NREF · TickerCove

NREFNexPoint Real Estate Finance, Inc.Real Estate · REIT - Mortgageas of 2026-09-16

Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $15.99 · now $15.99 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, NREF has typically landed between $14.04 and $18.14 — a range of −12.2% to +13.5% from the issuance price $15.99.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.

Actual close
Typical path (median)
Middle 50% of outcomes
90% range

1,639 overlapping 1 month windows · 2020-02-07 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($15.99) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

52-week range$15.99 · 66% of range

$11.78 low$18.17 high

Trailing 52 weeks to 2026-09-16 — factual context, not a signal.

Base rate up · monthiClimatology base rate that a US-listed stock rises over a month, with its 90% CI and ≈1,408 effective observations. Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.

53.9%

90% CI 51.7%–56.1%

Distribution · month iiThe price-anchored range: typical move (median), and the p90 downside/upside — 90% of similar periods stayed inside these. Ranges, not a prediction of direction.

+1.9%

typical move · IQR 10.9%

−12.2%worst (p90)+13.5%best (p90)

Insider convictioniOpen-market common-stock purchases by company insiders in the last 90 days (grants and option exercises excluded). Historical tendency, not advice — detail below.

conviction buys

0 open-market sales

Congress disclosuresiRecent disclosed congressional trades for this company. Purchase clusters (≥2 members buying within 90 days) historically preceded a modestly higher forward return (+32 bp/mo in 2022–2026, +45 bp/mo in 2015–2021) — a descriptive tendency, not a forecast input. Detail below.

0 buys · 0 sells · 0 members

cluster tilt persisted, ~halved after 2021

Where NREF has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $15.99 — the range is history, not a prediction.

now $15.99 (+0.0%)
typical $16.29 (+1.9%)
middle 50% $15.43–$17.16
90% range $14.04–$18.14

Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 1,639 windows spanning 2020-02-07 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.

Start	Return	Max drop	Max rise
3 worst
2020-02-24	−65.6%	−65.6%	+0.8%
2020-02-25	−63.0%	−65.7%	+0.6%
2020-02-26	−61.8%	−65.7%	+0.3%
3 best
2020-03-24	+70.9%	+0.0%	+95.6%
2020-05-05	+63.7%	−1.0%	+65.3%
2020-05-04	+63.3%	−2.2%	+63.3%

1,639 overlapping windows · 2020-02-07 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month i

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~7 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.

Jan

50%

+3.0%

n=6

Feb

50%

+2.5%

n=6

Mar

43%

−6.5%

n=7

Apr

57%

+2.3%

n=7

May

71%

+8.2%

n=7

Jun

71%

+2.6%

n=7

Jul

71%

+2.4%

n=7

Aug

57%

+4.2%

n=7

Sep

−6.7%

n=7

Oct

33%

−0.6%

n=6

Nov

100%

+11.3%

n=6

Dec

50%

−4.3%

n=6

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares @ price	Value	Ownership Δ	vs S&P 1m	vs S&P 6m	Owned after	Filing
2025-12-18	Mitts Brian	director	Sale	11,904 @ $14.51	$173K	−100.0% of holding	−0.6%	+1.4%	0	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-09-22	DONDERO JAMES D	director	Purchase	66,000 @ $14.33	$946K	+26.0% of holding	−7.4%	−0.1%	319,490	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-09-22	DONDERO JAMES D	director	Sale	66,000 @ $14.33	$946K	−2.3% of holding	−7.4%	−0.1%	2,797,486	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-04-09	Richards Paul	officer	Purchase	1,000 @ $12.28	$12K	+2.1% of holding	+5.3%	−13.0%	48,831	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

221 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares	Owned after	Filing
2026-04-04	McGraner Matt	officer	Withheld for tax	18,776	318,044	Form 4
2026-04-04	Richards Paul	officer	Withheld for tax	4,044	65,692	Form 4
2026-04-04	Mitts Brian	director	Withheld for tax	2,448	94,914	Form 4
2026-04-04	Sauter Dennis Charles Jr	officer	Withheld for tax	1,229	33,017	Form 4
2026-04-04	DONDERO JAMES D	director	Option exercise	33,284	33,283	Form 4
2026-04-04	Richards Paul	officer	Option exercise	6,894	6,894	Form 4
2026-04-04	Mitts Brian	director	Option exercise	6,837	6,838	Form 4
2026-04-04	McGraner Matt	officer	Option exercise	32,010	32,011	Form 4
2026-04-04	Sauter Dennis Charles Jr	officer	Option exercise	3,238	3,239	Form 4
2026-04-04	DONDERO JAMES D	director	Option exercise	33,284	492,250	Form 4
2026-04-04	Mitts Brian	director	Disposition	1,025	97,362	Form 4
2026-04-04	Mitts Brian	director	Option exercise	6,837	98,387	Form 4
2026-04-04	McGraner Matt	officer	Option exercise	32,010	336,820	Form 4
2026-04-04	DONDERO JAMES D	director	Option exercise	33,284	492,250	Form 4
2026-04-04	Sauter Dennis Charles Jr	officer	Option exercise	3,238	34,246	Form 4
2026-04-04	Richards Paul	officer	Option exercise	6,894	69,736	Form 4
2026-04-04	Sauter Dennis Charles Jr	officer	Option exercise	3,238	34,246	Form 4
2026-04-04	McGraner Matt	officer	Option exercise	32,010	336,820	Form 4
2026-04-04	Mitts Brian	director	Option exercise	6,837	98,387	Form 4
2026-04-04	Richards Paul	officer	Option exercise	6,894	69,736	Form 4
2026-04-04	Mitts Brian	director	Disposition	1,025	97,362	Form 4
2026-04-03	McGraner Matt	officer	Withheld for tax	17,638	304,810	Form 4
2026-04-03	Richards Paul	officer	Withheld for tax	6,825	62,842	Form 4
2026-04-03	Sauter Dennis Charles Jr	officer	Withheld for tax	1,470	31,008	Form 4
2026-04-03	Richards Paul	officer	Option exercise	15,087	45,258	Form 4
2026-04-03	Sauter Dennis Charles Jr	officer	Option exercise	4,311	12,931	Form 4
2026-04-03	Wood Catherine D.	director	Option exercise	5,518	0	Form 4
2026-04-03	McGraner Matt	officer	Option exercise	36,830	73,660	Form 4
2026-04-03	Mitts Brian	director	Option exercise	5,518	0	Form 4
2026-04-03	Swain Carol	director	Option exercise	5,518	0	Form 4
2026-04-03	Constantino Edward N.	director	Option exercise	5,518	0	Form 4
2026-04-03	DONDERO JAMES D	director	Option exercise	36,830	110,489	Form 4
2026-04-03	Mitts Brian	director	Disposition	2,759	91,550	Form 4
2026-04-03	Sauter Dennis Charles Jr	officer	Option exercise	4,311	32,478	Form 4
2026-04-03	Sauter Dennis Charles Jr	officer	Option exercise	4,311	32,478	Form 4
2026-04-03	Mitts Brian	director	Option exercise	5,518	94,309	Form 4
2026-04-03	Wood Catherine D.	director	Option exercise	5,518	30,228	Form 4
2026-04-03	Mitts Brian	director	Option exercise	5,518	94,309	Form 4
2026-04-03	Mitts Brian	director	Disposition	2,759	91,550	Form 4
2026-04-03	Swain Carol	director	Option exercise	5,518	14,322	Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Resolves in i

28d remaining

2026-09-173% elapsed2026-10-15

Logged immutably 2026-09-17; scored automatically on 2026-10-15 — no edits, ever.

Earnings & context analysis

These panels are being prepared. They are generated by multiple language models, checked, and stored before display — never written live for a page view. Until a model panel has been generated and reviewed for a company, nothing is shown here, honestly, rather than a placeholder.

Calibration i

Every forecast is logged when made and scored when the month is up. The record is shown from the day it starts — young and honest.

How scoring works →

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

Reported insider & political trades

Congressional disclosures

Seasonality · by month i