Issued 2026-09-25 at $5.74 · now $5.74 (2026-09-25, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-25 close, NUVB has typically landed between $4.21 and $7.75 — a range of −26.6% to +35.1% from the issuance price $5.74.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
1,509 overlapping 1 month windows · 2020-08-24 – 2026-08-26 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Base rate up 53.7% (90% CI 51.5–55.9%, ≈1,391 obs). Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-25 issuance close ($5.74) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-26, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where NUVB has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-25 close of $5.74 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $5.74 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $5.72 (-0.4%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $5–$6.44
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $4.21–$7.75
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 1,509 windows spanning 2020-08-24 to 2026-09-25. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2025-12-26 | −43.6% | −43.6% | +0.0% |
| 2025-12-22 | −41.4% | −41.4% | +0.0% |
| 2025-12-30 | −41.4% | −41.4% | +0.2% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2024-02-27 | +99.5% | −6.0% | +99.5% |
| 2024-02-29 | +97.3% | +0.0% | +112.3% |
| 2025-11-18 | +87.3% | +0.0% | +87.3% |
1,509 overlapping windows · 2020-08-24 – 2026-09-25 · not cherry-picked
Pending catalysts
- March 2027 — Trial primary completion: Phase 1/Phase PHASE2 primary completion: Safety and Efficacy Study of NUV-1511 in Adult Patients With Advanced Solid Tumors (source, as of 2026-08-14)
- 2028-12-01 — Trial primary completion: Phase 3 primary completion: SIGMA (Safusidenib in IDH1 Mutant Glioma Maintenance) (source, as of 2026-08-14)
- January 2029 — Trial primary completion: Phase 3 primary completion: A Phase III Study Comparing Taletrectinib With Standard Therapy in ROS1 Positive Locally Advanced or Metastatic Non-small Cell Lung Cancer Patients (source, as of 2026-08-14)
- 2030-08-30 — Trial primary completion: Phase 3 primary completion: Phase 3 Study of Taletrectinib vs Placebo as an Adjuvant Therapy in ROS1 Positive NSCLC (TRUST-IV) (source, as of 2026-08-14)
Public, scheduled events — dated attention, not a prediction of the outcome. See the FDA catalysts page for the historical base rate.
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~7 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
33%
−10.0%
n=6
Feb
33%
−4.5%
n=6
Mar
50%
+8.4%
n=6
Apr
50%
+1.1%
n=6
May
67%
+1.5%
n=6
Jun
33%
−4.4%
n=6
Jul
67%
+7.4%
n=6
Aug
67%
+2.0%
n=6
Sep
43%
−5.2%
n=7
Oct
17%
−1.7%
n=6
Nov
50%
+16.3%
n=6
Dec
67%
+6.1%
n=6
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-19 | Hattersley Gary | officer | Sale | 100,000 @ $7.09 | $709K | −100.0% of holding | −18.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-23 | Markel Stacy | officer | Sale | 125,000 @ $6.03 | $753K | −79.3% of holding | +6.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 32,591 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-23 | Wentworth Kerry | officer | Sale | 63,000 @ $6.02 | $379K | −54.3% of holding | +6.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 53,000 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-23 | Sauvage Philippe | officer | Sale | 47,668 @ $6.01 | $286K | −79.0% of holding | +6.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 12,673 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-09 | Mashal Robert | director | Purchase | 25,000 @ $4.73 | $118K | +12.5% of holding | +15.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 225,000 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-17 | Liu Dongfang | officer | Sale | 50,000 @ $5.02 | $251K | −73.5% of holding | −21.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 18,000 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-17 | Wentworth Kerry | officer | Sale | 36,750 @ $5.01 | $184K | −40.9% of holding | −21.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 53,000 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-06 | Wentworth Kerry | officer | Sale | 200,000 @ $4.52 | $904K | −79.1% of holding | −1.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 53,000 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-01 | Liu Dongfang | officer | Sale | 150,000 @ $7.82 | $1.2M | −89.3% of holding | +13.2% | −51.6% | 18,000 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-26 | Liu Dongfang | officer | Sale | 10,000 @ $8.00 | $80K | −35.7% of holding | +11.6% | −50.3% | 18,000 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-11-25 | Liu Dongfang | officer | Sale | 10,000 @ $7.50 | $75K | −35.7% of holding | +16.7% | −52.0% | 18,000 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-20 | Hattersley Gary | officer | Sale | 300,000 @ $7.23 | $2.2M | −100.0% of holding | +30.8% | −48.8% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-20 | Hattersley Gary | officer | Sale | 69,051 @ $7.23 | $499K | −100.0% of holding | +30.8% | −48.8% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-20 | Liu Dongfang | officer | Sale | 20,000 @ $7.00 | $140K | −52.6% of holding | +30.8% | −48.8% | 18,000 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-19 | Hanley David C. | officer | Sale | 200,000 @ $7.14 | $1.4M | −89.3% of holding | +29.0% | −47.2% | 24,000 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-19 | Liu Dongfang | officer | Sale | 15,000 @ $5.10 | $77K | −45.5% of holding | +29.0% | −47.2% | 18,000 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-11-17 | Liu Dongfang | officer | Sale | 15,000 @ $4.76 | $71K | −50.0% of holding | +81.6% | −15.4% | 15,000 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-27 | Hattersley Gary | officer | Sale | 100,000 @ $5.02 | $502K | −100.0% of holding | +57.8% | −18.3% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-18 | Markel Stacy | officer | Purchase | 10,000 @ $1.71 | $17K | +51.0% of holding | +25.7% | +363.0% | 29,591 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-06-17 | Sauvage Philippe | officer | Purchase | 4,000 @ $1.79 | $7K | +67.8% of holding | +29.2% | +392.2% | 9,902 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-06-16 | Hung David | director | Purchase | 500,000 @ $1.79 | $894K | +0.9% of holding | +15.9% | +343.9% | 59,281,054 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-16 | Sjogren Colleen | officer | Purchase | 50,000 @ $1.81 | $90K | +161.3% of holding | +15.9% | +343.9% | 81,000 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-16 | Wentworth Kerry | officer | Purchase | 26,000 @ $1.79 | $47K | ownership Δ n/a | +15.9% | +343.9% | 26,000 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-16 | Wentworth Kerry | officer | Purchase | 24,000 @ $1.80 | $43K | +92.3% of holding | +15.9% | +343.9% | 50,000 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-16 | Sauvage Philippe | officer | Purchase | 3,300 @ $1.83 | $6K | +126.8% of holding | +15.9% | +343.9% | 5,902 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-02 | Liu Dongfang | officer | Sale | 20,000 @ $2.50 | $50K | −62.5% of holding | −5.6% | +91.2% | 12,000 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-04-07 | Hung David | director | Purchase | 300,000 @ $1.63 | $488K | +0.5% of holding | +2.1% | +69.9% | 58,781,054 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-04-04 | Hung David | director | Purchase | 200,000 @ $1.66 | $333K | +0.3% of holding | +15.3% | +93.4% | 58,481,054 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-04-01 | Mashal Robert | director | Purchase | 98,900 @ $1.67 | $165K | +97.8% of holding | +30.2% | +91.6% | 200,000 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-04-01 | Mashal Robert | director | Purchase | 1,100 @ $1.67 | $2K | +1.1% of holding | +30.2% | +91.6% | 101,100 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2024-11-11 | Wang Junyuan Jerry | director | Sale | 56,361 @ $2.89 | $163K | −1.4% of holding | −12.4% | −24.8% | 3,866,228 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2024-10-08 | Mashal Robert | director | Purchase | 99,981 @ $2.20 | $220K | +526215.8% of holding | +10.8% | −13.6% | 100,000 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2024-10-08 | Mashal Robert | director | Purchase | 19 @ $2.19 | $42 | ownership Δ n/a | +10.8% | −13.6% | 19 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2024-06-25 | Cui Xiangmin | director | Purchase | 277,895 @ $2.97 | $825K | +12.8% of holding | +22.6% | −22.0% | 2,453,131 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2024-06-24 | Cui Xiangmin | director | Purchase | 336,874 @ $2.98 | $1.0M | +18.3% of holding | +20.6% | −20.3% | 2,175,236 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2024-06-21 | Cui Xiangmin | director | Purchase | 75,411 @ $3.00 | $226K | +4.3% of holding | +5.8% | −19.8% | 1,838,362 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2024-06-20 | Cui Xiangmin | director | Purchase | 87,715 @ $2.99 | $262K | +5.2% of holding | +1.6% | −21.7% | 1,762,951 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2024-06-11 | BLICKENSTAFF KIM D | director | Purchase | 172,189 @ $2.90 | $500K | ownership Δ n/a | +16.8% | −17.9% | 172,189 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
142 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-19 | Hattersley Gary | officer | Option exercise | 100,000 | 100,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-19 | Hattersley Gary | officer | Option exercise | 100,000 | 400,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-15 | Sauvage Philippe | officer | Option exercise | 39,999 | 54,130 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-15 | Sauvage Philippe | officer | Option exercise | 1 | 54,131 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-15 | Sauvage Philippe | officer | Option exercise | 39,999 | 662,333 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-15 | Sauvage Philippe | officer | Option exercise | 1 | 499,999 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-23 | Wentworth Kerry | officer | Option exercise | 63,000 | 116,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-23 | Markel Stacy | officer | Option exercise | 90,380 | 122,971 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-23 | Sauvage Philippe | officer | Option exercise | 47,668 | 60,341 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-23 | Markel Stacy | officer | Option exercise | 34,620 | 157,591 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-23 | Markel Stacy | officer | Option exercise | 90,380 | 409,620 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-23 | Wentworth Kerry | officer | Option exercise | 63,000 | 152,250 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-23 | Markel Stacy | officer | Option exercise | 34,620 | 220,190 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-23 | Sauvage Philippe | officer | Option exercise | 47,668 | 702,332 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-21 | Cui Xiangmin | director | Award / grant | 123,397 | 123,397 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-21 | BLICKENSTAFF KIM D | director | Award / grant | 123,397 | 123,397 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-21 | Bazemore Robert B | director | Award / grant | 123,397 | 123,397 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-21 | FALBERG KATHRYN E | director | Award / grant | 123,397 | 123,397 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-21 | Mashal Robert | director | Award / grant | 123,397 | 123,397 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-21 | VERNON W ANTHONY | director | Award / grant | 123,397 | 123,397 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-17 | Wentworth Kerry | officer | Option exercise | 36,750 | 89,750 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-17 | Liu Dongfang | officer | Option exercise | 50,000 | 68,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-17 | Wentworth Kerry | officer | Option exercise | 36,750 | 215,250 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-17 | Liu Dongfang | officer | Option exercise | 50,000 | 430,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-06 | Wentworth Kerry | officer | Option exercise | 100,000 | 253,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-06 | Wentworth Kerry | officer | Option exercise | 100,000 | 153,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-06 | Wentworth Kerry | officer | Option exercise | 100,000 | 400,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-06 | Wentworth Kerry | officer | Option exercise | 100,000 | 300,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-27 | Hattersley Gary | officer | Award / grant | 748,130 | 748,130 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-27 | Makunje Moses | officer | Award / grant | 50,761 | 68,137 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-27 | Makunje Moses | officer | Award / grant | 224,439 | 224,439 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-27 | Hanley David C. | officer | Award / grant | 748,130 | 748,130 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-27 | Liu Dongfang | officer | Award / grant | 748,130 | 748,130 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-27 | Sjogren Colleen | officer | Award / grant | 748,130 | 748,130 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-27 | Sauvage Philippe | officer | Award / grant | 748,130 | 748,130 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-27 | Wentworth Kerry | officer | Award / grant | 748,130 | 748,130 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-27 | Cui Xiangmin | director | Award / grant | 74,813 | 74,813 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-27 | Hung David | director | Award / grant | 1,995,012 | 1,995,012 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-27 | Markel Stacy | officer | Award / grant | 748,130 | 748,130 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-01 | Liu Dongfang | officer | Option exercise | 150,000 | 168,000 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.