise36,692354,269Form 4
2026-06-10Constantino Edward N.directorOption exercise4,83043,601Form 4
2026-06-10Constantino Edward N.directorDisposition2,41541,186Form 4
2026-06-10DONDERO JAMES DdirectorOption exercise36,6926,046,963Form 4
2026-06-10LAFFER ARTHUR BdirectorOption exercise4,830133,466Form 4
2026-06-10Wood Catherine D.directorOption exercise4,83053,109Form 4
2026-06-10NORRIS DUSTIN DAVIDofficerOption exercise7,245871,831Form 4
2026-06-10Richards PaulofficerOption exercise6,036145,615Form 4
2026-06-10Sauter Dennis Charles JrofficerOption exercise6,03618,536Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.