NPCENeuroPace, Inc.Healthcare · Medical - Devicesas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $14.10 · now $14.10 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, NPCE has typically landed between $10.07 and $20.38 — a range of −28.6% to +44.5% from the issuance price $14.10.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

1,336 overlapping 1 month windows · 2021-04-22 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($14.10) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where NPCE has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $14.1 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$10.07worst · -28.6%$20.38best · +44.5%
  • now $14.1 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $13.85 (-1.7%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $12.18–$15.53
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $10.07–$20.38
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 1,336 windows spanning 2021-04-22 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2022-10-19−55.6%−55.6%+0.0%
2022-10-20−54.6%−54.6%+0.0%
2024-05-02−53.5%−53.5%+0.0%
3 best
2022-12-30+210.1%−3.4%+214.1%
2023-01-03+205.6%+0.0%+225.0%
2022-12-27+205.2%−3.7%+205.2%

1,336 overlapping windows · 2021-04-22 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~6 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
60%
+51.4%
n=5
Feb
40%
+1.5%
n=5
Mar
20%
−7.5%
n=5
Apr
40%
+5.5%
n=5
May
17%
−12.4%
n=6
Jun
50%
−4.4%
n=6
Jul
33%
−6.6%
n=6
Aug
67%
+20.4%
n=6
Sep
33%
−6.1%
n=6
Oct
0%
−13.2%
n=5
Nov
60%
+16.3%
n=5
Dec
60%
+1.6%
n=5

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$19$82025-12-15: 1 insider sale, $399K — Morrell Martha2025-12: 1 open-market sale, $399K↑ buys↓ salesofficer Morrell Martha — Sale on 2025-12-15, filed 79 days after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2025-12-15Morrell MarthaofficerSale25,000 @ $15.97$399K−33.3% of holding+7.0%−14.2%49,964Form 4 · filed 79 days after the trade
2025-05-14ORBIMED ADVISORS LLCdirectorSale134,136 @ $15.83$2.1M−3.9% of holding−30.6%−30.4%3,272,199Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-05-14ORBIMED ADVISORS LLCdirectorSale34,000 @ $15.94$542K−1.0% of holding−30.6%−30.4%3,238,199Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-02-21Morrell MarthaofficerSale78,334 @ $13.72$1.1M−48.9% of holding−6.7%−42.9%81,993Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-02-20KCK LTD.tenPercentOwnerSale5,270,845 @ $9.40$49.5M−100.0% of holding−8.2%−44.2%0Form 4 · filed same day
2025-01-30Morrell MarthaofficerSale200 @ $15.00$3K−0.2% of holding−13.3%−40.0%86,762Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-01-29Morrell MarthaofficerSale100 @ $15.00$2K−0.1% of holding−10.6%−47.7%86,962Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-01-24Morrell MarthaofficerSale3,200 @ $15.01$48K−3.5% of holding−3.5%−45.9%87,062Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

181 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-09-03Becker JoeldirectorWithheld for tax1,310138,000Form 4
2026-08-27Becker JoeldirectorWithheld for tax1,126139,310Form 4
2026-08-27Morrell MarthaofficerWithheld for tax35851,692Form 4
2026-06-24Morrell MarthaofficerWithheld for tax33552,050Form 4
2026-06-19Fischer Frank MdirectorAward / grant1,467599,534Form 4
2026-06-19Kumar RakhidirectorAward / grant98923,039Form 4
2026-06-19Geiger UridirectorAward / grant78918,537Form 4
2026-06-05Fischer Frank MdirectorAward / grant2,890598,067Form 4
2026-06-05Fischer Frank MdirectorAward / grant5,3685,368Form 4
2026-06-05Geiger UridirectorAward / grant2,89017,748Form 4
2026-06-05Geiger UridirectorAward / grant5,3685,368Form 4
2026-06-05Huennekens R ScottdirectorAward / grant2,8902,890Form 4
2026-06-05Huennekens R ScottdirectorAward / grant5,3685,368Form 4
2026-06-05Andrade LisadirectorAward / grant2,8902,890Form 4
2026-06-05Kumar RakhidirectorAward / grant5,3685,368Form 4
2026-06-05Ryan ReneedirectorAward / grant2,8902,890Form 4
2026-06-05Ryan ReneedirectorAward / grant5,3685,368Form 4
2026-06-05Kumar RakhidirectorAward / grant2,89022,050Form 4
2026-06-05Andrade LisadirectorAward / grant5,3685,368Form 4
2026-06-03Becker JoeldirectorWithheld for tax1,255140,436Form 4
2026-05-27Becker JoeldirectorWithheld for tax1,126141,691Form 4
2026-05-27Morrell MarthaofficerWithheld for tax35852,385Form 4
2026-05-15Williams Patrick F.directorAward / grant16,82068,670Form 4
2026-05-15Becker JoeldirectorAward / grant45,880142,817Form 4
2026-05-15Becker JoeldirectorAward / grant122,190122,190Form 4
2026-05-15Morrell MarthaofficerAward / grant5,46052,743Form 4
2026-05-15Morrell MarthaofficerAward / grant14,55014,550Form 4
2026-05-15Williams Patrick F.directorAward / grant44,80044,800Form 4
2026-03-24Morrell MarthaofficerWithheld for tax1,34147,283Form 4
2026-03-20Fischer Frank MdirectorAward / grant1,826595,177Form 4
2026-03-20Kumar RakhidirectorAward / grant1,15319,160Form 4
2026-03-20Geiger UridirectorAward / grant91314,858Form 4
2026-03-20LACOB JOSEPHdirectorAward / grant86514,754Form 4
2026-03-03Becker JoeldirectorWithheld for tax5,02396,937Form 4
2026-03-03Morrell MarthaofficerWithheld for tax1,34048,624Form 4
2026-02-27Becker JoeldirectorWithheld for tax1,126101,960Form 4
2026-02-27Morrell MarthaofficerWithheld for tax35874,964Form 4
2026-02-20Morrell MarthaofficerWithheld for tax3,41275,322Form 4
2025-12-19Fischer Frank MdirectorAward / grant1,431593,351Form 4
2025-12-19Kumar RakhidirectorAward / grant90418,007Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.