Issued 2026-09-16 at $102.35 · now $102.35 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, NWPX has typically landed between $89.20 and $124.85 — a range of −12.8% to +22.0% from the issuance price $102.35.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
5,003 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($102.35) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where NWPX has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $102.35 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $102.35 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $104.57 (+2.2%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $97.15–$112
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $89.2–$124.85
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2008-09-26 | −53.0% | −53.0% | +0.0% |
| 2008-09-25 | −50.0% | −50.0% | +0.0% |
| 2008-09-24 | −48.0% | −48.0% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2008-12-01 | +77.8% | +0.0% | +81.1% |
| 2008-12-04 | +69.6% | +0.0% | +72.5% |
| 2008-12-03 | +69.4% | −1.8% | +69.4% |
5,003 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-14 | Wilkins Aaron | officer | Sale | 1,950 @ $100.68 | $196K | −8.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 22,448 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-14 | LARSON KEITH R | director | Sale | 1,000 @ $101.12 | $101K | −5.7% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 16,633 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-09 | FRANSON MICHAEL C | director | Sale | 3,500 @ $105.30 | $369K | −18.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 15,924 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-08 | ROMAN RICHARD A | director | Sale | 4,000 @ $105.72 | $423K | −11.6% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 30,340 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-08 | Wilkins Aaron | officer | Sale | 1,500 @ $106.52 | $160K | −5.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 24,398 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-08 | LARSON KEITH R | director | Sale | 1,000 @ $105.87 | $106K | −5.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 17,633 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-03 | LARSON KEITH R | director | Sale | 4 @ $110.78 | $443 | −0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 18,633 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-02 | LARSON KEITH R | director | Sale | 74 @ $110.26 | $8K | −0.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 18,637 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-31 | MONTROSS SCOTT J | officer | Sale | 1,227 @ $110.58 | $136K | −1.7% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 69,902 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-31 | LARSON KEITH R | director | Sale | 1,172 @ $110.04 | $129K | −5.9% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 18,711 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-26 | Wray Michael | officer | Sale | 4,500 @ $110.94 | $499K | −15.9% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 23,886 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-24 | MONTROSS SCOTT J | officer | Sale | 2,500 @ $109.37 | $273K | −3.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 71,129 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-24 | LARSON KEITH R | director | Sale | 1,250 @ $110.32 | $138K | −5.9% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 19,883 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-17 | MONTROSS SCOTT J | officer | Sale | 2,500 @ $115.13 | $288K | −3.3% of holding | −10.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 73,629 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-17 | LARSON KEITH R | director | Sale | 1,250 @ $115.86 | $145K | −5.6% of holding | −10.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 21,133 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-10 | MONTROSS SCOTT J | officer | Sale | 2,500 @ $118.74 | $297K | −3.2% of holding | −5.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 76,129 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-10 | Wilkins Aaron | officer | Sale | 428 @ $120.00 | $51K | −1.6% of holding | −5.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 25,898 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-04 | MONTROSS SCOTT J | officer | Sale | 2,500 @ $128.62 | $322K | −3.1% of holding | −12.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 78,629 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-30 | MONTROSS SCOTT J | officer | Sale | 2,056 @ $76.85 | $158K | −3.1% of holding | +1.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 63,921 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-20 | Brittain Miles | officer | Sale | 3,300 @ $70.89 | $234K | −14.2% of holding | +6.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 20,006 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-16 | Julian Amanda | director | Sale | 3,473 @ $71.98 | $250K | −25.0% of holding | +10.9% | +26.0% | 10,417 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-16 | MONTROSS SCOTT J | officer | Sale | 2,500 @ $72.48 | $181K | −3.7% of holding | +10.9% | +26.0% | 65,977 | Form 4 · filed 7 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-16 | MONTROSS SCOTT J | officer | Sale | 2,500 @ $71.44 | $179K | −3.5% of holding | +10.9% | +26.0% | 68,477 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-12 | Brittain Miles | officer | Sale | 4,000 @ $71.01 | $284K | −14.6% of holding | +16.6% | +27.5% | 23,306 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-09 | MONTROSS SCOTT J | officer | Sale | 2,500 @ $72.32 | $181K | −3.4% of holding | +9.9% | +29.1% | 70,977 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-04 | Kendrick Megan A. | officer | Sale | 4,500 @ $80.59 | $363K | −39.1% of holding | +1.3% | +21.9% | 6,996 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-15 | Wilkins Aaron | officer | Sale | 35 @ $63.50 | $2K | −0.2% of holding | +7.9% | +110.9% | 18,477 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-09 | FRANSON MICHAEL C | director | Sale | 5,506 @ $60.17 | $331K | −22.9% of holding | +8.7% | +108.1% | 18,525 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-09 | Wilkins Aaron | officer | Sale | 1,241 @ $60.10 | $75K | −6.3% of holding | +8.7% | +108.1% | 18,512 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-08 | Wilkins Aaron | officer | Sale | 5,009 @ $59.90 | $300K | −20.2% of holding | +5.2% | +97.7% | 19,753 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-24 | Brittain Miles | officer | Sale | 4,000 @ $56.41 | $226K | −13.5% of holding | +10.1% | +97.8% | 25,725 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-14 | Brittain Miles | officer | Sale | 4,000 @ $56.76 | $227K | −11.9% of holding | +8.7% | +77.7% | 29,725 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-11 | MONTROSS SCOTT J | officer | Sale | 3,210 @ $57.18 | $184K | −4.5% of holding | +8.6% | +87.6% | 68,781 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-11 | MONTROSS SCOTT J | officer | Sale | 2,500 @ $57.23 | $143K | −3.4% of holding | +8.6% | +87.6% | 71,991 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-11 | MONTROSS SCOTT J | officer | Sale | 1,500 @ $57.34 | $86K | −2.0% of holding | +8.6% | +87.6% | 74,491 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-11 | MONTROSS SCOTT J | officer | Sale | 1,000 @ $57.53 | $58K | −1.3% of holding | +8.6% | +87.6% | 75,991 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-02 | Wilkins Aaron | officer | Sale | 2,000 @ $52.24 | $104K | −7.5% of holding | −1.6% | +51.6% | 24,762 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-29 | Wilkins Aaron | officer | Sale | 500 @ $54.02 | $27K | −1.8% of holding | −3.6% | +46.8% | 26,762 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-22 | Wilkins Aaron | officer | Sale | 2,500 @ $50.89 | $127K | −8.4% of holding | −2.7% | +31.7% | 27,262 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-11 | Kendrick Megan A. | officer | Sale | 3,500 @ $50.00 | $175K | −24.9% of holding | +1.7% | +42.8% | 10,560 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
260 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-14 | ROMAN RICHARD A | director | Gift | 1,000 | 29,340 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-10 | FRANSON MICHAEL C | director | Gift | 100 | 15,824 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-27 | Wray Michael | officer | Gift | 600 | 23,286 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | Julian Amanda | director | Award / grant | 899 | 11,316 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | ROMAN RICHARD A | director | Award / grant | 899 | 34,340 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | LARSON KEITH R | director | Award / grant | 899 | 22,383 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | Lockridge Irma | director | Award / grant | 899 | 8,688 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | Paschal John | director | Award / grant | 899 | 17,098 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | FRANSON MICHAEL C | director | Award / grant | 899 | 19,424 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | MONTROSS SCOTT J | officer | Withheld for tax | 3,966 | 76,141 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | MONTROSS SCOTT J | officer | Withheld for tax | 3,962 | 70,028 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | MONTROSS SCOTT J | officer | Withheld for tax | 3,236 | 81,129 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | Wilkins Aaron | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,478 | 22,338 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | Brittain Miles | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,478 | 22,286 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | Wilkins Aaron | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,474 | 24,612 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | Brittain Miles | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,474 | 24,560 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | Stokes Eric | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,327 | 34,245 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | Wray Michael | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,280 | 26,978 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | Stokes Eric | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,280 | 36,219 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | Wray Michael | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,267 | 25,004 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | Wilkins Aaron | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,112 | 26,326 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | Brittain Miles | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,112 | 26,274 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | Stokes Eric | officer | Withheld for tax | 912 | 37,627 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | Wray Michael | officer | Withheld for tax | 912 | 28,386 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | Kendrick Megan A. | officer | Withheld for tax | 875 | 8,346 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | Kendrick Megan A. | officer | Withheld for tax | 845 | 9,649 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | Kendrick Megan A. | officer | Withheld for tax | 602 | 10,578 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | Tanguis Jesus | officer | Withheld for tax | 358 | 2,380 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | Tanguis Jesus | officer | Withheld for tax | 245 | 2,986 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | Brittain Miles | officer | Option exercise | 2,593 | 8,073 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | Kendrick Megan A. | officer | Option exercise | 1,531 | 11,180 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | Kendrick Megan A. | officer | Option exercise | 1,902 | 10,109 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | Kendrick Megan A. | officer | Option exercise | 1,652 | 8,457 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | Wray Michael | officer | Option exercise | 3,221 | 26,271 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | Wray Michael | officer | Option exercise | 3,254 | 28,258 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | Wray Michael | officer | Option exercise | 2,320 | 29,298 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | Wray Michael | officer | Option exercise | 2,753 | 15,999 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | Wray Michael | officer | Option exercise | 2,503 | 13,496 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | Wray Michael | officer | Option exercise | 2,128 | 11,368 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | Stokes Eric | officer | Option exercise | 2,320 | 38,539 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.